tmt predictions 2012

June 12, 2012

TMT Predictions. 2012

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

We are “predictions experts”

Not forecasters

Not futurists

1

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 2

“Deloitte predicts that a new

generation of consumer oriented

tablet computers will sell

10-12 million units in 2010.”

Predictions launch

Fairmont Montréal

January 19, 2010

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2011 TMT Predictions. Report Card

January 2012

3 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

Smartphones and tablets: More than half of all

computers aren’t computers anymore

Operating system diversity: No standard emerges

on the smartphone or tablet

Tablets in the enterprise: More than just a toy

eGov: From option to obligation

Online regulation ratchets up, but cookies

live on

Squeezing the electrons in: Batteries don’t follow

Moore’s Law

Hydrogen comes out of hiding: The alternative

alternative energy source

2011 Predictions report card Technology

4

Came true, but less than

we predicted. At least so far

Didn’t come true

as we predicted

Legend

Came true exactly as

much as we predicted

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

Television’s “super media” status strengthens

DVRs proliferate! The 30 second spot doesn’t die!

Push beats pull in the battle for the television

viewer

Social network advertising: How big can it get?

Games go online and on sale: The audience

grows, but at what price?

Keeping the life in live: A&R diversifies

Pop goes pop-up: Music retail goes seasonal

and temporary

2011 Predictions report card Media

5

Came true, but less than

we predicted. At least so far

Didn’t come true

as we predicted

Legend

Came true exactly as

much as we predicted

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

Getting to 4G cheaply: Will many carriers

opt for 3.5G instead?

Wi-Fi complements cellular broadband

for “data on the move”

What is “in store” for Wi-Fi: Online comparison

shopping on aisle 3

Video calling: The base goes mainstream,

but usage remains niche

2011 Predictions report card Telecommunications

6

Came true, but less than

we predicted. At least so far

Didn’t come true

as we predicted

Legend

Came true exactly as

much as we predicted

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 7 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 7

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Total Prediction Accuracy

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

Mythbusters

8 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 8

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

We are in the post-PC era*

9

1.5B

0.2B

1.4B

200

30

60

Internet device hours/month Internet accessing device units

300B

6B

84B

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The $100 ‘smartphone’ reaches the first half billion

17 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 17

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

The $100 ‘smartphone’ reaches the first half billion

18 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 18

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

Hard times for the hard disk: solid state storage surges

19 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 19

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

Hard times for the hard disk: solid state storage surges

20 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 20

It takes two to tablet: the rise of the multi-tablet owner

21 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 21

It takes two to tablet: the rise of the multi-tablet owner

22 22 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

It takes two to tablet: the rise of the multi-tablet owner

23 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 23

It takes two to tablet: the rise of the multi-tablet owner

24 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 24

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 25

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 26

All aboard for the catch-up commuter thanks to the portable DVR

27 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 27

All aboard for the catch-up commuter thank to the portable DVR

28 28 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

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© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

The schedule dominates, still

30

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0

20

40

60

80

100

I Love Paying for TV

I Am SeriouslyConsidering Cancelling

I Plan to Cancel

Source: Tremor Video and Magid

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 39

0

20

40

60

80

100

2011 2013

Cord Keepers

Cord Cutters

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 40 0.01

0.1

1

10

100

Cord Keepers

Cord Cutters

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 41

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592

333

228

145

57

Lightest

Fourth

Middle

Second

Heaviest

Millions of

hours of TV

watched per

day by all

Americans,

grouped by

quintiles

Source: Nielsen

4.2% of all hours

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 45

Consumer tech demand defies the economic head winds

46 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 46

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

Consumer tech demand defies the economic head winds

47

Market research is all in your head: fMRI machines and media

48 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 48

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 49

Market research is all in your head: fMRI machines and media

50 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 50

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

It’s a “brand” new day for online ads

51

2010 U.S. measured media

spend $149 Billion

2010 U.S. online media spend

$26 Billion

61%

39%

Bra

nd

ing

D

ire

ct

resp

on

se

$91B

$58B

$6B

$20B

Source: Brand.net analysis based on Barclays Capital and DMA

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

It’s a “brand” new day for online ads

52

Source: Zenith Optimedia and Deloitte estimates

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

All ads All online Online brand

2012 Ad Spending % Growth

It’s a “brand” new day for online ads

53 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 53

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It’s a “brand” new day for online ads

55 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 55

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

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