aviation at a crossroads? agta annual meeting seattle, wa september 22, 2009

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Aviation at a Crossroads?

AGTA Annual MeetingSeattle, WaSeptember 22, 2009 Robert M. Peterson

Technical Fellow

COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY

Agenda

This afternoon’s tour logistics Current Market Outlook Challenges

Airport Airside ATC/ATM Security Economics Environment Airport Landside Other

Closing comment


Factory Tour

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Where is commercial aviation in the US headed?


20-year forecast: strong long-term growth


Air travel growth has been met by increased frequencies and nonstops

Frequency GrowthNonstop Markets

Average Airplane Size

Air Travel Growth

August OAG

WorldIndex 1988=1.00

All routes

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009


RPKs, billions

Region’s Average Growth: 3.2%

Region’s Average GDP Growth: 2.4%

North American air travel growth varies by market

2007 traffic2007 trafficAdded Traffic

2008 - 2027Added Traffic

2008 - 2027Annualgrowth %

4.6

2.5

3.5

3.2

6.7

6.0

6.7

6.9

5.7

6.6

7.4

0 400 800 1,200 1,600

North Americato/from Africa

North America to/fromSouthwest Asia

North Americato/from Oceania

North Americato/from Middle East

North America to/fromSoutheast Asia

North Americato/from China

North America to/fromSouth America

North America to/fromNortheast Asia

North America to/fromCentral America

North Americato/from Europe

WithinNorth America


North American airlines will need 7,690 new airplanes

LargeTwin-aisleSingle-aisleRegional jet

Size category

Market value: $680 billion


2,920 Growth

38%

2,010Retained Fleet

2008 2028

More than half of North America deliveries will be replacements

4,770 Replacement

62%

9,7009,700

7,690

6,7806,780

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Units


North American long-haul routes to nearly double


North America forecast vs. backlog7,690 New Airplane Deliveries2009 to 2028

900 Airplane Backlog2009

27Regional jets

3%

661Single-aisle

73%

203Twin-aisle

23%

12Large1%

3 4890Regional jets

11%

5,630Single-aisle

73%

1,130Twin-aisle

15%

40Large1%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

0

200

400

600

800


North America – Top 10 Airports in 2007

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Atlanta Chicago-ORD

LosAngeles

Dallas/FortWorth

Denver New York-JFK

Las Vegas Houston Phoenix Orlando

To

tal

Pas

sen

ger

s (M

illi

on

s)

Source: ACI


Challenges – Airport Airside

Geography

Technology

Economics


Challenges – ATC/ATM

Technology

Money

Politics


Challenges – Security

100% Cargo Screening (in passenger aircraft bellies)

Risk Management


Challenges – Economics

Current Credit/Fiscal Crisis

Fuel Price volatility

Recession focuses government attention away from capacity for growth


Challenges – Environment

What are the rules going to be?

How does aviation participate cost effectively?


Challenges – Airport Landside

Local Transportation

Land Use

“Green”


Challenges – Other


Final Comments

Growth Will Return – When?

Are we in the middle of the “Perfect Storm?” Will it set the industry onto a new course?

Will there be another one soon?


The next Current Market Outlook

The 2009 version of the CMO is available on our website

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/index.html

aviation at a crossroads? agta annual meeting seattle, wa september 22, 2009

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