are the aero stocks done? · 2018. 4. 14. · airbus a320 family 415 ... a350 78 (31) 27 230 (62)...

Gautam Khanna, Senior Analyst and Managing Director

September 21-24, 2014 • Hilton Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA

Are The Aero Stocks Done?

Investor Perspectives



Macro Backdrop Remains Decent • Low interest rates & high oil prices

– Support replacement demand

– New aircraft models a stimulant

• Airlines are profitable

– Industry profits near $19B in C14, per IATA

– Load factors at near 80%

2

2

Cowen and CompanyEquity Research September 2014



Favorable Indicators IATA Profitability Forecast Improves On Stronger Revenues

$17.3

$7.5 $6.1

$12.9

$16.4

$19.7 $18.7

$18.0

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Sep-13E Dec-13E Mar-14E Jun-14E

Industry Net Income ($B)

2014 Forecast

3 3



Large Backlog Appears Diversified • 7+ years of backlog

• Widebodies comprise 24% of the backlog

• Broad geographic diversification

4 4




Widebody Mix Shift & New Product

5

Thru Aug Thru Aug Thru Aug

2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4

Boe ing

737 486 551 1,124 1,046 187 2,186 2,365 3,074 3,680 1,789 376 371 415 440 315

737MAX 456 2,219

747 (1) (1) 1 12 1 107 97 67 55 46 0 9 31 24 10

767 3 42 22 2 0 50 72 68 49 48 12 20 26 21 1

777 46 200 68 113 259 253 380 365 380 287 74 73 83 98 66

777X 220 286

787 (4) 13 (12) 182 18 847 857 799 916 865 0 3 46 65 69

To ta l 5 3 0 8 0 5 1 ,203 1 ,355 1 ,141 3 ,443 3 ,771 4 ,373 5 ,080 5 ,540 4 6 2 4 7 6 6 0 1 6 4 8 4 6 1

% Twin Aisle 8% 32% 7% 23% 24% 37% 37% 30% 28% 22% 19% 22% 31% 32% 32%

% Chg Y/Y 273% 52% 49% 13% 2% 10% 16% 16% (4%) 3% 26% 8%

Thru Aug Thru Aug Thru Aug

Ai rbus

A320 Family 415 1,348 739 1,162 94 2,418 3,345 3,629 4,298 1,483 400 421 455 493 306

A320neo Family 647 3,250

A330 51 85 58 69 29 358 349 306 267 230 87 87 101 108 66

A340 0 (2) 0 0 0 4 2 0 0 0 3 4 2 0 0

A350 78 (31) 27 230 (62) 583 555 582 812 750 0 0 0 0 0

A380 34 19 9 42 14 193 186 165 182 179 20 26 30 25 17

To ta l 5 7 8 1 ,419 8 3 3 1 ,503 7 2 2 3 ,556 4 ,437 4 ,682 5 ,559 5 ,892 5 1 0 5 3 8 5 8 8 6 2 6 3 8 9

% Twin Aisle 28% 5% 11% 23% (3%) 32% 25% 22% 23% 20% 22% 22% 23% 21% 21%

% Chg Y/Y 113% 146% (41%) 80% 2% 25% 6% 19% 2% 5% 15% 6%

Tota l 1 ,108 2 ,224 2 ,036 2 ,858 1 ,863 6 ,999 8 ,208 9 ,055 10 ,639 11 ,432 9 7 2 1 ,014 1 ,189 1 ,274 8 5 0

% Twin Aisle 19% 15% 8% 23% 14% 34% 30% 26% 25% 21% 20% 22% 27% 27% 27%

% Chg Y/Y 168% 101% (8%) 40% 2% 17% 10% 17% (1%) 4% 17% 7%

De l i ve r i e sBack l ogNe t O rde rs

5




7+ years of backlog Backlog 2014 Production Years of

31-Aug Rate/Month Backlog Production Plans/Issues

Boeing

737 4,008 40 8.4 - Move to 42/month in 2014, 47 in 2017, 52 in 2018

747 46 1.5 2.6 - Pared backed in October 2013; keyed to cargo market

767 48 0.5 8.0 - Transition to KC-46A

777 573 8.3 5.8

787 865 10 7.2

Total 5,540

Airbus

A320 4,733 45 9.6 - Hold 42/month until after Neo EIS in 2015, up to 46 by Q2:16

A330 230 10 2.1 - 787-10 is a threat

A350 750 NMF NMF - Plan 10/month four years after EIS

A380 179 2.5 6.5 - Plan 25-30/year in 2014

Total 5,892

- Current plan is flat; 777X/A350-1000 are L T threats

- Plan 12/month in '16; 14/mo. “later in decade”

6 6




Large Backlog Appears Diversified

7 7




China May Still Be A Buyer China Fleet Growth China's China's China's

China Backlog Total BA Airbus Fleet Size Fleet GrowthChg # of a/c Backlog New OrdersDeliveries

Air China 51 34 17 2001 535

Air China Cargo 3 3 0 2002 585 9.3% 50

CALC 33 0 33 2003 653 11.6% 68 57

Capital Airlines 4 0 4 2004 730 11.8% 77 62

CASGC 1 0 1 2005 853 16.8% 123 261 106

China Eastern 72 42 30 2006 1,005 17.8% 152 673 204 140

China Southern Airlines 35 12 23 2007 1,148 14.2% 143 763 181 135

Hainan Airlines 11 2 9 2008 1,256 9.4% 108 859 159 118

ICBC 62 0 62 2009 1,411 12.3% 155 713 16 158

JUNEYAO AIRLINES 1 0 1 2010 1,572 11.4% 161 675 77 180

Kunming Airlines 1 1 0 2011 1,732 10.2% 160 633 69 176

Okay Airways 18 18 0 2012 1,924 11.1% 192 584 93 201

SHENZHEN AIRLINES 2 0 2 2013 2,135 11.0% 211 247 31 266

SICHUAN AIRLINES 3 0 3 2014E 2,284 7.0% 149

TIBET AIRLINES 1 0 1 2015E 2,444 7.0% 160

Xiamen Airlines 15 15 0 2016E 2,591 6.0% 147

313 127 186 2017E 2,746 6.0% 155

41% 59% 2018E 2,911 6.0% 165

% Of Total Backlog 2.7% 2.3% 3.2% 2019E 3,057 5.0% 146

2020E 3,210 5.0% 153

2016-2020 Total 765

8 8




Softer Book To Ship Metrics Ahead • Book/Ship has averaged 1.8x since C07

• “New” products known & orders placed

• Production (Denominator) is rising

• Major replacement orders already placed

9 9




Book/Ship Averaged 1.8x Since C07

0.0x

0.5x

1.0x

1.5x

2.0x

2.5x

3.0x

3.5x

4.0x

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Book-Bill

Airbus Boeing

10 10




>1 Book to Ship = Stock Performance

11 11




Possible Froth In Airbus NB Backlog? AB/BA Backlog By Age Of Airline A320

Total % Total Family 737 % A320 % 737

Less than 5 years 337 3% 255 32 5% 1%

Less than 10 years 993 9% 643 268 14% 7%

More than 10 years 8,665 76% 3,416 2,796 72% 70%

Other 1,437 13% 419 912 9% 23%

Total 11,432 100% 4,733 4,008 100% 100%

AB/BA Backlog By Customer Type A320

Total % Total Family 737 % A320 % 737

Cargo 73 1%

Flagship 3,948 35% 1,213 796 26% 20%

LCC 2,941 26% 1,671 1,169 35% 29%

Lessor 2,006 18% 1,051 644 22% 16%

Other 1,453 13% 424 919 9% 23%

Regional 1,011 9% 374 480 8% 12%

Total 11,432 100% 4,733 4,008 100% 100%

12 12




Boeing Backlog Is Relatively Balanced AB/BA Backlog By Region/Type A320

Total % Total Family 737 % A320 % 737 A350 787 % A350 % 787

Asia Pacific 2,742 24% 1,417 573 30% 14% 244 222 33% 26%

Cargo 67 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Europe 1,814 16% 776 638 16% 16% 138 136 18% 16%

Latin America 603 5% 329 186 7% 5% 40 42 5% 5%

Leasing 1,939 17% 1,008 632 21% 16% 74 153 10% 18%

MEA 1,145 10% 210 174 4% 4% 190 143 25% 17%

North America 1,737 15% 613 893 13% 22% 63 148 8% 17%

Other 1,385 12% 380 912 8% 23% 1 21 0% 2%

Total 11,432 100% 4,733 4,008 100% 100% 750 865 100% 100%

13 13




Top 20 Customers Are 40% of Backlog Backlog as Total

Fleet Size % of Fleet Backlog

Lion Air 104 503% 523

American Airlines 628 62% 387

Emirates 229 128% 292

Southwest Airlines 677 42% 286

AIRASIA 79 334% 264

Norwegian 92 271% 249

UNITED AIRLINES 700 33% 230

Etihad Airways 103 208% 214

Qatar Airways 134 158% 212

Turkish Airlines 233 90% 210

Lufthansa 282 66% 187

INDIGO 80 230% 184

Ryanair 304 59% 180

Delta Air Lines 777 19% 147

EASYJET 226 64% 144

Qantas 124 97% 120

All Nippon Airways 185 59% 110

Singapore Airlines 104 106% 110

SPIRIT AIRLINES 58 186% 108

JETBLUE AIRWAYS 199 54% 107

4,264

Top 20 Customers = 37%

Ex-Unknown = 42%

14 14




Higher Than Historic % Replacement Top 20 Customers Total Replace- % Replace-

Cowen Estimates Backlog ment Growth ment % Growth

Lion Air 523 3 520 1% 99%

American Airlines 387 387 0 100% 0%

Emirates 292 34 258 12% 88%

Southwest Airlines 286 165 121 58% 42%

AIRASIA 264 85 179 32% 68%

Norwegian 249 8 241 3% 97%

UNITED AIRLINES 230 200 30 87% 13%

Etihad Airways 214 0 214 0% 100%

Qatar Airways 212 33 179 16% 84%

Turkish Airlines 210 40 170 19% 81%

Lufthansa 187 187 0 100% 0%

INDIGO 184 0 184 0% 100%

Ryanair 180 60 120 33% 67%

Delta Air Lines 147 147 0 100% 0%

EASYJET 144 45 99 31% 69%

Qantas 120 40 80 33% 67%

All Nippon Airways 110 95 15 86% 14%

Singapore Airlines 110 110 0 100% 0%

SPIRIT AIRLINES 108 24 84 22% 78%

JETBLUE AIRWAYS 107 15 92 14% 86%

4264 1678 2586 39% 61%

15 15




Rising Overcapacity Worries • Middle East capacity growth may encroach on

European carrier yields

– Profit warnings from Air France, Lufthansa

– Absence of major airline consolidation in Europe

• Potential Boeing/Airbus narrowbody rate hikes

16 16




Rising Overcapacity Worries – Gulf Big 3 Gulf Big Three Airline Growth Has Been Great – 20% RPK CGR Since 2006

Pass.

(MM)

RPK (MM) ASK

(MM)

Load

Factor

Pass.

Growth

RPK Growth ASK

Growth

Ch In

LF Cal Year Emirates Etihad Qatar Total Emirates Etihad Qatar Total

2006 23.3 62,260 12,024 25,766 100,051 135,997 73.6% - - - - - - -

2007 30.1 77,947 20,438 35,544 133,928 178,602 75.0% 29.4% 25.2% 70.0% 37.9% 33.9% 31.3% 1.4%

2008 37.2 94,346 26,665 44,442 165,453 209,535 79.0% 23.5% 21.0% 30.5% 25.0% 23.5% 17.3% 4.0%

2009 41.0 101,762 27,800 53,722 183,284 242,678 75.5% 10.2% 7.9% 4.3% 20.9% 10.8% 15.8% (3.4%)

2010 48.6 126,273 33,400 64,392 224,065 289,204 77.5% 18.3% 24.1% 20.1% 19.9% 22.3% 19.2% 2.0%

2011 58.3 160,446 38,700 75,546 274,692 346,120 79.4% 20.0% 27.1% 15.9% 17.3% 22.6% 19.7% 1.9%

2012 66.7 188,600 48,000 81,394 317,994 399,771 79.5% 14.4% 17.5% 24.0% 7.7% 15.8% 15.5% 0.2%

2013 74.0 215,353 55,500 87,037 357,890 451,851 79.2% 11.0% 14.2% 15.6% 6.9% 12.5% 13.0% (0.3%)

CAGR: 18.0% 19.4% 24.4% 19.0% 20.0% 18.7%

17 17




Rising Overcapacity Worries – Gulf Big 3 Gulf Big Three RPK Growth Has Been 5X That Of Other IATA Airlines Since 2006

% Growth In RPK's

Cal Year IATA Mideast 3 % IATA Other Mideast Other Total

2006 4,180,676 100,051 2.4% 4,080,625

2007 4,515,130 133,928 3.0% 4,381,202 33.9% 7.4% 8.0%

2008 4,623,493 165,453 3.6% 4,458,040 23.5% 1.8% 2.4%

2009 4,568,669 183,284 4.0% 4,385,386 10.8% -1.6% -1.2%

2010 4,934,163 224,065 4.5% 4,710,098 22.3% 7.4% 8.0%

2011 5,245,014 274,692 5.2% 4,970,322 22.6% 5.5% 6.3%

2012 5,523,000 317,994 5.8% 5,205,006 15.8% 4.7% 5.3%

2013 5,839,000 357,890 6.1% 5,481,110 12.5% 5.3% 5.7%

2006-13 CGR

20.0% 4.3% 5.0%

2013-18 Guess 7,452,208 674,106 9.0% 6,778,102 13.5% 4.3% 5.0%

Moreover, They Have Shown Good Load Factor Discipline

% Growth In ASK’s (Available Seat Kilometers) Load Factor

Year Emirates Etihad Qatar Emirates Etihad Qatar

CY 2007 24.8% 47.8% 37.4%

CY 2008 15.6% 20.0% 19.4%

CY 2009 13.4% 5.8% 27.3% 75.8% 73.9% 75.8%

CY 2010 20.6% 19.6% 16.3% 78.1% 74.2% 78.1%

CY 2011 24.1% 13.3% 14.5% 79.9% 75.9% 80.0%

CY 2012 17.9% 19.6% 8.1% 79.7% 78.7% 79.7%

CY 2013 14.6% 16.6% 7.3% 79.4% 78.1% 79.4%

18 18




Rising Overcapacity Worries – Gulf Big 3 Their Planned Widebody Capacity Growth Looks In Line With Their Recent Performance

Jun-14

Est. Deliveries*

Aircraft Type In Service 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

777/777X 201

12 12 8 4 11 13 3 5

787 13

6 6 17 11 9 19 12 2

747/A340 26

A330 79

4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

A350 0

6 14 27 12 8 15 12 9

A380 49

16 18 15 9 10 9 10 9

Total 368 44 50 68 36 38 56 37 25

Seats Added - '000

17.5 20.1 25.0 13.3 14.4 19.9 13.7 10.1

Ending Seats -

'000 136.4

153.9 172.4 195.7 207.0 219.4 237.1 248.5 256.1

% Change

12.9% 13.0% 14.5% 6.8% 7.0% 9.1% 5.8% 4.1%

19

But Capacity Expansion May Encroach on European Carrier Yields – A Problem For Sentiment and Perhaps, Fundamentals

19




Uncertain Product Transitions • 737 to 737Max

• A320 to A320neo

• 777 to 777X

• A330 to A330neo

20 20




Extended Consensus Estimates • Sales decelerating as production rates plateau

• OEM price pressures (e.g. PFS) limit margin prospects

• Average EPS “beat” has dropped

• Manifests in multiple compression

21 21




Average EPS “Beat” Has Dropped Jun Q 2012 Jun Q 2014

EPS Actual EPS Mean Surprise % EPS Actual EPS Mean Surprise %

BA $1.27 $1.11 14.4% $2.42 $2.01 20.4%

BEAV $0.69 $0.68 1.5% $1.13 $1.07 5.6%

COL $1.14 $1.15 -0.9% $1.19 $1.17 1.7%

HON $1.14 $1.12 1.8% $1.38 $1.36 1.5%

HXL $0.42 $0.39 7.7% $0.55 $0.55 0.0%

MOG.A $0.85 $0.84 1.2% $1.08 $1.04 3.8%

PCP $2.35 $2.36 -0.4% $3.32 $3.35 -0.9%

SPR $0.55 $0.52 5.8% $1.01 $0.68 48.5%

TDG $1.88 $1.70 10.6% $2.02 $1.98 2.0%

TGI $1.48 $1.28 15.6% $1.19 $1.20 -0.8%

UTX $1.62 $1.41 14.9% $1.84 $1.70 8.2%

Group Average 6.6% 8.2%

Ex-SPR Avg = 4.2%

22 22




Multiple Compression Has Occurred Next 12 Mon Next 12 Mon

9/15/2013 Price EPS Mean P/E 9/15/2014 Price EPS Mean P/E

BA $111.33 $7.09 15.7x $125.84 $8.46 14.9x

BEAV $72.91 $4.08 17.9x $85.30 $5.08 16.8x

COL $73.03 $4.85 15.1x $76.61 $4.95 15.5x

HON $84.05 $5.39 15.6x $94.60 $6.01 15.7x

HXL $37.85 $2.02 18.7x $39.38 $2.36 16.7x

MOG.A $54.18 $4.04 13.4x $68.97 $4.27 16.1x

PCP $232.23 $13.04 17.8x $241.27 $15.03 16.1x

SPR $24.05 $2.10 11.5x $38.99 $3.34 11.7x

TDG $143.07 $7.43 19.3x $189.58 $8.45 22.4x

TGI $74.90 $6.82 11.0x $69.59 $6.20 11.2x

UTX $108.39 $6.77 16.0x $108.09 $7.35 14.7x

Group Average 15.6x 15.6x

SPX_IDX $1,687.99 $114.55 14.7x $1,983.39 $124.86 15.9x

Premium/Discount vs. S&P 500 6.0% -1.7%

23 23




This Cycle Is Different… • Longer backlogs

• Product driven (replacement cycle)

• Geographically-diverse

• Attractive “macros” (interest rates; oil)

24 24




…But investors may remain doubtful • All cycles have differences

• Higher idiosyncratic “bar” given book/ship declines

• “He said, she said” – will be judged ex post the book/ship inflection

25 25


AddendumAnalyst CertificationEach author of this research report hereby certifies that (i) the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers, and (ii) no part of his or her compensationwas, is, or will be related, directly or indirectly, to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Important DisclosuresThis report constitutes a compendium report (covers six or more subject companies). As such, Cowen and Company, LLC chooses to provide specific disclosures for the companies mentioned by reference. To access current disclosures forthe all companies in this report, clients should refer to https://cowen.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or contact your Cowen and Company, LLC representative for additional information.Cowen and Company, LLC compensates research analysts for activities and services intended to benefit the firm's investor clients. Individual compensation determinations for research analysts, including the author(s) of this report, are basedon a variety of factors, including the overall profitability of the firm and the total revenue derived from all sources, including revenues from investment banking. Cowen and Company, LLC does not compensate research analysts based onspecific investment banking transactions.

DisclaimerThis research is for our clients only. Our research is disseminated primarily electronically and, in some cases, in printed form. Research distributed electronically is available simultaneously to all Cowen and Company, LLC clients. All publishedresearch can be obtained on the Firm's client website, https://cowenlibrary.bluematrix.com/client/library.jsp.Further information on any of the above securities may be obtained from our offices. This report is published solely for information purposes, and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in anystate where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. Other than disclosures relating to Cowen and Company, LLC, the information herein is based on sources we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us and does not purport tobe a complete statement or summary of the available data. Any opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment on this date and are subject to change without notice.

For important disclosures regarding the companies that are the subject of this research report, please contact Compliance Department, Cowen and Company, LLC, 599 Lexington Avenue, 20th Floor, New York, NY 10022. In addition, the sameimportant disclosures, with the exception of the valuation methods and risks, are available on the Firm's disclosure website at https://cowen.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.

Price Targets: Cowen and Company, LLC assigns price targets on all covered companies unless noted otherwise. The price target for an issuer's stock represents the value that the analyst reasonably expects the stock to reach over aperformance period of twelve months. The price targets in this report should be considered in the context of all prior published Cowen and Company, LLC research reports (including the disclosures in any such report or on the Firm'sdisclosure website), which may or may not include price targets, as well as developments relating to the issuer, its industry and the financial markets. For price target valuation methodology and risks associated with the achievement of anygiven price target, please see the analyst's research report publishing such targets.

Notice to UK Investors: This publication is produced by Cowen and Company, LLC which is regulated in the United States by FINRA. It is to be communicated only to persons of a kind described in Articles 19 and 49 of the FinancialServices and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005. It must not be further transmitted to any other person without our consent.

Copyright, User Agreement and other general information related to this report

© 2014 Cowen and Company, LLC. Member NYSE, FINRA and SIPC. All rights reserved. This research report is prepared for the exclusive use of Cowen clients and may not be reproduced, displayed, modified, distributed, transmitted ordisclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, to others outside your organization without the express prior written consent of Cowen. Cowen research reports are distributed simultaneously to all clients eligible to receive suchresearch reports. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and/or review of this research constitutes your agreement not to reproduce, display, modify, distribute, transmit, or disclose to others outside your organization thecontents, opinions, conclusion, or information contained in this report (including any investment recommendations, estimates or price targets). All Cowen trademarks displayed in this report are owned by Cowen and may not be used withoutits prior written consent.

Cowen and Company, LLC. New York (646) 562-1000 Boston (617) 946-3700 San Francisco (415) 646-7200 Chicago (312) 577-2240 Cleveland (440) 331-3531 Atlanta (866) 544-7009 London (affiliate) 44-207-071-7500

COWEN AND COMPANY RATING DEFINITIONS

Cowen and Company Rating System effective May 25, 2013

Outperform (1): The stock is expected to achieve a total positive return of at least 15% over the next 12 months

Market Perform (2): The stock is expected to have a total return that falls between the parameters of an Outperform and Underperform over the next 12 months

Underperform (3): Stock is expected to achieve a total negative return of at least 10% over the next 12 months

Assumption: The expected total return calculation includes anticipated dividend yield

Cowen and Company Rating System until May 25, 2013

Outperform (1): Stock expected to outperform the S&P 500

Neutral (2): Stock expected to perform in line with the S&P 500

Underperform (3): Stock expected to underperform the S&P 500

26


https://cowen.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.actionhttps://cowenlibrary.bluematrix.com/client/library.jsphttps://cowen.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action

Assumptions: Time horizon is 12 months; S&P 500 is flat over forecast period

Cowen Securities, formerly known as Dahlman Rose & Company, Rating System until May 25, 2013

Buy – The fundamentals/valuations of the subject company are improving and the investment return is expected to be 5 to 15 percentage points higher than the general market return

Sell – The fundamentals/valuations of the subject company are deteriorating and the investment return is expected to be 5 to 15 percentage points lower than the general market return

Hold – The fundamentals/valuations of the subject company are neither improving nor deteriorating and the investment return is expected to be in line with the general market return

Cowen And Company Rating DefinitionsDistribution of Ratings/Investment Banking Services (IB) as of 06/30/14

Rating Count Ratings Distribution Count IB Services/Past 12 Months

Buy (a) 417 58.57% 94 22.54%

Hold (b) 279 39.19% 7 2.51%

Sell (c) 16 2.25% 0 0.00%

(a) Corresponds to "Outperform" rated stocks as defined in Cowen and Company, LLC's rating definitions. (b) Corresponds to "Market Perform" as defined in Cowen and Company, LLC's ratings definitions. (c) Corresponds to "Underperform"as defined in Cowen and Company, LLC's ratings definitions.

Note: "Buy", "Hold" and "Sell" are not terms that Cowen and Company, LLC uses in its ratings system and should not be construed as investment options. Rather, these ratings terms are used illustratively to comply with FINRA and NYSEregulations.

27


Points Of ContactAnalyst Profiles

Cai von Rumohr, CFA

Boston

617.946.3942

[email protected]

Cai von Rumohr is a senior analystcovering aerospace & defense for over40 years – all at Cowen.

Gautam Khanna

Boston

617.946.3978

[email protected]

Gautam Khanna is a senior analystcovering aerospace & defense. He wasan analyst at Citadel, and has a BS fromGeorgetown and MBA from MIT.

Lucy Guo, CFA

Boston

617.946.3818

[email protected]

Lucy Guo is an associate coveringaerospace & defense. She started co-covering A&D at Bear Stearns, and is aChartered Financial Analyst.

Reaching Cowen

Main U.S. Locations

New York

599 Lexington AvenueNew York, NY 10022646.562.1000800.221.5616

Atlanta

3399 Peachtree Road NESuite 417Atlanta, GA 30326866.544.7009

Boston

Two International PlaceBoston, MA 02110617.946.3700800.343.7068

Chicago

181 West Madison StreetSuite 1925Chicago, IL 60602312.577.2240

Cleveland

20006 Detroit RoadSuite 100Rocky River, OH 44116440.331.3531

San Francisco

555 California Street, 5th FloorSan Francisco, CA 94104415.646.7200800.858.9316

International Locations

Cowen International Limited Cowen and Company (Asia) Limited

London

1 Snowden Street - 11th FloorLondon EC2A 2DQUnited Kingdom44.20.7071.7500

Hong Kong

Suite 1401 Henley BuildingNo. 5 Queens Road CentralCentral, Hong Kong852 3752 2333

@CowenResearch Cowen and Company28


are the aero stocks done? · 2018. 4. 14. · airbus a320 family 415 ... a350 78 (31) 27 230 (62)...

Documents