UBS Investor Sentiment US 4Q19

The big jump US investor confidence soars after a year of strong returns

Optimism moves higher

US economy Global economy

optimistic 19% neutral 26% pessimistic

optimistic 20% neutral 25% pessimistic

55%55% optimistic 16% neutral 16% pessimistic

68%

3Q 2Q

optimistic 29% neutral 30% pessimistic

41%

3Q 2Q4Q 4Q

optimistic 27% neutral 35% pessimistic

38% optimistic 26% neutral 22% pessimistic

52% VS. VS.VS. VS.

Confidence on US stocks also jumps

4Q 3Q 2Q

50% 53%64% VS. VS.

optimistic optimistic optimistic 22% neutral 27% neutral 25% neutral 14% pessimistic 23% pessimistic 22% pessimistic

However, some recession concerns linger

26% “I think a global recession

is highly likely in the next 12 months.”

On investing and trade > 1 of 4

Virtually all investors’ portfolios were up in 2019

97%

17% Extremely positive ( 20%+)

47% Very positive ( 10-19%)

33% Somewhat positive ( 0-9%)

3% AND ONLY

Positive returns Negative returns

2% Somewhat negative ( 1-9%)

1% Very negative ( 10%+)

Investors still hold significant cash ... ... and some are looking to invest

4Q 3Q 2Q

21% of assets are in cash

unchanged

“I plan to invest more in the next 6 months.”

31%27% VS. VS. 37%

Investors see signs of progress in US-China trade conflict ...

78% “The ‘Phase 1’ agreement signals progress in trade relations.”

... and they think “Phase 1” of the agreement is good for both countries

Impact on US economy

Impact on Chinese economy

63% 56% positive 23% neutral 14% negative

positive 26% neutral 18% negative

Overall, investors expect US-China tensions to continue over next 5 years

38% 39% 23% More confrontation Same level of confrontation Less confrontation

On impeachment and the election > 2 of 4

Top investor concerns

55% 5% 51% 3% 48% Political environment National debt 2020 presidential election

Views on impeachment

Most don’t expect Trump to leave office early

78%

“I do not think he’ll be removed from office.”

17%

“I think he’ll be removed from office.”

5%

“I’m not sure.”

More positive outlook on economy if Trump stays in office

Impact if Trump stays

Impact if Trump is removed

VS.

49% positive

36% neutral

15% negative

35% positive

25% neutral

40% negative

For the 2020 election, the economy is the top issue

81% 77% 72% Economy Healthcare Foreign policy

Donald Trump seen as more likely to win

46% 54% Democratic candidate Donald Trump

Investors see Trump as best candidate for the economy, Democrat best for healthcare and foreign policy

Democratic candidate Donald Trump

Economy

Healthcare

Foreign policy

45% 55%

58% 42%

56% 44%

Business owner spotlight > 3 of 4

Business owner spotlight Owners’ optimism about their business remains steady

4Q 3Q 2Q

73%72% 81%VS. VS.

optimistic 18% neutral 10% pessimistic

optimistic 18% neutral 9% pessimistic

optimistic 16% neutral 3% pessimistic

Plans to hire up for 2020 4Q 3Q 2Q

“I plan to hire more.” 37% 31% 46%VS. VS.

Top business concerns

52% 52% 51% Cyber security Rising healthcare costs Taxes

5% 4% 1%

Are you seizing investment opportunities in today’s market? Talk to your UBS Financial Advisor.

About the survey: UBS surveyed 915 investors and 500 business owners in the US with at least $1M in investable assets (for investors) or at least $250k in annual revenue and at least one employee other than themselves (for business owners), from December 26, 2019 - January 7, 2020. For the 3Q19 results, UBS surveyed 905 investors and 506 business owners in the US, from September 27 - October 8, 2019. For the 2Q19 results, UBS surveyed 733 investors and 210 business owners in the US, from June 3 - July 5, 2019.

As a firm providing wealth management services to clients, UBS Financial Services Inc. offers both investment advisory services and brokerage services, which are separate and distinct, differ in material ways and governed by different laws and separate contracts. For more information visit our website at ubs.com/workingwithus.

© UBS 2020. The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS. All rights reserved. UBS Financial Services Inc. is a subsidiary of UBS AG. Member FINRA/SIPC. Expiration: 1/31/2021 Review Code: IS2000253 Approval date: 1/13/2020 2020-224690

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