biscari safe 11 maggio 2012
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This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
The Outlook for Energy
a view to 2040Piero BiscariDirettore Relazioni Esterne e Istituzionali - Esso ItalianaSAFE 11 maggio 2012
ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2015 20400
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
1990 2015 2040
Global Progress Drives Demand
BillionPopulation GDP
Trillion 2005$
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
0.8%
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
2.9%
OECD
Non OECD
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
0.9%
Energy Demand
Energy Saved ~500
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
3
6
9
12
15
1990 2015 2040
MBTU / 2005$ GDPMBTU / 2005$ GDP
-0.9%
-1.9%
Energy per GDPDemand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040
0.9%
Global Efficiency Minimizes Demand Growth
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1990 2015 2040
~500 Quads
Quadrillion BTUsDemand
What demand would be without efficiency gains
0
3
6
9
12
15
1990 2015 2040
MBTU / 2005$ GDPMBTU / 2005$ GDPEnergy per GDP
Constant 2010 Level
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Res/Comm Transportation Industrial Electricity Generation
2010
20252040
Quadrillion BTUs
Electricity Generation Leads Growth
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990 2015 2040
Electricity Demand Continues to Surge
k TWhBy Sector
Transportation
Industrial
Residential/Commercial
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUsFuel Into Electricity Generation
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Coal
Wind
Renewables
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 20400
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 2040
Commercial Transportation Drives Demand Growth
PersonalMBDOE
CommercialMBDOE
Light Duty Vehicles
Aviation
Marine
Rail
Heavy Duty Vehicles
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass/Other Wind / Solar /Biofuels
Hydro / Geo
0.7%
Quadrillion BTUs
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve
2010
2040
-0.2%
1.6%
2.2% 0.3%
6.0% 1.6%
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040
0.9%
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
'10 '20 '30 '40
0
50
100
150
'10 '20 '30 '40
0
50
100
150
'10 '20 '30 '40
0
50
100
150
'10 '20 '30 '40
0
50
100
150
'10 '20 '30 '40
0
50
100
150
'10 '20 '30 '40
0
50
100
150
'10 '20 '30 '40
World Gas Supply
Europe
Asia Pacific
South America
North America
Africa
Russia/Caspian
Middle East
BCFD
Conventional
Unconventional
Pipeline
LNG
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
North America*
Europe OECD
Asia Pacific
Latin America
Africa
Middle East
1000 TCF
Conventional
Unconventional
1.3
4.1
2.6
2.3
8.1
4.9
4.8
Global Gas Resource
Source: IEA; * Includes Europe Non OECD
•World: ~250 years coverage at current demand
•Large unconventional gains anticipated
World
Russia/Caspian*
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
10
20
30
40
1990 2015 2040
CO2 Emissions Plateau
Billion TonsBy Region
OECD
Rest of Non OECD
India & Africa
China
0
5
10
15
20
U.S. Europe China India
Tons per PersonEmissions per Capita
2010
2025
2040
0
20
40
60
80
100
Energy Use Evolves Over Time
PercentGlobal Percent Mix of Fuels
1800 1900 20001850 1950
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
HydroNuclear
Other Renewables
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
2040
Development Challenges and Solutions
World development continues, while lives improve and economies grow
~9 billion people130% increase in global GDP
30% increase in energy demand500 quadrillion BTUs saved via efficiency
All reliable, affordableenergy supplies needed
IncreaseEfficiency
ExpandSupplies
MitigateEmissions
Technology