march 28-31, 2004/n=1,000 registered “likely” voters/±3.1% m.o.e. battleground xxiv

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rch 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

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Page 1: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

BATTLEGROUND XXIV

Page 2: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

If the election for President were held today, and you had to make a choice, for which candidate would you probably vote?

Q1

Unsure15%

Other1%

John Kerry39%

Ralph Nader1%

George Bush43%

Page 3: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Q2

Do you feel things in this country are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track?

38%

5%

57%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Right Direction Unsure Wrong Track

Page 4: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Q3

When thinking about the direction of the country – which of the following emotions best describes how you feel – optimistic, satisfied, worried, angry, or are you unsure?

29%

10%

33%

13% 13%

2%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Optimistic Satisfied Worried Angry Unsure Other

Page 5: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Q4

What do you think is the number one problem for the next President to deal with-- that is, what is the

problem that you & your family think is most important for the next President to deal with?

3%

30%

2%

7%

3%

20%

14%

21%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Economy/Taxes

Unemployment/Jobs

Terrorism/National Defense

Education

Health Care

Moral/Religious/Values

Other

Unsure

Page 6: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Q5-8

For each one, please tell me whether you have heard of that person and if so, whether you have a favorable

or an unfavorable impression of him.

47% 41% 10% 2%

26% 49% 19% 7%

52% 39% 8% 2%

51% 46% 3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

George W. Bush

John Kerry

Ralph Nader

Dick Cheney

Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion Never Heard

Page 7: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Q9-10

For each one, please tell me whether you have heard of that organization and if so, whether you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of them.

54% 39% 6%

50% 44% 5%1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

The Republican Party

The Democratic Party

Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion Never Heard

Page 8: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Q11

Thinking about the election for President that will be held in November 2004 – If the election for President were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic

candidate?

Undecided6%

Democrat48%

Republican46%

Page 9: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Q12

Turning to the election for Congress that will also be held in November 2004 – If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic

candidate in your district?

Undecided14%

Democrat46%

Republican40%

Page 10: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Do you feel that George W. Bush has done his job as President well enough to deserve re-election, or do you feel it

is time to give someone new a chance?

Q13

48% 49%

2%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Re-elect New Person Unsure

Page 11: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

50%

5%

45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Approve Unsure Disapprove

Q14

How would you rate the job George W. Bush has been doing as President? Do you approve or disapprove of

the job he is doing?

Page 12: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Q16

Still thinking about the elections in November --If the election was held today, and you had to make a

choice, would you vote to re-elect President Bush no matter who ran against him?

Unsure7%

No56%

Yes37%

Page 13: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Q17

 If the election for U.S. President were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote...George W.

Bush, the Republican, or John Kerry, the Democrat,

Kerry49%

Other/Undecided4%

Bush48%

Page 14: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Q18-26

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

War on terrorism

War in Iraq

Jobs

Taxes

Education

Health care

Social Security

Prescription drugs

George W. Bush John Kerry Neither Unsure

I would like to read you a list of issues that some people from this part of the country have said are

important for the next President to deal with. Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of

handling this issue…President George W. Bush or John Kerry.

Page 15: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Q27-31

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Strong leader

Cares about peoplelike me

Represents my values

Is honest & trustworthy

Says what he believes

George W. Bush John Kerry Neither Unsure

I would like to read you a list of leadership qualities that some people from this part of the country have said are important to them. Please tell me, for each one, who better represents this quality…President

George W. Bush or John Kerry.

Page 16: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Q32A-36A

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Protecting the middleclass

Sharing your values

Improving the healthcare system

Keeping Americaqprosperous

Improving education

George W. Bush John Kerry Neither Unsure

 I would like to read you a list of issues that some people from this part of the country have said are

important for the next President to deal with. Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of

handling this issue…President George W. Bush or John Kerry. (SPLIT SAMPLE A)

Page 17: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Q37A-41A

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Holding down federalspending

Holding the line ontaxes

Strengthening SocialSecurity

Creating jobs

Safeguarding Americafrom a terrorist threat.

George W. Bush John Kerry Neither Unsure

 I would like to read you a list of issues that some people from this part of the country have said are

important for the next President to deal with. Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of

handling this issue…President George W. Bush or John Kerry. (SPLIT SAMPLE A)

Page 18: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Q32B-36B

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Protecting the middleclass

Sharing your values

Improving the healthcare system

Keeping Americaqprosperous

Improving education

George W. Bush John Kerry Neither Unsure

 I would like to read you a list of issues that some people from this part of the country have said are

important for the next President to deal with. Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of

handling this issue…President George W. Bush or John Kerry. (SPLIT SAMPLE B)

Page 19: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Q37B-41B

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

20% 20% 20% 20%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Holding down federalspending

Holding the line ontaxes

Strengthening SocialSecurity

Creating jobs

Safeguarding Americafrom a terrorist threat.

George W. Bush John Kerry Neither Unsure

 I would like to read you a list of issues that some people from this part of the country have said are

important for the next President to deal with. Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of

handling this issue…President George W. Bush or John Kerry. (SPLIT SAMPLE B)

Page 20: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

20% 20% 20% 20% 20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Excellent Good Just Fair Poor Unsure

Q42

In thinking about the economy, how would you rate the current state of the economy?

Page 21: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Q43

Would you say that you and your family are financially better off, worse off or just about the same as you were

a year ago?

20% 20% 20% 20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Better off Worse off About thesame

Unsure

Page 22: March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

Q44

Looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you and your family will be better off financially, worse off,

or just about the same?

20% 20% 20% 20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Better off Worse off About thesame

Unsure