timorexpony

Web 2.0 and the Enterprise Tim O’Reilly

O’Reilly Media, Inc.www.oreilly.com

Web 2.0 Expo New YorkSeptember 18, 2008

Web Meets World Tim O’Reilly

O’Reilly Media, Inc.www.oreilly.com

Web 2.0 Expo New YorkSeptember 18, 2008

Sensors and Ambient Computing

We are moving out of the world in which people typing on keyboards will drive collective intelligence applications. Increasingly, applications are driven by new kinds of sensors.

3

4

5

6

7

3D beijing

8

Brady’s post on apple location

9

10

Turning 1.0 into 2.0

11

Web 2.0 Phone Co

Massive Data Centers Yes Yes

Data from customers Yes Yes

Data gets better all the time Yes Yes

Data mining of customer behavior

Yes Yes

Real time user-facing services based on that data

Yes No

12

13

Enterprise 2.0 means letting users into your back-office, and turning your company inside out...

Or waiting for an innovative startup to do it for you!

14

15

16 • Photo by Jeff Kubina: http://www.flickr.com/photos/kubina/47264499/in/set-1030659/

Not an investment bubble - a reality bubble!• Financial crises• Worst income inequality since the Gilded Age• Oil price shock• Global warming• Decline in science literacy & education• Water scarcity• Exotic diseases• Aging populations and soaring health costs• Decline in US economic competitiveness and innovation

• Dysfunctional political system17

18

19 • Photo by corsiworld: http://flickr.com/photos/ 88506093@N00/2680675316

It’s tough to predict the future

20

21

22

23

Forecasts by Major Oilfield Equipment Group

Active Rigs(Yearly Averages)

Scenarios for Oil Drilling: 1980–90

Forecasts by Major Oilfield Equipment Group

Active Rigs(Yearly Averages)

Actual

Scenarios for Oil Drilling: 1980–90

IBM’s original forecast for the PC

26

IBM’s original forecast for the PC

26

Scenario Planning

27

Singularity

Global Economic & Environmental Collapse

Chinaleads

USleads

Robust Strategies

28

Singularity

Global Economic & Environmental Collapse

Chinaleads

USleads

Robust Strategy #1

Work on stuff that matters!

29

Create more value than you capture

30

Pascal’s Wager

31

32

Models

February 2008 5Kevin Surace

Models

IPCC

February 2008 5Kevin Surace

Models

Discontinuous

February 2008 5Kevin Surace

To Act or Not to Act – 4 Choices

February 2008 41Kevin Surace

No Climate Change Yes Climate Change

We Act

We Do NOT Act

Concept from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI

To Act or Not to Act – 4 Choices

February 2008 41Kevin Surace

No Climate Change Yes Climate Change

We Act

We Do NOT Act

Invest MoneyInvent new technologyReduce reliance on oil

Concept from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI

To Act or Not to Act – 4 Choices

February 2008 41Kevin Surace

No Climate Change Yes Climate Change

We Act

We Do NOT Act

Invest MoneyInvent new technologyReduce reliance on oil

Life goes on

Concept from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI

To Act or Not to Act – 4 Choices

February 2008 41Kevin Surace

No Climate Change Yes Climate Change

We Act

We Do NOT Act

Invest MoneyInvent new technologyReduce reliance on oil

Invest MoneySave 1B LivesInvent new technologyReduce reliance on oil

Life goes on

Concept from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI

To Act or Not to Act – 4 Choices

February 2008 41Kevin Surace

No Climate Change Yes Climate Change

We Act

We Do NOT Act

Invest MoneyInvent new technologyReduce reliance on oil

Invest MoneySave 1B LivesInvent new technologyReduce reliance on oil

Life goes on Billions dieLarge warsHorrible famine and droughtEnd of world as we know itTotal economic collapse

Concept from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI

To Act or Not to Act – 4 Choices

February 2008 41Kevin Surace

No Climate Change Yes Climate Change

We Act

We Do NOT Act

Invest MoneyInvent new technologyReduce reliance on oil

Invest MoneySave 1B LivesInvent new technologyReduce reliance on oil

Life goes on Billions dieLarge warsHorrible famine and droughtEnd of world as we know itTotal economic collapse

Concept from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

How can I make any difference?

44

"A victory small enough to be organized is too small to be decisive."

--Eliot Janeway, Struggle for Survival

45

46

Rosie the Riveter

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Great challenge = Great opportunity

54

The Berlin Airlift• 2.3 Million tons from

277,569 total flights• One flight landing every 2

1/2 minutes, 24 hours a day, for 15 months

• At peak, one landing per minute

• Planes unloaded by local residents - volunteers -10 tons in 10 minutes!

• Development of modern methods of air traffic control

• Companies such as Boeing, Lockheed

• Ultimately, the basis for air freight companies like FedEx

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

“Visionary companies ... are not afraid to make bold commitments to ‘Big Hairy Audacious Goals’”

--Jim Collins and Jerry Porras, Built to Last

66

67

“A PC on every desk and in every home”

68

“The PC is just a toy.”

69

In 1998, search had largely been written off as a business opportunity...

70

“Organize all the world’s information”

71

Do you think we’re done yet?

72

73

74

Vote!

• If you are not registered, REGISTER NOW.• http://www.rockthevote.com/

• Inform yourself about the issues - don’t just buy the spin.

• On November 2, VOTE!

• “Bad politicians are elected by good people who don't vote.” -William Simon

75