High-resolution Regional Climate Change High-resolution Regional Climate Change Information for Bangladesh to inform Impacts Information for Bangladesh to inform Impacts

assessments, Vulnerability indicators and assessments, Vulnerability indicators and Adaptation policiesAdaptation policies

A.K.M. Saiful IslamA.K.M. Saiful IslamPrincipal Investigator & Coordinator, Climate Change

Study CellBangladesh University of Engineer and Technology (BUET)

Stakeholder Workshop in BUET, Dhaka on 8 March 2012

Background

• Due to many factors such as poverty, unique geographical location, population density etc. make this nation more vulnerable to climate change than any other countries of the world.

• Climate risks now need to be integrated into national development projects and strategies.

• Knowledge on climate change impacts could help taking adaptation measures into national policy and planning processes. 

Climate Change Study Cell

IWFM has established a climate change study cell in 2008.

The vision of the Cell is to establish itself as the premier knowledge center on climate change risk and adaptation for Bangladesh. Launching Ceremony

On March 08, 2009

Chief Guest was Minister of Disaster Management

Activities

• Conducting capacity building training in collaboration with Met office funded by DFID on Regional Climate change Modeling using PRECIS on 14-18 February 2010 and follow-up workshop on 1-3 June 2010.

Capacity Building Training

•  More than 20 participants from various relevant departments of BUET and other relevant organizations such as-– Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), – Department of Environment, Institute of Water Modelling (IWM), – Natural Resource Studies (CNRS), – Water Resources Planning Organization (WARPO), – Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS),– Flood Forecasting and Warning Center of Bangladesh Water

Development Board (BWDB), – Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services

(CEGIS) etc.– Department of Environment (DOE)

• Due to limitation of the space and facilities, it was not possible to accommodate other relevant organizations.

Climate Research

• A research project consists of 14 components was funded by Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MOEF) under the climate change trust fund of the Govt.

• This 2 years project is ongoing which is entitled as “Institutional Strengthening of Climate Change Study Cell at BUET for Knowledge Generation and Human Resource Development”

Research Components• Development of Flood Hazard and Risk maps with Effect of Climate Change

Scenario• Change Review of Warning System for Climatic Disasters• Study on Residual Flow in the Bay of Bengal considering future Climate Change

induced Hydro-Meteorological Scenarios• Adaptation Strategies of GO and NGOs Combating Climate Change Impacts: A

study on Perception of Communities in the Coastal Areas• Impact of Climate Change in Bangladesh: A Multi-Sector Regional Analysis• Improving Energy Efficiency and Emission Characteristics of Biomass Cooking

Stoves by Incorporating Beneficial Aspects of Different Kilns• Impact of Climate Induced Disasters on Gender• A Techno-Economic Assessment of Algae Biofuel Production in Bangladesh• Importance of Green Chemistry in the Synthesis of Nanomaterials,

Supramolecules and Heterocyclic Compounds through Metal Mediated Reactions.• Promotion of Zero/Low energy Built environment concept and practice by

establishing a Multidisciplinary Centre: for knowledge generation and dissemination, through planning, design and development using Low Energy Sustainable methods for creating Built Environment

Need of Climate Modeling

• Climate Change modeling in Regional level is one of the tools which can help to predict possible future climate change scenarios for the nation.

• There is a need for Upazila level high-resolution climate information, taking into account various uncertainties in climate projections for decision making

Objectives

• To generate probabilistic climate change information at 25km resolution for administrative regions of Bangladesh for three time slices into future.

• To prepare, from these model runs, the user-relevant and policy oriented climate change information suitable for decision makers in Bangladesh.

Objectives

• To demonstrate the usefulness of the probabilistic climate projections at local level, the impacts on world heritage site the Sundarbans will be investigated.

• Create awareness of this project and

release a mapping tool containing the key climate change information for Administrative regions of Bangladesh

Regional Climate change modeling in Bangladesh using PRECIS

• PRECIS regional climate modeling is now running in Climate change study cell at IWFM,BUET.

• Uses LBC data from GCM (e.g. HadCM3).

• LBC data available for baseline, A2, B2, A1B scenarios up to 2100.

Topography of Experiment Domain

Scenarios and Models

Experiment ID Description of the Simulation Time Frame Length( years)

adqcm ERA40:Reanalysis 1957-2001 40erain ERA-Interim: Reanalysis 1989-2009 20ncepb NCEP_R2:Reanalysis 1979-2004 25addfa HadAM3P:Baseline#1 1960-1990 30addfb HadAM3P:Baseline#2 1960-1990 30addfc HadAM3P:Baseline#3 1960-1990 30addja HadAM3P:SRES_A2#1 2070-2100 30addje HadAM3P:SRES_A2#2 2070-2100 30addjf HadAM3P:SRES_A2#3 2070-2100 30addjd HadAM3P:SRES_B2 2070-2100 30aenwh HadCM3Q0:SRES_A1B 1949-2099 150echfa ECHAM4:Baseline 1960-1990 30echja ECHAM4:SRES_A2 2069-2100 30echjd ECHAM4:SRES_B2 2069-2100 30echvc ECHAM5:SRES_A1B 1950-2100 150

Key outcomes of the project

• High resolution climate change information for Bangladesh.

• Two case studies-– A Case study on impact of climate change

on the Sundarbans ecosystems to demonstrate usefulness of the high resolution RCM information

– A case study on An Assessment of Present and Future Changes of Hydrological Cycle of Haor Basin Area

• Mapping tool for displaying climate change information at the Upazilla level.

Objectives of this workshop

• Create national awareness about this research project.

• Gather information from the stakeholders regarding their needs and priorities of climate change information.

• Possible future plan of using this high resolution data for combating climate related disasters through their organizations.

Thank you