atta membership roster as of october 30, 2010

Aaron Ferer and Sons, Inc.

155 Ida Street

Omaha, NE 68110

Whitney Ferer

Tel: (402) 342-2436

Email: [email protected]

Amalgamet Inc.

222 Bloomingdale Road

Suite 101

White Plains, NY 10605

Bernard Silverstein

Tel: (914) 683-5809


American Iron & Metal Co., Inc.

1102 Wade Lane

Duncansville, PA 16635

Dave Colmer

Tel: (814) 934-2272


Amerway Inc.

3701 Beale Avenue

Altoona, PA 16601

Terry Buck

Tel: (814) 944-0200


Apollo Warehouse

4301 Eastern Avenue

Baltimore, MD 21224

Roger Boschert

Tel: (410) 563-7400

Email:

[email protected]

Arkema Inc.

2000 Market Street

Philadelphia, PA 19103

Ray Bruker

Tel: (215) 419-5203


Belmont Metals Inc.

330 Belmont Avenue

Brooklyn, NY 11207

Robert Henning, Jr.

Tel: (718) 342-4900


Patricia Black

55 East End Avenue

New York, NY 10028

(212) 472-5160


California Metals & Alloys Corp.

960 Ardsley Lane

Bridgewater, NJ 08807

Jack Russell

Tel: (908) 526-5515


Canfield Technologies Inc.

1 Crossman Road

Sayreville, NJ 08872

Robert McIntire

Tel: (732) 316-2100


Cookson Electronics AMG

4100 Sixth Avenue

Altoona, PA 16602

Ara Aposhian

Tel: (814) 946-1611

Email:

[email protected]

Coty Enterprises

600 Richmond Terrace

Staten Island, NY 10301

Joseph Coty

Tel: (718) 447- 6900


Electrum Inc.

827 Martin Street

Rahway, NJ 07065

Jack Douglas

Tel: (732) 396-1616


Grant Manufacturing & Alloying

P.O. Box 69

Birdsboro, PA 19508

Joe Guarini

Tel: (609) 404-1380 ext 115


Hallmark Metals Corp

930 Wellington Avenue

Cranston, RI 02910

Steve Kaplan

Tel: (401) 467-8000


Kester

800 W. Thorndale Ave.

Itasca, IL 60143

Sarah Haakenson

630-616-4045

[email protected]

LENOX

301 Chestnut Street

E. Long Meadow, MA 01028

Jon Melhorn

770-418-7547

[email protected]

Madison Holdings

230 Park Avenue

Suite 939

NY, NY 10169

Edward Meir

Tel: (203) 656-1143


MCP Metalspecialties, Inc.

515 Commerce Drive

Fairfield, CT 06430

Michael J. Falso

Tel: (203) 384-0335


Meeker Sales Corp

P.O. Box 303

Old Westbury, NY 11568

Harvey Worth

Tel: (718)-384-5400

[email protected]

Metallic Resources

P.O. Box 368

2116 Enterprise Parkway

Twinsburg, OH 44087

William Griffith

Tel: (330) 425-3155

Email:[email protected]

Nathan Trotter

P.O. Box 369

Sadsburyville, PA 19369

Peter Morris

Tel: (610) 524-1440


New Concepts, Inc.

34208 Aurora Rd. #160

Solon, OH 44139

Sudarshan Sathe

Tel: (440) 542-9510


P. Kay Metal Supply

2448 East 25th Street

Los Angeles, CA 90058

Larry Kay

Tel: (323) 585-5058


-3-

ATTA Membership Roster as of October 30, 2010

ATTA MEMBERSHIP ROSTER (cont).

Phoenixx International

111 Delafield Avenue

Pittsburgh. PA 15215

Brian Helsel

Tel: (412)-782-7060


Reaxis Inc.

941 Robinson Highway

McDonald, PA 15057

Marco Van der Poel

Tel: (724) 796-3130


RVR Metals, Inc.

P.O. Box 212

6072 Route 5 South

Newbury, VT 05051-0212

Jack Anderson

Tel: (802) 866-5000


C. Steinweg Baltimore Inc.

1201 Wallace Street

Baltimore, MD 21230

John Moors

Tel: (410) 752-8254


Totall Metal Recycling

2684 Missouri Avenue

Granite City, IL 62040

Dennis Meyer

Tel: (618) 877-0585


Toyota Tsusho America Inc.

805 Third Avenue

New York, NY 10022

Steve Napolitano

Tel: (212) 355-4145

Email:

[email protected]

Traxys North America

825 Third Avenue

New York, NY 10022

Eric Salomon

Tel: (212) 918-8042


Victory White Metal Co.

6100 Roland Avenue

Cleveland, OH 44127

Steven Salomon

Tel: (201) 585-0747


Vital Chemicals LLC USA

940E. Diehl Road

Suite 110-M

Naperville, IL 60563

Michael Xiong

603-505-3199

[email protected]

-4-

Yuntinic Resources Inc.

2050 Pioneer Ct

Suite 220

San Mateo, CA 94403

Yun Zheng

Tel: (650) 312-9282


For any changes on membership

details or for advertisement informa-

tion, please contact Karen Salberg,

secretary of the American Tin Trade

Association. She can be reached at:

The American Tin Trade

Association

P.O. Box 53,

Richboro, PA 18954

Tel: (215) 504-9725

Fax: (215) 504-9726

Email:

[email protected]

('000 tonnes)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year

Production 67.5 85.0 89.0 81.8 323.2 79.2 85.4 83.0 76.9 324.4

DLA Sales 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Consumption 62.6 76.6 78.7 82.4 300.4 85.4 93.4 85.7 84.3 348.8

Market Balance 4.9 8.4 10.3 -0.6 22.9 -6.2 -8.0 -2.7 -7.4 -24.4

Reported stocks 33.3 36.8 47.4 46.1 46.1 43.7 36.3 30.5 28.0 28.0

Stock Ratio (weeks/con) 6.9 6.2 7.8 7.3 8.0 6.6 5.1 4.6 4.3 4.2

Source: ITRI; E is estimate

ITRI's Global Tin Supply/Demand Balance

************2009************* *********2010E**********

CRU/ITRI PROJECTS 24,400 MT DEFICIT FOR 2010

CRU/ITRI's latest supply/demand balances are itemized below, where a deficit of some 24,400 tons is projected for 2010. We note that the deficit has been brought about mainly by the surge in consumption, (up a whopping 50,000 tons year-over-year, or about 15%), while production has remained basically flat. Next year does not look much better in our view, as we see another deficit forming given what we think will be the continued difficulty in ramping up supply.

Yuntinic Resources Inc. A Solo Holding Company of Yunan Tin Corporation/USA

We have various "YT" Brand Products:

u Tin Ingots 99.9%, 99.99%, 99.999%

u High Purity Solders

u Tin-Based Alloys

u Inorganic Tin Chemicals

u Other Nonferrous Metals

Yuntinic Resources Inc.2050 Pioneer Ct; Suite 220, San Mateo, CA 94403

Tel: 1-650 312-9282 / Fax: 1-650-777-4384/ Email: [email protected]

--5-

** Standard Tin SN 99.95% Min ** Special Tin: Pb .005% Max and .01% Max

Also sellers of: Grade A and Low Lead Tin

Please contact us at: Amalgamet Inc.

222 Bloomingdale Road, Suite 101

White Plains, NY 10605

Telephone: 1-914-683-5809 / Toll Free: 1-888-MINSUR1

Fax: 1-914-683-5810 /Email: [email protected]

AMALGAMET INC.

Exclusive North American Representatives for Minsur SA

Producers Of:

TOYOTA TSUSHO AMERICA INC. 805 Third Avenue

New York, New York 10022

Tel: 1-212-355-4145

Fax: 1-212-355-8098

Toll free: 1-800-334-9343

**Low Lead Tin *** Grade "A" Tin**

-6-

866-470-5763

We Buy:

§Tin & Lead Scrap

§Tin Lead Residues

§Tin Ingots/Anodes

§Tin-Based Alloys

§Other Nonferrous

Metals

§Solder Pastes

We Provide:

§Top Prices

§Pick-Up Service

§Sampling Services

§Waste Stream

Consulting Services

§Mixed Load

Pick-ups

2700 Missouri Avenue

Granite City, IL 62040

www.tmrusa.com

Local 618-877-0585

Fax 618-877-0591

[email protected]

Base Metals Outlook

Fred DemlerHead of Global Commodities

[email protected]

October 2010MF Global UK Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority

1

MF Global UK Limited Disclaimer

This presentation is issued by MF Global UK Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the

Financial Services Authority. References to “MFG” in this presentation shall mean MF Global

UK Limited unless otherwise stated. The presentation was prepared and distributed by MFG for

information purposes only. The presentation contains information and opinions, which may be

used as the basis for trading undertaken by MFG and its officers, employees and associated

companies. The presentation should not be construed as solicitation nor as offering advice for

the purposes of the purchase or sale of any security, investment, or derivative. The information

and opinions contained in the presentation were considered by MFG to be valid when published.

The presentation also contains information provided to MFG by third parties. The source of such

information will usually be disclosed in the presentation. Whilst MFG has taken all reasonable

steps to ensure this information is correct, MFG does not offer any warranty as to the accuracy

or completeness of such information. Any person placing reliance on the presentation to

undertake trading does so entirely at their own risk and MFG does not accept any liability as a

result. Securities and derivatives markets may be subject to rapid and unexpected price

movements and past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

MF Global UK Limited, Sugar Quay, Lower Thames Street, London, EC3R 6DU.

Ring Dealing Member of the LME

MF Global UK Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority

LME

Futures &

Options &

Clearing

Comex

OTC/Swap

FX &

Bullion

Commodities Division, Client Services

Hedge Admin and ControlFASB Issues, w PWC

Producer Hedge Survey

Forecasting MethodologiesTechnical Analysis

Funds and Commodites

Execution, ClearingOnline Access

Futures, OptionsOTC Cleared

IDB, OTC,Matched Principal

Research Reports

Market CommentariesMarket Outlook

Hedge AnalyticsData Support

Hedge SeminarsHedge Consulting

Large Market Share/Access to Liquidity,

Geographic Diversity, Multiple Venue Execution and Clearing Capabilities

Professional Reputation and Service Capabilities

Commodities: Core CompetenciesRANKINGS: 2009 Energy Risk Magazine, 2009 Metal Bulletin

Energy Risk Broker* Rank

Cash-3M, Options, Forwards/OTC

Copper #1, #1, #1

Aluminum #1, #1, #1

Zinc #1, #1, #1

Lead #1, #1, #1

Nickel #1, #1, #1

Exotic/Structures #1

Overall Broker #1 (16/16)

Metal Bulletin Rank

Copper: Best Broker Dealer Futures (#3)

Aluminum: Futures (#1), Carries (#1), Averaging

(#1), Options (#1), Warrants (#1)

Lead: Futures (#1), Options (#1)

Nickel: Futures (#2), Carries (#1), Averaging (#3),

Options (#1)

Gold: Customer Service (#2)

Steel: Voice (#1), Electronic (#1/#2)

Services: Commissions (#2), Pricing (#2), Advisory

(#1), Customer Service (#2), Warrant (#1)

Overall RDM/ABCM/ABM/ACM Rank: #1*broker is non bank, non dealer;including banks/dealers (MFG #4/#5)

6

7

Economic Outlook

8

Global IP, economic growth collapses, recent uptick

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

US WE

JP Total

9

China IP and PMI, slowing, but still strong, and evidence of turnaround

0

5

10

15

20

25

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N

35

40

45

50

55

60

IP PMI

IP % Change PMI Index

10

Global Economic Outlook

Global Economy (G-3)

• Global industrial economy bottomed out in April ‘09 (-21%), recession deeper than expected but recovery

now expected to be stronger than previously forecast; IP forecast: +8.6% for ‘10 & +3.7% for ‘11

• Govt stim progs help but ending, money policy limited with IR close to 0%, deficit issues, Euro financial

troubles create potential global fallout; still, rebound expected in industrial econ, but will be ”jobless”

United States

• Recovery slowing w/ job mrkt stalled, deficit looms, potential deflation, & consumer confidence down; but

income/orders up, equities firm, inventories dn, biz investment soaring; IP: +4.8% for ‘10 & +4.1% ‘11

Japan

• Recovery slowed temporarily with mfg stalled, debt issues, exports slowing, unemployment up; but

deflation imprving, biz profits & consumption up; IP forecast: +16.2% for ‘10 & +3.2% for ‘11

Eurozone

• FR & IT recovery slowed, GR recovery picking up; all EU econ being hit as govt progs phased out; GR/IT

consumption down, FR exports down, GR/FR/IT biz invest down, FR/IT unemp up, IT deficit probs, IT

consumer confidence down; nonetheless, GR/FR/IT manufacturing up, GR/IT exports up, GR unemp

down, GR inventories low, GR orders up

• UK recovery imrpving but expect to slow due to fiscal policy tightening to lower deficit; biz invest down,

inflation up; nevertheless, manufacturing up; Eurozone IP forecast: +5.3% for ‘10 & +3.7% for ‘11

China

• Massive stimulus measures, interior dev spending, demand up, imports up, strengthened currency

11

IP Outlook: in recovery mode with 9% to 4% growth in ’10/’11

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

US

WE

JP

G-7

US WE JA W World

2005 3.3% 1.1% 1.4% 1.9%

2006 2.2% 3.7% 4.1% 3.3%

2007 2.7% 3.5% 3.2% 3.1%

2008 -2.4% -0.9% -1.5% -1.7%

2009 -9.7% -14.8% -22.9% -15.5%

2010 4.8% 5.3% 16.2% 8.6%

2011 4.1% 3.7% 3.2% 3.7%

12

Global IP Forecasts: yr of downgrades, now upside revisions

US/WE/JP Industrial Production

-28%

-23%

-18%

-13%

-8%

-3%

3%

8%

13%

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11

sep 08

nov 08

may 09

mar 09

sep 09

Concensus Economics

dec 09

sep 10

may 10

13

Pricing Review

14

Copper Prices, collapse and recovery, testing highs

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

15

Tin Price Review, sets new highs

$3,000

$8,000

$13,000

$18,000

$23,000

$28,000

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Metals Price Reviews, uptrends but off recent highs

aluminum

nickel

zinc

lead

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

$2,600

$2,800

$3,000

$3,200

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

$300

$600

$900

$1,200

$1,500

$1,800

$2,100

$2,400

$2,700

$3,000

$3,300

$3,600

$3,900

'00

'01

'02

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

$55,000

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

17

Copper Spreads, Spreads Tighten then Ease, Recent Tightening

-$1,100

-$900

-$700

-$500

-$300

-$100

$100

'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Cash-3M 3M-15M

Spreads Tightening

aluminum

nickel

zinc

tin

-$250

-$200

-$150

-$100

-$50

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Cash-3M 3M-15M

-$700

-$600

-$500

-$400

-$300

-$200

-$100

$0

$100

'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Cash-3M 3M-15M

-$1,200

-$1,000

-$800

-$600

-$400

-$200

$0

$200

'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Cash-3M 3M-15M

-$10,000

-$8,000

-$6,000

-$4,000

-$2,000

$0

'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Cash-3M 3M-15M

Price Seasonals, entering a generally strong period

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

J F M A M J J A S O N D J

copper

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103


zinc

90

95

100

105


nickel

96

98

100

102

104


lead

96

97

98

99

100

101


alum

Long Term Prices (High: CP, NI, SN; Avg: ZN, PB, AL)

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Spot Copper

Constant $2010

Current

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

$5,500

$6,000

$6,500

$7,000

'73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

19001910

19201930

19401950

19601970

19801990

20002010

Spot Zinc

Constant $2010 Zinc

Current

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Spot Lead

Constant $2010 Lead

Current

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

19001910

19201930

19401950

19601970

19801990

20002010

Spot Nickel

Constant $2010 Nickel

Current

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

19001910

19201930

19401950

19601970

19801990

20002010

Spot Tin

$06 Tin

Currentaluminum

21

Supply-Demand Balances

22

Copper Consumption, West Improving, China Slowing

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

20062007

20082009

2010

US WE JP RoW China

Consumption Rebounds, China Slows

aluminum

nickel

zinc

tin

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

20062007

20082009

2010

US WE

JP RoW

China

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

20062007

20082009

2010

US WE JP RoW China

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

110%

130%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

US

WE

JP

RoW

China

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

United States West EuropeJapan Rest WorldChina

24

Copper Consumption vs IP GrowthCopper Consumption: Strengthens with Economic Recovery

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

DD - IP Consumption G3 IP

Consumption Rebounds

aluminum

nickel

zinc

lead

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

'98 '01 '04 '07 '10

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%DD - IP

Consumption

Ind Prod

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%DD - IP

Consumption

Ind Prod

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%DD - IP

Consumption

Ind Prod

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

-32%

-22%

-12%

-2%

8%

18%

28%DD - IP

Consumption

G3 IP

Primary Production Starting to Build

copper

nickel

aluminum

zinc

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Refined Mine

16000

17000

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

25000

'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

Cap

Prod

5,750

6,000

6,250

6,500

6,750

7,000

7,250

7,500

7,750

8,000

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Mine

Refined

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Mine

Refined

27

Copper Planned Capacity, Large Builds

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

Oceana

Europe

Asia

LAmer

NAmer

Africa

Primary Capacity Builds

-1,400

-900

-400

100

600

1,100

1,600

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

Oceana

E Europe

WEurope

Asia

LAmer

NAmer

Africa

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

Oceana

Europe

Asia

LAmer

NAmer

Africa

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

Oceana

Europe

Asia

LAmer

NAmer

Africa

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

Column 12

Oceana

Europe

Asia

LAmer

NAmer

Africa

aluminum

nickel

zinc

lead

Production Costs, Price Floors (and Current Prices)

copper

nickel

aluminum

zinc

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Percentile

Costs 2010

Costs 2009

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Percentile

Costs 2010

Costs 2009

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Percentile

Costs 2010

Costs 2009

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Percentile

Costs 2010

Costs 2009

China Balances, Copper/Aluminum (consumption up, imports surge)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500

2,750

3,000

3,250

3,500

Net Ref Trade

Consumption

Refined Prod

Mine Prod

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12

East X (Russia)

East M (China)

Net Trade

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Production

Consumption

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

Russia

Others

China

Net Sales

copper aluminum

China Balances, Zinc, Lead, Nickel and Tin

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

'89 '90'91 '92'93 '94'95 '96'97 '98'99 '00 '01'02 '03'04 '05'06 '07'08 '09'10 '11

East Exports to West (Russia)

East Imports from West (China)

Net Trade (Exports from East)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

-5,000

5,000

15,000

25,000

35,000

45,000

Ref Balc Mine

Refined Consumption

zinc exportslead exports

nickel imports tin exports

Inventory Trends, builds followed by balance/declines

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

Exchange

Producer

Consumer

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

LME Comex

IPAI Shang

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Producer

Consumer

LME

0

50

100

150

200

250

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Producer

Consumer

LME

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

LME

Prod

Cons

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

aluminum

copper zinc nickel

lead tin

33

Copper Stocks, Weeks Use: ratio drops to 4.4 wks

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

'73 '76 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09

K t

on

ne

s

-4

1

6

11

16

we

ek

s u

se

Stocks

Weeks Use

Stocks-Consumption Ratios, rise sharply, but recent declines

aluminum

nickel

zinc

lead

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

'73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09

Sto

ck

s, k

t

-3

2

7

12

17

22

We

ek

s U

sa

ge

Stocks

Weeks

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

'88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Stocks

Weeks Use

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11StocksWeeks Use

0

100

200

300

400

500

600'71 '74 '77 '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10

Stoc

ks, k

tonn

es

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Wee

ks U

sage

35

Copper Inventories 2010 vs Seasonals

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

J F M A M J J A S O N D

1980-2009 Inventories 2010 Inventories

2010 Inventory Changes vs Seasonal Averages

aluminum

-125

-75

-25

25

75

125



-30

-10

10

30

50

70



-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15



nickellead

zinc

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10



37

Supply-Demand Outlook

38

Copper Supply-Demand Balance, balance to deficit

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

United States -6.1% 0.8% -5.8% -18.5%Europe 10.8% -6.5% -4.3% -18.1%Japan 4.4% -2.4% -5.4% -26.1%Other (West) 0.4% 1.7% 1.8% -4.5%Refined Consumption 12,120 11,939 11,681 10,150 10,687 11,039

2.6% -1.5% -2.2% -13.1% 5.3% 3.3%

IP 3.3% 3.1% -1.7% -15.5% 8.6% 3.7%

DD - IP -0.7% -4.6% -0.5% 2.4% -3.3% -0.4%

Mine Production 12,201 12,619 12,575 12,868 12,937 13,590

East to West Trade 337 -879 -833 -2,051 -2,001 -1,963

Total Supply 12,502 11,551 11,733 10,387 10,678 11,002

6.2% -7.6% 1.6% -11.5% 2.8% 3.0%

Reported Balance 156 -50 154 278 -144 -133

Stocks 686 635 789 1,067 923 791

Stocks Usage Ratio 3.0 2.8 3.5 5.5 4.5 3.7

39

Copper Price vs Stocks/Consumption Ratio, overbought …

• current ratio:

- 4.4 weeks

• current price

- $8,100

• copper overvalued

• slight surplus expected followed by deficit

• Forecast: 3.7 wks $1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16Stocks/Consumption (weeks)

2000s

1990s

1980s

1970s

40

Aluminum Outlook, consumption rebound, deficit expected

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Total Consumption 23,152 22,509 18,959 21,934 22,938% Chg -0.5% -2.8% -15.8% 15.7% 4.6%

IP 3.1% -1.7% -15.5% 8.6% 3.7%DD-IP -3.6% -1.1% -0.2% 7.1% 0.9%

Total Production 20,352 20,996 19,281 19,805 20,512

3.7% 3.2% -8.2% 2.7% 3.6%

Net E-W Balance 4,221 5,083 3,146 3,783 3,874

Total Supply 24,573 26,079 22,427 23,589 24,386

Reported Balance 196 1,748 1,777 (119) (387)Reported Stocks 2,960 4,709 6,485 6,366 5,979

Weeks Use 6.1 10.7 17.7 15.0 13.4

41

Aluminum Stocks Ratio vs Price, further builds expected

• current: 15.2 wks

• price: $2,320

• equil: 7 to 9 wks

• Forecast: 13.4 wks

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

$2,600

$2,800

$3,000

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22(Stocks/Shipments) Weeks

2000s

1990s

1980s

1970s

42

Zinc Supply-Demand Outlook, surplus in ’10, deficit in ‘11

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Consumption 7,204 6,906 5,724 6,602 6,914

% Chg -1.2% -4.1% -17.1% 15.3% 4.7%

IP 3.1% -1.7% -15.5% 8.6% 3.7%

DD - IP -4.3% -2.5% -1.6% 6.8% 1.0%

Production 7,184 7,576 7,357 7,859 8,285

6.8% 5.5% -2.9% 6.8% 5.4%

E/W Trade 582 401 (217) 30 18

Supply 7,166 7,079 5,864 6,530 6,829

Reported Balance 31 185 160 84 (21)

Stocks 580 765 924 1,008 987

Weeks Use 4.2 5.8 8.4 8.0 7.4

43

Zinc Stocks Ratio vs Price, stocks in surplus, modest deficit expected

• Current:

- 8.2 weeks

- $2,230/tonne

• Equilibrium

- 5.5 to 6.5 wks

• Forecast

- 7.4 wks

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

2000s

1990s

1980s

44

Lead Supply-Demand Outlook, surplus to deficit projected

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Consumption 5,254 5,093 4,449 4,682 4,844

% Chg -4.6% -3.1% -12.6% 5.2% 3.5%

IP 3.1% -1.7% -15.5% 8.6% 3.7%

DD-IP -7.8% -1.4% 2.9% -3.3% -0.2%

Mine 2,009 2,140 2,030 2,121 2,229

Refined 4,832 4,937 4,559 4,632 4,747

E-W Trade 372 187 5 77 57

Supply 5,204 5,124 4,564 4,709 4,804

-1.5% -10.9% 3.2% 2.0%

Balance -4 40 83 34 -23

Stocks 266 306 389 423 400

Weeks Use 2.6 3.1 4.6 4.7 4.3

45

Lead Stocks Ratio vs Price, stocks not excessive, prices overvalued

• Current:

- 4.7 weeks

- $2,200/tonne

• Equilibrium

- 3 to 4 wks

• Forecast

- 4.3 wks

$300

$800

$1,300

$1,800

$2,300

$2,800

$3,300

$3,800

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2000s

1990s

1980s

46

Nickel Supply-Demand Balanceconsumption firm, mine prod to recover, China imports offset Russia exports, surplus of 80 kt in ‘09 to shift to slight deficits

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

WW Consumption 989 951 736 907 986% Chg -10% -4% -23% 23% 9%IP Growth 3% -2% -16% 9% 4%Consumption - IP -13% -2% -7% 15% 5%

WW Mine Production 1,136 1,056 932 943 991

WW Refined Production 905 871 786 794 839

FFS Trade 138 129 2 84 122

WW Total Supply 1,043 1,001 788 879 960

Apparent Balance 54 50 53 -29 -26

Unreported Balance -16 -19 27 13 7

Reported Balance 38 30 80 -15 -19

Reported Stocks 154 184 264 249 229Weeks Cosumption 8.1 10.1 18.7 14.3 12.1

Weeks Deliveries 9.8 12.7 24.8 18.4 15.9

47

Nickel Price vs Stocks Ratio, Stocks above Equilibrium, Prices Overvalued

• Current Ratio

- 17 wks use

• Prices:

- $24,725

• Equil: 9/10 wks

• Forecasts:

~ 18 to 15 wks2,000

6,000

10,000

14,000

18,000

22,000

26,000

30,000

34,000

38,000

42,000

46,000

50,000

4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Weeks Usage

Nic

ke

l P

ric

e $

/lb

2000s

1990s

1980s

48

Tin Supply-Demand Outlook, consumption recovers, prod up, market deficit

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Consumption 235 212 198 168 199 211

% Chg 8% -10% -7% -15% 18% 6%

IP 3% 3% -2% -16% 9% 4%

DD-IP 5% -13% -5% 1% 10% 2%

Mine 200 194 188 178 178 192

Refined 213 195 198 194 205 219

East to West Trade 9 8 -13 -15 -13 -13

Government Sales 9 8 4 0 0 0

Total Supply 231 211 189 179 192 206

Reported Balance -3 0 -3 14 -10 -7

Total Stocks 36 36 32 46 32 25

Weeks Usage 7.9 8.8 8.6 14.3 8.4 6.1

49

Tin Wks Use vs Price, stocks ratio to decline from 9 wks to <7 wks

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

5 7 8 10 11 13 14 16

50

Funds

LME Volumes

LME Prices

&

Releveraging

But...

51

LME “Client” Volumes: Funds vs Tradeexcludes broker crosses

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10c

Funds

Trade/Other

“funds” account for 60+% of client volumes

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10c

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500Macro

Hedge

0

0

0

0

Convertible Arbitrage Distressed Securities Emerging Markets

Equity Long Bias Equity Long Only Equity Long-Short

Equity Market Neutral Event driven Fixed Income

Macro Merger Arbitrage Multi-Strategy

Other Sector Specific

52

Global Hedge/Macro Funds, $billion AUM

Hedge Funds: “hedge” equity/bond exposures, long or short

53

CTA Assets, $billion AUM

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00'01'02 '03'04'05 '06'07'08'09'10c

Commodity Trading Advisors: registered, trend following, F&O

38%

7%

14%

10%

31%

Forex Financials Energy Ags Metals

54

Index Funds, $billion AUM

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00'01'02 '03'04'05 '06'07'08'09'10c

Index of Commodities, Commodity Super Cycle, diversification

Energy Agric PrecM IndusM

GSCI 66% 21% 4% 9%

DJ-UBS 28% 39% 14% 18%

Rodgers 44% 35% 7% 14%

Merrill Lynch 60% 24% 4% 13%

Average 50% 30% 7% wtd avg 14%

Copper Alum Zinc Nickel Lead

GSCI 45.1% 30.7% 7.9% 10.4% 5.8%

DJ-UBS 42.5% 29.1% 13.5% 15.0% 0.0%

Rodgers 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0%

Oppenheimer 2.4% 2.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5%

Average 23.5% 16.6% 5.9% 6.8% 2.1%

55

ETF/ETN Assets, $billion AUM

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

Q3 06

Q4 06

Q1 07

Q2 07

Q3 07

Q4 07

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q3 07

Q4 08

Q1 09

Q2 09

Q3 09

Q4 09

Q1 10

Q2 10

Q3 10

Q4 10

$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

ETF/ETN:

9%

1%

11%

10%2%

59%

5%

1%

2%

Energy Ex-Energy Petroleum

Industrial Metals Precious Metals LivestockAgriculture Grains Softs

56

SUMMARY: Fund Allocations in Industrial Metals, $ B

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Macro CTA Index ETF/ETN

Funds, Assets Under Management, 2006 – Present, $Billions

57

$1,000

$1,250

$1,500

$1,750

$2,000

$2,250

$2,500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Hedge Funds

$125

$150

$175

$200

$225

$250

$275

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

CTAs

$50

$75

$100

$125

$150

$175

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Macro Funds

$50

$75

$100

$125

$150

$175

$200

$225

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Index Funds

58

Copper Prices, Fundamental & Fund Impact

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

Copper Prices

Funds $ Index

Weeks Use

copper prices, fund index ($AUM, metals) copper stocks, weeks use

59

Aluminum Prices, Fundamental & Fund Impact

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

-1

2

5

8

Aluminum Prices

Funds $ Index

Weeks Use

aluminum prices, fund index ($AUM, metals) aluminum stocks, weeks use

60

Zinc Prices, Fundamental & Fund Impact

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Zinc Prices

Funds $ Index

Weeks Use

zinc prices, fund index ($AUM, metals) zinc stocks, weeks use

61

Lead Prices, Fundamental & Fund Impact

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Lead Prices

Funds $ Index

Weeks Use

lead prices, fund index ($AUM, metals) lead stocks, weeks use

62

Nickel Prices, Fundamental & Fund Impact

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

-30

-27

-24

-21

-18

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

Nickel Prices

Funds $ Index

Weeks Use

nickel prices, fund index ($AUM, metals) nickel stocks, weeks use

63

Tin Prices, Fundamental & Fund Impact

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

-50,000

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

Tin Prices

Funds $ Index

LME Stocks

tin prices, fund index ($AUM, metals) tin stocks

64

1. Global economy recovers from financial crisis

• Stimulus spending slows, deficits, Europe banking crisis, high

unemployment, money policy limited, FinReg restrictions

• China slows but evidence of recovery

• Economic growth slows but IP remains strong

2. Metals consumption surges, capacity builds but output

limited, inventories high but declining, deficits expected

3. Technical trend bullish, but overbought, spreads

tigthening, strong seasonals

4. Institutional demand recovers bolstering metals prices

Economic and Metals Summary

65

Base Metals, Price Outlooksgenerally bullish, favor copper, tin, and nickel

Copper Alum Zinc Lead Nickel Tin

2010 Q1 $7,232 $2,163 $2,289 $2,221 $19,959 $17,209

2010 Q2 $7,027 $2,096 $2,026 $1,950 $22,476 $17,8562010 Q3 $7,243 $2,090 $2,013 $2,032 $21,191 $20,5492010 Q4 $7,875 $2,257 $2,118 $2,108 $23,325 $24,5172010 Avg $7,344 $2,151 $2,112 $2,078 $21,738 $20,033

2011 Q1 $8,250 $2,300 $2,100 $2,100 $23,000 $25,0002011 Q2 $8,750 $2,200 $2,200 $2,100 $24,000 $26,0002011 Q3 $8,250 $2,100 $2,200 $2,200 $23,500 $27,0002011 Q4 $8,500 $2,200 $2,100 $2,300 $23,500 $28,0002011 Avg $8,438 $2,200 $2,150 $2,175 $23,500 $26,500

atta membership roster as of october 30, 2010

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