“asking & answering ambiguous questions”envisioning future opportunities… …requires...

“ASKING & ANSWERING AMBIGUOUS QUESTIONS”

Strategic Foresight

Strategic Foresight

“A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.” Wayne Gretzky

Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 2

Why do market

leaders so often get

caught off guard?

(i.e. play where

the puck used to be)


How did HP not foresee the “Post-PC era”?

“We know we’re the fifth man in a four man race.” Richard Kerris, HP Executive, WSJ, July 1, 2011


How did Kodak so underestimate the potential of digital photography…?

Can you guess who invented the

world’s first digital camera in 1975?

Bonus Question:


Mindset


Incumbents

“In business, I look for economic castles

protected by unbreachable ‘moats’.”

Warren Buffett

Competitive Convergence


Breakthrough Innovation

… all failed companies are the same –

they failed to escape competition.”

Peter Thiel

Mindset


Disruptors

Incumbents

Strategic Foresight

Position A

Position B

Can be a lens to uncontested strategic options


Existing Value Attributes New Value Attributes

Stretch Your Cognitive Proximity

Status

Quo

A

B

Enabling Technologies

Societal

Challenges/Constraints User Preferences

Breakthrough Innovation Core

Innovation

Breakthrough Innovations are likely to be

cognitively distant. Copyright © 2015. Samuel Miller. All rights reserved. 11

Stretching Your Cognitive Proximity

“You don’t get results by solving problems

but by exploiting opportunities” John Naisbitt, Mindset, 2006

If Fred Smith would have

tried to fix the post office,

he wouldn’t have created

FedEx


Cognitive Distance – “Moonshots”

That’s Great…

… but how do we get there from here?

And how do we avoid this?

Strategic Foresight THE ABILITY TO:

ANTICIPATE EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES

THAT ARE COGNITIVELY DISTANT

DEFINE RESILIENT PLANS TO ENABLE

THEIR PURSUIT

Judging Too Soon

Deciding Too Late


Strategic Foresight

Mobilizing

Anticipating

Framing

“Get There Early”


Strategic Framing


What Is Your Unfair Advantage?

Strategic Framing

• Competencies (Activities) • Strategic Intent • Integration (Fit)

Competence 1

Competence 2 Competence 3

Strategic Intent

Wheelhouse


Anticipating Change

“Most commonly, new [strategic] positions open up because of change.”

Michael Porter


Possibilities, not Predictions

Envisioning Future Opportunities…

…Requires Empathy

“You’ve gotta start at the user experience

and work back to the technology” Steve Jobs

WWDC 1997

“… they’d have said a ‘faster horse’”

Henry Ford

Future

^

21

Overcoming Cognitive Inertia


“People who seem to have had a new idea,

have simply stopped having an old idea.”

Edwin Land Co-founder, Polaroid Corp.

FutureTelling

“Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous”

Jim Dator, Futurist

University of Hawai’i

“Even a forecast that never happens is worthwhile if it provokes insight for you.”

Bob Johansen Institute For The Future

Mobilizing (Actionable Foresight)


“Long range planning does not deal with future decisions, but with the future of present decisions.” —Peter Drucker

Source: Get There Early, Bob Johansen,

Wind Tunnel Testing the Wheelhouse

What gaps exist in serving the emerging opportunities? What vulnerabilities exist? Clearly defined “Innovation Intent”


Scanning for Weak Signals

“Market transitions are the

precursors to market disruptions, and in many cases, transitions cause the disruptions.”

“Disruptions occur as the

market responds to a transition with a game-changing innovation.”

John Chambers, CEO, Cisco

“Cisco Sees the Future, An Interview with John Chambers”, HBR 2008


DISCOVERY CONSISTS OF SEEING WHAT EVERYONE ELSE HAS SEEN AND THINKING WHAT NO ONE HAS THOUGHT.

ALBERT VON SZENT-GYORGYI (1893 – 1986)

NOBEL PRIZE IN PHYSIOLOGY (MEDICINE)

MINDSET


Exec Ed Course Structure

I hear… and I forget

I see… and I remember

I do… and I understand

Confucius


Team Project Overview

Electric Vehicles Mobile Computing


Intriguing Questions…

…for the Executive MBA Council



How will augmented reality

impact learning?

the need for ^



W.W.G.P.D.?


INSTITUTIONS IN THE

WORLD THAT DELIVER

HIGHER EDUCATION.” 10 “50 YEARS FROM NOW,

THERE WILL ONLY BE

-SEBASTIAN THRUN, STANFORD UNIVERSITY & UDACITY

WIRED MAGAZINE, MARCH 20, 2012



W.W.U.D.?


Questions & Discussion…


Thank You

36

Sam Miller [email protected]

574-631-6732

“asking & answering ambiguous questions”envisioning future opportunities… …requires...

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