"assessing emerging technology and futures capacity for your organization
TRANSCRIPT
Assessing Emerging Technology and Assessing Emerging Technology and Futures Capacity for Your OrganizationFutures Capacity for Your Organization
Presented by: Bryan Alexander
1.Introductions2.Delphi method3.Environmental scanning4.Trend analysis5.Scenarios6.Implementation in your organization
Plan for the workshopPlan for the workshop
1. Cold War: RAND and Shell2. Growth of
futures/futurology3. Business, government
Historical sketchHistorical sketch
• Assemble experts • Structured queries• Reiterated assessments
2. Delphi method
1. Introductions2. Delphi method3. Environmental scanning4. Trend analysis5. Scenarios6. Implementation in your organization
Plan for the workshopPlan for the workshop Horizon ReportsHorizon Reports
Higher EducationHigher Education K-12 EducationK-12 Education
MuseumsMuseumsLibrariesLibraries
European Union (K-12) European Union (K-12) Latin America (Higher Ed)Latin America (Higher Ed)
Regional/Sector Technology Regional/Sector Technology OutlooksOutlooks
Australia / New Zealand / BrazilAustralia / New Zealand / BrazilIreland / UK / Norway / Singapore / AsiaIreland / UK / Norway / Singapore / Asia
China / Scandinavia / Int’l Schools China / Scandinavia / Int’l Schools Training / eLearning / STEM / Community Training / eLearning / STEM / Community
CollegesColleges
The NMC Horizon Project
55 Editions55 Editions75+ 75+
TranslationsTranslations14 Years of Global Research into Emerging 14 Years of Global Research into Emerging
Technology UptakeTechnology Uptake
POLICYPOLICYLEADERSHIPLEADERSHIP
PRACTICEPRACTICE
LONG-TERM IMPACT> Advancing Cultures of Innovation> Rethinking How Institutions Work
[ KEY
TRE
NDS
]
MID-TERM IMPACT> Growing Focus On Measuring Learning> Increasing Use of Blended Learning Designs
SHORT-TERM IMPACT> Redesigning Learning Spaces
> Shift to Deeper Learning Approaches
[ SIG
NIFI
CANT
CHA
LLEN
GES
]SOLVABLE> Blending Formal + Informal Learning> Improving Digital Literacy
DIFFICULT> Competing Models of Education> Personalizing Learning
WICKED> Balancing Our Connected + Unconnected Lives> Keeping Education Relevant
[ DEV
ELOP
MEN
TS IN
TEC
H ]
NEAR-TERM: 1 YR OR LESS> Bring Your Own Device (BYOD)> Learning Analytics + Adaptive Learning
> Augmented + Virtual Reality> Makerspaces
MID-TERM: 2-3 YRS
FAR-TERM: 4-5 YRS> Affective Computing> Robotics
1. Which developments in technology are most likely to have the largest impact on
education over the next five years?
2. What are the most significant challenges facing education and technology?
3. Which significant trends will have the greatest influence on how education and
technology work in the near future?
Horizon prompts exercise
• Can you use Horizon and others?• Can you build your own?
On campus
• Present-oriented, seeking seeds of future
• Multiple, diverse sources• “So what?” Analysis
3. Environmental scanning
SocialTechnologicalEconomicalEducational Political
STEEP framework
• What are your sources?• How do you share what you discover?• How does reflection shape your planning?
Key questions to start on
1.Identify 2 stories from past 3 months2.1 personal, 1 professional3.Note source
EXERCISE
Once you have discerned possible future-suggestive stories, what do you do with them?
4. Trend analysis
•What do they signal about a possible future?
•What trends do they indicate?•How do they connect with your thinking?•How do they intersect?
4. Trend analysis
Back to environmental scan. Break out trends.
EXERCISE
5. Scenarios
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jamais_cascio/3991366442/
1.Narratives compel2.Creativity for everyone3.Role playing4.Can be very low cost
AdvantagesAdvantages
1.Time consuming2.Can be costly3.May seem too touchy-feely, too speculative
CostsCosts
1.Role playing2.Simpler: how does your life
change?3.Group or individual/small group
creation
How to use?How to use?
1.Peak Higher Education2.Health Care Nation3.Tutor me, Siri4.Renaissance
Sample scenariosSample scenarios
Academia experiences a serious correction
Peak higher educationPeak higher education
The bubble burstThe bubble burst
://research.studentclearinghouse.org/
Grad programs checkedGrad programs checked
•Demographic decline•Accelerated prices + sunk costs•Low public funding•Alternatives rising
Perfect stormPerfect storm
•Fewer, less crowded campuses•Very international student body•Low-cost programs ($10K BA)
How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?
•Increased remedial programs
•College generally seen as job training
How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?
More alternatives: Maker movement expands More DIY learning,
unschooling
How does this impact learning?How does this impact learning?
•Vocational tech classes are widespread in K-12
•Apprenticeships are accepted in career paths
•Colleges have always been transnational
Medical sector grows into leading US industry
45% of GDP
II: II: Health care nationHealth care nation
Aging population
A new economyA new economy
• Byzantine finances• Treatment improvements• Greater presence in society• Baumol’s disease
A new economyA new economy
• More programs, more people, more tech
• Increased feminization of student body
• Space sharing w/clinics + hospitals
How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?
• Some took premed-themed classes in high school
• Medical heroes loom as large as sports figures
• Many already familiar with eldercare practices
• Tutoring software
• Commodity and enterprise versions
III. Tutor me, SiriIII. Tutor me, Siri
• Continuous developments in AI, HCI, learning science
• Commercial, governmental, academic projects
• Open education to draw upon
How it happenedHow it happened
• Two Cultures implementation divide
• Boom in CS, robotics departments
• Scholarship battles
Higher education landscape
• Further adjunctification• F2f undergrad, grad
enrollments drop• Math Emporium model
Higher education landscape
• Expanded study halls in high school• Beloved tutors carried to college,
life• Value humans for eccentricity,
style
IV. RenaissanceIV. Renaissance
Gaming world
• Median age of gamers shoots past 30• Industry size comparable to music• Impacts on hardware, software,
interfaces, other industries• Large and growing diversity of platforms,
topics, genres, niches, players
Gaming as part of mainstream cultureGaming as part of mainstream culture
Games serious, public, and political
• Oiligarchy, Molle Industries• Jetset, Persuasive Games• The Great Shakeout, California• DimensionM, Tabula Digita
Classroom and courses Curriculum content Delivery mechanism Creating games
Peacemaker, Impact GamesRevolution (via Jason Mittell)
Classroom and courses Curriculum content Delivery mechanism Creating games
Peacemaker, Impact GamesRevolution (via Jason Mittell)
Game studies as academic fieldGame studies as academic field•Joost Raessens and Jeffrey Goldstein, eds, Handbook of Computer Game Studies (MIT, 2005)•Frans Mayra, An Introduction to Game Studies (Sage, 2008)•Pat Harrigan and Noah Wardrip-Fruin, eds. Third Person: Authoring and Exploring Vast Narratives (MIT, 2009)
Use games to impact society
•Changes in hardware, software•Part of undergraduate life•Learning content, both informal and formal
•Career paths
Some impacts on campusesSome impacts on campuses
• Accreditation: drives project-based, studio-style pedagogy
• Libraries: rare and/or smaller• Professional development: distance, DiY• Faculty multimedia production is the norm
• Both sides of the API
Higher education landscape:
•War on IP rages•Nostalgia waves for old media
•Competing storytelling schools
• Most students identified with one+ game characters in K-12
• Leading game developers are as well known as movie directors
• Most of their work and school is gamified
1.Peak Higher Education2.Health Care Nation3.Tutor me, Siri4.Renaissance
How does your life change?How does your life change?
1.Select one trend2.Build a world around it
A.Think STEEPB.Think campusesC.Imagine your students
EXERCISE 1EXERCISE 1
1.Pick the most unstable, hard to predict trend.2.Describe its polar extreme possibilities.3.Pick another trend.4.Do #2 on it.
EXERCISE EXERCISE
Each trend one axis
EXERCISE
What is your current futuring capacity?
•Individuals•Practices•Local resources
6. Back to campus
What are your external resources?•Collaborations•Online•Professional organizations
6. Back to campus
•Support futures-oriented people•Try out one of these methods•Hold planning/vision sessions•Share news, fiction
How to develop
•Ad hoc or formal group?•“ “ “ “ process?•Partner locally•“ externally
How to develop
1. Introductions2. Delphi method3. Environmental scanning4. Trend analysis5. Scenarios6. Implementation in your organization
Plan for the workshopPlan for the workshop
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