annual general meeting 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013...

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ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 Quesnel, B.C.

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Page 1: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 Quesnel, B.C.

Page 2: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

2

450

950

1,450

1,950

2,450

US Housing Starts (thousands) Monthly Averages

Peak Jan 73

Bottom Feb 75

Peak April 78

Bottom Jan 82

Peak Feb 84

Bottom Jan 91

Peak Jan 06

Bottom Nov 2009

U.S. Housing Starts

Underlying demand

Source: U.S. Census Bureau/FEA

Page 3: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

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400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

U.S. Housing Starts

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Page 4: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

4

U.S. Existing Home Sales

Source: National Association of Realtors/FEA

3,200

3,700

4,200

4,700

5,200

5,700

6,200

6,700

7,200

7,700

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Pre-bubble average

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Page 5: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

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1,700

2,200

2,700

3,200

3,700

4,200

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Pre-bubble average

Seasonally Adjusted

U.S. Existing Home Inventory

Source: National Association of Realtors/FEA

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Page 6: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

6

U.S. Household Formation

Source: FEA

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Average 1980-2007

Page 7: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

7

U.S. Real Home Prices

Source: FEA

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

300,000

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Trend for 1970-2000 period

Median Single-Family Home Prices in 2014 Q1 dollars

Page 8: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

8

U.S. Home Price-to-Rent Ratio

Source: FEA

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

Average for 1983-2000 period

Index, 2000=100

Page 9: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

9

U.S. Home Affordability Index

Source: National Association of Realtors, FEA

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

Page 10: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

10

U.S. New Home Inventory

Source: U.S. Census Bureau/FEA

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Pre-bubble average

Seasonally Adjusted

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Page 11: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

11

Canadian Shipments to China

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

MM

fbm

Source: Council of Forest Industries

Equivalent to 300,000 housing starts

Page 12: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

12 Source: Random Lengths

Benchmark Lumber Prices

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14

US

$/M

fbm

SYP W-#2 W

SPF-2&Btr

SPF-#3 Util

2012 2011 2013 2014

Page 13: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

13

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

2011 2012 2013

NBSK China

BCTMP China

US

$/t

on

ne

Source: RISI

Benchmark Pulp Prices

Page 14: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

14

2013 2012

Sales 3,474 3,000

Earnings 349 77

EBITDA 529 275

Net debt to capital 8% 12%

($ millions, except as otherwise indicated)

Financial Summary

Page 15: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

15

• Hired 475 employees in 2013

– 283 of salaried employees (21%) changed jobs

• Increased apprenticeships by

400% since 2007

• Growth and development – College of New Caledonia

“West Fraser Tech Centre”

– Internal programs, mentoring

– Sauder School of Business, UBC

• Named one of Canada’s: – 10 Best Companies to Work For (2014)

– Best Employers for Recent Graduates (2014)

– Canada’s Top 100 Employers (2013 & 2014)

– BC’s Top Employers (2013 & 2014)

Employees and Development

Page 16: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

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Chasm Trimsaw- Before

16

Page 17: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

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Chasm Trim Saw- After

17

Page 18: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

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2013 2012

Production (Million board feet)

Canada

3,571

3,466

United States 1,582 1,488

Sales 2,315 1,855

Operating Earnings 314 90

Capital Expenditures

281 114

($ millions, except as otherwise indicated)

Lumber Segment

Page 19: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

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West Fraser Lumber Capacity

B.C. Interior Alberta U.S. South

U.S.

South

37%

B.C.

39%

Pro Forma Lumber Capacity

(after planned capital 2H-2015)

6.3 Billion feet

Alberta

24%

U.S.

South

9%

B.C.

70% Alberta

21%

Lumber Capacity 2004

4.3 Billion feet

Page 20: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

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Post-beetle production back to 1980’s and 90’s levels.

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

MM

fbm

Source: West Fraser/ Wood Markets

Forecast

B.C. Interior Lumber Production

Page 21: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

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Wood Costs Are Rising Quickly

January 2011 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014

Ave

rag

e W

oo

d C

ost

$/m

3

Average Wood Cost Trend

Quesnel Alberta

52% increase

21% increase

Page 22: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

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2013 2012

Plywood Production

Million square feet (MMsf 3/8” basis)

781

793

MDF Production (MMsf ¾” basis) 204 195

LVL Production

Thousand cubic feet (Mcf) 1,848 1,964

Sales 467 448

Operating Earnings 28 38

Capital Expenditures 5 5

($ millions, except as otherwise indicated)

Panels Segment

Page 23: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

23

2013 2012

Production

BCTMP (thousand Mtonnes)

603

620

NBSK (thousand Mtonnes) 496 529

Newsprint (thousand Mtonnes) 119 128

Sales 780 775

Operating Earnings 58 62

Capital Expenditures

71 38

($ millions, except as otherwise indicated)

Pulp & Paper Segment

Page 24: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

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Major Energy Projects

– Chetwynd: ORC energy system

– Fraser Lake: ORC energy

system

– QRP: Low consistency refiners

– Slave Lake Pulp: Biogas plant

– Alberta Newsprint Company:

Natural gas plant

Major Capital Projects

– 100 Mile: Sawmill rebuild

– Armour: New lug loader,

trimmer & stacker

– Augusta: 2 continuous kilns

– Edson: Sawmill rebuild in

progress

– Hinton: Continuous kiln

– Huttig: 2nd continuous kiln,

planer sorter

– Joyce: 2nd continuous kiln

– Leola: 2nd continuous kiln and

new planer

– Maplesville: 2nd continuous kiln

– Newberry: 2 continuous kilns,

new planer

– Opelika: 2 continuous kilns

– Smithers: Continuous kiln,

sawmill rebuild

– Whitehouse: New canter line

– Williams Lake sawmill: Planer

starting up

Major Capital Projects

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0

100

200

300

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

$ Millions

West Fraser Capital Spending

Page 26: ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Housing Starts Source: U.S. Census Bureau nds

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