battleground survey - cdn.americanprogressaction.org€¦ · voters in the 11 key battleground...

Prepared for CAP Action Fund

March 4, 2020

Battleground Survey

Methodology

• This presentation displays the results of an online survey among 1,500 likely voters in the 11 key battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

• This presentation includes an oversample among voters who “somewhat disapprove” of the job Donald Trump is doing as president (n=331).

• The survey was conducted February 6-11, 2020.

• The sample was drawn from an opt-in panel and has sampling error of ± 2.5%.

• The 2016 vote for President in these 11 Battleground states was Clinton 46.8% to Trump 48.6% (Trump +1.8%).

2

3

Takeaways

• The central purpose of this project was developing an understanding of those voters who somewhat disapprove of Trump’s performance as president. Survey data has consistently shown that this relatively small subset of voters could hold the key to the election.

• Voters who somewhat disapprove of Trump’s performance differ from those who strongly disapprove on most measures. Some of the largest differences occur on measures that have implications for message development. Specifically:

§ These voters are more likely to give Trump credit for the economy and “standing up for what he believes.”

§ While a majority believe Trump is corrupt, they are less willing to describe him as a “criminal” or a “crook.”

§ Trump’s corruption, for these voters, is grounded in efforts to enrich himself and undertake favors for his political contributors.

§ To the extent that Trump is viewed as ineffective, they cite his chaotic leadership style and the fact he insults anyone who disagrees with him.

§ Few believe Trump has hurt people like themselves or in their community. To the extent they do, they cite things such as his health care policies and the rising cost of living.

4

Takeaways (continued)

• Like those who strongly disapprove of Trump, a solid majority of these somewhat disapprove target voters believe Trump is more interested in helping the wealthy and big business than working people.

• This shared dimension that Trump does not care about ordinary people is also the most compelling message for these voters who somewhat disapprove of Trump.

• Merging Trump’s temperament and chaotic leadership with outcomes for real people on issues like health care, wages, cost of living and protecting Social Security is a more promising message than focusing solely on Trump’s personality/behavior or corruption. To the extent corruption is a message, it should be less about Ukraine and impeachment and more about his efforts to enrich himself and his wealthy benefactors.

Political Environment

Trump Approval Rating

6

27%

20%

41%

12%47%

53%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% Strongly Approve Somewhat ApproveStrongly Disapprove Somewhat Disapprove

App DisMen 52% 48%

Women 43% 57%

Dem 9% 91%

Ind 48% 52%Rep 90% 10%

Non-White 28% 72%

W Non Col Men 61% 39%

W Non Col Women 54% 46%

W Col Grad Men 52% 48%

W Col Grad Women 39% 61%18-34 38% 62%

35-49 46% 54%

50-64 51% 49%

65+ 53% 47%

31%

9%

41%

8%40%49%

11%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%Definitely re-elect Trump Probably re-elect TrumpDefinitely vote for Democrat Probably vote for DemocratUndecided

7

Trump Re-Elect

Trump DemMen 45% 45%

Women 36% 53%

Dem 3% 93%

Ind 37% 41%

Rep 87% 6%

Non-White 19% 71%

W Non Col Men 54% 36%

W Non Col Women 48% 41%

W Col Grad Men 47% 42%

W Col Grad Women 34% 57%

18-34 29% 62%

35-49 38% 49%

50-64 43% 45%

65+ 49% 44%

27%

20%

41%

12%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%Strongly ApproveSomewhat ApproveStrongly DisapproveSomewhat Disapprove

Trump Re-Elect by Trump Approval Rating

8

31%

9%

41%

8%40%49%

11%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Definitely re-elect Trump Probably re-elect TrumpDefinitely vote for Democrat Probably vote for DemocratUndecided

Overall

DJT Job -Strongly approve

DJT Job -Somewhat

approve

DJT Job -Somewhat Disapprove

DJT Job -Strongly

disapprove

Trump 40% 95% 70% 7% <1%

Democrat 49% 4% 8% 64% 96%

Undecided 11% 1% 22% 29% 4%

47%53%

Trump Approval Rating

27%20%

12%

41%

StronglyDisapprove

StronglyApprove

SomewhatApprove

SomewhatDisapprove

Target Groupn=331

47% male53% female

21% age 18-3424% age 35-4930% age 50-6425% age 65+

76% White13% Black

7% Hispanic2% AAPI

61% no degree39% college graduate

29% liberal35% moderate36% conservative

46% parents

22% city55% suburb23% rural

10

Target Group – Who They Are

Overall Somewhat Disapprove Target (12%)39% male61% female

28% age 18-3429% age 35-4928% age 50-6415% age 65+

68% White15% Black13% Hispanic

4% AAPI

61% no degree39% college graduate

24% liberal53% moderate23% conservative

57% parents

14% city64% suburb21% rural

Specific Attitudes Towards Trump

12

Open End – Trump’s Biggest Accomplishment as President

Economy

Immigration

Keeping promises

Putting America first

Taxes

Keeping us safe

Conservative issues

Foreign policy

Health care

Other

Everything

Overall30%

7%

6%

5%

4%

4%

2%

1%

1%

11%

<1%

DJT –SomewhatDisapprove

Target29%

6%

2%

<1%

6%

4%

<1%

1%

<1%

9%

0%

DJT –Strongly

Disapprove8%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

<1%

14%

0%

No accomplishments

Don’t know

33%

6%

29%

17%

65%

5%

13

Open End – Trump’s Biggest Failure as President

Divisiveness

Personal characteristics

General negative

Immigration

Tweets

Foreign policy

Health care

Corrupt

Environment

Taxes

Other

Everything

Overall16%

16%

6%

6%

5%

5%

5%4%

2%

1%

13%

9%

DJT –SomewhatDisapprove

Target16%

19%

10%

9%

5%

7%

5%2%

2%

1%

14%

6%

DJT –Strongly

Disapprove21%

18%

9%

5%

<1%

7%

4%

6%

4%

1%

13%

20%

No failures

Don’t know

12%

6%

3%

9%

1%

1%

35%31%

26%31%

23%17% 16% 16%

20%

16%19%

15%

20%

20% 21%15%

25%34% 31%

41%35% 36%

40%46%

13%

12%13%

9%13% 12%

12%9%

55%

38%

47%46% 45%44% 46%50%

43%48%

37%

48%

37%

52%

31%

55%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%Strongly approve Somewhat approve Strongly disapprove Somewhat disapprove

The economy

14

Trump Issue Job Approval

National security

Trade policies

with China

Immigration Taxes Social Security and Medicare

Health care

Climate change

-48-31-39-28-22

-84-86-89-82-85

-44

-91

-62

-91

Smwt DisTarget

Strongly Dis

+15

-67

35%

20%

25%

13%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Strongly ApproveSomewhat ApproveStrongly DisapproveSomewhat Disapprove

Trump Re-Elect by Trump Approval Rating on the Economy

15

31%

9%

41%

8%40%49%

11%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Definitely re-elect Trump Probably re-elect TrumpDefinitely vote for Democrat Probably vote for DemocratUndecided

Overall

DJT Econ -Strongly approve

DJT Econ -Somewhat

approve

DJT Econ -Somewhat Disapprove

DJT Econ -Strongly

disapprove

Trump 40% 91% 35% 5% 1%

Democrat 49% 2% 45% 86% 96%

Undecided 11% 7% 20% 9% 3%

55%

38%

Trump Approval –Economy

16

43%13%

16%18%18%

23%32%32%

38%41%

45%Stands up for what he believes

Personal Characteristics and Qualities That Apply to Trump - Positives

Can get things done

Puts America first

Is a strong leader

Has kept his campaign promises

Cares about people like you

Has good judgement

Shares your values

Honest/Trustworthy

Brings people together

None

31%

21%

12%

13%

8%

1%

2%

3%

1%

Smwt Dis -Target

4%

51%

9%

2%

2%

<1%

3%

1%

1%

<1%

0%

StronglyDisapprove

1%

86%

17

32%26%

29%31%32%

35%40%

43%47%47%47%

50%52%Childish

Personal Characteristics and Qualities That Apply to Trump - Negatives

Erratic

Liar

Sexist

Selfish

Racist

Dangerous

A crook

A criminal

Stupid

None

47%

53%

53%

42%

35%

23%

18%

20%

15%

Smwt Dis -Target

10%

8%

92%

88%

85%

85%

83%

74%

70%

65%

65%

StronglyDisapprove

58%

1%

A coward

Failure

52% 85%

59% 88%

18

27%17%18%

21%28%28%

32%37%

44%45%

47%51%51%Standing up to China on trade

Trump – Has Tried to Keep His Campaign Promises

Reducing illegal immigration

Building a wall along the border with Mexico

Reducing unemployment

Improving the economy

Stopping companies from sending jobs overseas

Reducing your taxes

Increasing wages for working people

Fighting corruption in Washington

Protecting Social Security and Medicare

None

35%

31%

32%

24%

16%

10%

4%

2%

2%

Smwt Dis -Target

3%

23%

23%

9%

8%

6%

5%

2%

2%

2%

1%

StronglyDisapprove

1%

52%

Lowering prescription drug prices

Making healthcare more affordable

35% 25%

40% 24%

36%

4% 1%

53%

72%

98%

11%

24%

1%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Overall DJT - Somewhat Disapprove Target DJT - Strongly Disapprove

Trump is starting to change Washington and finally make government workTrump is constantly picking fights and has made Washington worseNot sure

19

Closer To Your Opinion About Donald Trump

Donald Trump - Corruption

20

Top Three Reasons (n=768) Overall

DJT –Smwt Dis

Target

DJT –Strongly

Disapprove

He is enriching himself while president 59% 46% 66%

He was impeached for extorting Ukraine 50% 33% 57%

He has done political favors for his largest campaign donors 40% 41% 39%

He paid a porn star hush money to help his election 33% 35% 32%

His campaign manager and personal lawyer went to jail 26% 34% 23%

None 2% 5% 1%

39%

9% 1%

51%62%

96%

10%29%

3%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


No - Trump is not corrupt Yes - Trump is corrupt Not sure

Donald Trump – Effectiveness

21


DJT –Smwt Dis

Target

DJT –Strongly

Disapprove

He insults anyone who disagrees with him 80% 65% 81%

He doesn’t have a real plan to solve problems 64% 41% 68%

His leadership style is too chaotic 63% 57% 65%

People in his administration keep leaving or getting fired 46% 47% 46%

His constant use of Twitter 27% 39% 25%

Democrats refuse to work with him 6% 17% 4%

None 1% 2% 1%

43%

15%<1%

46% 49%

95%

11%

36%

5%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Trump is an effective president who can get things doneTrump has been ineffective as president and has not gotten much doneNot sure

Donald Trump – Working People or Big Business and the Wealthy

22


DJT –Smwt Dis

Target

DJT –Strongly

Disapprove

His tax cuts benefit the wealthy and big corporations 78% 62% 85%

He is proposing to cut SS and Medicare to pay for his tax cuts 55% 40% 63%

His failure to reduce healthcare costs 42% 40% 44%

The cost of living keeps going up for working families 37% 47% 34%

Wages and salaries are not increasing 34% 36% 33%

He is a Republican 18% 22% 16%

None 4% 6% 2%

33%

7% 1%

55%72%

95%

12%21%

4%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Looking out for working peopleMore focused on helping big business and the wealthyNot sure

Donald Trump – Helped or Hurt People Like You

23


DJT –Smwt Dis

Target

DJT –Strongly

Disapprove

His tax policies 62% 46% 63%

His health care policies 58% 52% 60%

His cuts to Social Security and Medicare 47% 52% 48%

The cost of living keeps going up 46% 57% 46%

His trade war with China 36% 26% 37%

His anti-immigration policies 32% 18% 34%

None 1% 2% <1%

33%

7% 1%

38% 31%

79%

19%

40%

13%10%22%

7%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Helped people like you or people living in your communityHurt people like you or people living in your communityNeither helped nor hurt people like youNot sure

Messaging

32%

38%

39%

41%

41%

% Very concerned

25

42%

36%

40%

40%

22%

Trump’s policies favor the wealthy and big corporations and have done nothing to improve the lives of average working people

Trump is corrupt and has engaged in multiple criminal acts, including extorting Ukraine, steering government money into his personal businesses and making illegal payments to a porn star

Trump can’t even get along with Republicans and he does not even try to work with Democrats, creating chaos and making gridlock in Washington worse than ever

Trump and his administration’s policies have hurt people like me or people living in my community

Trump is more focused on his Twitter account and insulting people than solving the real problems facing American families

SomewhatDisapprove

Target

Concerns About Re-Electing Trump

81%

83%

78%

75%

67%

StronglyDisapprove

26

6%

8%

14%

27%

15%

7%

15%

11%

12%

26%

13%

23%

25%

39%

41%

Ranked 1st Ranked 2nd

Trump favors the wealthy and has done nothing for working

people

Trump is corrupt and has engaged in criminal acts

Trump is more focused on Twitter than solving problems

Trump has hurt people like me or in my community

Trump has made gridlock worse in Washington

60%

73%

22%

26%

16%

Biggest Concerns About Re-Electing Trump - Ranked

56%

39%

37%

33%

25%

SomewhatDisapprove

TargetStrongly

Disapprove

27

Message Hierarchy

Chaos has a PriceThe chaos of the Trump administration is having serious consequences for real people because there is no progress on the issues affecting working families. The cost of living, especially health care costs, continues to increase while wages lag behind. The insults, tweeting, childish behavior and erratic leadership has a cost that real Americans are forced to pay every day.

Prioritizing the Wealthy and Corporate America Hurts Working PeopleThe Trump administration prioritizes the needs of the wealthy and corporate America at the expense of average Americans. From his tax cuts to his healthcare policies to proposed cuts to Social Security and Medicare, Trump has shown he is not looking out for working people.

28

Do’s and Don’ts

• Merging Trump’s temperament and chaotic leadership with outcomes for real people on issues like health care, wages, cost of living and protecting Social Security is a more promising message than focusing solely on Trump’s personality.

• These target voters who somewhat disapprove of Trump do not believe he is starting to change Washington and making government work. On the contrary they believe he has made Washington worse, and in a way that has failed to improve their lives. However, while voters who strongly disapprove of Trump believe he and his administration have damaged the lives of themselves or people in their community, this view is not shared by the target voters who somewhat disapprove of his performance.

• While target voters believe Trump’s policies favor the wealthy at the expense of the middle class, it’s a stretch for these target voters to say that he has been an abject failure, especially on the economy. In fact, they give him some credit on the economy. Furthermore, they rate both the national economy and their own personal economic situation positively.

• To the extent corruption is a message for these target voters, it should be less about Trump’s destruction of governmental norms, Ukraine or impeachment and more about his efforts to enrich himself and his wealthy contributors.

Trump has not changed Washington for the better. He has made gridlock worse.

Trump’s chaotic leadership, insults, childish behavior and tweeting have prevented progress on issues that matter to working people.

Trump’s policies benefit the wealthy and corporations--he’s not looking out for working people.

Trump has failed to help the middle class on issues like health care and wages.

Trump is corrupt and personally enriching himself as president along with his political contributors.

Trump has not kept his campaign promises to protect Social Security, lower drug prices and increase wages

29

Do’s and Don’ts Continued

Trump has been a failure as president.

Trump is dangerous and temperamentally unfit to be president.

Trump’s policies are hurting people and destroying lives.

Trump’s economic policies have been a failure.

Trump is a criminal who engaged in criminal acts by extorting Ukraine.

Trump has broken all his campaign promises

Do’s Don’ts

Appendix

37%

30%

33%

Party Identification

31

45%

14%

41%DemocratRepublican

Ind/Other

Party ID with Leans Party ID without Leans

DemocratRepublican

Ind/Other

Party referenced throughoutremainder of presentation

Impeachment

32

39%

12%

49%

Senators looked at the facts and decided Trump was not guilty

Notsure

Do you think Trump should have been...?

Which of the following do you think is the reason Senate Republicans decided to

acquit Trump?

Senators made a political decision because they are afraid of Trump

and his supporters

44%

5%

41%

10%49% 51%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% Convicted - StronglyConvicted - Not StronglyAcquitted - StronglyAcquitted - Not Strongly

SW Disapprove Target: 60% Convicted –

40% Acquitted

16%

4% <1%

62%66%

95%

22%30%

4%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Overall DJT - SomewhatDisapprove Target

DJT - StronglyDisapprove

Yes No Not sure

33

Will Keep Promise In His Second Term

Making Health Care More Affordable (n=1238)

14% 11%

1%

67%61%

92%

19%

28%

7%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Overall DJT - SomewhatDisapprove Target

DJT - StronglyDisapprove

Yes No Not sure

Increase Wages for Working People (n=1076)

9%

18%

29%

44%

1%6%9%

84%

Trump’s Trade War with Other Countries

34

34%

9%15%

42%

Overall

Goodfor the

economy

DJT –Somewhat Disapprove

Target

DJT –Strongly Disapprove

Badfor the

economy

Notsure

No difference

Badfor the

economy

Notsure

No difference

Good

Badfor the

economy

Notsure

battleground survey - cdn.americanprogressaction.org€¦ · voters in the 11 key battleground...

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