the saskatoon economy: still growing. still growing? with mario lefebvre march 16, 2015

The Saskatoon Economy :Still growing. Still growing?

Mario LefebvrePresident & CEO, Institut de développement urbain du QuébecFormer Director, Conference Board of Canada’s Centre for Municipal Studies

Radisson Hotel, SaskatoonMarch 16, 2015

Saskatoon Economic Outlook: Highlights.

• The labour market is cooling… to a level considered “hot” in most Canadian urban centers.

• Consumers are taking (finally) a bit of a breather.

• Softer employment growth will bring about an easing in net in-migration and, in turn, a slowdown in residential construction activity.

• Manufacturing sector will benefit from the depreciation of the Canadian dollar last year.

• The public sector is financially capable to pick up some of the slack.

Source : Statistics Canada.

Labour Market.Saskatoon (Jan. 2001 – Jan. 2015).

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1575

95

115

135

155

175

195

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Employment (Thousands) Unemployment rate

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Employment Growth. Saskatoon (2007-16).

Sources : The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Unemployment Rate. Saskatoon (2007-16).

Sources : The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Personal Disposable Income Growth. Saskatoon (2007-16).

Source : The Conference Board of Canada

.

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Retail Sales Growth. Saskatoon (2007-16).

Source : The Conference Board of Canada

88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 1214f

16f18f

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Population Growth. Saskatoon (1988-2019).

Sources : The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Housing Starts. Saskatoon (2007-16).

Sources : The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1450

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Canada Saskatoon

Source : Statistics Canada.

New Housing Price Index. (2007=100).

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1450,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Canada Saskatoon

Sources : L’Association canadienne de l’immeuble; Fédération des chambres immobilières du Québec.

Average Price of Existing Homes Sold.

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Source : Statistics Canada.

Non-Residential Building Permits. Saskatoon (millions $, 3MMA).

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Growth in Construction Output. Saskatoon (2007-16).

Source : The Conference Board of Canada

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014

2015p0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Dollar (Left) Oil Price (Right)

The Canadian Dollar and Oil PricesWest Texas Intermediate [WTI] $ US, $ US/$ CAN

Sources : The Conference Board du Canada; U.S. Energy Information Administration; Statistics Canada.

21

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Growth in Manufacturing Output. Saskatoon (2007-16).

Source : The Conference Board of Canada

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Growth in Public Administration Output. Saskatoon (2007-16).

Source : The Conference Board of Canada

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Growth in Total Services Output. Saskatoon (2007-16).

Source : The Conference Board of Canada

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Growth in Total Real GDP. Saskatoon (2007-16).

Source : The Conference Board of Canada

Hamilton

Mon-tréal

Toronto

Victo-ria

Hali-fax

Win-nipeg

Ot-tawa-Gatineau

Québec

Vancouver

Calgary

Regina

Saskatoon

Ed-mon-ton

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

Canada (2.0)

Real GDP.Average annual growth, 2002-13.

Sources : The Conference Board du Canada, Statistics Canada.

Victo-ria

Ot-tawa-Gatineau

Hamilton

Hali-fax

Québec

Win-nipeg

Mon-tréal

Toronto

Vancouver

Calgary

Regina

Ed-mon-ton

Saskatoon

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

Canada (2.4)

Real GDP.Growth, 2014.

Source : The Conference Board of Canada

Calgary

Ot-tawa-Gatineau

Ed-mon-ton

Victo-ria

Québec

Saskatoon

Regina

Mon-tréal

Hamilton

Vancouver

Win-nipeg

Toronto

Hali-fax

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

Canada (1.9)

Real GDP.Growth, 2015.

Source : The Conference Board of Canada

Victo-ria

Hamilton

Ot-tawa-Gatineau

Québec

Regina

Mon-tréal

Saskatoon

Calgary

Win-nipeg

Ed-mon-ton

Toronto

Vancouver

Hali-fax

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

Canada (2.3)

Real GDP.Growth, 2016.

Source : The Conference Board of Canada

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Employment Growth. Saskatchewan (2007-16).

Sources : The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

Unemployment Rate. Saskatchewan (2007-16).

Sources : The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Personal Disposable Income Growth. Saskatchewan (2007-16).

Source : The Conference Board of Canada

.

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Retail Sales Growth. Saskatchewan (2007-16).

Source : The Conference Board of Canada

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

Housing Starts. Saskatchewan (2007-16).

Sources : The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC.

88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 1214f

16f18f

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Population Growth. Saskatchewan (1988-2019).

Sources : The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

Growth in Total Real GDP. Saskatchewan (2007-16).

Source : The Conference Board of Canada

5 Things to Know about the Saskatoon Economy

• It grew by nearly 70 per cent since 2000.

• 50,000 jobs were created over the past 10 years alone.

• Population grew by 80,000 over the past 20 years, reaching the 300,000 people threshold last year.

• Price of the average existing home sold jumped $200,000 over the past decade.

• You now want me to feel sorry for you because growth in your economy will just match the National average this year and next?

Mario LefebvreCEO

mlefebvre@iduquebec.com 514 866-3625 ext. 24