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Penguin).

Appendix B A Multivariate Profile of Voting Behaviour, 1959-1970

The four tables that follow show the relationship between major social characteristics and party loyalties at four successive British general elections from 1959, as analyzed by A.I.D. (Automatic Interaction Detector). This statistical technique is also known as 'tree analysis', because the influences are presented in a series of branches, like a tree (Sonquist and Morgan, 1964).

Each figure was derived by relating the same basic social character­istics concerning occupational class, trade union membership in the family, housing, age, education, sex, region, religion, and consumer standards to the party choice of Conservative and Labour voters. In the first branch, the whole sample is divided into two groups maximizing the difference in the mean proportion supporting Labour in each group. Each of the two groups is then divided into sub-groups, according to the characteristic that best discriminates partisanship within it. The procedure continues until there is no significant amount of variation to be explained by further sub-divisions. The use of the same social characteristics in each analysis tests the relative importance throughout the period of different social attributes. In 1959 and 1964 the single most important influence differentiating voters was occupation; in 1966 and 19 7 0 it was housing.

The 1959 and 1964 trees were produced by combining Gallup Poll surveys from the weeks of the 1964 general election campaign; the 1959 vote was a recall measure. The 1966 and 1970 trees were produced from 1970 campaign surveys; the 1966 vote was a recall measure (see Rose, 1968; Rose, 1974a for further details). The abbreviations employed are as follows:

N = Number of cases in the category M = Percentage of the group voting Labour V = The proportion of variation in party preference explained by

the social characteristic involved in each branch.

493

~

\.0

~

I M =

% L

abou

r I TR

EE

AN

AL

YS

IS O

F B

RIT

ISH

VO

TIN

G,

1959

>1>-

1.0

(.;TI

I M =

% L

abou

r I

TR

EE

AN

AL

YS

IS O

F B

RIT

ISH

VO

TIN

G,

19

64

,..,..

(,0

0'

>

I M

idd

le c

lass

N

= 6

28

M =

52-

4%

EN

D

I M =

% L

abou

r I

I T

enan

t N

= 3

05

2

M =

70·

5%

v =

1·7

%

l I C

onse

rvat

ive,

Li

bera

l an

d m

argi

nal

Labo

ur s

eats

N

= 1

436

M =

69·

4%

EN

D

N

= 6

31

2

To

tal

varia

nce

I M

= 5

4·9%

e

xpla

ine

d=

18·

1%

v =

9·2

%

I H

om

eo

wn

er

N =

32

60

M

= 4

0·3%

v-

3·4%

I I

No

n-u

nio

n

Tra

de u

nio

n

N =

210

2 N

= 1

158

M =

30·

7%

M

= 57

·6%

V=

1·4

%

v =

0·6

%

I J

I I

I I

Wo

rkin

g c

lass

T

elep

hone

N

o te

leph

one

Con

serv

ativ

e,

Saf

e La

bour

, N

= 2

42

4

N =

10

89

N

= 1

01

3

mar

gina

l Li

bera

l M

= 7

5·2%

M

=

20·

8%

M =

41

·5%

La

bour

sea

ts

seat

s N

=6

70

N

= 4

88

v =

0·8

%

EN

D

v =

0·5

%

M =

49·

7%

M

= 68

·4%

I v

= 0

·5%

E

ND

I I

I I

Saf

e an

d ve

ry

mar

gina

l E

duca

tion

to

Edu

catio

n to

La

bour

sea

ts

Edu

catio

n 1

6+

15

or

unde

r E

duca

tion

16+

15 o

r un

der

N =

31

0

N =

20

4

N =

98

8

N =

703

N

= 4

66

M =

83·

6%

M

= 27

·7%

M

=

32·8

%

M

= 47

·5%

M

= 5

7·1%

EN

D

L_

_ _E

NQ

--

EN

D

-E

ND

E

ND

TR

EE

AN

AL

YS

IS O

F B

RIT

ISH

VO

TIN

G,

19

66

..,. 1.0

-...J

I M =

% L

abou

r I

TR

EE

AN

AL

YS

IS O

F B

RIT

ISH

VO

TIN

G,

19

70

Index

Abbott, Stephen, 400 Abrams, Mark, 189 Agents, party, 152, 169ff Aims of Industry, 78, 80f, 87, 223ff Albania, 92 Armstrong, Sir William, 473, 475 Associated Industrial Consultants

Ltd, 145 Attlee, Clement, 23, 327f, 332f, 336,

343ff, 350f, 366, 414 Australia, 404 Austria, 6 Automatic Interaction Detector

(A.I.D.), 47, 493ff

Bagehot, Walter, 109 Baldwin, Stanley, 345,351 Balfour,A.J., 55, 164,306,345 Balogh, Lord, 399 Barber, Anthony, 400 Belgium, 48, 56, 408 Benn, Anthony Wedgwood, 83, 193,

454 Bevan, Aneurin, 23, 323, 326f, 338,

345f, 348, 363, 388ff Bevin, Ernest, 52, 143,268, 327,

343,346,350 Bochel,John, 214 Booz·Allen, 395 Boundaries, constituency, 70, 148f Bow Group, 251, 325 Bridges, Sir Edward, 457 Brighton, Kemptown, 213 British Market Research Bureau, 189 British United Industrialists, 223f Brittan, Samuel, 113, 449, 471 Brook, Sir Norman, 457 Brzezinski, Z. B. and Huntington,

S.P.,434 Burton, lvor and Drewry, Gavin, 317 Butler, David, 38, 69, 200 Butler, David and Pinto·Duschinsky,

Michael, 244 Butler, David and Stokes, Donald, 71

498

Butler, R. A., 55, 391 Butt, Ronald, 413

Campaign for Democratic Socialsim, 328

Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, 328

Campaigning, 60ff, 65ff, 75ff, 154 Canada,6,50,56,404 Candidates, parliamentary, 6lff,

15lff, 255ff Canvassing, 62f Carr, Robert, 405 Carrington, Lord, 178, 221ff Carron, William, 268, 304, 343 Castle, Barbara, 415 Cecil, Lord Hugh, 29 7 Centre Party, 112 Chamberlain, Austen, 346 Chamberlain, Neville, 345, 350f Chelmer, Lord, 222, 251, 265 Christian Democratic Union, 119 Churchill, Sir Winston, 23, 336,

345ff,365,386,392 Citrine, Sir Walter, 268 Civil Service and party politics,

194ff, 373, 379ff, 427ff Clark,Percy,145, 193 Class, 18, 29ff Clynes,J. R., 343,351 Coalition government, 120ff, 330ff,

449, 472ff Cockfield, Sir Arthur, 394 Colman, Prentisand Varley, 87,193 Common Market, 24, 47, 97,307,

312,327ff,334,338~357 Communist parties, 6, 59, 143 Confederation of British Industries,

250 Conference, Annual party, 133ff,

162ff, 198ff, 264ff, 348 Conservative Political Centre, 228 Constituency parties, 62ff, 148ff,

167ff, 198ff, 220ff, 248ff

Index

Converse, Philip, 37 Co-operative societies in politics,

142ff, 150, 232f, 239 Cope, John, 399 Cousins, Frank, 268, 343, 369 Cripps, Sir Stafford, 327, 350 Crosland, C. A. R., 329 Crossbow, 325 Crossman, Richard, 23, 83, 193, 387 Crowther-Hunt, Lord (Norman

Hunt), 459

Dahl, Robert, 340 Daily Herald, 193 Daily Mirror, 193, 442 Daley, Mayor Richard, 269 Davies, Clement, 329 Davis, Peter, 87 Deakin, Arthur, 268, 304 Democratic Party, U.S.A., 6, 269 Denmark, 17,48,111 Disraeli, Benjamin, 298f Donoghue, Dr Bernard, 458 Douglas, James, 140, 182, 392 Douglas-Home, Sir Alec, 79, 8lf, 86,

93,336,357,363,392 Downs, Anthony, 107, 474 Driberg, Tom, 193 Du Cann, Edward, 226

Economic League, 224 Economist Intelligence Unit, 394 Eden, Sir Anthony, 346, 348, 365,

436 Education, 54ff Eisenhower, Dwight D., 345, 351 Elections, 8ff, 29ff, 60ff, 9lff,

111 ff, 15lff Electrical and Plumbing Trades

Union, 144 Engineers' Union, Amalgamated,

144,239,304,343

Fabian Society, 252, 300, 325 Fainsod, Merle, 434 Fairlie, Dr Lyndelle, 171, 174 Fascist parties, 59, 340 Field, Anthony, 441 Finance, party, 218ff, 273ff Finland, 48, 279, 408 Foot, Michael, 327, 344 Forester, Tom, 213 France, 7, 48, 123, 294, 357,408,

412, 422ff

499

Fraser, Sir Michael, 80, 140, 181, 186 Free Democrats, German, 119 Friedrich, Carl, 93 Fulton Committee on the Civil

Service, 360, 422, 428, 446, 454, 469f

Gaitskell, Hugh, 23, 49, 83, 163, 266, 288,301,323,328,336,338, 342, 348, 351, 388ff

Gallup Poll, 26ff, 333, 346f, 493 Garrett, John and Sheldon, Robert,

446f General and Municipal Workers'

Union, 144 Germany, 6, 119, 123, 276, 279,

345,353 Ginsburg, David, 183 Gladstone, William, 69, 433 Greenwood, Arthur, 182 Griffiths, Jim, 388, 390 Grimond, Jo, 330

Hailsham, Lord, 392 Haines, Joe, 441 Harding, Warren, 345 Hardy, Keir, 345 Harker, Donald, 140, 193 Harris,John,399,451 Hayward, Ron, 80, 145, 157 Headey, Bruce, 373,401,419 Heath, Edward, 21, 23, 25, 27, 49,

64, 79, 82, 135, 140f, 182, 225, 252, 257, 297, 299f, 310, 312, 317,336,338,347,349,351, 357. 366, 368ff, 383, 386, 392f, 395ff, 441, 457,460, 474

Henderson, Arthur, !146 Hirshfield, Lord, 442 Howell, David, 394f Hudson, Miles, 399 Hunt, Sir John, 457 Hurd,Douglas,395,399 Hutchinson, George, 82, 193

Independent Labour Party, 300, 327f India, 98 Industrial Reorganisation Corporation,

223 Institute of Practitioners of Adver­

tising, 196 Institute of Public Relations, 196 International Publishing Corporation,

441

500

Ireland, 8, 17, 98, 118, 294 Irish Labour Party, 149 Irish Republican Army, 9 Iron and Steel Federation, 87 Israel, 276 Italy, 48, 111, 276, 294, 408

Jackson, RobertJ., 324 Jameson, Conrad, Associates, 252 Janosik, Edward, 158, 212 Jenkins, Peter, 356 Jenkins, Roy, 327,346,399,440,

451 Johnson, Nevil, 121 Jones, Jack, 268, 304, 344 Joseph, Sir Keith, 405

Kaufman, Gerald, 399 Kaunda, Kenneth, 96 Kavanagh, Dennis, 62, 66 Kendall, William, 465 Kennedy,J. F., 345,351 Kilbrandon Commission on the

Constitution, 459 Kingsley, David, 87, 193 Kornberg, Allen and Frasure,

Robert, 312

Lansbury, George, 336, 346 Lasswell, Harold, 345 Law, A. Bonar, 345 Leadership of parties, 26, 49ff, 64,

75, 85f, 95, 134ff, 204ff, 336ff, 359ff

Left Book Club, 328 Left-right dimension, 57 Liberal Party, 12f, 22f, 33, 41, 44f,

48ff, 57, 65, 70f, 101, 114ff, 127, 139,169,276,283,305,319,334

Liberal-Country Alliance, Australia, 57

Liberal Unionist Party, 319 Liberals (Canadian party), 6, 57 Life style, 36f Lloyd, Selwyn, 251 Lloyd George, David, 319, 345, 351,

459 Local government, 17ff, 72, 154ff London School of Economics, 341 Lowell, A. L., 109, 198 Luxembourg, 1 7 Lyons, Dennis, 87

Index

McCallum, R. B., 94 MacDonald, Ramsay, 53, 55, 120,

345f, 350, 352 MacGregor, John, 395 McKenzie, Robert T., 92, 94, 162f,

199, 200, 340ff, 344ff, 355f Mackenzie, W.J. M., 421,470 Macleod, lain, 182, 363 Macmillan, Harold, 23ff, 49, 81, 83,

288f,334,341,346f,350,354, 357, 365f, 414

McNally, Tom, 145 Manifesto, party, 314, 409ff Market Opinion Research Inter·

national, 189 Market Research Society, 195 Marples, Ernest, 394, 402 Mass-Observation, 106 Maudling, Reginald, 182, 300, 393 Maxwell-Fyfe Report, 251 Media men, 74ff, 83f, 86f Meyjes, Richard, 395,401 Michels, Robert, 337, 340, 344, 348,

358,380 Miliband, Ralph, 200 Mineworkers' Union, 144, 239 Monday Club, 326 Morrell, Derek, 470 Morrison, Herbert, 23, 52, 301, 348,

388 Murray, Albert, 441 Mussolini, Benito, 340

National Opinion Polls, 189 National Party, New Zealand, 57 National Union of Journalists, 196 National Union of Labour

Organisers, 253f Nationalisation, opposition to, 74f,

78, 80, 82, 87f Nepal, 92 Netherlands, 111 Neustadt, Richard, 351, 353, 356,

471 Nigeria, 92 Nixon, Richard, 345, 436 Northcott, Jim, 252 Northern Ireland, 11, 26, 43, 46, 59,

95,116,118,122,124,149,276, 281

Northern Ireland Labour Party, 149 Northern Rhodesia, 96 Norway,48,57,144

Index

Nuffield election studies, 69, 73, 86, 94,391,397

Oakeshott, Michael, 291 f Opinion Research Centre, 42, 79 Opinion surveys, 64, 78, 80, 189 Organisation, party, 3ff, 73ff, 133ff,

167ff, 218ff, 248ff, 319ff, 336ff, 379ff, 427ff

Palmerston, Lord, 432 Parliament, Members of, 49ff, 6lff,

153ff, 248ff, 306ff, 336ff, 359ff Parliamentary party politics, 111 ff,

135ff, 264ff, 306, 319ff, 330ff, 379ff, 427ff

Parrott, Sir Cecil, 473,476 Participation, 14ff, 91 ff, 198ff,

249ff Parties (see entries under individual

topics) Party systems, 3ff, lOff, lllff, 215ff,

287ff, 330ff Peel, Sir Robert, 352 Phillips, Morgan, 163, 389 Pike, Miss Mervyn, 395 Pimlott, Ben, 252 Pitt, Terry J., 145, 183f Plaid Cymru, 12, 26, 44f, 116, 276 Plan for an Efficient Party (PEP), 252 Poole, Lord, 80, 82f Postal votes, 71 Powell, Enoch, 46, 182, 215, 297,

326,338~346,348f,363 Pressure for Economic and Social

Toryism (PEST), 325 Prior,James, 140 Propaganda, 73ff Proportional representation, 116ff Public Sector Research Unit, 394f Punnett, Malcolm, 386 Putnam, Robert, 311

Race, 45 Ranney, A. and Kendall, W., 320 Rayner, Derek, 463 Reading, Brian, 395,400,441 Referendum, 16, 9 5 Regulation of parties by statute, 248 Religion, 42f, 46 Renwick, Lord, 224 Research, political, 180ff, 38lff,

436ff

Research Services, 189 Richman, Alf, 441 Roe-Compton, 87 Roosevelt, F. D., 345f Roosevelt, Theodore, 346 Rose, R. and Mossawir, H., 100ff Ross, Donald, 192 Rossiter, Clinton, 352 Rothschild, Lord, 401 Rowntree, Joseph, Social Service

Trust Ltd, 440, 452

Salisbury, Lord, 36& Scanlon, Hugh, 268, 304, 343 Schattschneider, E. E., 340 Schreiber, Mark, 394f, 400 Schumpeter,Joseph, 92, 340f Scotland, 43ff, 95, 140, 281

501

Scottish National Party, 12f, 25f, 41, 44f, 116, 219, 276

Sewill, Brendon, 188, 394, 400 Shaw, Tom, 332 Shils, Edward, 93 Shinwell, Emanuel, 384 Shop, Distributive and Allied Workers

Union (USDAW), 144, 239 Shore, Peter, 183, 188, 390f Simpson, William, 252 Sinn Fein, 9, 97 Sisson, C. H., 423f Social Democratic and Labour

Party, 149 Social Democrats, German, 119 Socialist International, 19 Spectator, 193 Spicer, Michael, 395 Sternberg, Sigmund, 442 Stockport, 98ff Stutchbury,Oliver, 247, 252ff Sweden,48,57, 144,279f Swing,25, 70 Swinton College, 228, 396

Taverne, Dick, 25 Taylor, Humphrey, 189 Thompson, T. F., 189 Thorpe, jeremy, 330 Trade unions in politics, 34, 47, 49f,

142ff, 150, 23lff, 268ff, 304f, 343f

Transport and General Workers' Union, 144, 163, 239, 304, 343f

Trend, Sir Burke, 457

502

Tribune,215,328 TUC, 81,250 Tucker, Geoffrey, 193 Turnout, 126

Ulster Unionists, 149 Underhill, H. R., 145 University education, 55 Urban-rural differences, 39, 44f, 47 USA, 6, 20, 30, 50, 70, 74f, 81, 85,

95f, 123, 147f, 179. 199, 248, 259,276,349,351,353,357, 364, 404, 407f, 412, 433, 435f, 470f

USSR,345,433

Verba, Sidney, 353

Wales, 44ff, 95, 149, 281 Walkland, S. A., 431 Wallas, Graham, 109, 346 Webb, Sidney and Beatrice, 300, 329 Weber, Max, 168 Webster, Sir Richard, 140

Index

Wheatcroft, Professor G. S. A., 349 Whitelaw, William, 122, 412 Williams, Len, 267 Williams, Marcia, 399, 441, 457 Williams, Philip, 7 2 Willson, F. M.G., 371 Wilson, Harold, 21, 23f 27, 48f, 53,

64, 80ff, 120, 129' 135, 143, 183, 188,217,252,257,268,289, 291, 300f, 310, 327ff, 340, 346ff, 363, 366, 368ff, 390f, 397, 399, 402, 404, 406, 408ff, 428, 441 f, 446, 451, 453f, 457ff

Wilson, Woodrow, 346 Wolff, Michael, 395, 399, 441 Wood, David, 12lf, 142 Woolton, Lord, 165,391 Working-Men's Clubs, 156 Wyldbore-Smith, Major General F. B.,

222

Young Conservatives, 249, 251 Young Liberal movement, 329 Young, Michael, 56