board of directors william h. dunlap, chair david alukonis eric herr dianne mercier james putnam...
TRANSCRIPT
Board of DirectorsWilliam H. Dunlap, Chair
David Alukonis
Eric Herr
Dianne Mercier
James Putnam
Stephen J. Reno
Todd I. Selig
Michael Whitney
Daniel Wolf
Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus
Directors Emeritus Sheila T. Francoeur
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
Kimon S. Zachos
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”
Understanding Boundaries
Leadership Seacoast retreat
January 8, 2014
Three trends
Growth
Percent Change in NH Population
8.5%
13.8%
21.5%
24.8%
20.5%
11.4%
6.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data
Coming and going
Net Migration Into and Out of New Hampshire
-20,000-15,000-10,000
-5,0000
5,00010,00015,00020,000
25,00030,00035,000
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Demographics has shaped New Hampshire’s destiny over the past four decades. Over that time, tens of thousands more people moved to the state than left. That population growth resulted in higher education levels, increases in average personal income and higher productivity for the state economy. But that trend has reversed itself in recent years (See pink circle. Data for 2012 is not yet available.) What steps can policymakers take in 2013 to address this slow-down in economic and population growth? Or is such growth even desirable?
Aging
New Hampshire began the 20th Century with the majority of its population under the age of 30 and relatively few aged 60 and older. Watch how that shifts through the decades. Look out especially for the bump that arrives in the 1950 Census – the Baby Boom Generation – and see how they dominate the subsequent decades. (When you’ve watched the entire cycle, through 2010, press the down arrow key to continue the presentation.)
Politics
?
The Left The RightHas Anything Changed?
The NH Legislature in 2009
2009 New Hampshire Senate
NH Senate 24
Members
1014
Republicans Democrats
2009 New Hampshire General Court
NH House 400
Members
176224
Republicans Democrats
The Legislature Clearly Changed
2011 New Hampshire Senate
NH Senate 24 Members
19
5
Republicans Democrats
2011 New Hampshire General Court
NH House 400
Members
298
102
Republicans Democrats
And Changed Again
2013 New Hampshire Senate
NH Senate 24 Members
1311
Republicans Democrats
2013 New Hampshire General Court
NH House 400
Members
179221
Republicans Democrats
Voting PatternsChange
1984
2012
What do these swings really mean?
Agenda: What is the Seacoast?
• Hope you walk away with– A better understanding of ‘the Seacoast’– An understanding of the Seacoast as compared to the
rest of the state– A grounding in the major policy issues you will be
asked to take a leadership role on in the future• Justice, Education, Arts and Culture, Economic
Development, Environment, Government
– An understanding of the tension between regional and local issues and policies
15
• Here’s a basic overview of New Hampshire’s population according to the Census data from 2010. Not many surprises here.
• The most densely populated areas are in the state’s southern areas, particularly Rockingham, Hillsborough and Merrimack counties.
• The highest population centers are in and around Manchester and Nashua, with pockets of density scattered in the cities.
• The North Country remains sparsely populated.
• Total state population increased 6.5 percent since 2000, with 1.3 million people now calling New Hampshire home. But let’s look at how that population has shifted over the past decade…..
• 5 School Administrative Units
Pictionary – Draw the Seacoast
• 3 Hospitals
• 1 Mental Health Center
• 1 Community Health Center
• 1 University
• 3 Economic Development Hubs
• 4 Highways
What Is the
Seacoast?
Labor Markets
Hospital Service Areas
Tourist Regions
Watersheds
Housing Markets
Seacoast Tourism Area
Atkinson MiltonBarrington New CastleBrentwood NewfieldsDanville NewingtonDover NewmarketDurham NewtonEast Kingston North HamptonEpping PlaistowExeter PortsmouthFarmington RochesterFremont RollinsfordGreenland RyeHampstead SandownHampton SeabrookHampton Falls SomersworthKensington South HamptonKingston StraffordLee StrathamMadbury
Large Part of the State
Population 2010
27,642
51,092
132,169
104,287
131,181
279,978
118,111
264,833
207,177
Great
Nor
th W
oods
Whit
e M
ount
ains R
egion
Lake
s Reg
ion
Dartm
outh
/Lak
e Sun
apee
Reg
ion
Mon
adno
ck R
egion
Seaco
ast R
egion
Great
er C
onco
rd
Great
er M
anch
este
r
Great
er N
ashu
a
Merrimack Valley Region
2010 People per Square Mile
19.2 28.1
93.0 74.5112.7
378.6
187.6
655.9
783.7
Great
Nor
th W
oods
Whit
e M
ount
ains R
egion
Lake
s Reg
ion
Dartm
outh
/Lak
e Sun
apee
Reg
ion
Mon
adno
ck R
egion
Seaco
ast R
egion
Great
er C
onco
rd
Great
er M
anch
este
r
Great
er N
ashu
a
How crowded is it?
Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)
$31,358
$43,106
$52,897
$68,370
$54,781
$65,231
$55,237 $56,329
$66,789
Great NorthWoods
WhiteMountains
Region
Lakes Region Dartmouth/LakeSunapeeRegion
MonadnockRegion
SeacoastRegion
GreaterConcord
GreaterManchester
Greater Nashua
Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
14.4%
25.6% 26.0%
35.1%
30.5%
35.4%
33.2%
30.4%
38.0%
Great NorthWoods
WhiteMountains
Region
Lakes Region Dartmouth/LakeSunapeeRegion
MonadnockRegion
SeacoastRegion
GreaterConcord
GreaterManchester
Greater Nashua
• This map details where the growth and loss in population, town by town, occurred since 2000.
• Some obvious points: the biggest increases came in Hillsborough and Rockingham counties. We can also see the influence that Interstate 93 has on population growth over the past decade.
• Other pockets of large increase: the Conway and Plymouth regions, the Lakes Region and the Upper Valley. We’ll return to those later.
• And while nearly every region saw some increase in population, the declines were focused largely on the North Country.
Education
• But while the overall state population increased, the number of school-aged children fell: a loss of more than 22,000 students, or a 7 percent decline since 2000.
• As this map shows, that drop was spread across the state, with a few towns gaining in school-age population.
• But flip back to the previous map. You’ll see that many of the areas that had the biggest gains in total population saw a decline in their school-aged numbers: portions Hillsborough County and the Rochester area, for instance. How might that trend shape discussions about education spending, both at the state and local level?
• More broadly, policymakers will have to consider what steps to take to build the education system in a state where the student population is declining.
Natives?
Population Born in another state (%)
33.2%
49.8%47.8%
50.8%52.8%
58.1%
43.1%45.4%
55.7%
Great
Nor
th W
oods
Whit
e M
ount
ains R
egion
Lake
s Reg
ion
Dartm
outh
/Lak
e Sun
apee
Reg
ion
Mon
adno
ck R
egion
Seaco
ast R
egion
Great
er C
onco
rd
Great
er M
anch
este
r
Great
er N
ashu
a
Merrimack Valley Region
Transportation: Where do people work?
% of workers commuting to out of state jobs
6.5% 7.1%
4.3%
9.2%
13.6%
20.5%
4.4%
13.9%
26.1%
Great
Nor
th W
oods
Whit
e M
ount
ains R
egion
Lake
s Reg
ion
Dartm
outh
/Lak
e Sun
apee
Reg
ion
Mon
adno
ck R
egion
Seaco
ast R
egion
Great
er C
onco
rd
Great
er M
anch
este
r
Great
er N
ashu
a
Merrimack Valley Region
Coughlin et. Al. “Demographics, Destiny, and Anticipating the Future of the Transportation System.
A Dynamic System
Economic Development
Manufacturing as a share of all Wages (2010)
12.2%
9.1%
13.8% 13.0%
18.6%
12.4%
8.3%
12.6%
27.4%
14.6%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Great
Nor
th W
oods
Whit
e M
ount
ains R
egion
Lake
s Reg
ion
Dartm
outh
/Lak
e Sun
apee
Reg
ion
Mon
adno
ck R
egion
Seaco
ast R
egion
Great
er C
onco
rd
Great
er M
anch
este
r
Great
er N
ashu
a
Total
New H
amps
hire
Government, Healthcare and Manufacturing –
Seacoast RegionCompensation by Major Industry - Seacoast Region
3.6%
12.4%
5.8%
10.4%
1.3%
3.5%
9.6%
1.1%
7.7%
3.0%
5.3%
1.5%
12.2%
0.9%
3.5%
1.9%
14.6%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Constr
uctio
n
Man
ufac
turin
g
Who
lesale
Tra
de
Retail
Tra
de
Trans
porta
tion
and
War
ehou
sing
Info
rmat
ion
Financ
e an
d In
sura
nce
Real E
state
and
Ren
tal a
nd L
easin
g
Profe
ssion
al an
d Tec
hnica
l Ser
vice
Man
agem
ent o
f Com
panie
s/Ent
erpr
ises
Admini
strat
ive a
nd W
aste
Ser
vices
Educa
tiona
l Ser
vices
Health
Car
e an
d Soc
ial A
ssist
ance
Arts, E
nter
tainm
ent,
and
Recre
ation
Accom
mod
ation
and
Foo
d Ser
vices
Other
Ser
vices
Exc
ept P
ublic
Adm
in
Total
Gover
nmen
t
Water is not a local issue
Ground Water Systems Analysis
Studies Looking at Needs/ Demand
Wright and Pierce. 1011. “Drinking Water Infrastructure in New Hampshire:A Capital Investment Needs Analysis”
New Hampshire Hospitals30 Minute Drive Time
Healthcare is local but …. ?
Watch NH’s Population Change
New Hampshire began the 20th Century with the majority of its population under the age of 30 and relatively few aged 60 and older. Watch how that shifts through the decades. Look out especially for the bump that arrives in the 1950 Census – the Baby Boom Generation – and see how they dominate the subsequent decades. (When you’ve watched the entire cycle, through 2010, press the down arrow key to continue the presentation.)
38
• The most recent Census numbers help paint a more detailed portrait of New Hampshire’s demographic patterns. In this map, the darker the shade of the community, the older the median age of its residents. (The statewide median age was 41.1 years in 2010, up from 37.1 in 2000.)
• We see here that New Hampshire can essentially be divided into two regions when it comes to age: an older northern half, and a younger southern half.
• But even in the “younger” half, there is a further subdivision, with the eastern region – between Interstate 93 and the Seacoast -- significantly younger than the western portion.
• How might those divisions shape future policy discussions related to health care, education and public spending?
• (White areas of the map are unincorporated areas for which the Census Bureau did not release information.)
• This map plots the oldest segment of the population – those aged 85 and older – town by town. (Statewide, 1.9 percent of New Hampshire’s population was 85 or older in 2010.)
• The darker communities, those with a higher share of elderly residents, will face additional challenges in caring for that population. And as New Hampshire ages faster than the nation as a whole, these communities will pave the way for the kinds of changes likely facing the rest of the state in coming years.
• An older population requires a different mix of social, health care, housing, transportation and other services. How can New Hampshire best prepare for those needs?
What do Baby Boomers Want? Zoning
Page 41
US Economy Alternative Scenarios
• Stronger Near Term Rebound – Jobs and housing grow more than expected (10% probability)
• Slower Near Term – US business confidence drops due to Washington Gridlock & Europe recession worsens (25% probability)
Source: Moody’s Analytics, August 2013
Rochester-Dover
Index of Total NonFarm Employment
92.0
93.0
94.0
95.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
99.0
100.0
101.0
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep-0
7
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep-0
8
Jan-
09
May
-09
Sep-0
9
Jan-
10
May
-10
Sep-1
0
Jan-
11
May
-11
Sep-1
1
Jan-
12
May
-12
Sep-1
2
Jan-
13
May
-13
Sep-1
3
Dec
200
7 =
100
US NH Rochester-Dover
New Hampshire
Rochester-Dover
United States
Portsmouth
Index of Total NonFarm Employment
93.0
95.0
97.0
99.0
101.0
103.0
105.0
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep-0
7
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep-0
8
Jan-
09
May
-09
Sep-0
9
Jan-
10
May
-10
Sep-1
0
Jan-
11
May
-11
Sep-1
1
Jan-
12
May
-12
Sep-1
2
Jan-
13
May
-13
Sep-1
3
Dec
200
7 =
100
US NH Portsmouth
New Hampshire
Portsmouth
United States
44
In this context, where should we invest?
• Health Care• Education/Workforce• Natural and Cultural Resources• Energy• Fiscal • Infrastructure• Workforce Housing• Regulatory• Business Growth and Retention
Public Policy Indicators Compared to Neighbor and Competitor
States
State and Rank Fiscal
Educations and
Workforce RegulatoryWorkforce
Housing
Cultural and Natural Resources Energy Infrastructure Health
Business Growth and
Retention OverallNew Hampshire 17 14 22 31 17 28 27 20 7 13
Maine 31 36 42 29 12 35 33 49 31 40Massachusetts 37 1 41 41 24 20 35 16 2 14Vermont 35 32 31 32 16 24 43 22 11 29
North Carolina 33 11 14 25 26 13 18 30 27 17South Carolina 28 29 17 15 39 33 12 47 30 31Texas 8 16 28 21 48 41 10 38 23 25Virginia 11 4 20 35 19 27 15 9 29 9
Overall Business Ranking
Human Capital Ranking
Workforce Housing Ranking
NH Excels on Current Climate Indicators
Area Indicator NH RankWFHousing Homeownership rates 2Regulatory Pollution Abatement / $ Value Added 3EdWorkFrc High School grad rate 4Cultural Voter turnout rate 4EdWorkFrc Pct of pop in Science & Engineering workforce 5EdWorkFrc Pct w/Associates+ 6EdWorkFrc Percent of children aged 3-4 in preschool 6Fiscal State Business Tax Climate Index 7Fiscal Public health/welfare spending per person in poverty 7GrowthReten Manufacturing Supercluster Concentration (LQ) 7
But NH Lags on Future Climate Indicators
Area Indicator NH RankFiscal Top marginal corporate tax rate 38Infrastructure Percent of bridges deficient or obsolete 39WFHousing Owner costs more than 30% of Income 43Health Health Care Expenditures per Capita by State of Residence, 2009 43Fiscal State debt per $ Personal Income 45Energy Industrial Electric Prices 46GrowthReten Capital Investment Projects per 100,000 pop 46Regulatory Land Use Restriction 47EdWorkFrc Change in 35-44 y.o share of population, 2000 to 2010 48EdWorkFrc Average student debt 50
A Comment on Regions Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
14.7%
26.9%28.4%
36.5%
31.1%
35.1% 35.0%
31.4%
37.6%
Great
Nor
th W
oods
Whit
e M
ount
ains R
egion
Lake
s Reg
ion
Dartm
outh
/Lak
e Sun
apee
Reg
ion
Mon
adno
ck R
egion
Seaco
ast R
egion
Great
er C
onco
rd
Great
er M
anch
este
r
Great
er N
ashu
a
52
Looking forward: The ecology of a successful economy
There’s this …
• Human Capital• Financial Capital• Economic Creativity• Business Base• Costs of Business• Infrastructure• Quality of Life
And then … Brad Feld• A Strong Pool of Tech Founders• Local Capital• Killer Events• Access to Great Universities• Motivated ‘Champions’• Local Press, Organizational Tools• Alumni Outreach• Wins• Recycled Capital• Second-Time Entrepreneurs• Attractive to Engineers• Tent-pole local tech companies
52
53
How does this relate to existing initiatives
• Many initiatives designed to deal with perceived long term issues. – Governor Hassan: Innovate NH Jobs – Former Governor Lynch: The green launching pad– New use of unemployment funds – train individuals to build new small
businesses.– Community College System
• Hypertherm and Community College collaboration• The Advanced Manufacturing Partnership (Albany)
– UNH Innovation – UNH, STEM initiatives (NHCF, Business NH coalition)– Granite State Futures – planning generally – housing and transportation.– Stay, Work, Play.
• Question: Are they working? Is there a problem? – Are conditions getting better/worse?– What about regional approaches
Can you name 5 institutions which help support
informed public policy decisions in the Seacoast
Region?
New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies
Want to learn more?• Online: nhpolicy.org• Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy• Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy• Our blog: policyblognh.org• (603) 226-2500
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”
Board of DirectorsWilliam H. Dunlap, Chair
David Alukonis
Eric Herr
Dianne Mercier
James Putnam
Stephen J. Reno
Todd I. Selig
Michael Whitney
Daniel Wolf
Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus
Directors Emeritus Sheila T. Francoeur
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
Kimon S. Zachos