timorexpony
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Tim O'Reilly's keynote at Web 2.0 Expo New York, Sept 2008TRANSCRIPT
Web 2.0 and the Enterprise Tim O’Reilly
O’Reilly Media, Inc.www.oreilly.com
Web 2.0 Expo New YorkSeptember 18, 2008
Web Meets World Tim O’Reilly
O’Reilly Media, Inc.www.oreilly.com
Web 2.0 Expo New YorkSeptember 18, 2008
Sensors and Ambient Computing
We are moving out of the world in which people typing on keyboards will drive collective intelligence applications. Increasingly, applications are driven by new kinds of sensors.
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3D beijing
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Brady’s post on apple location
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Turning 1.0 into 2.0
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Web 2.0 Phone Co
Massive Data Centers Yes Yes
Data from customers Yes Yes
Data gets better all the time Yes Yes
Data mining of customer behavior
Yes Yes
Real time user-facing services based on that data
Yes No
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Enterprise 2.0 means letting users into your back-office, and turning your company inside out...
Or waiting for an innovative startup to do it for you!
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16 • Photo by Jeff Kubina: http://www.flickr.com/photos/kubina/47264499/in/set-1030659/
Not an investment bubble - a reality bubble!• Financial crises• Worst income inequality since the Gilded Age• Oil price shock• Global warming• Decline in science literacy & education• Water scarcity• Exotic diseases• Aging populations and soaring health costs• Decline in US economic competitiveness and innovation
• Dysfunctional political system17
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19 • Photo by corsiworld: http://flickr.com/photos/ 88506093@N00/2680675316
It’s tough to predict the future
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Forecasts by Major Oilfield Equipment Group
Active Rigs(Yearly Averages)
Scenarios for Oil Drilling: 1980–90
Forecasts by Major Oilfield Equipment Group
Active Rigs(Yearly Averages)
Actual
Scenarios for Oil Drilling: 1980–90
IBM’s original forecast for the PC
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IBM’s original forecast for the PC
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Scenario Planning
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Singularity
Global Economic & Environmental Collapse
Chinaleads
USleads
Robust Strategies
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Singularity
Global Economic & Environmental Collapse
Chinaleads
USleads
Robust Strategy #1
Work on stuff that matters!
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Create more value than you capture
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Pascal’s Wager
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Models
February 2008 5Kevin Surace
Models
IPCC
February 2008 5Kevin Surace
Models
Discontinuous
February 2008 5Kevin Surace
To Act or Not to Act – 4 Choices
February 2008 41Kevin Surace
No Climate Change Yes Climate Change
We Act
We Do NOT Act
Concept from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI
To Act or Not to Act – 4 Choices
February 2008 41Kevin Surace
No Climate Change Yes Climate Change
We Act
We Do NOT Act
Invest MoneyInvent new technologyReduce reliance on oil
Concept from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI
To Act or Not to Act – 4 Choices
February 2008 41Kevin Surace
No Climate Change Yes Climate Change
We Act
We Do NOT Act
Invest MoneyInvent new technologyReduce reliance on oil
Life goes on
Concept from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI
To Act or Not to Act – 4 Choices
February 2008 41Kevin Surace
No Climate Change Yes Climate Change
We Act
We Do NOT Act
Invest MoneyInvent new technologyReduce reliance on oil
Invest MoneySave 1B LivesInvent new technologyReduce reliance on oil
Life goes on
Concept from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI
To Act or Not to Act – 4 Choices
February 2008 41Kevin Surace
No Climate Change Yes Climate Change
We Act
We Do NOT Act
Invest MoneyInvent new technologyReduce reliance on oil
Invest MoneySave 1B LivesInvent new technologyReduce reliance on oil
Life goes on Billions dieLarge warsHorrible famine and droughtEnd of world as we know itTotal economic collapse
Concept from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI
To Act or Not to Act – 4 Choices
February 2008 41Kevin Surace
No Climate Change Yes Climate Change
We Act
We Do NOT Act
Invest MoneyInvent new technologyReduce reliance on oil
Invest MoneySave 1B LivesInvent new technologyReduce reliance on oil
Life goes on Billions dieLarge warsHorrible famine and droughtEnd of world as we know itTotal economic collapse
Concept from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDsIFspVzfI
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How can I make any difference?
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"A victory small enough to be organized is too small to be decisive."
--Eliot Janeway, Struggle for Survival
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Rosie the Riveter
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Great challenge = Great opportunity
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The Berlin Airlift• 2.3 Million tons from
277,569 total flights• One flight landing every 2
1/2 minutes, 24 hours a day, for 15 months
• At peak, one landing per minute
• Planes unloaded by local residents - volunteers -10 tons in 10 minutes!
• Development of modern methods of air traffic control
• Companies such as Boeing, Lockheed
• Ultimately, the basis for air freight companies like FedEx
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“Visionary companies ... are not afraid to make bold commitments to ‘Big Hairy Audacious Goals’”
--Jim Collins and Jerry Porras, Built to Last
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“A PC on every desk and in every home”
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“The PC is just a toy.”
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In 1998, search had largely been written off as a business opportunity...
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“Organize all the world’s information”
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Do you think we’re done yet?
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Vote!
• If you are not registered, REGISTER NOW.• http://www.rockthevote.com/
• Inform yourself about the issues - don’t just buy the spin.
• On November 2, VOTE!
• “Bad politicians are elected by good people who don't vote.” -William Simon
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