latin american ports and transport infrastructure challenges fernando sÁnchez-albavera director...
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Latin American Ports and Transport Infrastructure Challenges
FERNANDO SÁNCHEZ-ALBAVERA
DIRECTOR DIVISION OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND INFRASTRUCTURE
ECLAC, UNITED NATIONS
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
General ideas Maritime transport has followed the steps of the world economy, the new role
of trade and the new economic geography Maritime transport and logistic, jointly with the communications revolution, are
responsibles for globalization Trade is the driver of economic growth A positive and close relationship exists between infrastructure, transport and
logistic services improvements and the economic growth Changes in the transport industry during the last years have been dramatic and
stabilization will take time Changes in maritime transport depend more and more on the great changes in
the world economy It is necessary to be alert to changes in general macroeconomic conditions The ports in Latin America, as development keys, show a modernization
process with different level of progress and related problems
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
ECONOMIC REFORM INDEX IN LATIN AMERICAECONOMIC REFORM INDEX IN LATIN AMERICA
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Total Trade reform
Financial reform Capital account reform
Tax reform P rivatisation
TotalReforma financieraReforma tributaria
Reforma comercialReforma de la cuenta capitalesPrivatización
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
Economic growth in Latin America
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104Crecimiento del PIB Indice del PIB per cápita (1997=100)
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
International trade in global economic growth
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004f 2005f
Ave
rage
Ann
ual G
row
th (%
)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Mul
tiple
GDP (left) Trade (left) Trade-GDP Multiple (right)
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
Foreign investments in Latin America (USD Thousands)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
* Excluye los centros financieros
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
TRADE AGREEMENTSTRADE AGREEMENTS
0
50
100
150
200
194
8
195
1
195
4
195
7
196
0
196
3
196
6
196
9
197
2
197
5
197
8
198
1
198
4
198
7
199
0
199
3
199
6
199
9
200
2
Mundo
Países de ALCGATT
OMC
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
EXPORTS GROWTH2000 = 100
90
100
110
120
130
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Consumo privado
Consumo público
Exportaciones bienes y servicios
Inversión bruta interna
PIB
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
TRADE AGREEMENTS TRADE AGREEMENTS % of national exports % of national exports
Fuente: CEPAL, Naciones Unidas ACPI: Acuerdos Comerciales Preferenciales intrarregionalesACPE: Acuerdos Comerciales Preferenciales extrarregionalesACP: Acuerdos Comerciales Preferenciales
América Latina y el Caribe (18)
Venezuela
Uruguay
República Dominicana
Perú
Paraguay
Panamá
Nicaragua
México
Honduras
Guatemala
El Salvador
Ecuador
Costa Rica
Colombia
Chile
Brasil
Bolivia
Argentina
ACPI ACPE Sin ACP
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
EXCHANGE TRADE INDEXBASE 1995=100
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
Latin America Port Laws & Reforms
Port Laws:
1991: Colombia, Argentina
1992: Brazil, Uruguay
1993: Mexico
1997: Chile, Panama
1999: Paraguay
2000: Colombia
2001: Venezuela
2002: El Salvador
2003: Peru
Franchised or Private Ports:ArgentinaBoliviaBrazil ChileColombiaCubaMexicoPanamaParaguayUruguay
Underlined: Approved laws / partial or no reforms Underlined: No special laws / reforms done
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
Reform CharacteristicsReformed public ports were transferred to the landlord systemThere are major industrial, specialized, and highly-efficient private portsThere are (new) major highly-efficient private ports of public use when authorized by lawSizable share of foreign capital investments, with exceptionsSome performance and institutional differences can be observed between reformed portsIn many countries, there is no relation among port reforms, transport, and logistics.
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
Economic vs. port activityBase 1996=100, according to TEUS
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
ChilePanamáUruguayPerúArgentinaPIB Promedio
Panamá, 2003: 338
Según cantidad de TEUs
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
Economic vs. port activityBase 1996=100, according to MT tr.
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Brasil Chile
Panamá Uruguay
Perú PIB Promedio
Panamá, 2003: 450
Según cantidad de toneladas
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
Far East; 287,2
Latin America; 225,1
Caribbean/ Central Am.; 177,3
South America; 282,1
Eastern Europe; 355,5
World; 224,9
100,0
130,0
160,0
190,0
220,0
250,0
280,0
310,0
340,0
370,0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Tra
snfe
rred
TE
Us
North America North West Europe South West Europe Far East
South East Asia Mid East Latin America Caribbean/ Central Am.
South America South Asia Eastern Europe World
Port movement index, by regions. Base 2000=100
2001-2004 and forecast to 20092009 / 2004South America 83,7%Far East 68,4%Latin America 63,1%South Asia 58,7%South East Asia 52,3%Eastern Europe 52,2%World 49,0%Caribbean/ Central Am. 41,1%Mid East 37,3%South West Europe 34,3%Africa 30,9%North West Europe 29,8%North America 20,9%Oceania 20,5%
Source: author based on ECLAC and Drewry Shipping Consultant Ltd. info
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
Comparative efficiency. A growth path.
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
Productivity changes
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
Ship size in Latinamerican ports, 1984-2005
Fuente: Ricardo J. Sánchez, CEPAL, sobre la base de informaciones propias, y la gentileza de Doerr, O. y Victor H. Tarántola.
Panamá, No transit
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
Costa Oeste Costa Este
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
Port depths in Latin America
Sufficient for future needs: 8 Around 42 feet
Mid – situation: 7 Around 39 feet
Sufficient only for current needs:
29 Around 32 feet
Insufficient 7 Around 26 feet
Survey: Main container ports, 17 countries: 51 ports of Latin America, off Caribbean
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005 Source: R. J. Sánchez and G. Wilmsmeier, CEPAL, DRNI
Logistic and transport infrastructure bottlenecks in Latin America and the Caribbean
Se trata de una aproximación gráfica y no pretende describir con precisión todas y cada una de las insuficiencias específicas
Los límites y los nombres que figuran en este mapa no implican su apoyo o aceptación oficial por las Naciones Unidas
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
The perspectives for the next years (2006-2007) are positive, with an expected annual growth of 9-10%.
The negative perspectives are associated to oil prices that could continue to increase.
The Far East and China will continue as leaders of higher growth, although ISC will also lead. There are new opportunities for Latin America.
Transport frequency will increase from the Far East to United States through the Panama Canal, resulting in more possibilities of transshipping in Latin America.
The expansion of the Terminals in Panama, Mexico and the Caribbean (Colombia?), within the framework of known merges, will change the patterns of maritime trade in Latin America. The least developed ports must prepare themselves, but more developed must be alert too!
Cargo shippers will have to adopt other negotiation strategies to encounter the above mentioned changes. The relevance of the learning curve.
Pressures on ports will increase both in investment requirements as well as in price discrimination practices.
Some outlooks:
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
Growth in trade and port traffic remain strong Bigger ships and higher frequency are expected The consolidation process in ports and transport will continue Port development capacity must go ahead of demand
Work ideas
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
More speed is required in the containers operation, otherwise new bigger ships have no sense.
The main ports of the world are technically prepared for the change …. and Latin America?
The strategic planning process is crucial. All the traffic to all ports? The port congestion is an increasing problem …
what happens to logistic congestion? There are regulatory problems associated to the
maturation and development of port reforms.
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
Conclusions: In a context with apparently favorable economic and business conditions in the region, with fewer uncertainties as to the demand for the products exported by the region, the port development and related services, especially the logistic, come across both barriers and favorable aspects:
Opportunities: Good trade and macro
prospects in the region Good port development, at
“terminal” level, yet with differences among countries
Higher demand for services due to a sustained increase in both international and intraregional trade
Higher demand for services due to the operating changes in the maritime transport service
Barriers: Current ports vs. future fleet Logistic services not mature The limitations and
insufficiencies of the transport system may restrict trade
Funding problems Instability in local policies for
the provisioning of port services, as well as in investment conditions
Lack of appropriate distribution ports, especially in the Pacific coast
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
Final thoughts Ports are more important than we thought, and they will
be even more! Can we keep on thinking separately ports from logistic? Do we have time to loose? Which is the temporary difference between trade
evolution and achievements in infrastructure transport, logistics and ports?
Can we risk the “driver” of growth and competitiveness?
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
Aportes de la CEPAL/DRNI al desarrollo marítimo, portuario y logístico en América Latina y el Caribe Misiones de asistencia técnica a los países y organismos
regionales de integración, al sector público y privado Organización y participación en conferencias, seminarios y
reuniones de expertos BIENIO 2004/2005: 42 misiones Colaboraciones con organismos especializados: IIRSA,
CIP/OEA, AAPA (American Association of Port Authorities), OMI, PIANC (International Navigation Association), IAME (International Association of Maritime Economists), etc.
Estudios y publicaciones
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
Estudios: Series DRNI (1) Medidas de productividad para la industria portuaria. Aplicación en América Latina
y el Caribe Octavio Doerr Núñez y Ricardo J. Sánchez, dic. del 2005. Hacia un desarrollo sustentable e integrado de la Amazonía, Pedro Bara Nieto,
Ricardo J. Sánchez, Gordon Wilmsmeier, noviembre del 2005. Infraestructura y servicios de transporte ferroviario vinculados a las vías de
navegación fluvial en América del Sur, Gordon Wilmsmeier, nov. del 2005 Ciudades puerto en la economía globalizada: alcances teóricos de la arquitectura
organizacional de los flujos portuarios, José Granda, noviembre del 2005. Bridging infrastructural gaps in Central America: prospects and potential for
maritime transport, Ricardo J. Sánchez and Gordon Wilmsmeier, September, 2005. Provisión de infraestructura de transporte en América Latina: experiencia reciente y
problemas observados, Ricardo J. Sánchez y Gordon Wilmsmeier, agosto del 2005. El desarrollo productivo basado en la explotación de los recursos naturales,
Fernando Sánchez Albavera, diciembre del 2004. Puertos y transporte marítimo en América Latina y el Caribe: un análisis de su
desempeño reciente, Ricardo J. Sánchez, noviembre del 2004.
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
Protección marítima y portuaria en América del Sur, Ricardo J. Sánchez, Rodrigo García, Martín Sgut y otros, noviembre del 2004
Concesiones viales en América Latina: situación actual y perspectivas, Alberto Bull, septiembre del 2004.
Desarrollo de infraestrucutura y crecimiento económico: revisión conceptual, Patricio Rozas y Ricardo Sánchez, agosto del 2004.
Comercio entre los países de América del Sur y los países de la Comunidad del Caribe (CARICOM): el papel que desempeñan los servicios de transporte, Ricardo Sánchez y Myriam Echeverría, noviembre del 2003.
El pago por el uso de la infraestructura de transporte vial, ferroviario y portuario, concesionada al sector privado, Ricardo Sánchez, noviembre del 2003.
Acceso a la información: una tarea pendiente para la regulación latinoamericana, Andrei Jouravlev, agosto del 2003.
Identificación de obstáculos al transporte terrestre internacional de cargas en el Mercosur, Ricardo J. Sánchez y Georgina Cipoletta Tomasian, mayo del 2003.
Estudios: Series DRNI (2)
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
Estudios: Series DRNI (3). En proceso
Las regulaciones de seguridad en puertos y buques, un año después del Código PBIP de la OMI. Costos y desempeño actual.
El impacto de las regulaciones bilaterales de seguridad portuaria en las negociaciones de los Tratados de Libre Comercio.
Productividad en la industria portuaria. Segunda parte.
Puertos y transporte marítimo en América Latina y el Caribe, versión 2005.
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
Boletines FAL
Nº 228 Agosto/2005 El ciclo marítimo y las tendencias de la industria en América Latina Nº 227 Julio/2005
Las medidas de protección portuaria: Un año después del código de protección de buques e instalaciones portuarias (PBIP) Nº 227 Julio/2005
Port Security Measures: One Year after the Entry into Force of the International Ship and Port Facility Security Code (ISPS Code)
Nº 224 Abril/2005 Costos de transporte como barreras al comercio internacional de bienes agrícolas No.223 March/2005 Tourist Cruise Ships and the Trade in Services: Recent Trends in Countries of the Caribbean Basin Nº 223 Marzo/2005
Los cruceros turísticos y el comercio de servicios: tendencias recientes en los países de la Cuenca del Caribe No.221 January/2005 Recent increases in shipping costs and their impact on exports from Latin America Nº 221 Enero/2005
Los recientes aumentos en el costo del transporte marítimo y sus efectos sobre las exportaciones de América Latina No.216 August/2004 Maritime and port security in South America: implementation costs Nº 216 Agosto/2004 Protección marítima y portuaria en Sudamérica: los costos de implementación No.215 July/2004 Maritime and port security in South America: the situation in mid-2004 Nº 215 Julio/2004 Protección marítima y portuaria en Sudamérica: la situación a mediados del 2004 No. 213 May/2004 Ocean freight, shipbuilding costs and charter rates: recent trends Nº 213 Mayo/2004 Fletes marítimos, precios de construcción y arriendo de buques: sus cambios recientes No. 207 November/2003 Infrastructure, transport and production development in an agricultural region: a case in Argentina. Nº 207 Noviembre/2003 Infraestructura, transporte y desarrollo productivo de una región agrícola: un caso de Argentina
Houston, TX. Dec 7, 2005
Thank you very much…
Fernando Sánchez-AlbaveraDirector
Division of Natural Resources and Infrastructure
ECLAC/UN
+56 2 210 [email protected]