annual general meeting 2014 · 3 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013...
TRANSCRIPT
ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2014 Quesnel, B.C.
2
450
950
1,450
1,950
2,450
US Housing Starts (thousands) Monthly Averages
Peak Jan 73
Bottom Feb 75
Peak April 78
Bottom Jan 82
Peak Feb 84
Bottom Jan 91
Peak Jan 06
Bottom Nov 2009
U.S. Housing Starts
Underlying demand
Source: U.S. Census Bureau/FEA
3
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
U.S. Housing Starts
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
4
U.S. Existing Home Sales
Source: National Association of Realtors/FEA
3,200
3,700
4,200
4,700
5,200
5,700
6,200
6,700
7,200
7,700
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pre-bubble average
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
5
1,700
2,200
2,700
3,200
3,700
4,200
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pre-bubble average
Seasonally Adjusted
U.S. Existing Home Inventory
Source: National Association of Realtors/FEA
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
6
U.S. Household Formation
Source: FEA
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Average 1980-2007
7
U.S. Real Home Prices
Source: FEA
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
280,000
300,000
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Trend for 1970-2000 period
Median Single-Family Home Prices in 2014 Q1 dollars
8
U.S. Home Price-to-Rent Ratio
Source: FEA
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
Average for 1983-2000 period
Index, 2000=100
9
U.S. Home Affordability Index
Source: National Association of Realtors, FEA
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
10
U.S. New Home Inventory
Source: U.S. Census Bureau/FEA
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pre-bubble average
Seasonally Adjusted
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
11
Canadian Shipments to China
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
MM
fbm
Source: Council of Forest Industries
Equivalent to 300,000 housing starts
12 Source: Random Lengths
Benchmark Lumber Prices
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14
US
$/M
fbm
SYP W-#2 W
SPF-2&Btr
SPF-#3 Util
2012 2011 2013 2014
13
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
2011 2012 2013
NBSK China
BCTMP China
US
$/t
on
ne
Source: RISI
Benchmark Pulp Prices
14
2013 2012
Sales 3,474 3,000
Earnings 349 77
EBITDA 529 275
Net debt to capital 8% 12%
($ millions, except as otherwise indicated)
Financial Summary
15
• Hired 475 employees in 2013
– 283 of salaried employees (21%) changed jobs
• Increased apprenticeships by
400% since 2007
• Growth and development – College of New Caledonia
“West Fraser Tech Centre”
– Internal programs, mentoring
– Sauder School of Business, UBC
• Named one of Canada’s: – 10 Best Companies to Work For (2014)
– Best Employers for Recent Graduates (2014)
– Canada’s Top 100 Employers (2013 & 2014)
– BC’s Top Employers (2013 & 2014)
Employees and Development
16
Chasm Trimsaw- Before
16
17
Chasm Trim Saw- After
17
18
2013 2012
Production (Million board feet)
Canada
3,571
3,466
United States 1,582 1,488
Sales 2,315 1,855
Operating Earnings 314 90
Capital Expenditures
281 114
($ millions, except as otherwise indicated)
Lumber Segment
19
West Fraser Lumber Capacity
B.C. Interior Alberta U.S. South
U.S.
South
37%
B.C.
39%
Pro Forma Lumber Capacity
(after planned capital 2H-2015)
6.3 Billion feet
Alberta
24%
U.S.
South
9%
B.C.
70% Alberta
21%
Lumber Capacity 2004
4.3 Billion feet
20
Post-beetle production back to 1980’s and 90’s levels.
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
MM
fbm
Source: West Fraser/ Wood Markets
Forecast
B.C. Interior Lumber Production
21
Wood Costs Are Rising Quickly
January 2011 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014
Ave
rag
e W
oo
d C
ost
$/m
3
Average Wood Cost Trend
Quesnel Alberta
52% increase
21% increase
22
2013 2012
Plywood Production
Million square feet (MMsf 3/8” basis)
781
793
MDF Production (MMsf ¾” basis) 204 195
LVL Production
Thousand cubic feet (Mcf) 1,848 1,964
Sales 467 448
Operating Earnings 28 38
Capital Expenditures 5 5
($ millions, except as otherwise indicated)
Panels Segment
23
2013 2012
Production
BCTMP (thousand Mtonnes)
603
620
NBSK (thousand Mtonnes) 496 529
Newsprint (thousand Mtonnes) 119 128
Sales 780 775
Operating Earnings 58 62
Capital Expenditures
71 38
($ millions, except as otherwise indicated)
Pulp & Paper Segment
24
Major Energy Projects
– Chetwynd: ORC energy system
– Fraser Lake: ORC energy
system
– QRP: Low consistency refiners
– Slave Lake Pulp: Biogas plant
– Alberta Newsprint Company:
Natural gas plant
Major Capital Projects
– 100 Mile: Sawmill rebuild
– Armour: New lug loader,
trimmer & stacker
– Augusta: 2 continuous kilns
– Edson: Sawmill rebuild in
progress
– Hinton: Continuous kiln
– Huttig: 2nd continuous kiln,
planer sorter
– Joyce: 2nd continuous kiln
– Leola: 2nd continuous kiln and
new planer
– Maplesville: 2nd continuous kiln
– Newberry: 2 continuous kilns,
new planer
– Opelika: 2 continuous kilns
– Smithers: Continuous kiln,
sawmill rebuild
– Whitehouse: New canter line
– Williams Lake sawmill: Planer
starting up
Major Capital Projects
25
0
100
200
300
400
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$ Millions
West Fraser Capital Spending
26