appendix economic indicators developed economies …€¦ · 14 dec13 jun14 dec14 dec15 jun16...

21QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGYFirst Quarter 2017

UOB Asset Management

40

44

42

52

50

48

46

54

56

Nov13

Nov14

May14

Nov15

May15

Nov16

May16

42

46

50

54

58

Nov13

Nov14

May14

Nov15

May15

Nov16

May16

-10

-5

0

5

10

Dec12

Jun13

Dec13

Jun14

Dec15

Jun16

Dec14

Jun15

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Dec12

Jun13

Dec13

Jun14

Dec15

Jun16

Dec14

Jun15

-8

-4

0

4

8

Dec13

Jun14

Dec14

Jun15

Dec15

Jun16

-22

-16

2

-4

-10

8

14

Dec13

Jun14

Dec14

Jun15

Dec15

Jun16

eConomIC InDICAtoRSAPPenDIX

DEVElOPED ECONOMIES EMERGING ECONOMIES

Purchasing managers’ index Purchasing managers’ index

industrial Production Growth (yoy%) industrial Production Growth (yoy%)

real GdP growth (qoq%, saar)* real GdP growth (qoq%, saar)*

* For some economies, annualised GDP data are estimates by UOBAM. For India, data are in year-on-year percentages (YoY%). + China Caixin PMI was previously known as HSBC PMI (effective July 2015).Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 1 December 2016.

US Eurozone Japan

US Eurozone Japan

US Eurozone Japan

ChinaBrazil Russia India China Caixin+

ChinaBrazil Russia India

ChinaBrazil Russia India

22 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGYFirst Quarter 2017

Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer.

Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 1 December 2016.

-1

1

3

Dec13

Jun14

Dec15

Jun16

Dec14

Jun15

0

16

12

8

4

20

Dec13

Jun14

Dec15

Jun16

Dec14

Jun15

DEVElOPED ECONOMIES EMERGING ECONOMIES

Country Interest RateCurrent Rate

(%pa)Latest

meetingChange at

Latest mtg (bp)Last Change next meeting

1-Dec-16

united States Fed Funds Target Rate US 0.500 2 Nov 2016 - 16 Dec 15 (+25bp) 15 Dec 2016

eurozone Refinance Rate 0.000 21 Nov 2016 - 10 Mar 16 (-5bp) 8 Dec 2016

Japan BOJ Overnight Call Rate -0.054 - - 30 Nov 16 (-0.2bp) -

united Kingdom Uk Official Bank Rate 0.250 30 Nov 2016 - 4 Aug 16 (-25bp) 15 Dec 2016

Brazil Brazil Selic Target Rate 13.750 30 Nov 2016 (25) 30 Nov 16 (-25bp) 11 Jan 2017

Russia Bank of Russia key Rate 10.000 30 Nov 2016 - 19 Sep 16 (-50bp) -

India Repurchase Rate 6.250 25 Nov 2016 - 5 Oct 16 (-25bp) -

China China Reverse Repurchase Notes 7D Rate 2.250 22 Nov 2016 - 27 Oct 15 (-10bp) -

South Africa South Africa Repo Avg Rate 7.000 30 Nov 2016 - 17 Mar 16 (+25bp) 24 Jan 2017

Inflation - CPI (YoY%) Inflation - CPI (YoY%)

Central Banks Interest Rates

Source: Bloomberg, updated as of 1 December 2016

US Eurozone Japan ChinaBrazil Russia India



equity indices(rebased 100 on 31 december 2014)

Dec14

Mar15

Jun15

Sep16

Jun16

Mar16

Dec15

Sep15

70758085

9590

100105110115120

75

65

55

85

95

105

115

Dec14

Mar15

Jun15

Sep16

Jun16

Mar16

Dec15

Sep15

Dec14

Mar15

Jun15

Sep16

Jun16

Mar16

Dec15

Sep15

88

93

98

103

108

113

Dec14

Mar15

Jun15

Sep16

Jun16

Mar16

Dec15

Sep15

95

100

105

115

110

120

125

Dec14

Mar15

Jun15

Sep16

Jun16

Mar16

Dec15

Sep15

40

100

90

80

70

60

50

110

120

Dec14

Mar15

Jun15

Sep16

Jun16

Mar16

Dec15

Sep15

100

110

105

mARKet PeRFoRmAnCeDEVElOPED MARkETS EMERGING MARkETS

equity indices(rebased 100 on 31 december 2014)

Fixed Income Indices(Rebased 100 on 31 December 2014)

Fixed Income Indices(Rebased 100 on 31 December 2014)

Commodity Indices(Rebased 100 on 31 December 2014)

Dollar Index Spot(Rebased 100 on 31 December 2014)

USA 9.7%

AC World 3.1%

EM -5.6%

Japan 11.1%

Europe -8.1%

SG Govt -3.3%

Asia 9.0%

Sovereigns -1.4%

G7 GBI 0.2%

High Yield 9.2%

Inv Grade -1.0%

Energy -36.3%

Gold -1.3%

GSCI light Index -22.2%Agriculture -19.3%

Industrial Metals -6.2%

Emerging Mkts 10.1%Corporate 10.0%Sovereigns 8.2%

High Yield 21.5%

Inv Grade 3.7%

Asia ex Japan -2.2%EM -5.6%

EM Europe -2.1%

EM latin Am -10.4% Inde

xIn

dex

Inde

x

Inde

xIn

dex

Inde

x




earnings revision by sectors for Fy2

-4 -2 0 2 4

China

EMEA

India

Latin America

Emerging Markets

AC Asia Ex Japan

Russia

Brazil

-1 0 1 2 3

US

Australia

World

Europe

Canada

Japan

-2 -1 0 81 52 4 763

Energy

Materials

Cons Staples

IT

Telecom

Health Care

UtilitiesMSCI World

Industrials

Financials

Cons Discr

Real Estate

-5 -4 -3-6 3 4-2 2-1 10

IT

Energy

Materials

MSCIEmerging Markets

Financials

Cons StaplesUtilities

Cons DiscrHealth CareIndustrials

Telecom

EMERGING MARkETS

earnings revision by regions for Fy2 earnings revision by regions for Fy2

earnings revision by sectors for Fy2

% Change% Change

% Change % Change

Revisions in previous 2 mthsRevisions last mth





eQuIty mARKet InDICAtoRSDEVElOPED MARkETS



*Mean and SD are based on data from 1999.

^Energy sector is not shown in the chart.

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Oct

-00

Oct

-01

Oct

-02

Oct

-03

Oct

-04

Oct

-05

Oct

-06

Oct

-07

Oct

-08

Oct

-09

Oct

-10

Oct

-11

Oct

-12

Oct

-13

Oct

-14

Oct

-15

Oct

-16

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Oct

-00

Oct

-01

Oct

-02

Oct

-03

Oct

-04

Oct

-05

Oct

-06

Oct

-07

Oct

-08

Oct

-09

Oct

-10

Oct

-11

Oct

-12

Oct

-13

Oct

-14

Oct

-15

Oct

-16

1.0x

1.5x

2.0x

2.5x

3.0x

8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16%

P/B

V FY

1 (X

)

ROE - 2yr Forward Avg. (%)

AC WorldWorld

US

Europe

Japan

AustraliaCanada

Asia Ex Japan

Latin America

EMEA

P/B

V - F

Y1 (X

)

ROE - 2yr Forward Avg. (%)

0.9x

1.3x

1.7x

2.1x

2.5x

2.9x

3.3x

3.7x

4.1x

5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 21%

Consumer Discr

Consumer Staples

Energy

Financials

Healthcare

Industrials

IT

Materials

Telecom SvcsUtilities

Real Estate

AC World

developed markets earnings yield ratio* emerging markets earnings yield ratio*

P/Bv vs roe by region P/e vs Growth by region

P/Bv vs roe by sector^ P/e vs Growth by sector^

Nov-16, 2.7x

Mean +1SD, 3.5x Mean +1SD, 2.3x

Mean, 2.3x

Mean -1SD, 1.2x

VAlUATION

8x

10x

12x

14x

16x

18x

7%

PER

FY2

(X)

EPS CAGR FY1-3 (%)

AC World

World

US

EuropeJapan

Australia

Canada

Asia Ex Japan

Latin America

EMEA

6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

PER

(FY2

)

EPS CAGR FY1- 3 (%)

Consumer Staples

HealthcareUtilities

Telecom Svcs

MaterialsIndustrials IT

AC World

Financials

Real Estate

10.0x

12.0x

14.0x

16.0x

18.0x

20.0x

22.0x

2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Consumer Discr

Nov-16, 2xMean, 1.8x

Mean -1SD, 1.3x

^Energy sector is not shown in the chart.




Dec11

Jun12

Dec12

Jun13

Dec14

Dec13

Jun14

Dec15

Jun15

Jun16

Dec16

-0.5

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

Dec11

Jun12

Dec12

Jun13

Dec14

Dec13

Jun14

Dec15

Dec16

Jun15

Jun16

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1 6 11 16 21 26 31-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

3.0

3.5

2.5

Dec11

Jun12

Dec12

Jun13

Dec14

Dec13

Jun14

Dec15

Jun15

Dec16

Jun16

0

1

2

3

-1

0

1

2

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Switzerl

and

Australi

a

France

Eurozone

German

yJa

panUS-5

0

5

10

0

5

10

15

Thailan

d

Indonesia

South Africa

Malays

iaChina

Taiwan

Mexico

Brazil

India

Russia

South Korea

Philippines

FIXeD InCome mARKet InDICAtoRS

developed markets 10-year Government yield (%) emerging markets 10-year Government yield (%)

developed markets real Government yield (%) emerging markets real Government yield (%)

nominal yield curve (%) yield curve steepness (10y – 2y) (%)

US UK SGEU

10-Year Govt Bond Yield Real Govt Bond Yield - RHSCPI

ChinaBrazil Russia IndiaUS Euro Japan UK

1 W agoSG UK 1 W ago JP 1 W ago US 1 W ago

10-Year Govt Bond Yield CPI Real Govt Bond Yield - RHS

SOVEREIGN

Yie

ld (%

)

Tenor (Years)




Dec11

Jun12

Dec12

Jun13

Dec14

Dec13

Jun14

Dec15

Dec16

Jun15

Jun16

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

Dec11

Jun12

Dec12

Jun13

Dec14

Dec13

Jun14

Dec15

Jun15

Jun16

Dec16

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.56.0

Dec11

Jun12

Dec12

Jun13

Dec14

Dec13

Jun14

Dec15

Jun15

Jun16

Dec16

200

250

300

350

400

450

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Dec11

Jun12

Dec12

Jun13

Dec14

Dec13

Jun14

Dec15

Dec16

Jun15

Jun16

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Dec11

Jun12

Dec12

Jun13

Dec14

Dec13

Jun14

Dec15

Jun15

Jun16

Dec16

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

Dec11

Jun12

Dec12

Jun13

Dec14

Dec13

Jun14

Dec15

Jun15

Jun16

Dec16

400

500

600

700

800

900

4.05.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

FIXeD InCome mARKet InDICAtoRS

us markets (usd) yield and credit spread us markets (usd) Hy yield and credit spread

Pan-european markets (usd) yield and credit spreadPan-european markets (eur) Hy corporate yield and credit spread

Asia markets (usd) yield and credit spread Asia markets (usd) Hy yield and credit spread

JACI Yield (%)

Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European Agg Corporate Yield (%) Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European HY Yield (%)

Bloomberg Barclays Asia HY Yield (%)

Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Corporate Yield (%) Bloomberg Barclays US HY Yield (%)

Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European Agg Corporate Spread (bps) - RHS

Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European Spread (bps) - RHS

Bloomberg Barclays Asia Spread (bps) - RHS

Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Corporate Spread (bps) - RHS Bloomberg Barclays US HY Spread (bps) - RHS

JACI Spread (bps) - RHS

CREDITS




Dec11

Jun12

Dec12

Jun13

Dec14

Dec13

Jun14

Dec15

Dec16

Jun15

Jun16

5

6

7

8

Dec11

Jun12

Dec12

Jun13

Dec14

Dec13

Jun14

Dec15

Jun15

Jun16

Dec16

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Dec14

Mar15

Dec15

Jun15

Sep15

Mar16

Sep16

Jun16

100

105

110

Chinese Renminbi

Indian Rupee

Hong Kong Dollar

Philippines Peso

Taiwanese Dollar

Thai Baht

Singapore Dollar

Indonesian Rupiah

Malaysian Ringgit

South Korean Won

Japanese Yen

-6.1-5.9

-3.6-3.4

-1.1- 0.2

-0.10.9

1.93.1

5.3

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

Mexican Peso

Turkish Lira

Polish Zloty

Hungarian Forint

South African Rand

Colombian Peso

Russian Ruble

Brazilian Real

-16.0

-15.1

-6.4

-1.5

3.3

10.0

13.7

16.8

-20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 20

British PoundSwedish Krona

Swiss Franc

EuroDanish Krone

Australian DollarCanadian Dollar

Norwegian DollarNew Zealand Dollar

Japanese Yen

- 15.2

- 8.4-2.5-2.2

-1.81.4

3.13.63.9

5.3

-20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8

emerging markets (usd) yield and credit spread emerging markets (local currency) Bond yield

dollar index spot (rebased 100 on 31 december 2014) G-10 Fx against us dollar

emerging markets Fx against us dollar Asia Fx against us dollar


JPMorgan EMBI Yield (%) JPMorgan GBI-EM Bond Yield (%)

CURRENCIES

Ind

ex

% change versus USD from 31 Dec 15 to 30 Nov 2016

% change versus USD from 31 Dec 15 to 30 Nov 2016 % change versus USD from 31 Dec 15 to 30 Nov 2016

CREDITS

JPMorgan EMBI Spread (bps) - RHS



Dec12

Jun13

Dec13

Jun14

Dec14

Jun15

Dec15

Jun16

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

6

8

10

Dec12

Jun13

Dec14

Dec13

Jun14

Dec15

Jun15

Jun16

10

15

20

25

30

35

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Dec12

Jun13

Dec14

Dec13

Jun14

Dec15

Jun15

Jun16

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2

3

4

5

6

Dec12

Jun13

Dec14

Dec13

Jun14

Dec15

Jun15

Jun16

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

250

450

650

Dec12

Jun13

Dec14

Dec13

Jun14

Dec15

Jun15

Jun16

4,200

4,700

5,200

5,700

6,200

6,700

7,200

7,700

8,200

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Dec12

Jun13

Dec14

Dec13

Jun14

Dec15

Jun15

Jun16

30

60

90

120

150

60

80

100

120

CommoDIty mARKet InDICAtoRS

Brent crude oil Price and Production Agriculture Price (usd)

Precious metal Price (usd) copper Price (usd)


Bloomberg OPEC Crude Oil Production Output/Saudi ArabiaDOE EIA US Crude Oil ProductionBrent Crude Oil (USD)/bbl - RHS

Corn Wheat Soyabeans - RHS

Gold Silver - RHS LME Copper Inventories LME Copper Spot - RHS

LME Aluminium Inventories LME Aluminium Spot - RHS

China Iron Ore Ports InventoryAustralia CIF Prices - RHS

Aluminum Price (usd) iron ore Price (usd)

Tonn

es (m

illio

ns)

Tonn

es (t

hous

and

s)

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

/Day

Tonn

es (m

illio

ns)

US

D p

er to

nne

US

D p

er to

nne

US

D p

er to

nne

appendix economic indicators developed economies …€¦ · 14 dec13 jun14 dec14 dec15 jun16...

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