applications of the eclac methodology in latin america and asia

Applications of the Applications of the ECLAC methodology inECLAC methodology in

Latin America and AsiaLatin America and Asia

Review of the progress and adaptations in Review of the progress and adaptations in light of recent experienceslight of recent experiences

Ricardo Zapata, Focal Point for Disaster EvaluationRicardo Zapata, Focal Point for Disaster EvaluationECLACECLAC

R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation

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There are different approaches to risk:

Living in it Living with itWhat is impossible is to ignore it.

Not measuring the impact of unattended built risk is precisely ignoring it:

Quantifying and making it visible to decision makers is the first step

A healthy approach is to reduce it and, by appropriating it, transferring it.

Other development goals and major strategies for poverty reduction must live wit risk: appropriate it and discount it as part of the investment strategy and programme and project planning


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The importance of economic The importance of economic assessment of damage and needsassessment of damage and needs

Have a record on damage Have a record on damage caused by past eventscaused by past events

Establish link between level of Establish link between level of damage and magnitude or damage and magnitude or strength of a certain category of strength of a certain category of eventevent

Value losses to quantify needs Value losses to quantify needs for rehabilitation and for rehabilitation and reconstructionreconstruction

Put in evidence the benefits of Put in evidence the benefits of mitigation and reductionmitigation and reduction

Make information available to Make information available to potentially affected or exposed potentially affected or exposed communities (stakeholders)communities (stakeholders)


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The CEPAL/ ECLAC experienceThe CEPAL/ ECLAC experience

First a thank you note:First a thank you note: To bilateral cooperation: Italy, the Netherlands, individually To bilateral cooperation: Italy, the Netherlands, individually

affected countriesaffected countries IFIS (World Bank and IDB) and UNDPIFIS (World Bank and IDB) and UNDP Experts and UN agencies (PAHO, ILO, FAO, UNEP, UNFPA, etc.)Experts and UN agencies (PAHO, ILO, FAO, UNEP, UNFPA, etc.) Researchers and consultants (ADPC for example)Researchers and consultants (ADPC for example)

Secondly: Where we are at present: the data and the Secondly: Where we are at present: the data and the researchresearch Increasingly complex assessmentsIncreasingly complex assessments Examples of adaptation: Mexico, Gujarat, case by case Examples of adaptation: Mexico, Gujarat, case by case

emphasis, ESCAP/UNDP/ECLAC projectemphasis, ESCAP/UNDP/ECLAC project Collaboration in identifying disaster risk indicatorsCollaboration in identifying disaster risk indicators Link disaster’s impact to development processes, climate Link disaster’s impact to development processes, climate

change and MDGschange and MDGs


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The vision and the mission: economic The vision and the mission: economic assessment reduces vulnerabilityassessment reduces vulnerability

VISIONVISION Development is a systemic process, integrated Development is a systemic process, integrated

and integrating, sustainable if comprehensive, and integrating, sustainable if comprehensive, participative and inclujsive. Basic pillars of participative and inclujsive. Basic pillars of ECLAC’s vision are:ECLAC’s vision are: CompetitivinessCompetitiviness EquityEquity GovernanceGovernance SustainabilitySustainability (both in the envronmental (both in the envronmental

and economic sense: equilibria of macro and economic sense: equilibria of macro variables coupled with growth and appropriate variables coupled with growth and appropriate use of natural resources preserving inter-use of natural resources preserving inter-generational equity)generational equity)

ResilienceResilience (by facing and reducing (by facing and reducing vulnerability in socioeconomic, environmental vulnerability in socioeconomic, environmental and political terms, providing better response and political terms, providing better response mechanisms in the face of external shocks, mechanisms in the face of external shocks, physical, economic, internal and external)physical, economic, internal and external)

MISSIONMISSION Follow up, analyze and interpret the Follow up, analyze and interpret the

socioeconomic, environmental and socioeconomic, environmental and political process in the countries in political process in the countries in the region (improve comparative the region (improve comparative analysis and promote dialogue)analysis and promote dialogue)

Provide technical assistance in policy Provide technical assistance in policy formulation and contribute to the formulation and contribute to the debate on development paradigmsdebate on development paradigms

Promote studies that focus on Promote studies that focus on development issues and advance the development issues and advance the MDGsMDGs

Promote diaologue among the Promote diaologue among the different stakeholders in the decision different stakeholders in the decision making process (private sector, public making process (private sector, public officials, academia, NGOs, etc.)officials, academia, NGOs, etc.)

Collaborate with other agencies and Collaborate with other agencies and organizations in the UN family and organizations in the UN family and donor community in common goals donor community in common goals and in assistance to countriesand in assistance to countries

Promote cooperation and integration Promote cooperation and integration initiatives at the national, sub regional initiatives at the national, sub regional and regional levelsand regional levels


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Impacts, development and adaptation: Impacts, development and adaptation: reduce risk by managing vulnerability and reduce risk by managing vulnerability and assessing adaptation needs and costsassessing adaptation needs and costs

PROCESSES PROCESSES (DRIVERS)(DRIVERS)

VULNERABILITIES VULNERABILITIES (RESPONSES)(RESPONSES)

CLIMATE AND OTHER CLIMATE AND OTHER NATURAL NATURAL

STRESSORSSTRESSORS

Globalization, poverty, Globalization, poverty, urbanization, urbanization, demographic demographic

movements (aging, movements (aging, migration, etc.)migration, etc.)

Built infrastructure, Built infrastructure, settlements, economic settlements, economic

and other human and other human activities, habitats and activities, habitats and

ecosystemsecosystems

Scientific information Scientific information and modelling: from and modelling: from

past data to past data to forecastingforecasting

COPING CAPACITY: COPING CAPACITY: awareness, awareness,

cost/benefit, market cost/benefit, market and non-market and non-market

instrumentsinstruments

SENSITIVITY: SENSITIVITY: resources and capital resources and capital

(human, social, (human, social, economic)economic)

EXPOSURES: multi-EXPOSURES: multi-hazard and change hazard and change

over timeover time


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Discussions points: Present Discussions points: Present achievementsachievements A longstanding methodology for assessing the (direct) losses and A longstanding methodology for assessing the (direct) losses and

(indirect) damages that compile the impact of a major natural disaster(indirect) damages that compile the impact of a major natural disaster Developed by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Developed by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the

Caribbean (ECLAC), seen as both a fund raising instrument to present Caribbean (ECLAC), seen as both a fund raising instrument to present to the donor community and a planning tool for recoveryto the donor community and a planning tool for recovery is increasingly systematically applied by the World Bank and regional is increasingly systematically applied by the World Bank and regional

development banks to provide the basis and / or justification for multilateral development banks to provide the basis and / or justification for multilateral loans for reconstructionloans for reconstruction

accepted by governments, donors, the IFIs and the UN system and accepted by governments, donors, the IFIs and the UN system and capacities have been developed at all levels for its application following capacities have been developed at all levels for its application following disasters. disasters.

A cross-cutting, multisectoral, inteinstitutional toolA cross-cutting, multisectoral, inteinstitutional toolA major drawback: it is demand driven, so depends on whether A major drawback: it is demand driven, so depends on whether

governments see the need to use it or not. Does not allow for a governments see the need to use it or not. Does not allow for a systematic, ongoing data gathering processsystematic, ongoing data gathering process


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Discussion points: Gaps or perceived needs Discussion points: Gaps or perceived needs towards a standardized methodologytowards a standardized methodology

Define what is it forDefine what is it for Determine differenced between damage /losses assessments from Determine differenced between damage /losses assessments from

needs assessmentsneeds assessments See successive assessments as complementary not competitive toolsSee successive assessments as complementary not competitive tools Not to overwhelm governments in time of crisis with repetitive Not to overwhelm governments in time of crisis with repetitive

questions and assessment missionsquestions and assessment missions Governments give an uneven response to these initiatives and local or Governments give an uneven response to these initiatives and local or

national capacities have not been developed in high risk countries.national capacities have not been developed in high risk countries. There is a lack of consensus as to how to fill the gap: There is a lack of consensus as to how to fill the gap:

Within the UN system, or Within the UN system, or amongst a cadre of expertsamongst a cadre of experts

The questions remains: how to apply such a methodology in practiceThe questions remains: how to apply such a methodology in practice Need to standardize criteria / definitionsNeed to standardize criteria / definitions Reinforce pre-disaster base line data collectionReinforce pre-disaster base line data collection Train relevant national officials / institutionsTrain relevant national officials / institutions


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Main ConceptsMain ConceptsDamage (Stocks)Damage (Stocks) Impact on assetsImpact on assets

InfrastructureInfrastructure CapitalCapital StocksStocks

Occur immediately Occur immediately during or after the during or after the phenomenon that phenomenon that caused the disastercaused the disaster

Losses (Flows)Losses (Flows) Effects on flowsEffects on flows

ProductionProduction Reduced income and Reduced income and

increased expensesincreased expenses Are perceived after the Are perceived after the

phenomenon, for a time-phenomenon, for a time-period that can last from period that can last from weeks to months, till weeks to months, till recuperation occursrecuperation occurs


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Private investmentPrivate investmentProjects and resource fund raising

Decomposition of total damageDecomposition of total damage

•Direct damageDirect damage•Indirect effectsIndirect effects

• Asset lossesAsset losses• Production costsProduction costs• Cost increasesCost increases•Income reductionIncome reduction

•Public sectorPublic sectorPrivate sectorPrivate sector

Reconstruction costsReconstruction costs

Effects on the economyEffects on the economy

Primary damagePrimary damage

Secondary effectsSecondary effects

Tertiary impactTertiary impact

Public investmentPublic investment


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Social SectorsSocial Sectors HousingHousing HealthHealth Education, culture, Education, culture,

sportssports InfrastructureInfrastructure

Transport and Transport and communicationscommunications

EnergyEnergy Water and sewerageWater and sewerage

Productive sectors Productive sectors Goods: agriculture, industryGoods: agriculture, industry Services: commerce, tourism, Services: commerce, tourism,

etc.etc.

Global impactGlobal impact On the environmentOn the environment Gender perspectiveGender perspective Employment and social Employment and social

conditionsconditions Macroeconomic Macroeconomic

assessmentassessment

SECTOR BY SECTOR VALUATION SECTOR BY SECTOR VALUATION METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY


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D = Va – VbD = Va – Vb

Where Va is the initial condition expected for a variable (sectoral, Where Va is the initial condition expected for a variable (sectoral, weighed) and Vb is the discounted effect of the disaster.weighed) and Vb is the discounted effect of the disaster.

K = Ka – KbK = Ka – KbMeasures the capital (assets) lost, estimated by compiling direct Measures the capital (assets) lost, estimated by compiling direct

damages computed sector by sector.damages computed sector by sector.

DY = Ya – YbDY = Ya – YbMeasures the production/income lossesMeasures the production/income losses

The capital/income-production ratio is generally The capital/income-production ratio is generally assumed not to vary substantively as a result of the assumed not to vary substantively as a result of the disasterdisaster


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Measuring the cost of impact Measuring the cost of impact (and mitigation or adaptation)(and mitigation or adaptation)

Baseline situation Baseline situation (ex ante)(ex ante)

Historical trend Historical trend (without climate (without climate

change)change) based on past performance based on past performance

of economyof economy

Cimate change Cimate change (ex post)(ex post)

To include expected orTo include expected ordesired investmentdesired investment

Measurement of impactsMeasurement of impacts

Direct and indirectDirect and indirect

Over the preexisting situation (baseline, historical trend, Over the preexisting situation (baseline, historical trend, by sector)by sector)

Carried into the national accounts as effect on value added and estimated Carried into the national accounts as effect on value added and estimated for alternative scenarios as the gap between trend and scenario results. for alternative scenarios as the gap between trend and scenario results.

Scenarios reflect on the one hand impact cost and on the other mitigation / Scenarios reflect on the one hand impact cost and on the other mitigation / adaptation investmentadaptation investment


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Some things are easier to Some things are easier to measure than othersmeasure than others IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINEIT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE

The value of lives lost or affectedThe value of lives lost or affected The opportunity cost, cost-benefit or investment / profitability. This is The opportunity cost, cost-benefit or investment / profitability. This is

associated with the lack of adequate base lines that assess the level, quality associated with the lack of adequate base lines that assess the level, quality and efficiency / efficacy of health services providedand efficiency / efficacy of health services provided

The value and quality of services provided (both curative and preventive) The value and quality of services provided (both curative and preventive) The duration of the transition / emergency phase (when field hospitals and The duration of the transition / emergency phase (when field hospitals and

evacuation processes are operational)evacuation processes are operational) IT IS EASIER TO DETERMINEIT IS EASIER TO DETERMINE

The amount of investment required for reinforcement vs. The potential losses in The amount of investment required for reinforcement vs. The potential losses in equipment and inventories equipment and inventories

The cost of reinforcement as compared to the reposition cost of affected The cost of reinforcement as compared to the reposition cost of affected infrastructureinfrastructure

The alternative cost of providing services when infrastructures collapseThe alternative cost of providing services when infrastructures collapse


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IMPACT OF DISASTERS IN LATIN AMERICA IMPACT OF DISASTERS IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN – 1972-2005AND THE CARIBBEAN – 1972-2005(based on ECLAC assessments)(based on ECLAC assessments)

PERIODPERIOD AFFECTED AFFECTED POPULATIONPOPULATION

TOTAL IMPACT (CONSTANT 2004 VALUE)TOTAL IMPACT (CONSTANT 2004 VALUE)

DeathsDeaths Directly Directly affected affected

populationpopulation

TOTALTOTAL DAMAGE DAMAGE (to assets)(to assets)

LOSSES LOSSES (in flows)(in flows)

External External impactimpact

1972-20051972-2005 115,176115,176 35,463,89035,463,890 232,259.4232,259.4 150,335.0150,335.0 80,424.380,424.3 77,221.077,221.0

YEARLY YEARLY AVERAGE AVERAGE (on the basis of (on the basis of

ECLAC assessed ECLAC assessed disasters in Latin disasters in Latin America and the America and the

Caribbean)Caribbean)

3,4903,490 1,074,6631,074,663 7,038.27,038.2 4,555.64,555.6 2,437.12,437.1 2,340.02,340.0


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DIFFERENT IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT EVENTS DIFFERENT IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT EVENTS (as observed in ECLAC assessments, 1972-2005)(as observed in ECLAC assessments, 1972-2005)

AFFECTED AFFECTED POPULATIONPOPULATION

TOTAL IMPACT (constant 2004 prices)TOTAL IMPACT (constant 2004 prices)

DeathsDeaths Directly Directly affected affected


TOTALTOTAL DAMAGEDAMAGE (to assets)(to assets)

LOSSESLOSSES (in flows)(in flows)

External External sector sector impactimpact

METEOROLOGICAL METEOROLOGICAL (CLIMATIC) EVENTS(CLIMATIC) EVENTS

50,42450,424 24,945,14524,945,145 118,926118,926 73,38273,382 43,30443,304 35,60035,600

GEOMORPHOLOGICAL GEOMORPHOLOGICAL (SISMIC, VOLCANIC) (SISMIC, VOLCANIC)

EVENTSEVENTS

64,75264,752 10,518,74510,518,745 113,334113,334 76,95376,953 37,12037,120 41,62141,621

DroughtsDroughts 3535 2,200,0002,200,000 10,59910,599 5,8885,888 4,7124,712 3,1413,141

TOTAL ASSESSED EVENTSTOTAL ASSESSED EVENTS 115,176115,176 35,463,89035,463,890 232,259.4232,259.4 150,335.0150,335.0 80,424.380,424.3 77,221.077,221.0

Meteorological as % of totalMeteorological as % of total 44%44% 70%70% 51%51% 49%49% 54%54% 46%46%

Droughts as % of totalDroughts as % of total 0.07%0.07% 8.82%8.82% 8.91%8.91% 8.02%8.02% 10.88%10.88% 8.82%8.82%

Damage compositionDamage composition

totaltotal 64.7%64.7% 34.6%34.6% 33.2%33.2%

Meteorological or climaticMeteorological or climatic 61.7%61.7% 36.4%36.4% 29.9%29.9%

Non-climaticNon-climatic 67.9%67.9% 32.8%32.8% 36.7%36.7%

DroughtsDroughts 55.5%55.5% 44.5%44.5% 29.6%29.6%


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Future requirements: the road Future requirements: the road not takennot taken

Have a systematic comparable data base over time and geographically Have a systematic comparable data base over time and geographically comparablecomparable

Currently different organizations and agencies collect data Currently different organizations and agencies collect data independently at different periods and at different scales, duplicating independently at different periods and at different scales, duplicating efforts and hampering data integration. efforts and hampering data integration.

Little synergy between the data collection efforts during the emergency Little synergy between the data collection efforts during the emergency phase either by UN system, NGOs, IFRC and government agencies, and phase either by UN system, NGOs, IFRC and government agencies, and data collected during IFI assessment missions. data collected during IFI assessment missions.

Lack of explicit difference between perception of needs:Lack of explicit difference between perception of needs: By donors to define humanitarian and recovery interventionsBy donors to define humanitarian and recovery interventions By UN agencies to fund projectsBy UN agencies to fund projects By IFIS to provide emergency / recovery / regular loans or to reprogramme, By IFIS to provide emergency / recovery / regular loans or to reprogramme,

reorient existing loansreorient existing loansThere is an undeniable turf battle over disaster management, response and There is an undeniable turf battle over disaster management, response and

recovery and not enough concern about mitigation, effective recovery and not enough concern about mitigation, effective preventgion, and adaptation (a.k.a. reinforcement and resilience)preventgion, and adaptation (a.k.a. reinforcement and resilience)

HUMANHUMAN

-HealthHealth

-EducationEducation

NATURALNATURAL

-Clean waterClean water

-Clean airClean air

-Biodiversity and Biodiversity and ecosystem ecosystem (microclimate)(microclimate)

FINANCIALFINANCIAL

-Access to creditAccess to credit

-Land tenure and ownershipLand tenure and ownership

PHYSICALPHYSICAL

-Type and quality of Type and quality of settlement and settlement and housinghousing

SOCIALSOCIAL

-Social networks (security and Social networks (security and solidarity)solidarity)

-Family ties and extended familyFamily ties and extended family

-Violence and securityViolence and security

1

10

100HUMAN

SOCIAL

NATURALFINANCIAL

PHYSICAL

Past Current Mid-term Long term


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GDP GROWTH RATE

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Yea

r ra

te

]Before disaster After disaster

Global dynamic effectsGlobal dynamic effectsMacroeconomic effectsMacroeconomic effects Repercussions are felt in the Repercussions are felt in the

national, local or regional national, local or regional economy as a consequence of economy as a consequence of the disaster (natural event)the disaster (natural event)

It may last for several years It may last for several years after the disaster, depending on after the disaster, depending on the characteristics of the event, the characteristics of the event, its magnitude and the sectors / its magnitude and the sectors / activities affectedactivities affected

Are measurable asAre measurable as Growth rate and level of GDPGrowth rate and level of GDP Performance of the external Performance of the external

sector (imports, exports, sector (imports, exports, transfers and investment)transfers and investment)

Performance of public financesPerformance of public finances Price variations and inflationPrice variations and inflation


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Disasters Impact on El Salvador´ s GDP

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Growth without disasters

Growth with Mitch, earthquakes, drought and hurricane Stan

MITCH

EARTHQUAKE

DROUGHT

STANSTAN


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Gujarat (INDIA): Total Damage from disasters and Calamity fund budgeted resources (Crores of Rupees)

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

3000.00

3500.00

90-91 91-92 92-93 1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

97-98 1998 1999 99-2000

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2004 2005

Total Damage (Crores)Calamity Relief Fund (from Finance Commision, Delhi)Amount spent on calamity relief and rehabilitation buy State Govt.


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Impact of disasters on GDP: State of Impact of disasters on GDP: State of Gujarat, IndiaGujarat, India

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03

SGDP with disasters Potential growth without disastrs

Logarítmica (Potential growth without disastrs) Logarítmica (SGDP with disasters)


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KEY VULNERABILITIESKEY VULNERABILITIES

Size, level of development and Size, level of development and development path matters:development path matters: Impact to GDP ratio: co-relation to sizeImpact to GDP ratio: co-relation to sizeDiversification of economic activities: Diversification of economic activities:

alternative response mechanismsalternative response mechanismsEconomic and natural cycles interactEconomic and natural cycles interact


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2005 Atlantic Hurricane 2005 Atlantic Hurricane seasonseason

DeathsDeaths Directly Directly affected affected populatipopulati

onon

Total impact Total impact (millions of (millions of

USD)USD)

Damage Damage (to (to

assets)assets)

LosseLosses (in s (in

flows)flows)

Per capita Per capita impact on impact on affected affected


DateDate LocationLocation Type of eventType of event PopulationPopulation Total impact (millions of USD)Total impact (millions of USD)

JanuaryJanuary GuyanaGuyana Flood due to intense rainfall in Flood due to intense rainfall in December/January period in December/January period in coastal floodplains in coastal floodplains in Georgetown and AlbionGeorgetown and Albion

3434 274,774274,774 465.1465.1 418.3418.3 46.846.8 1,692.71,692.7

OctoberOctober GuatemalaGuatemala Torrential rains, tropical storm Torrential rains, tropical storm StanStan

1,5831,583 474,821474,821 988.3988.3 421.1421.1 567.2567.2 2,081.42,081.4

OctoberOctober El SalvadorEl Salvador Torrential rains, tropical storm Torrential rains, tropical storm Stan, and Ilamatepec (Santa Stan, and Ilamatepec (Santa Ana) volcano eruptionAna) volcano eruption

6969 72,14172,141 355.7355.7 196.2196.2 159.5159.5 4,930.64,930.6

July-SeptemberJuly-September United United States b/States b/

Dennis, Katrina, RitaDennis, Katrina, Rita 1,6981,698 900,000900,000 200,000.200,000.00

65,000.65,000.00

135,000.135,000.00

222,222.2222,222.2

July-SeptemberJuly-September Mexico b/Mexico b/ Emily, Stan, Wilma, etc.Emily, Stan, Wilma, etc. 6464 2,680,5712,680,571 2,200.02,200.0 1,250.01,250.0 950.0950.0 820.7820.7

EmilyEmily 44 63,30063,300 413.2413.2 322.8322.8 90.490.4 6,527.56,527.5

AugustAugust Cuba b/Cuba b/ Dennis Dennis 1616 2,500,0002,500,000 1,400.01,400.0 950.0950.0 450.0450.0 560.0560.0

Other events a/Other events a/ 1,1341,134 3,474,3893,474,389 150.0150.0 100.0100.0 50.050.0 43.243.2

TOTALTOTAL Assessed by ECLACAssessed by ECLAC 1,6901,690 885,036885,036 2,2222,222 1,3581,358 864864 2,511.02,511.0

TOTAL (not including United States)TOTAL (not including United States) 2,9002,900 6,002,3076,002,307 5,5595,559 3,2363,236 2,1742,174 926.2926.2

TOTAL (IN CLUDING UNITED STATES)TOTAL (IN CLUDING UNITED STATES) 4,5984,598 6,902,3076,902,307 205,559205,559 68,23668,236 137,174137,174 29,781.229,781.2

Source: ECLAC estimatesSource: ECLAC estimates

Nota: Data for Mexico and United States are partial and reflect preliminary estimates. In the case of Mexico the complete assessment is in Nota: Data for Mexico and United States are partial and reflect preliminary estimates. In the case of Mexico the complete assessment is in process by the official technical entities.process by the official technical entities.

a/ Includes volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and floods in other countries and are an estimate on the basis of partial data.a/ Includes volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and floods in other countries and are an estimate on the basis of partial data.

b/ Based on diverse sources, not official estimates.b/ Based on diverse sources, not official estimates.


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Post-disaster needs in a wider Post-disaster needs in a wider context: Extreme events as a driver context: Extreme events as a driver for changefor change The financial adaptation: the The financial adaptation: the

experience of re-insurersexperience of re-insurers The social adaptation: the tsunami and The social adaptation: the tsunami and

Katrina syndromesKatrina syndromes The economic adaptation: move public The economic adaptation: move public

goods into the market domaingoods into the market domain


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Finally… where do we want to Finally… where do we want to be: the road to be takenbe: the road to be taken

The Kobe conference: from the Hyogo Declaration to The Kobe conference: from the Hyogo Declaration to effective actioneffective action De-tsunamize and De-Katrinize disaster managementDe-tsunamize and De-Katrinize disaster management Act on conviction: risk reduction is a developmental and an Act on conviction: risk reduction is a developmental and an

economic issueeconomic issue Revert the myth on public goods: internalize damage and Revert the myth on public goods: internalize damage and

externalize benefits/profitsexternalize benefits/profits Act as a “united” international community, both within the United Act as a “united” international community, both within the United

Nations system, in the donor community, including NGOs and with Nations system, in the donor community, including NGOs and with the private sectorthe private sector

Cooperation and sharing vs. turf battling and individual posturingCooperation and sharing vs. turf battling and individual posturing Priority to “client” needs over supply-driven initiatives (overcome the Priority to “client” needs over supply-driven initiatives (overcome the

“father knows best” syndrome)“father knows best” syndrome) Recognize diversity and dissensionRecognize diversity and dissension Advance knowledge over advance self-interestAdvance knowledge over advance self-interest


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Appropriation of risk needed to Appropriation of risk needed to promote risk reduction:promote risk reduction: Need for institutional and regulatory Need for institutional and regulatory

changeschanges Use of market to value (“price”) riskUse of market to value (“price”) risk Need for social policies for Need for social policies for

compensation and promotion (provide compensation and promotion (provide gender, age, ethnic sensitive gender, age, ethnic sensitive instruments) instruments)

See risk reduction as a business See risk reduction as a business opportunityopportunity

Imperfect or inactive markets require Imperfect or inactive markets require government action / interventiongovernment action / intervention


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Reference materials:Reference materials: ECLAC handbook for the socioeconomic and environmental ECLAC handbook for the socioeconomic and environmental

impact of disasters (impact of disasters (www.cepal.org/mexico, “desastres”), “desastres”) Disasters and development (IADB/ECLAC publication, 2000Disasters and development (IADB/ECLAC publication, 2000 Disaster assessments: 1973 to 2005 (Disaster assessments: 1973 to 2005 (www.cepal.org/mexico), ),

“desastres”)“desastres”) The 2004 Hurricanes in the Caribbean and the Tsunami in the The 2004 Hurricanes in the Caribbean and the Tsunami in the

Indian Ocean (ECLAC series (“Estudios y perspectivas) no.35 Indian Ocean (ECLAC series (“Estudios y perspectivas) no.35

Thanks for your attentionThanks for your attention

applications of the eclac methodology in latin america and asia

Documents

zapata focal point

disaster evaluationr

disaster evaluationthere

disaster evaluationeclacr

disaster evaluationthe

development processes

wit risk

economic sense