ubs investor sentiment · 22% pessimistic vs. vs. 52% vs. vs. confidence on us stocks also jumps...
Post on 21-Feb-2021
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UBS Investor Sentiment US 4Q19
The big jump US investor confidence soars after a year of strong returns
Optimism moves higher
US economy Global economy
optimistic 19% neutral 26% pessimistic
optimistic 20% neutral 25% pessimistic
55%55% optimistic 16% neutral 16% pessimistic
68%
3Q 2Q
optimistic 29% neutral 30% pessimistic
41%
3Q 2Q4Q 4Q
optimistic 27% neutral 35% pessimistic
38% optimistic 26% neutral 22% pessimistic
52% VS. VS.VS. VS.
Confidence on US stocks also jumps
4Q 3Q 2Q
50% 53%64% VS. VS.
optimistic optimistic optimistic 22% neutral 27% neutral 25% neutral 14% pessimistic 23% pessimistic 22% pessimistic
However, some recession concerns linger
26% “I think a global recession
is highly likely in the next 12 months.”
On investing and trade > 1 of 4
Virtually all investors’ portfolios were up in 2019
97%
17% Extremely positive ( 20%+)
47% Very positive ( 10-19%)
33% Somewhat positive ( 0-9%)
3% AND ONLY
Positive returns Negative returns
2% Somewhat negative ( 1-9%)
1% Very negative ( 10%+)
Investors still hold significant cash ... ... and some are looking to invest
4Q 3Q 2Q
21% of assets are in cash
unchanged
“I plan to invest more in the next 6 months.”
31%27% VS. VS. 37%
Investors see signs of progress in US-China trade conflict ...
78% “The ‘Phase 1’ agreement signals progress in trade relations.”
... and they think “Phase 1” of the agreement is good for both countries
Impact on US economy
Impact on Chinese economy
63% 56% positive 23% neutral 14% negative
positive 26% neutral 18% negative
Overall, investors expect US-China tensions to continue over next 5 years
38% 39% 23% More confrontation Same level of confrontation Less confrontation
On impeachment and the election > 2 of 4
Top investor concerns
55% 5% 51% 3% 48% Political environment National debt 2020 presidential election
Views on impeachment
Most don’t expect Trump to leave office early
78%
“I do not think he’ll be removed from office.”
17%
“I think he’ll be removed from office.”
5%
“I’m not sure.”
More positive outlook on economy if Trump stays in office
Impact if Trump stays
Impact if Trump is removed
VS.
49% positive
36% neutral
15% negative
35% positive
25% neutral
40% negative
For the 2020 election, the economy is the top issue
81% 77% 72% Economy Healthcare Foreign policy
Donald Trump seen as more likely to win
46% 54% Democratic candidate Donald Trump
Investors see Trump as best candidate for the economy, Democrat best for healthcare and foreign policy
Democratic candidate Donald Trump
Economy
Healthcare
Foreign policy
45% 55%
58% 42%
56% 44%
Business owner spotlight > 3 of 4
Business owner spotlight Owners’ optimism about their business remains steady
4Q 3Q 2Q
73%72% 81%VS. VS.
optimistic 18% neutral 10% pessimistic
optimistic 18% neutral 9% pessimistic
optimistic 16% neutral 3% pessimistic
Plans to hire up for 2020 4Q 3Q 2Q
“I plan to hire more.” 37% 31% 46%VS. VS.
Top business concerns
52% 52% 51% Cyber security Rising healthcare costs Taxes
5% 4% 1%
Are you seizing investment opportunities in today’s market? Talk to your UBS Financial Advisor.
About the survey: UBS surveyed 915 investors and 500 business owners in the US with at least $1M in investable assets (for investors) or at least $250k in annual revenue and at least one employee other than themselves (for business owners), from December 26, 2019 - January 7, 2020. For the 3Q19 results, UBS surveyed 905 investors and 506 business owners in the US, from September 27 - October 8, 2019. For the 2Q19 results, UBS surveyed 733 investors and 210 business owners in the US, from June 3 - July 5, 2019.
As a firm providing wealth management services to clients, UBS Financial Services Inc. offers both investment advisory services and brokerage services, which are separate and distinct, differ in material ways and governed by different laws and separate contracts. For more information visit our website at ubs.com/workingwithus.
© UBS 2020. The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS. All rights reserved. UBS Financial Services Inc. is a subsidiary of UBS AG. Member FINRA/SIPC. Expiration: 1/31/2021 Review Code: IS2000253 Approval date: 1/13/2020 2020-224690
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