൲ation and capacity in the period 2004-2010. source: unep ... · chapter 11, #7 © gea 2012 ....
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© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #1
10.2%
14.8%
13.4%
16.2%
25.9%
34.1% 34.2%
3.5%
4.6% 5.0%
7.9%
17.3%
29.4% 29.9%
5.4%6.1%
7.1%8.1%
3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.0%4.7% 5.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Renewable power capacitychange as a % of globalpower capacity change (net)
Renewable power generationchange as a % of globalpower generation change(net)Renewable power as a % ofglobal power capacity
Renewable power as a % ofglobal power generation
Generating Power and Capacity of Non-Hydro Renewables
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #2
Fossil, 78%
Renewable Share of Primary Energy in 2009
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #3
Irradiation outside atmosphere 5450 x 103 EJ/yr
Human energy use: 500 EJ/yr (average 2.5 kW/person; range 0.1~10 kW/person)
The Solar Resource and its Flows on Earth
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #4
Historical and Projected Contribution to Global Electricity Generation
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #5
Electricity Generation by Source
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #6
Global Electricity Generation in the Energy [R]evolution Scenario
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
EfficiencyOcean EnergySolar ThermalPVGeothermalWindHydroBiomassGas&oilCoalNuclear
TWh/
a
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
EfficiencyOcean EnergySolar ThermalPVGeothermalWindHydroBiomassGas&oilCoalNuclear
TWh/
a
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #7
Primary Energy Use in the Energy [R]evolution Scenario
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
800.000
900.000
1.000.000
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Efficiency
Ocean energy
Geothermal
Solar
Biomass
Wind
Hydro
Natural gas
Crude oil
Coal
Nuclear
PJ/a
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
800.000
900.000
1.000.000
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Efficiency
Ocean energy
Geothermal
Solar
Biomass
Wind
Hydro
Natural gas
Crude oil
Coal
Nuclear
PJ/a
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #8
Electricity Generation from Biomass, Select Countries in 2007
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
TWh
per y
ear
USA
Germany
Brazil
Japan
SwedenUK
FinlandCanada
Rest of World
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #9
Primary Biomass Sources and Use of Fuelwood and Roundwood
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #10
Ethanol Production from Sugar and Starch Crops
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
EJ p
er y
ear (
low
er h
eatin
g va
lue)
Billi
on L
iters
per
yea
r
World total
Brazil
United States
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #11
Main Conversions Routes for Biomass to Secondary Energy Carriers
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #12
Stages of Development of Bioenergy
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #13
Main Feedstocks and Conversion Steps for First-Generation Biofuels
SUGAR CROPS• Sugar cane• Sugar beet• Sweet Sorghum
STARCH CROPS• Maize• Wheat• Barley• Rye• Potatoes• Cassava
OIL CROPS• Rapeseed• Soy bean• Oil palm• Sunflower• Peanut• Jatropha
ETHANOL
BIODIESEL
Fermentation and Distillation
Saccarification, Fermentation and Distillation
Extraction and Esterification
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #14
Production Paths to Liquid Fuels from Biomass and Fossil Fuels
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #15
Third-Generation Biofuels
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #16
Projected Production Costs for Biomass to Power and CHP
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #17
Selling Price for Ethanol in Brazil versus Cumulative Production
0
10
20
30
40
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Cumulative Ethanol Production (EJ)
Eth
anol
(pro
duce
r, B
razi
l, gr
een)
and
G
asol
ine
(spo
t, C
IF R
otte
rdam
, red
) Pri
ces (
2005
US$
/GJ)
learning rate:~10% reductionper doubling of cumulative production
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #18
Range of Production Cost Estimates for Second-generation Biofuels
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #19
- 0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Crude oil to gasoline
Curde oil to diesel
PETROLEUM FUELS
Maize, US range
Sugarbeets
Wheat, lignite CHP
Wheat, NG GTCHP
Wheat, straw CHP
Sugarcane, Brazil
ETHANOL
Rapeseed
Sunflower
Soy
BIODIESEL
GJ fossil energy input per GJ final biofuel (LHV)
Low
High
Lifecycle Fossil Energy Use Estimates in Production of Several Biofuels
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #20
Estimated Life-cycle GHG Emissions for First-generation Biofuels
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #21
Estimated Life-cycle GHG Emissions for Second-generation Biofuels
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #22
Global Installed Hydropower Capacity in 2009
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #23
Hydropower Tariff Versus Average Electricity Generation Costs
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #24
IHA Sustainability Assessment Protocol Assessment Tools
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #25
Installed Geothermal Electricity Capacity
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #26
Growth of the Globally Installed Capacity of Geothermal Power Production
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #27
Japan
536 MW
Russia 82 MW
Philippines 1904 MW
Indonesia 1197 MW
New Zealand 628 MW
USA 3093 MW
Costa Rica 166 MW
Kenya 167 MW
Iceland 575 MW
Italy 843 MW
Turkey 82 MW
Portugal 29 MW
Ethiopia 7,3 MW
France 16 MW
China 24 MW
Mexico 958 MW
Australia 1,1 MW
Austria 1,4 MW
Germany 6,6 MW
El Salvador 204 MW
Guatemala 52 MW
Nicaragua 88 MW
Papua New Guinea
56 MW
Thailand 0,3 MW
Installed Geothermal Electric Capacity in 2009
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #28
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
MWt In
stalled
Capac
ity
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year
Worldwide Growth of Installed Capacity of Geothermal Direct Use
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #29
Typical Direct Use Geothermal Heating System Configuration
PLATE HEATEXCHANGER
ENERGY
USERSYSTEM
INJECTIONWELLHEADEQUIPMENT
PRODUCTIONWELLHEADEQUIPMENT
GEOTHERMAL
1300F(550C)
1400F(600C)
1800F(800C)
1700F(750C)
PEAKING/BACKUP
UNIT
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #30
Steam Plant Using a Vapor or Dry Steam Dominated Geothermal Resource
Turbine Generator
CondenserCoolingTower
Air& WaterVapor
AirAir
WaterWater
Steam
Condensate
ProductionWell Geothermal Reservoir Injection
Well
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #31
Single-stage Flash Steam Plant Using a Water-dominated Geothermal Resource with a Separator to Produce Steam
Turbine Generator
CondenserCoolingTower
Air& WaterVapor
AirAir
WaterWater
Steam
Condensate
Direct Heat Users
WasteWaterWater
SteamSeparator
ProductionWell Geothermal Reservoir Injection
Well
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #32
Organic Rankine Cycle Plant using a Low Temperature Geothermal Resource
Generator
CoolingTower
Turbine
Condenser
Air & WaterVapor
AirAir
Water
Pump
Heat Exchanger
Cooled Water
Geothermal Reservoir InjectionWell
ProductionWell
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #33
Cascading the use of a Geothermal Resource for Multiple Applications
RefrigerationPlant
Food Processing
Power Plant
ApartmentBuilding
Greenhouse
Fish Farm2000C
1000C
Cascading to maximize useof the geothermal energy
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #34
Calculated Ground Temperature Change
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Time [years]
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
Tem
pera
ture
Cha
nge
[K]
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
production period recuperation period
∆T
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #35
Global Wind Resource
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #36
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2007 2010 2020 2030 2050
Win
d En
ergy
, TW
hr
YearGWEC Baseline GWEC Moderate GWEC Advanced
Wind Energy Generation
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #37
Cumulative Wind Installed Capacity in Europe
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #38
Top 10 Wind Turbine Suppliers
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #39
Relative Contribution of Generation Types to Capacity Additions in the US and EU
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #40
Development and Size Growth of Wind Turbines Since 1980
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #41
Installed Wind Project Costs over time in Denmark and the United States
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #42
Capital Costs for Installed and Announced Offshore Wind Projects
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Inve
stm
ent C
ost (
2005
$/kW
)
Capacity-Weighted Average Project Investment Cost
Announced Investment Cost for Proposed European Project
Announced Investment Cost for Proposed U.S. Project
Investment Cost for Operating European Project
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #43
Water Bird Flight Trajectories around Wind Farms
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #44
Cumulative Installed PV Capacity, 1995-2009
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #45
Annual Solar Cell Production by Region
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #46
Schematic Cross-Section of a Asolar Cell
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #47
Trends in Conversion Efficiencies for Various Solar Cell Technologies
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #48
Possible Development of Commercial PV Module Efficiencies
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #49
PV Module Experience Curve
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #50
[€/Kwh]
Schematic Representation of Grid Parity Points
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #51
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
mono multi CdTe µm-Si CIGS
2008 2009 2010 2012e 2010
14.4% 14.1% 11.3% 10.0% 11.0%
210-960 MWp 120 MWp 20 MWp
glass-EVA-backsheet
glass-EVA-backsheet
glass-EVA-glass
glass-EVA-glass
glass-PVB-glass
Ener
gy p
ayba
ck ti
me
(yea
rs)
poly-Si: hydropowerwafer/cell/module: UCTE electricity
%: total area module efficienciesecoinvent 2.2 database
26 August [email protected]
on-roof installation in Southern Europe1700 kWh/m2.yr irradiation on optimally-inclined modules
take back & recycling
inverter
mounting + cabling
framing
laminate
cell
ingot/crystal + wafer
Si feedstock
Payback Time of on-roof PV Systems for an In-plane Irradiation of 1700 kWh/m2/yr
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #52
Possible Production and Consumption of CSP Electricity in 2050
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #53
CSP Development, 1985-2008, Project Pipeline by Country, 2009-2014
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #54
CSP Technology Curve and Evolutionary Changes
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #55
Solar Thermal Power Plants
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #56
Two-tank Molten-salt Indirect Storage System
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #57
Customer load profile and power production profile of a CSP system with storage and a non-tracking PV system over 24 hours
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #58
Capital Cost Breakdown for Parabolic Trough Plant
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #59
Super Grid Envisioned by DESERTEC
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #60
Total Capacity of Solar Collectors, 2008, in Top 10 Countries
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #61
Annual Installed Capacity of Flat-plate and Evacuated Tube Collectors
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #62
Applications of Glazed and Evacuated Tube Collectors in 2008
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #63
Active Solar Thermal Technologies, Collectors, and Working Temperature Ranges
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #64
A Passive Thermo Syphon SWH System (left) and an Active Forced Circulation SWH System (right)
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #65
Number of Ocean Energy Conversion Schemes and their Maturity
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #67
Three Technologies to Convert Ocean Current Energy
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #68
Schematic Representation of Mechanisms and Devices to Use Wave Energy
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #69
A Closed Cycle OTEC Power Plant
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #70
0 10 20 30 40
Pumped hydro
CAES
Hydrogen
Long-term storage
costs in $ct/kWh
0 5 10 15 20 25
Pumped hydro
CAES
Hydrogen
Load leveling
costs in $ct/kWh
Electricity Storage Costs for Different Storage Options
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #71
Integration of Renewables and Electric Vehicles into a Supply System
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #72
Concept of a HVDC-based Transcontinental “Super-grid”
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #73
The Renewable Combi-Plant
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #74
Renewable Energy Mix of the Combi-Plant: Simulation for 2006
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #75
Development of District Heat in Various Parts of the World, 1992-2003
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #76
Renewable Heating and Cooling System in the Renewable Energy House, Brussels, Belgium
wood pellets(major energy
source in winter)
wood pellets(major energy
source in winter)
solar radiation(back-up in
winter)
solar radiation(back-up in
winter)
geothermal heat(major energy
source in winter)
geothermal heat(major energy
source in winter)
biomass woodboiler
biomass woodboiler
solar thermalcollector
solar thermalcollector
4 geothermal loops &
heat pump
4 geothermal loops &
heat pump
4000 l heat storage tank4000 l heat storage tank
1000 l heat storage tank1000 l heat storage tank
heat exchangerin ventilation
system
heat exchangerin ventilation
systemradiatorsradiators radiatorsradiators
solar radiation(major energy
source in summer)
solar radiation(major energy
source in summer)
wood pellets(back-up in
summer)
wood pellets(back-up in
summer)
biomass woodboiler
biomass woodboiler
solar thermalcollector
solar thermalcollector
4000 l heat storage tank4000 l heat storage tank
air conditioningair conditioning geothermal loops
geothermal loops
absorptioncooling machine
absorptioncooling machine
Con
vers
ion
Use
Stor
age
Con
vers
ion
Ener
gy
sour
ce
winter heating circuit summer cooling circuit
excess lowgrade heatcooling
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #77
Financial New Investments in New Renewable Energy
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Fina
ncia
l New
inve
stm
ents
(U
S$ b
illio
ns 2
005)
Marine
Geothermal
Small Hydro
Biomass &waste
Biofuels
Solar
Wind
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #78
Investments in Larger-scale Hydropower, 2004-2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Glo
bal I
nves
tmen
t (U
S$ b
illio
ns 2
005)
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #79
New Financial Investments in Renewable Energy, By Region, 2004-2010
4 10
24 27 29
17 26
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
North America
9
18 26
44 42 40
30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Europe
6 11
18 24
31
40
51
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Asia &Oceania
1 3 5 7 14
8 11
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
South America
0 0 1 1 2 2 4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Middle East&Africa
© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 11, #80
Global Transactions in Renewable Energy in 2010
2 35 3
13 25
- 5
110
52 182
50 231
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inve
stm
ents
, US$
2005
, Bill
ions