ricardo zapataeclac / wb workshop1 regional training on the eclac disaster evaluation methodology...

Ricardo Zapata ECLAC / WB Workshop 1

REGIONAL TRAINING REGIONAL TRAINING

ON THE ECLAC ON THE ECLAC

DISASTER EVALUATION DISASTER EVALUATION

METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY

ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, 17-19 December 2007ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, 17-19 December 2007


Capabilities and Limitations of Capabilities and Limitations of the Damage and Loss the Damage and Loss

Assessment MethodologyAssessment MethodologyINTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

Ricardo Zapata Marti, Focal Point on Disaster EvaluationRicardo Zapata Marti, Focal Point on Disaster EvaluationAsha Kambon, Caribbean Focal PointAsha Kambon, Caribbean Focal Point

David Smith, Consultant (Environment and Infrastructure)David Smith, Consultant (Environment and Infrastructure)Vincent Little, IICA (Agriculture Specialist)Vincent Little, IICA (Agriculture Specialist)Michael Hendrickson, Economist, ECLACMichael Hendrickson, Economist, ECLAC

ECLAC / WB Workshop 3Ricardo Zapata

DISASTER ASSESSMENT DISASTER ASSESSMENT TRAINING WORKSHOPTRAINING WORKSHOP

History of History of methodology;methodology;

participants in participants in developing sector developing sector analysis; analysis;

conceptual conceptual framework; framework;

intended uses of intended uses of the assessmentthe assessment


DISASTER ASSESSMENT DISASTER ASSESSMENT TRAINING WORKSHOP TRAINING WORKSHOP How it came into being:How it came into being: Turning points: Turning points:

Managua earthquake (1972)Managua earthquake (1972) Caribbean Hurricanes Georges and Keith (1986, Caribbean Hurricanes Georges and Keith (1986,

2000)2000) ECLAC revised Handbook (1999-2003)ECLAC revised Handbook (1999-2003) ECLAC training manual (2003 to present)ECLAC training manual (2003 to present) PartnershipsPartnerships Cross cutting, inter-institutional, interregional, Cross cutting, inter-institutional, interregional,

multidisciplinary approachmultidisciplinary approach Interest beyond ECLAC and global partnershipsInterest beyond ECLAC and global partnerships Strategic partnershipsStrategic partnerships


ECLAC’s substantive ECLAC’s substantive actionsactions

Update the methodology for socioeconomic and environmental damage Update the methodology for socioeconomic and environmental damage assessment, publishing an expanded handbook that includes new cross-assessment, publishing an expanded handbook that includes new cross-cutting analyses such as environmental impact and the gender cutting analyses such as environmental impact and the gender perspective.perspective.

Extend the analytical capacity to prospective analysis and the cumulative Extend the analytical capacity to prospective analysis and the cumulative implications of disasters on growth path and development.implications of disasters on growth path and development.

Use mathematical and econometric models, develop scenarios on the Use mathematical and econometric models, develop scenarios on the projected impact of damageprojected impact of damage

Keep a proactive advocacy for disaster reduction and mitigation, Keep a proactive advocacy for disaster reduction and mitigation, focusing on decision makers in the economic and financial sectors as focusing on decision makers in the economic and financial sectors as well as the private sectorwell as the private sector

Maintain technical assistance to governments both Maintain technical assistance to governments both in terms of damage appraisal after disasters, when required, and in terms of damage appraisal after disasters, when required, and training in the use of the methodologytraining in the use of the methodology

Maintain and encourage interagency and inter-institutional cooperation Maintain and encourage interagency and inter-institutional cooperation and joint actions with relevant organizations both within the United and joint actions with relevant organizations both within the United Nations system and at the regional and subregional levelNations system and at the regional and subregional level


ORGANIZATION OR PROCEDURAL ORGANIZATION OR PROCEDURAL ASPECTS FOR DISASTER ASSESSMENTASPECTS FOR DISASTER ASSESSMENT

Composition of tool(s): multisectoral, interdisciplinary, Composition of tool(s): multisectoral, interdisciplinary, interinstitutionalinterinstitutional

Timeliness: within the “window of opportunity”, not interfering with Timeliness: within the “window of opportunity”, not interfering with emergency actions, but reflect immediate responseemergency actions, but reflect immediate response

Ensure full coverage and avoid duplicationEnsure full coverage and avoid duplication The need for “judgment calls” or the educated guessing of experts: The need for “judgment calls” or the educated guessing of experts:

respect and build on that expertiserespect and build on that expertise Bridge (or better) link emergency needs assessments (as done by Bridge (or better) link emergency needs assessments (as done by

countries, NGOs, IFRC, OCHA, UNDAC, etc.) through rapid countries, NGOs, IFRC, OCHA, UNDAC, etc.) through rapid assessments to the needs (and capacities) for recovery and assessments to the needs (and capacities) for recovery and reconstructionreconstruction


General considerationsGeneral considerations On the concepts of risk, vulnerability and mitigationOn the concepts of risk, vulnerability and mitigation Recurrence and the difference between disaster and Recurrence and the difference between disaster and

risk managementrisk management Disaster valuation as a tool for reconstruction, Disaster valuation as a tool for reconstruction,

mitigation and the use of planning as a cross-cutting mitigation and the use of planning as a cross-cutting tool for a more resilient development process.tool for a more resilient development process.

Usefulness of historical records both in terms of Usefulness of historical records both in terms of probability of recurrence and damages incurred and probability of recurrence and damages incurred and expectedexpected

Some figures and examples in Latin America and the Some figures and examples in Latin America and the CaribbeanCaribbean


Discussions points: Present Discussions points: Present achievementsachievements

A longstanding methodology for assessing the (direct) losses and A longstanding methodology for assessing the (direct) losses and (indirect) damages that compile the impact of a major natural disaster(indirect) damages that compile the impact of a major natural disaster

Developed by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Developed by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), seen as both a fund raising instrument to present to Caribbean (ECLAC), seen as both a fund raising instrument to present to the donor community and a planning tool for recoverythe donor community and a planning tool for recovery is increasingly systematically applied by the World Bank and is increasingly systematically applied by the World Bank and

regional development banks to provide the basis and / or regional development banks to provide the basis and / or justification for multilateral loans for reconstructionjustification for multilateral loans for reconstruction

accepted by governments, donors, the IFIs and the UN system and accepted by governments, donors, the IFIs and the UN system and capacities have been developed at all levels for its application capacities have been developed at all levels for its application following disasters. following disasters.

A cross-cutting, multisectoral, inteinstitutional toolA cross-cutting, multisectoral, inteinstitutional toolA major drawback: it is demand driven, so depends on whether A major drawback: it is demand driven, so depends on whether

governments see the need to use it or not. Does not allow for a governments see the need to use it or not. Does not allow for a systematic, ongoing data gathering processsystematic, ongoing data gathering process


Discussion points: Gaps or perceived needs Discussion points: Gaps or perceived needs towards a standardized methodologytowards a standardized methodology

Define what is it forDefine what is it for Determine differenced between damage /losses assessments from needs Determine differenced between damage /losses assessments from needs

assessmentsassessments See successive assessments as complementary not competitive toolsSee successive assessments as complementary not competitive tools Not to overwhelm governments in time of crisis with repetitive questions and Not to overwhelm governments in time of crisis with repetitive questions and

assessment missionsassessment missions Governments give an uneven response to these initiatives and local or national Governments give an uneven response to these initiatives and local or national

capacities have not been developed in high risk countries.capacities have not been developed in high risk countries. There is a lack of consensus as to how to fill the gap: There is a lack of consensus as to how to fill the gap:

Within the UN system, or Within the UN system, or amongst a cadre of expertsamongst a cadre of experts

The questions remains: how to apply such a methodology in practiceThe questions remains: how to apply such a methodology in practice Need to standardize criteria / definitionsNeed to standardize criteria / definitions Reinforce pre-disaster base line data collectionReinforce pre-disaster base line data collection Train relevant national officials / institutionsTrain relevant national officials / institutions


SensibilitySensibility

Response Response CapabilityCapability

Probability of Probability of occurrenceoccurrence

TypeType

MagnitudeMagnitude

IntensityIntensity

Speed and velocitySpeed and velocity

PersistencePersistence

RecurrenceRecurrence


Social Social sectorsectorss

InfrastructInfrastructure and ure and servicesservices

ProductivProductive sectorse sectors

EnvironmEnvironmentent

Mudslides Mudslides and silt and silt depositsdeposits

Landslips, Landslips, avalanches avalanches and erosionand erosion

GroundsweGroundswells, sea lls, sea surges and surges and high waveshigh waves

Flooding Flooding and rainand rain

Dynamic interaction between sectors and Dynamic interaction between sectors and activities with natural occurrences:activities with natural occurrences:

Vulnerability and mitigationVulnerability and mitigation


**

Avoid Avoid improvisationimprovisation

LEVEL OF RISK AND LEVEL OF RISK AND ENSUING NEGATIVE ENSUING NEGATIVE IMPACT IS REDUCEDIMPACT IS REDUCED

POST-POST-DISASTER DISASTER RESPONSERESPONSE

COOPERATION AND COOPERATION AND SYNERGIES TO SYNERGIES TO

ACCELERATE ACCELERATE RECOVERYRECOVERY

DOCUMENT AND VALUE DOCUMENT AND VALUE NEEDS AND RESPONSENEEDS AND RESPONSE

PLAN RECONSTRUCITON PLAN RECONSTRUCITON TO INCREASE RESILIENCE TO INCREASE RESILIENCE

AND REDUCE AND REDUCE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

EXPERIENCE IS EXPERIENCE IS NOT FORGOTTEN NOT FORGOTTEN AND EXPERIENCE AND EXPERIENCE

LEADS TO LEADS TO MITIGATION AND MITIGATION AND

ADAPTATIONADAPTATION

BREAK THE VICIOUS CIRCLE OF DISASTERSBREAK THE VICIOUS CIRCLE OF DISASTERSAdapted from Mora, “El impacto de los desastres, aspectos sociales, políticos económicos, ambientales y su relación con el desarrollo de nuestros países (BID/IADB, 1999)Adapted from Mora, “El impacto de los desastres, aspectos sociales, políticos económicos, ambientales y su relación con el desarrollo de nuestros países (BID/IADB, 1999)

DISASTERDISASTER


Vicious circle: Man, Vicious circle: Man, Environment, DisastersEnvironment, Disasters

Human actions Human actions progressively progressively deteriorate the deteriorate the environmentenvironment

Natural phenomena Natural phenomena affect the environment affect the environment (positively / negatively)(positively / negatively)

Impact of disasters Impact of disasters tends to increasetends to increase

NATURALNATURALPHENOMENAPHENOMENA

HUMANHUMANACTIONSACTIONS

ENVIRONMENTENVIRONMENT

Risk Risk AssessmentAssessment

Policy Policy strategiesstrategies

Poverty Poverty reductionreduction

DISASTER RISK DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT

Economic Economic assessmentassessment

RESOURCERESOURCE

MOBILIZATIONMOBILIZATIONM

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National planningNational planning

Or the link between disasters, poverty and Or the link between disasters, poverty and developmentdevelopment


Impacts, development and adaptation: Impacts, development and adaptation: reduce risk by managing vulnerability and reduce risk by managing vulnerability and assessing adaptation needs and costsassessing adaptation needs and costs

PROCESSES (DRIVERS) VULNERABILITIES (RESPONSES)

CLIMATE AND OTHER NATURAL STRESSORS

Globalization, poverty, urbanization,

demographic movements (aging, migration, etc.)

Built infrastructure, settlements, economic

and other human activities, habitats and

ecosystems

Scientific information and modelling: from past data

to forecasting

COPING CAPACITY: awareness, cost/benefit, market and non-market

instruments

SENSITIVITY: resources and capital (human, social, economic)

EXPOSURES: multi-hazard and change over

time


The images we The images we seesee

The figures we The figures we determinedetermine


The case of hurricane Mitch in Central AmericaThe case of hurricane Mitch in Central America

SECTOR DIRECT

DAMAGE

INDIRECT

DAMAGE

T OT AL

DAMAGE

TOTAL 3,096.50 1,656.60 4,752.90SOCIAL SECTORS 547.2 184.5 731.6Housing 444.9 99.9 544.8Health 59.7 74.1 133.8Education 42.5 10.5 53INFRASTRUCTURE 610.2 430.3 1,040.50Roads, bridges, railways 535.4 385.1 920.5Water and sanitation 47.3 16.6 63.9Energy 27.7 28.6 56.3PRODUCTIVE SECTORS 1,871.70 1,041.10 2,912.80Agriculture, livestock,

fisheries and forestry

1,759.00 510.5 2,269.50

Manufacturing Industry 32.8 301.9 334.7Trade, Restaurants, Hotels 79.9 228.7 308.6ENVIRONMENT 67.3 0.7 68

CENT RAL AMERICA - SUMMARY OF DAMAGES (US$ millions)

HONDURAS NICARAGUA GUATEMALA EL SALVADOR TOTAL

1. Dead 5,657 2,863 268 240 9,028

2. Missing 8,058 948 121 19 9,146

3. Wounded 12,272 388 280 n.a. 12,940

4. In Shelters 285,000 65,271 50,000 55,864 456,135

5. Total Evacuated 617,831 370,641 108,594 84,316 1,181,382

6. Total Affected Population 4,753,537 867,752 734,198 346,910 6,702,397

7. Total Population 6,203,188 4,492,700 11,645,900 6,075,536 28,417,324

8. Percentage Affected 76.6 19.3 6.3 5.7 23.6

THE HUMAN TOLL


The El Salvador 2001 The El Salvador 2001 earthquakesearthquakes

DepartamentAffected

population Deaths Injured Disappeared % of total

Total 1,412,938 1,142 7,919 92 22.25

Ahuachapán 67,784 0 80 - 20.97

Cabañas 3,736 0 7 - 2.35

Chalatenango 492 0 4 - 0.24

Cuscatlán 143,860 185 1,415 43 68.79

La Libertad 143,215 585 1,364 - 21.18

La Paz 302,855 90 959 12 101.57

La Unión 12,523 1 8 - 4.20

Morazán 180 1 3 - 0.10

San Miguel 62,708 19 43 - 12.86

San Salvador 41,559 28 386 1 2.09

San Vicente 158,838 116 1,273 36 95.99

Santa Ana 38,432 47 295 - 6.87

Sonsonate 96,402 44 1,295 - 21.34

Usulután 340,354 26 787 - 96.56

Total Direct Indirect Public Private

Total 1,603.8 938.8 665.0 566.7 1,037.3

Social Sector 616.7 496.4 120.3 237.7 379.0 Education 210.5 190.4 20.1 68.6 141.9 Health 72.4 55.9 16.5 72.4 - Housing 333.8 250.1 83.7 96.7 237.1

Infrastructure 472.3 96.7 375.6 171.2 301.2 Electricity 16.4 3.2 13.2 3.3 13.2 Water and Sewerage 23.1 18.7 4.4 13.1 10.0 Transport, communications 432.8 74.8 358.0 154.8 278.0

Productive sectors 339.3 243.7 95.6 15.3 324.1 Agriculture, Fisheries 93.1 38.5 54.6 13.4 79.8 Industry, Commerce, Tourism 246.2 205.2 41.0 1.9 244.3

Environment 102.5 102.0 0.5 102.5 -

By property:

Summary of Cumulative Damage


Belize’s recent hurricanes Belize’s recent hurricanes (Keith and Iris)(Keith and Iris)

Estimated af f ected population due to Hurricane Keith

Location

Total af f ected population (Primary)

Secondary af f ected Total

As percentage of 2000 Census Census Figure

Total of affected districts 26,230 31,173 57,403 45.7% 125,535Belize District 12,697 14,611 27,308 43.5% 62,729 Caye Caulker 279 0 279 37.6% 742 San Pedro 3,000 0 3,000 66.7% 4,499 Belize City 2,943 11,774 14,717 30.0% 49,059 Rest of district 6,475 2,828 9,303 98.8% 9,415Orange Walk District 10,362 3,764 14,126 53.8% 26,244Corozal District 2,006 9,350 11,356 42.5% 26,748Cayo District 1,165 3,448 4,613 47.0% 9,814

DistrictPopulation Af f ected

(Primary)Population

Af f ected Injuries Deaths

Toledo 11,225Stann Creek 10,343 5 22Other/All Districts 14,321 1Total 21,568 72,000 5 23

Preliminary Estimate of Number of People Af f ected by Direct Impact of Hurricane Iris


Belize’s recent hurricanes Belize’s recent hurricanes (Keith and Iris)(Keith and Iris)

DIRECT DAMAGE

INDIRECT DAMAGE

TOTAL

Total 211.64 68.41 280.05Social sector 36.65 1.12 37.77Infrastructure 26.52 17.92 44.44Economic productive sectors 116.11 49.18 165.29Environment 24.53 0.00 24.53Miscellaneous 5.24 0.19 5.43Emergency expenditures - 0.19 0.19Foreign Assistance 2.59 0.00 2.59

GDP 45.7Exports 78.8Imports 64.3Gross Capital Forjmation 92.0Domestic Savings 45.5Consumption 12.7

US MILLIONHURRICANE KEITH

Total damage as % of previous year:

HURRICANE IRISUS MILLION

DIRECT DAMAGE INDIRECT DAMAGE

TOTAL

TOTAL 160.73 49.03 209.76Economic Productive sectors 35.79 47.13 82.91

Agriculture 18.93 37.62 56.55

Fisheries 1.71 1.82 3.53Aquaculture 1.27 0.00 1.27Tourism 13.88 7.69 21.57Industry and commerce 0.00 0.00 ...Infrastructure 1.60 1.21 2.81Roads, bridges, streets 1.60 1.21 2.81Telecommunication, energy, etc. 0.00 0.00 ...Social Sectors 123.35 0.69 124.04Health 100.31 ... 100.31Housing 23.04 0.69 23.73Education ... ... ...Environmental impact ... ... ...


Belize real GDP growth: Belize real GDP growth: Impact of Keith and IrisImpact of Keith and Iris

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002/p

REAL GDP Growth (observed) GDP (if disaster had not occurred)


Projects identified for reconstruction Projects identified for reconstruction after Keith (according to ECLAC)after Keith (according to ECLAC)

TOTAL 211.6 100.0%Social sectors 101.6 48.0% Health and sanitation 5.3 2.5% Education 3.0 1.4% Housing 93.3 44.1%Infrastructure 46.3 21.9% Energy, water supply, santiation and telecommunications 12.9 6.1% Transportation 33.4 15.8%Productive sectors 52.5 24.8% Agriculture 51.4 24.3% Tourism 1.1 0.5%Environmental management 11.2 5.3%Prevention and mitigation 0.0 0.0%

TOTAL PROJECTS TO RECOV ER DAMAGE AND INCREASE RESILIENCE


How do we get these figures?How do we get these figures?SEQUENCE OF EFFECTSSEQUENCE OF EFFECTS

PHENOMENON:PHENOMENON:

CharacteristicsCharacteristics (physical description, (physical description, typology and context) typology and context)

EFFECTS:EFFECTS: directdirectindirectindirect

LINKAGESLINKAGESHazard Hazard Damage of Risk Damage of Risk VulnerabilityVulnerability manifested in disastermanifested in disaster


The importance of scientific The importance of scientific research and informationresearch and information

Have reliable information on Have reliable information on the type of eventthe type of event

Build prediction scenariosBuild prediction scenarios Know the evolution of Know the evolution of

successive, cumulative successive, cumulative eventsevents

Allow early warning, Allow early warning, prevention, mitigation and prevention, mitigation and reductionreduction

Make information available Make information available and understandable by and understandable by affected or exposed affected or exposed populationpopulation


TYPE OF HAZARDS IN DEVELOPING LATIN AMERICA:TYPE OF HAZARDS IN DEVELOPING LATIN AMERICA: VOLCANIC , VOLCANIC ,

SISMICSISMIC STORMS AND HURRICANESSTORMS AND HURRICANES


BASIC RISK FORMULABASIC RISK FORMULA

HAZARDHAZARD VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY RISK (calculation RISK (calculation

made on the made on the basis or exposure basis or exposure to the recurrence to the recurrence of event (hazard) of event (hazard) given existing given existing resilience (or lack resilience (or lack of it of it (vulnerability)(vulnerability)

Risk factors are dual:Risk factors are dual: Probability of hazard to materializeProbability of hazard to materialize

Vulnerability derived from material, social and Vulnerability derived from material, social and

political conditions that define existing political conditions that define existing

framework such as:framework such as:

Marginalisation, Marginalisation,

Informality,Informality,

Pauperization,Pauperization,

Conditions of human settlements and Conditions of human settlements and

localisation of productive activities (primary, localisation of productive activities (primary,

industrial, tertiary or services) and their industrial, tertiary or services) and their

linkage among them and with the linkage among them and with the

environment.environment.


The importance of economic The importance of economic assessment of damage and needsassessment of damage and needs

Have a record on damage caused by Have a record on damage caused by past eventspast events

Establish link between level of Establish link between level of damage and magnitude or strength damage and magnitude or strength of a certain category of eventof a certain category of event

Value losses to quantify needs for Value losses to quantify needs for rehabilitation and reconstructionrehabilitation and reconstruction

Put in evidence the benefits of Put in evidence the benefits of mitigation and reductionmitigation and reduction

Make information available to Make information available to potentially affected or exposed potentially affected or exposed communities (stakeholders)communities (stakeholders)


Main ConceptsMain ConceptsDamage (Stocks)Damage (Stocks) Impact on assetsImpact on assets

InfrastructureInfrastructure CapitalCapital StocksStocks

Occur immediately Occur immediately during or after the during or after the phenomenon that phenomenon that caused the disastercaused the disaster

Losses (Flows)Losses (Flows) Effects on flowsEffects on flows

ProductionProduction Reduced income and Reduced income and

increased expensesincreased expenses Are perceived after the Are perceived after the

phenomenon, for a time-phenomenon, for a time-period that can last from period that can last from weeks to months, till weeks to months, till recuperation occursrecuperation occurs


Social SectorsSocial Sectors HousingHousing HealthHealth Education, culture, Education, culture,

sportssports InfrastructureInfrastructure

Transport and Transport and communicationscommunications

EnergyEnergy Water and sewerageWater and sewerage

Productive sectors Productive sectors Goods: agriculture, industryGoods: agriculture, industry Services: commerce, Services: commerce,

tourism, etc.tourism, etc.

Global impactGlobal impact On the environmentOn the environment Gender perspectiveGender perspective Employment and social Employment and social

conditionsconditions Macroeconomic Macroeconomic

assessmentassessment

SECTOR BY SECTOR VALUATION SECTOR BY SECTOR VALUATION METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY


SOME STRATEGIC SOME STRATEGIC DEFINITIONSDEFINITIONS

RISK REDUCTION RISK REDUCTION AND RISK AND RISK MANAGEMENT MANAGEMENT encompasses encompasses actions “before”, actions “before”, “during” and “during” and “after”“after”

Actions (programmes, project) with the objective of Actions (programmes, project) with the objective of counteracting (reducing the negative impact) of an counteracting (reducing the negative impact) of an occurrence, before it occurs.occurrence, before it occurs.

Include:Include: Allocation of resources to reinforce structures, Allocation of resources to reinforce structures,

redesign or alter existing elements to reduce redesign or alter existing elements to reduce vulnerability in addition to training and organisation vulnerability in addition to training and organisation (including at the community level): RISK (including at the community level): RISK MANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT

Allocation of resources to transfer risk (ISURANCE), Allocation of resources to transfer risk (ISURANCE), spread over time (DISASTER MANAGEMENT FUNDS) spread over time (DISASTER MANAGEMENT FUNDS) or advance payment of damage and losses or advance payment of damage and losses (CATASTROPHIC ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL (CATASTROPHIC ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS)INSTRUMENTS)


Some figures on the impact of Some figures on the impact of disasters in Latin America and the disasters in Latin America and the CaribbeanCaribbean

Deaths (1972-2003) 110,000 0.02%

Directly affected population (primary) (thousands) 15,000 2.68%

Total affected population (‘000) 160,000 28.57%

Total Damage (millions of dollars) 65,000

Yearly average amount (millions of dollars) 2,300

As percentage of exports of goods and services 0.55%

As percentage of foreign direct investment 7.92%

Source: ECLAC


Impact of major recent Impact of major recent disastersdisasters

PERIOD

TOTAL DIRECT INDIRECT

EffectsExternal

sector

1998-1999 31,845 14,922 16,923 8,6772000-2001 3,614 2,210 1,478 8662002-2003 1,529 864 665 366TOTAL 36,988 17,996 19,067 9,909

TOTAL DAMAGE (millions of dollars de 2000)


How to move ahead… How to move ahead… immediatelyimmediately Identify concrete case studies ideasIdentify concrete case studies ideas

Linked to obtaining funding Linked to obtaining funding Linked to hydro meteorological managementLinked to hydro meteorological management Linked to strategy formulationLinked to strategy formulation Linked to poverty reduction strategies (MDG)Linked to poverty reduction strategies (MDG)

Identify willingness to provide support (access to Identify willingness to provide support (access to information and experts as resource people, services, information and experts as resource people, services, organize national seminars)organize national seminars)

Willingness to get results to policy makersWillingness to get results to policy makers Show results to worldwide audienceShow results to worldwide audience

Timeframe for submission of interest in case study (2 Timeframe for submission of interest in case study (2 weeks)weeks)

Conduct study (3 to 4 months)Conduct study (3 to 4 months) National seminar (depending on circumsances)National seminar (depending on circumsances) Regional seminar (October or November)Regional seminar (October or November) Presentation in Kobe (January 2005)Presentation in Kobe (January 2005)


Some figures of disasters’ impact in the Some figures of disasters’ impact in the CaribbeanCaribbean

Disaster

Impact on the economy (as

percentage of GDP)Relative damage to total f iscal income

Relative damage to total public debt

Relative damage to

total exportsEarthquake in Antigua and Barbuda (8 October 1974) 2.3 56.6 72.0 13.2Hurricanes Davi8d and Federico, Dominican Republic (August September 1979) 16.0 115.4 75.5 120.0Hurricane David in Dominica (August 1979) 296.5 1020.5 705.9Huricane Luis in Anguilla (1995) 94.0

Hurricanes Luis and Marilyn in Sint Maarten (Septemver 1995) 223.7 1672.7

Hurricane Georges in Saint Kitts and Nevis (September 1998) 193.3 691.2 1819.4Hurricane Georges in Dominican Republic (September 1998) 14.0 94.7 62.0 43.7Hurricane Lenny in Anguilla (November 1999) 146.2Hurricane Keith in Belize (November 1999) 45.7 78.8Hurricane Iris in Belize (October 2001) 38.5 65.0Hurricane Michelle in Jamaica (October 2001) 8.0 2.8 201.1Floods in Jamaica (May-June 2002) 0.7 4.0Average 89.9 522.0 669.8 339.0Source: ECLAC estimates on the basis of evaluations made at the request of Governments


Source: Overview of Hydro-meteorological Disasters in Asia, Ti Le-Huu, Water Resources Section, Environment and Sustainable Development Division, UNESCAP


As percentage of GDP (yearly average)

persons affected (yearly average) Major type of dysaster

China 3 to 6% 25 to 50 million Floods, earthquakes and firesBangladesh 30 million Floods and droughtCambodia .5 to 1 million Floods

IndonesiaFloods, typhoons, drought and fires

Laos 5 to 10% .5 million Floods, landslides, river bank erosion, drought and fires

Philippines Typhoons, floods and landsildesPakistan Floods and drought

VietnamFloods, typhoons and storm surges (flash floods)

Average for the region (ECLAC estimate) 10 to 15% 80 to 100 million

Floods, typhoons, landslides, drought and fires

Disasters' impact in Asia

Source: National papers presented at ESCAP Regional Workshop, May 2004


**SOCIAL SOCIAL

STABILITYSTABILITY

SECURITYSECURITY

((ReducedReduced

Vulnerability)Vulnerability)

GOOD GOOD GOVERNANCEGOVERNANCE

ECONOMIC ECONOMIC RECOVERYRECOVERY

BREAKING THE CYCLE OF CONFLICT AND RESUMING THE BREAKING THE CYCLE OF CONFLICT AND RESUMING THE PATH OF DEVELOPMENTPATH OF DEVELOPMENTConflict Prevention and ReconstructionConflict Prevention and Reconstruction


Exposure to risk and level of development: Exposure to risk and level of development: UNDP’s Disaster Risk IndexUNDP’s Disaster Risk Index

Source: United Nations Development Programme, Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, presentation at ESCAP Regional Workshop, May 2004


WHAT IS THE ECLAC WHAT IS THE ECLAC METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY

A tool for the socio-economic and environmental A tool for the socio-economic and environmental assessment of disastersassessment of disasters

Multi-sectoral and multidisciplinary damage Multi-sectoral and multidisciplinary damage evaluation and quantification method for disaster evaluation and quantification method for disaster affected sectorsaffected sectors

Standard sectoral procedures that allows Standard sectoral procedures that allows comparability of resultscomparability of results

Instrument for the decision making process and for Instrument for the decision making process and for policy formulation as it identifies more severely policy formulation as it identifies more severely affected sectors, geographical areas and vulnerable affected sectors, geographical areas and vulnerable groupsgroups

Conceptual improvement for measuring aspects not Conceptual improvement for measuring aspects not included in national accounting and assessing included in national accounting and assessing specific vulnerability (of social groups, such as specific vulnerability (of social groups, such as women and the environment)women and the environment)


Some things are easier to Some things are easier to measure than othersmeasure than others IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINEIT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE

The value of lives lost or affectedThe value of lives lost or affected The opportunity cost, cost-benefit or investment / profitability. The opportunity cost, cost-benefit or investment / profitability.

This is associated with the lack of adequate base lines that assess This is associated with the lack of adequate base lines that assess the level, quality and efficiency / efficacy of health services the level, quality and efficiency / efficacy of health services providedprovided

The value and quality of services provided (both curative and The value and quality of services provided (both curative and preventive) preventive)

The duration of the transition / emergency phase (when field The duration of the transition / emergency phase (when field hospitals and evacuation processes are operational)hospitals and evacuation processes are operational)

IT IS EASIER TO DETERMINEIT IS EASIER TO DETERMINE The amount of investment required for reinforcement vs. The The amount of investment required for reinforcement vs. The

potential losses in equipment and inventories potential losses in equipment and inventories The cost of reinforcement as compared to the reposition cost of The cost of reinforcement as compared to the reposition cost of

affected infrastructureaffected infrastructure The alternative cost of providing services when infrastructures The alternative cost of providing services when infrastructures

collapsecollapse


WHAT IT DOES:WHAT IT DOES:

Allows projecting future performance of the affected Allows projecting future performance of the affected economy in the short and medium term, and implement the economy in the short and medium term, and implement the necessary corrective economic policy measuresnecessary corrective economic policy measures

Allows to determine the State’s capacity to face Allows to determine the State’s capacity to face reconstruction tasks and determine needs for cooperation reconstruction tasks and determine needs for cooperation and international financingand international financing

Facilitates training in damage valuation and formulation of Facilitates training in damage valuation and formulation of mitigation strategiesmitigation strategies

Involves affected population with relevant authorities and Involves affected population with relevant authorities and aid providersaid providers

Puts in evidence the systemic character of the Puts in evidence the systemic character of the development process and the interaction among sectors development process and the interaction among sectors and stakeholdersand stakeholders


ECLAC’s additional toolsECLAC’s additional tools

Through the use of REDATAM (a Through the use of REDATAM (a software developed to geo-reference software developed to geo-reference information of household surveys) it information of household surveys) it has been possible to visualize the has been possible to visualize the changing map of poverty and welfare changing map of poverty and welfare reduction caused by disasters (as reduction caused by disasters (as exemplified in the El Salvador exemplified in the El Salvador earthquakes of 2002)earthquakes of 2002)


ORGANIZATION OR PROCEDURAL ORGANIZATION OR PROCEDURAL ASPECTS OF ASSESSMENT ASPECTS OF ASSESSMENT EXERCISESEXERCISES

Composition of team: multisectoral, interdisciplinary, Composition of team: multisectoral, interdisciplinary, interinstitutionalinterinstitutional

Timeliness: within the “window of opportunity”, not Timeliness: within the “window of opportunity”, not interfering with emergency actionsinterfering with emergency actions

Ensure full coverage and avoid duplicationEnsure full coverage and avoid duplication The need for “judgment calls” or the educated The need for “judgment calls” or the educated

guessing of expertsguessing of experts Difference between emergency needs and rapid Difference between emergency needs and rapid

assessment of need for reconstructionassessment of need for reconstruction


Some crucial issues in the Some crucial issues in the reconstruction processreconstruction process

• After a disaster the previous conditions are After a disaster the previous conditions are never achieved: the results of reconstruction never achieved: the results of reconstruction leads to a new stage of vulnerability and risk leads to a new stage of vulnerability and risk in the face of expected or known hazardsin the face of expected or known hazards


Internal policies:Internal policies:Include vulnerability reduction and Include vulnerability reduction and risk management and transfer as an risk management and transfer as an objective of development plans objective of development plans alongside goals of:alongside goals of:•Competitive growthCompetitive growth•Equitable developmentEquitable development•Sustainable and sustained Sustainable and sustained developmentdevelopment•Social participationSocial participation

External policies:External policies:Introduce risk Introduce risk management as part management as part of the regional of the regional international agenda, international agenda, alongside:alongside:•External competitive External competitive insertioninsertion•Benefiting from the Benefiting from the globalization processglobalization process•Inclusive regional Inclusive regional insertioninsertion

Sectoral components:Sectoral components:•Monitoring, analysis and climate Monitoring, analysis and climate forecasting, including forest firesforecasting, including forest fires•Contingency plans in key sectors, for Contingency plans in key sectors, for example:example:

•Agriculture, cattle raising, Agriculture, cattle raising, •rural poverty, rural poverty, •energy and baselinesenergy and baselines•Water and healthWater and health

•Interconnected systemsInterconnected systems•Regulation of basic services with Regulation of basic services with sponsorship of private enterprisesponsorship of private enterprise•Focalized plans for vulnerable groups, Focalized plans for vulnerable groups, including employment, food availability including employment, food availability and nutritionand nutrition•Education to reduce vulnerabilityEducation to reduce vulnerability•Diagnosis and monitoring of Diagnosis and monitoring of vulnerability at the local levelvulnerability at the local level

Proposed Proposed courses of courses of actionaction

Restore economic and Restore economic and social fabricsocial fabricRestore and strengthen Restore and strengthen productive linkages productive linkages (upstream/downstream) (upstream/downstream) Reduce internal / external Reduce internal / external vulnerabilityvulnerability


FUTURE DEVELOPMENTFUTURE DEVELOPMENT

Lessons from past events and changing Lessons from past events and changing conditions associated with climate variability and conditions associated with climate variability and changechange

Move from “forensic” appraisal of disasters as Move from “forensic” appraisal of disasters as done for over 30 years to “preventive medicine” done for over 30 years to “preventive medicine” where valuation is a tool for disaster reductionwhere valuation is a tool for disaster reduction

Improvement and expansion of methodology in Improvement and expansion of methodology in social and environmental aspectssocial and environmental aspects

Combine the existing methodology of ECLAC Combine the existing methodology of ECLAC with econometric modeling and prospective with econometric modeling and prospective analysis and forecastinganalysis and forecasting

Train national local authorities to gather relevant Train national local authorities to gather relevant baseline data and government officials in the baseline data and government officials in the economic planning and financial ministrieseconomic planning and financial ministries

Promote mitigation policies and risk Promote mitigation policies and risk management beyond response to preventionmanagement beyond response to prevention


Where do we want to be in the Where do we want to be in the future? future? (in the medium and long term)(in the medium and long term)

Changed emphasis from relief and damage valuation after the event to Changed emphasis from relief and damage valuation after the event to use of risk management instruments and cooperation for disaster use of risk management instruments and cooperation for disaster reductionreduction

Have increasingly in place policies that include:Have increasingly in place policies that include: Economic instruments (from the public sector) Economic instruments (from the public sector) Financial products (public and private, including such as Cat Financial products (public and private, including such as Cat

Bonds, etc.) Bonds, etc.) Public and private assessment of risk and auditing of risk Public and private assessment of risk and auditing of risk

management strategies, including questions of accountability management strategies, including questions of accountability and liabilityand liability

Disaster reduction and risk management in the SIDS agendaDisaster reduction and risk management in the SIDS agenda Strategic partnerships with global, international, regional and Strategic partnerships with global, international, regional and

local institutions and actors local institutions and actors Mutual reinforcement with ACS in the Caribbean / Central Mutual reinforcement with ACS in the Caribbean / Central

America regionAmerica region


ECLAC’s current activities in the ECLAC’s current activities in the field of an interregional naturefield of an interregional nature

IDB-ECLAC project on disaster indicators and national studiesIDB-ECLAC project on disaster indicators and national studies: In this two part : In this two part project ECLAC is executing a component that, through a modified, dynamic version of the project ECLAC is executing a component that, through a modified, dynamic version of the methodology will look at the cumulative impact of disasters in selected countriesmethodology will look at the cumulative impact of disasters in selected countries

World Bank/Disaster Management Facility (DMF)-ECLACWorld Bank/Disaster Management Facility (DMF)-ECLAC work programmes first work programmes first allowed the publication in English and Spanish of the methodology and the presentation of it allowed the publication in English and Spanish of the methodology and the presentation of it beyond Latin America and the Caribbean by participating and / or organizing workshops at beyond Latin America and the Caribbean by participating and / or organizing workshops at the World Bank Headquarters (two since 2001) and with the Asian Disaster Preparedness the World Bank Headquarters (two since 2001) and with the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) in Bangkok (2001) with a regional nature and Manila (2004) at the national level Center (ADPC) in Bangkok (2001) with a regional nature and Manila (2004) at the national level with the civil defense authority. with the civil defense authority.

World Bank Institute (WBI)-ECLACWorld Bank Institute (WBI)-ECLAC collaboration in WBI regional courses by introducing collaboration in WBI regional courses by introducing in urban planning and development the disaster valuation module (in Panama, 2003, and in urban planning and development the disaster valuation module (in Panama, 2003, and Guatemala, 2004). Currently completed such module for a distance learning course that will Guatemala, 2004). Currently completed such module for a distance learning course that will be launched in a training for trainers seminar at the world level (Moscow, June 2004)be launched in a training for trainers seminar at the world level (Moscow, June 2004)


In other regionsIn other regions

ECLAC-ADPC, through a memorandum of understanding in the process ECLAC-ADPC, through a memorandum of understanding in the process of being signed, support ADPC’s activities in adapting the ECLAC of being signed, support ADPC’s activities in adapting the ECLAC methodology to Asian countries. Currently providing technical expertise methodology to Asian countries. Currently providing technical expertise to a project in Gujarat, Indiato a project in Gujarat, India

ECLAC-ESCAP, at the invitation and with the funding of ESCAP/UNDP ECLAC-ESCAP, at the invitation and with the funding of ESCAP/UNDP (Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Reduction, BCPR) participated in a (Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Reduction, BCPR) participated in a Regional Workshop on Methodologies of Assessment and their Regional Workshop on Methodologies of Assessment and their Application for Poverty Eradication and Economic Development Application for Poverty Eradication and Economic Development (Bangkok, 18 - 20 May 2004)(Bangkok, 18 - 20 May 2004)

ECLAC-ISDR, ongoing collaboration with the secretariat both at the ECLAC-ISDR, ongoing collaboration with the secretariat both at the regional level with its Latin American and Caribbean office in Costa Rica regional level with its Latin American and Caribbean office in Costa Rica and headquarters in Geneva, which allowed in the past the translation to and headquarters in Geneva, which allowed in the past the translation to French of the methodology, and now preparing collaboration for the French of the methodology, and now preparing collaboration for the participation in the 2nd. World Conference on Disaster Reduction (to be participation in the 2nd. World Conference on Disaster Reduction (to be held in Kobe, Japan, January 2005)held in Kobe, Japan, January 2005)


Concrete proposals for the Concrete proposals for the short termshort term

ECLAC – ESCAP cooperation in methodological ECLAC – ESCAP cooperation in methodological development and adaptationdevelopment and adaptation

Project pilot case studies to be undertaken with the Project pilot case studies to be undertaken with the support and cooperation of Asian countries and support and cooperation of Asian countries and UNDPUNDP provide backstopping for studies to be initiatedprovide backstopping for studies to be initiated complete these en three to four month’s timecomplete these en three to four month’s time get the results to be discussed nationally and then get the results to be discussed nationally and then

get them to be presented in Kobeget them to be presented in Kobe Participation in the 2nd. Conference on Disaster Participation in the 2nd. Conference on Disaster

Reduction (Kobe, January 2005)Reduction (Kobe, January 2005) Partnership with ISDR Secretariat Partnership with ISDR Secretariat Partnership with the World Bank and the Provention Partnership with the World Bank and the Provention

ConsortiumConsortium


What does it mean for the What does it mean for the futurefuture

Obtain resources for large amounts to Obtain resources for large amounts to fund actual mitigation investment fund actual mitigation investment projectsprojects

Advocacy to high level decision Advocacy to high level decision makersmakers

Improve capacity to analyze disaster Improve capacity to analyze disaster impact and strategy formulationimpact and strategy formulation


The ECLAC Handbook for The ECLAC Handbook for Disaster EvaluationDisaster Evaluation

1.1. Damage costs and Damage costs and estimated lossesestimated losses

2.2. Dynamic effect on Dynamic effect on growth and other growth and other variablesvariables

3.3. Composition of Composition of damage (by damage (by sectors and type)sectors and type)


GDP GROWTH RATE

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Yea

r ra

te

]Before disaster After disaster

Global dynamic effectsGlobal dynamic effects

Macroeconomic effectsMacroeconomic effects Repercussions are felt in the Repercussions are felt in the

national, local or regional economy national, local or regional economy as a consequence of the disaster as a consequence of the disaster (natural event)(natural event)

It may last for several years after the It may last for several years after the disaster, depending on the disaster, depending on the characteristics of the event, its characteristics of the event, its magnitude and the sectors / magnitude and the sectors / activities affectedactivities affected

Are measurable asAre measurable as Growth rate and level of GDPGrowth rate and level of GDP Performance of the external sector Performance of the external sector

(imports, exports, transfers and (imports, exports, transfers and investment)investment)

Performance of public financesPerformance of public finances Price variations and inflationPrice variations and inflation


CUMULATIVE IMPACT of successive CUMULATIVE IMPACT of successive disasters on gross capital formationdisasters on gross capital formation

**** **

**TIMETIME

GR

OS

S C

AP

ITA

L F

OR

MA

TIO

NG

RO

SS

CA

PIT

AL

FO

RM

AT

ION

ACTUAL CAPITAL FORMATIONACTUAL CAPITAL FORMATION

POTENTIAL GROWTH PATHPOTENTIAL GROWTH PATH** DISASTERDISASTER


Eastern Caribbean: GDP at factor pricesEastern Caribbean: GDP at factor prices

3

0.7

2.7

3.1

3.8

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998Year

An

nu

al

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Ch

an

ge

Source: Statistical Offices, OECS and ECCB


EL SALVADOR:POSSIBLE EL SALVADOR:POSSIBLE RECONSTRUCCION SCENARIOS, 2001-RECONSTRUCCION SCENARIOS, 2001-20032003

3.4

2.0

3.0 3.1 3.23.4

2.0

3.54.0 4.0

3.4

2.0

4.04.5

5.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

GDP

ann

ual g

row

th ra

te

Pessimistic

Probable

Optimstic


Disasters Impact on El Salvador´ s GDP

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Growth without disasters

Growth with Mitch, earthquakes, drought and hurricane Stan

MITCH

EARTHQUAKE

DROUGHT

STANSTAN


Impact of disasters on GDP: State of Impact of disasters on GDP: State of Gujarat, IndiaGujarat, India

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03

SGDP with disasters Potential growth without disastrs

Logarítmica (Potential growth without disastrs) Logarítmica (SGDP with disasters)


HUMANHUMAN

Health Health EducationEducation

LivelihoodsLivelihoodsHousing and shelterHousing and shelter

Cultural identityCultural identity

NATURE / ENVIRONMENTNATURE / ENVIRONMENT

Clean water, wage Clean water, wage disposal and sanitationdisposal and sanitation

Clean airClean air

Biodiversity and integrity Biodiversity and integrity of ecosystemsof ecosystems

Climate variability and Climate variability and changechange

FINANCIALFINANCIAL

Access to creditAccess to credit

Land tenure, legal rightsLand tenure, legal rights

Compensatory mechanisms and Compensatory mechanisms and fundsfunds

Insurance and financial Insurance and financial protectionprotection

PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTUREPHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

-Quality and resilience of Quality and resilience of human built environment human built environment

(settlements and rural/urban (settlements and rural/urban planning) planning)

-Transport and Transport and communications, energy and communications, energy and

other basic lifelinesother basic lifelines

-Productive infrastructureProductive infrastructure

-Other built infrastructure Other built infrastructure (public services, government (public services, government

buildings)buildings)

SOCIALSOCIAL

Social capital and Social capital and social networks social networks

(solidarity and equity) (solidarity and equity)

Family ties, gender Family ties, gender perspective and perspective and extended family extended family

networks and linksnetworks and links

Violence, security and Violence, security and rightsrights

An integrated systemic framework: the diverse An integrated systemic framework: the diverse angles of disasters’ impactsangles of disasters’ impacts

POLITICALPOLITICAL

GovernanceGovernance

TransparencyTransparency

Participation, inclusion Participation, inclusion and political rightsand political rights

Access to informationAccess to information


1

10

100HUMAN

SOCIAL

NATURAL

FINANCIAL

PHYSICAL

POLITICAL

Past Current In the medium term

In the long term AS ALTEDED BY DISASTER

How the profile of development is changed by disastersHow the profile of development is changed by disasters


Simplified Definitions of Disaster Simplified Definitions of Disaster EffectsEffects

DamageDamage

Total or partial destruction Total or partial destruction of physical assetsof physical assets

Occur during the event itselfOccur during the event itself

Valued at replacement costValued at replacement cost

LossesLosses

Changes in economic flowsChanges in economic flows

Occur after the event, over a Occur after the event, over a relatively long time periodrelatively long time period

Valued at current pricesValued at current prices

Total Effects : Damage + Total Effects : Damage + LossesLosses

Immediate EffectsImmediate Effects Medium-Term EffectsMedium-Term Effects

NEEDS NEEDS

(IMMEDIATE, (IMMEDIATE, RECOVERY AND RECOVERY AND

RECONSTRUCTION)RECONSTRUCTION)


Private investmentPrivate investmentProjects and resource fund raising

Decomposition of total damageDecomposition of total damage

•Direct damageDirect damage•Indirect effectsIndirect effects

• Asset lossesAsset losses• Production costsProduction costs• Cost increasesCost increases•Income reductionIncome reduction

•Public sectorPublic sectorPrivate sectorPrivate sector

Reconstruction costsReconstruction costs

Effects on the economyEffects on the economy

Primary damagePrimary damage

Secondary effectsSecondary effects

Tertiary impactTertiary impact

Public investmentPublic investment


Measuring the “delta” or damage gapMeasuring the “delta” or damage gapPre-existing Pre-existing

conditions (ex ante)conditions (ex ante)

Expected Expected performance (without performance (without

disaster) 3-5 yearsdisaster) 3-5 years

Disaster impact Disaster impact (ex post)(ex post)3-5 years3-5 years

The measure The measure

Of damage and lossesOf damage and losses

Upon the pre-existing situation Upon the pre-existing situation

(sector by sector baselines) is aggregated into the (sector by sector baselines) is aggregated into the national accounts and determines the resulting disaster-national accounts and determines the resulting disaster-

caused scenario, as the gap over the expected caused scenario, as the gap over the expected performance prior to the event. Several scenarios may performance prior to the event. Several scenarios may be outlined, based on the assumptions made for the be outlined, based on the assumptions made for the

reconstruction processreconstruction process


D = Va – VbD = Va – Vb

Where Va is the initial condition expected for a variable Where Va is the initial condition expected for a variable (sectoral, weighed) and Vb is the discounted effect of (sectoral, weighed) and Vb is the discounted effect of the disaster.the disaster.

K = Ka – KbK = Ka – KbMeasures the capital (assets) lost, estimated by Measures the capital (assets) lost, estimated by

compiling direct damages computed sector by compiling direct damages computed sector by sector.sector.

Y = Ya – YbY = Ya – YbMeasures the production/income lossesMeasures the production/income losses

The capital/income-production ratio is The capital/income-production ratio is generally assumed not to vary substantively generally assumed not to vary substantively as a result of the disasteras a result of the disaster


The Timing of EffectsThe Timing of Effects

Time, monthsTime, months

DamagesDamages

LossesLosses

5 or more yrs5 or more yrs

Affect:Affect:Living conditionsLiving conditionsEconomic developmentEconomic development


The Timing of Disaster Effects: a reminderThe Timing of Disaster Effects: a reminder

Time, monthsTime, months

DamageDamage

LossesLosses

5 yrs

Full Full Reconstruction Reconstruction and Economic and Economic

RecoveryRecovery

Recovery needs (fill the gap from immediate response Recovery needs (fill the gap from immediate response to recovery in order to reduce losses)to recovery in order to reduce losses)

Emergency Emergency needsneeds


International International standards orstandards orDevelopment Development goalsgoals(such as MDGs)(such as MDGs)

Recovery Recovery ObjectivesObjectives

Post disaster Post disaster situationsituation

An additional deficit is created An additional deficit is created from the pre-existing gap from the pre-existing gap between the prevalent between the prevalent situation vis-à-vis the situation vis-à-vis the development goals and the development goals and the emerging recovery objectives.emerging recovery objectives.

NewNewGapGap


ReconstructionReconstruction

DevelopmentDevelopment

EMERGENCYEMERGENCY NEEDSNEEDS

NEEDSNEEDSNEEDSNEEDS

BeforeBefore AfterAfter

DataData

PlansPlansandandProgrammesProgrammes Emergency Emergency

ResponseResponse

Post Disaster Post Disaster RecoveryRecovery

Needs AssessmentNeeds Assessment

Quick and dirtyQuick and dirty(Flash appeal)(Flash appeal)

3-7 days3-7 days

Local levelLocal levelArea basedArea basedCommunityCommunity

DrivenDriven

2 weeks2 weeks

RecoveryRecoveryFrameworkFramework

(Donors(DonorsConference)Conference)

1 month1 month

ReconstructionReconstructionStrategyStrategy

(IFIs working(IFIs workingGroup)Group)

2-3 months2-3 months

Recovery needs (fill the gap from immediate response Recovery needs (fill the gap from immediate response to reconstruction in order to reduce losses)to reconstruction in order to reduce losses)


SEQ UENCE O F D ISASTER VALUATIO N

R EIN FO R C EMEN T /R EIN G EN EER IN GPR EVEN T IO NMIT IG AT IO N

SchedulingInput a va ila b ility

Ma teria lH um a nFina cia l

Ma croeconom ic im pa ct

T EC H N O LO G IC AL IMR PO VEMEN T At present va lue costsIncludes a sset deprecia tion

C onsiders the sta te of a sset a t tim e of da m a geD iscounts la ck of m a intena ntce

R EPLAC EMEN T C O ST SB y econom ic sectors a nd a ctors

PublicPriva te

Pro ject form ula tionR econstrction a nd rep la cem ent

Mitiga tion a nd reinforcem entPrevention

MAC R O EC O N O MIC V IAB IL IT YSU ST AIN AB IL IT Y

C R ED IB IL IT Y

Absorption ca pa cityMa teria l

W ork forceInstitutuiona l

D om erstic resourcesC reditsD ona tionsInsura nce a nd reinsura nceExterna l resourcesC reditsD ona tions

Fina ncia l im plica tionsPublicPriva te

R EC O N ST R U C T IO N R EQ U IR EMEN T SB y econom ic a nd sector a ctors

PublicPriva te

VALU E O F D AMAG ESB y econom ic a ctors a nd sectors

PublicPriva te


SCHEMATIC VIEW OF THE EVALUATION PROCESSSCHEMATIC VIEW OF THE EVALUATION PROCESS

SITUATION AT OCCURENCE

(prior conditions/ without disaster )

IDENTIFICATION OF TYPE OF EFFECTS Physical (air, water, soil, land, cycles and

processes) Biological (vegetation, fa una, biological

processes, ecosystems and cycles) Perception of environment (landscape, scientific

conditions, cultural resources, etc.) Others

EXTREME EVENT

QUANTIFIABLE IMPACT AND SUBJECT TO ECONOMIC VALUATION

NON - QUANTIFICABLE IMPACT, NOT SUBJECT TO DIRECT ECONOMIC VALUATION

(Valuation by proxy)

CLASSIFICATION OF IMPACT (Damages, losses)

SOCIO - ECONOMIC VALUATION

VALUATION OF GLOBAL IMPACT

PROPOSALS TO REDUCE VULNERABILITY AND RESTORE ASSETS AND FLOWS LOST

PUBLIC POLICY

GL OBAL, MACROECONOMIC (by central or national government)

BY SECTOR AND / OR REGION (Agriculture, housing, infrastructure, environment,

natural resource management, social, etc.)


Concepts to be agreed on and harmonizedConcepts to be agreed on and harmonized

Damage (to assets)Damage (to assets) Impact on assets:Impact on assets: InfraestructureInfraestructure

CapitalCapital StocksStocks Ocurr inmediatelyduring Ocurr inmediatelyduring

or after the disasteror after the disaster

Losses (Flows) Effects on

Production Income Yields Livelihoods

Perceived after the disaster for a period of time that may vary and includes additonal costs or expenditures by individuals, enterprises, government, communities till the recovery process is completed


Concepts to be agreed uponConcepts to be agreed upon

Needs (determined with the Needs (determined with the affected community and affected community and stakeholders)stakeholders)

Impacto on assets and Impacto on assets and livelihoodslivelihoods

Determined in a participatory Determined in a participatory “negotiated” process where the “negotiated” process where the recovery of the affected is recovery of the affected is “owned” , planned and “owned” , planned and executed by the stakeholdersexecuted by the stakeholders

Recovery, reconstruction and resilience Risk reduction andd resilience Mitigation, risk transfer and risk dispersion

(sharing) Strengthening response capacity (pre disaster

recovery planning) Early warning and prevention All to be incorporated in the “back to

development path” : “build back better” = B3

¨not build back” = B-2

¨boost resilience for development = BRD


Differences between Differences between damage, losses and needsdamage, losses and needs

How they are registered and accounted forHow they are registered and accounted for Damage and losses tend to be an economic / quantification of the Damage and losses tend to be an economic / quantification of the

(additional) gap generated by a disaster(additional) gap generated by a disaster Needs spread over time, sectors and different socioeconomic and cultural Needs spread over time, sectors and different socioeconomic and cultural

groups (hence the need for engendering)groups (hence the need for engendering) From the emergency (shelters, immediate supplies, clothing, food, From the emergency (shelters, immediate supplies, clothing, food,

medicines) tomedicines) to Early recovery to recovery andEarly recovery to recovery and Reconstruction needs (asset restitution and loss compensation)Reconstruction needs (asset restitution and loss compensation)

The proposal of a data management tool coordination and / or integration The proposal of a data management tool coordination and / or integration (allow delivery of results to successive stages)(allow delivery of results to successive stages)


CONSIDERATION OF REPLACEMENT COSTS OR CONSIDERATION OF REPLACEMENT COSTS OR VALUATION FOR RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTIONVALUATION FOR RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION

Replacement value is assigned on “as is” basis: Replacement value is assigned on “as is” basis: present value of assets present value of assets including depreciation, tear and wear and level of maintenance or repair, including depreciation, tear and wear and level of maintenance or repair, actual replacement (at current costs of similar good), not reconstruction actual replacement (at current costs of similar good), not reconstruction (improved, less risky, technologically upgraded, etc.)(improved, less risky, technologically upgraded, etc.)

In the productive sectors replacement costs imply in addition to the In the productive sectors replacement costs imply in addition to the damage or destruction in assets (infrastructure, etc.) the losses in damage or destruction in assets (infrastructure, etc.) the losses in production (except stocks or stored products), income lost and production (except stocks or stored products), income lost and production that will not be obtained due to the event, and investment production that will not be obtained due to the event, and investment that will have to be made to recuperate a similar production level to pre-that will have to be made to recuperate a similar production level to pre-hurricane levels. hurricane levels. This preliminary estimate will vary in time, according to This preliminary estimate will vary in time, according to price fluctuations in the coming months, financial resources available price fluctuations in the coming months, financial resources available and time-frame associated with investment maturity and natural growth and time-frame associated with investment maturity and natural growth of plants or restoration of plantation and cattle stock’s reproductive of plants or restoration of plantation and cattle stock’s reproductive cycle in the case of agriculture.cycle in the case of agriculture.


From replacement to resilienceFrom replacement to resilience

In household replacement costs imply restoration of housing In household replacement costs imply restoration of housing (rebuilding, repair, etc.) in addition to land development when (rebuilding, repair, etc.) in addition to land development when resettlement is warranted, as well as rental increases, income resettlement is warranted, as well as rental increases, income losses and household contents. losses and household contents. Livelihood losses associated Livelihood losses associated with house-located or home-made goods and services are an with house-located or home-made goods and services are an additional element to be considered in the total losses.additional element to be considered in the total losses.

Determine from the identification of needs (as assessed at the Determine from the identification of needs (as assessed at the local level and strengthening the social impacts of disaster) the local level and strengthening the social impacts of disaster) the actual resources required, both for budgetary considerations actual resources required, both for budgetary considerations and to appeal for external, additional cooperation and and to appeal for external, additional cooperation and necessary technical cooperation to reduce risk and promote necessary technical cooperation to reduce risk and promote resilient sustainable recovery processesresilient sustainable recovery processes


Measurement and valuation:Measurement and valuation:economic growtheconomic growth

Measure of economic activity based Measure of economic activity based on sectoral data and at current priceson sectoral data and at current prices

Need to express GDP in constant Need to express GDP in constant pricesprices

Need to use constant disaster year Need to use constant disaster year pricesprices

Estimation of forescast scenariosEstimation of forescast scenarios


Measurement and valuation:Measurement and valuation:investmentinvestment

Interruption/suspention of investment Interruption/suspention of investment

projectsprojects

Inventory lossesInventory losses

Factory and equipment destructionFactory and equipment destruction

Disruption of trade channelsDisruption of trade channels


Phases in macroeconmic Phases in macroeconmic assessmentassessment Quantifiable effects of the disaster on Quantifiable effects of the disaster on

the economic growth as a whole and the economic growth as a whole and on the main aggregates on the main aggregates GDPGDP National incomeNational income Investment, gross capital formationInvestment, gross capital formation Economic gaps (private, public, Economic gaps (private, public,

external)external) Inflation, balance of paymentsInflation, balance of payments


Basic stepsBasic steps

Macroeconomic assessment Macroeconomic assessment sequencesequence

Role of the macroeconomistRole of the macroeconomist Establishment of a baselineEstablishment of a baseline Assessment of the economic Assessment of the economic

situation following the disaster situation following the disaster (effects on economic growth and (effects on economic growth and income and then on private, fiscal and income and then on private, fiscal and external accountsexternal accounts


Know the pre-existing situationKnow the pre-existing situation

Identify the core development factors of the economyIdentify the core development factors of the economy Identify the main characteristics at the time of the disaster: face Identify the main characteristics at the time of the disaster: face

of the economic cycle, seasonal elements, indebtedness level, of the economic cycle, seasonal elements, indebtedness level, domestic savings, FDI flows, etc.domestic savings, FDI flows, etc.

Access the macroeconomic data bases from national Access the macroeconomic data bases from national authorities, academic analysts and/or consultants and advisors authorities, academic analysts and/or consultants and advisors in the countryin the country

Identify existing econometric models for the local economyIdentify existing econometric models for the local economy Identify if input-output tables are available or determine Identify if input-output tables are available or determine

weighing factors that indicate inter-sectoral linkages.weighing factors that indicate inter-sectoral linkages.


Acknowledge the expected or projected Acknowledge the expected or projected outcome in the absence of disasteroutcome in the absence of disaster

Obtain from government, academics and/or advisors and private Obtain from government, academics and/or advisors and private consultants the existing scenarios or short and medium term consultants the existing scenarios or short and medium term projections before the disasterprojections before the disaster

Build a price table at current value for the disaster period with at Build a price table at current value for the disaster period with at least five year projections. There may have been more than one least five year projections. There may have been more than one pre-disaster scenario for the main economic variablespre-disaster scenario for the main economic variables

Build a constant-value (real magnitude) series for the main Build a constant-value (real magnitude) series for the main variables (using the country’s base year, either in local currency variables (using the country’s base year, either in local currency or US dollarsor US dollars

Establish the rate of exchange that will be used for the valuationEstablish the rate of exchange that will be used for the valuation


Determine the situation caused Determine the situation caused by the disasterby the disaster

Stemming from sector valuations assess the value-added Stemming from sector valuations assess the value-added changes expected for every sector in the short term and for a changes expected for every sector in the short term and for a medium-term period to be agreed (3-5 years or more)medium-term period to be agreed (3-5 years or more)

Supported by input-output tables or sector weighing factors Supported by input-output tables or sector weighing factors determine the projection of damages of one sector to the othersdetermine the projection of damages of one sector to the others

A damage scenario is built (taking into account the measured A damage scenario is built (taking into account the measured losses at replacement value) : variations in the main economic losses at replacement value) : variations in the main economic gaps is highlighted: external sector, fiscal deficit, internal gaps is highlighted: external sector, fiscal deficit, internal equilibrium (prices, exchange rate, etc.)equilibrium (prices, exchange rate, etc.)


Appropriation of risk needed to Appropriation of risk needed to promote risk reduction:promote risk reduction:

Need for institutional and regulatory Need for institutional and regulatory changeschanges

Use of market to value (“price”) riskUse of market to value (“price”) risk Need for social policies for Need for social policies for

compensation and promotion compensation and promotion (provide gender, age, ethnic sensitive (provide gender, age, ethnic sensitive instruments) instruments)

See risk reduction as a business See risk reduction as a business opportunityopportunity

Imperfect or inactive markets require Imperfect or inactive markets require government action / interventiongovernment action / intervention


Phases in macroeconomic Phases in macroeconomic assessmentassessment

The most difficult task is to verify the The most difficult task is to verify the consistency of different estimations consistency of different estimations by comparing the evolution of by comparing the evolution of macroeconomic variables with that macroeconomic variables with that obtained by putting together sectoral, obtained by putting together sectoral, regional or partial informationregional or partial information


Measurement and valuation:Measurement and valuation:UnemploymentUnemployment

Destruction of productive capacity Destruction of productive capacity and growing demand due to the and growing demand due to the disaster and during the disaster and during the reconstruction stagereconstruction stage Intensive labor demand sectorsIntensive labor demand sectors Gender considerationsGender considerations Changes in productive Changes in productive specializationspecialization

patternspatterns


Summary TableSummary Table


2004 2005 2006

2007 SIN

NIÑO

2007 CON NIÑO

Tasa de crecimiento del Pib 3.9 4.1 4.6 5 4.1Variación de precios al consumidor 4.6 4.9 4.95 4 5.5Exportaciones (millones de dólares) 2146 2671 4211 4350 4300

Saldo del sector público no financiero(% del PIB) -5.5 -2.3 4.5 -3.4 -5.6

Fuente: CEPAL sobre cifras oficiales

IMPACTO EN EL COMPORTAMIENTO DE LA ECONOMIA DE BOLIVIA POR EL NIÑO 2006-2007

IMPACTO EN EL CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2004 2005 2006 2007

tasa

de

crec

imie

nto

Tasa de crecimiento del PIB sin Niño

Tasa de crecimiento del PIB con Niño


Impact on prices: change in Impact on prices: change in inflationinflation(current month in respect of same month previous year)(current month in respect of same month previous year)

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jan-01

Apr-01

Jul-01

Nov-01

Feb-02

May-02

Sep-02

Dec-02

Mar-03

Jun-03

Oct-03

Jan-04

Apr-04

Aug-04

Nov-04

Feb-05

May-05

Sep-05

Dec-05

Mar-06

Jul-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

Apr-07

Alimentos General


Possible scenariosPossible scenarios

Take into consideration the reconstruction Take into consideration the reconstruction costs, emergent reconstruction priorities costs, emergent reconstruction priorities and reconstruction strategiesand reconstruction strategies

Always consider the suppositions regarding Always consider the suppositions regarding the economy’s absorption capacity and its the economy’s absorption capacity and its institutional developmentinstitutional development

Based on historical performance of Based on historical performance of variables and the reaction of those variables variables and the reaction of those variables to changes in the level of available to changes in the level of available resourcesresources


RISK FINANCINGRISK FINANCING IN THE FACE OF DISASTERS IN THE FACE OF DISASTERS

Return period / probabilityReturn period / probability Risk typeRisk type

Resource Resource gapgap

Reserve fundsReserve funds

2-3 years2-3 years

20-30 years20-30 years

50-200 years50-200 years

Multi-hazards, Multi-hazards, recurrent risksrecurrent risks

Catastrophic risksCatastrophic risks

Parametric Parametric coveragecoverage

Contingency Contingency mechanismsmechanisms

Budgetary Budgetary capacitycapacity

CAT BondsCAT Bonds


Existing post disaster funding Existing post disaster funding mechanismsmechanisms

Budgerary support, managed by donor and recipient agency / Budgerary support, managed by donor and recipient agency / governmentgovernment

Flex: Cotonou (Ex Lomé), managed by the EU, in addition to regular Flex: Cotonou (Ex Lomé), managed by the EU, in addition to regular DIPECHO fundingDIPECHO funding

Specific “disaster” taxes, manged by impacted governmentSpecific “disaster” taxes, manged by impacted government Other multi and bilateral resources mobilized (by donor Other multi and bilateral resources mobilized (by donor

conferences, IFIs workging group´s), managed under special post-conferences, IFIs workging group´s), managed under special post-disaster agreementsdisaster agreements

Post humanitarian, “early recovery” fundsPost humanitarian, “early recovery” funds

Fuente: Asociación de Estados del Caribe, Dirección de Transporte y Desastres Naturales Fuente: Asociación de Estados del Caribe, Dirección de Transporte y Desastres Naturales


LEVEL OF DISASTER IMPACTLEVEL OF DISASTER IMPACT

Indicates Indicates coping and coping and adapative adapative capacitycapacity

110

1001000

10000100000

100000010000000

1000000001000000000

10000000000100000000000

100-500

50-100 25-500 10-25 5-10 1-5

Amount of macro impactProbabilityPotencial (Amount of macro impact)

Risk to be covered (finanical gap)Risk to be covered (finanical gap)

““Acceptable risk”Acceptable risk”

Excedence (residual or excedent risk)Excedence (residual or excedent risk)


Typical Productive SectorsTypical Productive Sectors

AgricultureAgriculture LivestockLivestock FisheriesFisheries IndustryIndustry CommerceCommerce MiningMining TourismTourism


Connotations of LossesConnotations of Losses Losses occur over the time required to repair, reconstruct Losses occur over the time required to repair, reconstruct

or replace assets damage: need to be realistic in its or replace assets damage: need to be realistic in its estimationestimation

Higher production costs may be incurred upon throughHigher production costs may be incurred upon through Temporary rental of premisesTemporary rental of premises Temporary rental/acquisition of machineryTemporary rental/acquisition of machinery Higher cost to acquire inputs from abroad in view of local Higher cost to acquire inputs from abroad in view of local

or domestic unavailabilityor domestic unavailability Higher cost of electricity (use of standby power plants)Higher cost of electricity (use of standby power plants)

Lower production may result inLower production may result in Need to import foodstuffsNeed to import foodstuffs Decline in traditional exports, andDecline in traditional exports, and Negative impact on balance of paymentsNegative impact on balance of payments


Application to Specific Application to Specific SectorsSectors

The previous considerations must be The previous considerations must be taken into account within the specific taken into account within the specific characteristics of each productive characteristics of each productive sector, and applied to ascertain the sector, and applied to ascertain the overall impact of the disasteroverall impact of the disaster


Damage and Loss Damage and Loss AssessmentAssessment

Industry SectorIndustry Sector

J. Roberto JovelJ. Roberto Jovel


ContentsContents

1.1. Typical effects of disasters on the Typical effects of disasters on the industry sectorindustry sector

2.2. Procedures to estimate damage and Procedures to estimate damage and losses in industrylosses in industry

3.3. Typical sources of informationTypical sources of information

4.4. Summary example of assessmentSummary example of assessment


The Industry Sector and The Industry Sector and DisastersDisasters

In cases of disasters the Industry Sector sustains In cases of disasters the Industry Sector sustains damagedamage to its assets to its assets Buildings and furnitureBuildings and furniture Machinery and equipmentMachinery and equipment Stocks of inputs and manufactured goodsStocks of inputs and manufactured goods

In addition, it sustains In addition, it sustains losseslosses in its economic flows due in its economic flows due toto Stoppage or decline in productionStoppage or decline in production Shortage or higher cost of raw materials and Shortage or higher cost of raw materials and

inputsinputs Decreased demand for its productsDecreased demand for its products


Typical Losses in Industry Typical Losses in Industry SectorSector

Loss of production Loss of production due to:due to: Damage to premises and machinery Damage to premises and machinery

required for industrial processingrequired for industrial processing Lack or shortage of raw materials and Lack or shortage of raw materials and

inputs essential for processinginputs essential for processing Decline in demand due to decreased Decline in demand due to decreased

overall economic activityoverall economic activity Increased production costsIncreased production costs due to: due to:

Acquisition of raw materials from Acquisition of raw materials from alternative sourcesalternative sources

Higher transport costsHigher transport costs Higher energy and electricity costsHigher energy and electricity costs


Effects of Disasters on Effects of Disasters on Industry SectorIndustry Sector The overall effects of disasters to the The overall effects of disasters to the

Industries sector have often been Industries sector have often been underestimated and not well understood, underestimated and not well understood, because of the following reasonsbecause of the following reasons It is difficult to assess damage to numerous It is difficult to assess damage to numerous

individual industrial plants, many of which are individual industrial plants, many of which are small and medium sizedsmall and medium sized

The assessment of losses was not a standard The assessment of losses was not a standard procedure in the pastprocedure in the past


Step-Wise Procedure for Step-Wise Procedure for Assessment in Industrial Assessment in Industrial SectorSector Analysis breakdown: Analysis breakdown:

Large, medium, small and micro enterprisesLarge, medium, small and micro enterprises AgroindustriesAgroindustries

Obtain pre-disaster (baseline) informationObtain pre-disaster (baseline) information Static baseline on physical assets: type, capacity Static baseline on physical assets: type, capacity

and number of machinery, etcand number of machinery, etc Dynamic baseline on industrial production: normal Dynamic baseline on industrial production: normal

annual and monthly productionannual and monthly production Field survey of disaster effectsField survey of disaster effects Develop post-disaster forecastDevelop post-disaster forecast

Calendar for repair or replacement of assetsCalendar for repair or replacement of assets Schedule for production recoverySchedule for production recovery

Estimate damage and losses (2 minus 4)Estimate damage and losses (2 minus 4) Estimate effect on balance of payments and tradeEstimate effect on balance of payments and trade


Field Survey and Field Survey and InterviewsInterviews

Field survey is essential for industry sector specialists Field survey is essential for industry sector specialists to obtain a feeling of disaster effects on assets and to obtain a feeling of disaster effects on assets and on production capacity, as well ason production capacity, as well as Develop a typology of affected industriesDevelop a typology of affected industries Learn of possible problems in replacing specialized or Learn of possible problems in replacing specialized or

large equipment and machinery (obsolete technologies, large equipment and machinery (obsolete technologies, delivery times, etc)delivery times, etc)

It should be complemented by visits to industrial It should be complemented by visits to industrial associations to enlist their assistance in obtaining associations to enlist their assistance in obtaining summarized information from their associates on:summarized information from their associates on: Pre-disaster industry performancePre-disaster industry performance Damage and losses sustained Damage and losses sustained Financial requirements for recovery/reconstructionFinancial requirements for recovery/reconstruction


Post-Disaster Sector Post-Disaster Sector PerformancePerformance

Develop conservative schedule of repair and Develop conservative schedule of repair and replacement of assets, with special reference to replacement of assets, with special reference to specialized machinery and equipmentspecialized machinery and equipment

Develop preliminary post-disaster performance for Develop preliminary post-disaster performance for the sector, taking into considerationthe sector, taking into consideration Calendar of staged recovery of production capacity Calendar of staged recovery of production capacity

(supply)(supply) Possible constraints in raw materials and inputs Possible constraints in raw materials and inputs

(supply)(supply) Calendar of recovery of demandCalendar of recovery of demand Additional demands from disaster reconstruction Additional demands from disaster reconstruction


Estimation of Losses in Industry Estimation of Losses in Industry SectorSector

ProductionProduction losses should be estimated on the basis of the time that losses should be estimated on the basis of the time that equipment and machinery will require for their repair or equipment and machinery will require for their repair or replacement.replacement.

The estimation of losses should take into account:The estimation of losses should take into account: The pre-disaster production goals for each industrial The pre-disaster production goals for each industrial

establishmentestablishment The possibility of constraints to production brought about The possibility of constraints to production brought about

by shortage or non-availability of raw materials and by shortage or non-availability of raw materials and essential inputs such as electricity or wateressential inputs such as electricity or water

A possible drop in demand of industrial products due to A possible drop in demand of industrial products due to overall decreased economic activity in the affected areaoverall decreased economic activity in the affected area

A possible increase in demand of certain industrial A possible increase in demand of certain industrial products required for reconstruction must be consideredproducts required for reconstruction must be considered


Estimation of Losses in Industry Estimation of Losses in Industry Sector ..Sector ..

Increased production costsIncreased production costs must also be must also be estimated, consideringestimated, considering Increased cost of raw material and inputsIncreased cost of raw material and inputs Payment of overtime salaries to employeesPayment of overtime salaries to employees Temporary need to rent equipment and Temporary need to rent equipment and

machinerymachinery Higher electricity costsHigher electricity costs


Effects on Balance of Effects on Balance of PaymentsPayments

Estimate value of imports arising from the disaster in Estimate value of imports arising from the disaster in the sectorthe sector

Acquisition of raw materials and other inputs Acquisition of raw materials and other inputs from abroad for industrial processfrom abroad for industrial process

Acquisition of construction materials and Acquisition of construction materials and equipment for repair and replacement of assetsequipment for repair and replacement of assets

Estimate value of traditional exports that will not be Estimate value of traditional exports that will not be made due to decline in production of the sectormade due to decline in production of the sector

Provide these estimates to macro-economistProvide these estimates to macro-economist


Effects on Fiscal Effects on Fiscal SectorSector

In the case of Government-owned In the case of Government-owned industriesindustries Estimate decline in revenuesEstimate decline in revenues Estimate increase in operational Estimate increase in operational

expendituresexpenditures

Provide these figures to macro-Provide these figures to macro-economisteconomist


Sources and InformationSources and Information

SourcesSources Ministry of IndustriesMinistry of Industries Ministry of PlanningMinistry of Planning Statistical OfficeStatistical Office Industry AssociationsIndustry Associations Chambers of Special Chambers of Special

IndustriesIndustries Central BanksCentral Banks

Information requiredInformation required Most recent industrial Most recent industrial

census or surveyscensus or surveys Time series of Time series of

industrial production industrial production and pricesand prices

Data on small and Data on small and medium enterprises medium enterprises (SMEs)(SMEs)

Gross domestic Gross domestic industrial product, by industrial product, by branches of activitybranches of activity


1999 Floods in Venezuela1999 Floods in VenezuelaIndustrial branch Disaster Effects, million Bolivars

Damage Losses Total

Pharmaceutical (57) 1,130 830 1,420

Medical equipment (2) 300 300 600

Pasta factories (4) 125 125 250

Ironworks (315) 2,700 1,880 4,580

Bakeries (40) 1,600 1,600 3,200

Clothing (337) 405 400 805

Footwear (17) 625 625 1,250

Mechanical shops (17) 595 600 1,195

Radio stations (27) 395 350 745

Others 725 690 1,415

TOTAL 8,600 7,400 16,000


2004 Tsunami in Indonesia2004 Tsunami in Indonesia

Disaster Effects, Rp billion

Damage Losses Total

Very large industries 540 41 581

Large industries 44 169 213

Small to medium industries 800 246 1,046

Agroindustry --- 3,549 3,549

TOTAL 1,384 4,005 5,389

ricardo zapataeclac / wb workshop1 regional training on the eclac disaster evaluation methodology...

Documents

eclac wb workshopcapabilities

eclac training manual

regional training

disaster reduction

eclac revised handbook

disaster evaluationasha

terms of damage appraisal

emergency actions