the saskatoon economy: still growing. still growing? with mario lefebvre march 16, 2015
TRANSCRIPT
The Saskatoon Economy :Still growing. Still growing?
Mario LefebvrePresident & CEO, Institut de développement urbain du QuébecFormer Director, Conference Board of Canada’s Centre for Municipal Studies
Radisson Hotel, SaskatoonMarch 16, 2015
Saskatoon Economic Outlook: Highlights.
• The labour market is cooling… to a level considered “hot” in most Canadian urban centers.
• Consumers are taking (finally) a bit of a breather.
• Softer employment growth will bring about an easing in net in-migration and, in turn, a slowdown in residential construction activity.
• Manufacturing sector will benefit from the depreciation of the Canadian dollar last year.
• The public sector is financially capable to pick up some of the slack.
Source : Statistics Canada.
Labour Market.Saskatoon (Jan. 2001 – Jan. 2015).
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1575
95
115
135
155
175
195
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Employment (Thousands) Unemployment rate
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Employment Growth. Saskatoon (2007-16).
Sources : The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Unemployment Rate. Saskatoon (2007-16).
Sources : The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Personal Disposable Income Growth. Saskatoon (2007-16).
Source : The Conference Board of Canada
.
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Retail Sales Growth. Saskatoon (2007-16).
Source : The Conference Board of Canada
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 1214f
16f18f
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Population Growth. Saskatoon (1988-2019).
Sources : The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Housing Starts. Saskatoon (2007-16).
Sources : The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1450
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Canada Saskatoon
Source : Statistics Canada.
New Housing Price Index. (2007=100).
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1450,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Canada Saskatoon
Sources : L’Association canadienne de l’immeuble; Fédération des chambres immobilières du Québec.
Average Price of Existing Homes Sold.
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Source : Statistics Canada.
Non-Residential Building Permits. Saskatoon (millions $, 3MMA).
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Growth in Construction Output. Saskatoon (2007-16).
Source : The Conference Board of Canada
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20132014
2015p0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Dollar (Left) Oil Price (Right)
The Canadian Dollar and Oil PricesWest Texas Intermediate [WTI] $ US, $ US/$ CAN
Sources : The Conference Board du Canada; U.S. Energy Information Administration; Statistics Canada.
21
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Growth in Manufacturing Output. Saskatoon (2007-16).
Source : The Conference Board of Canada
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Growth in Public Administration Output. Saskatoon (2007-16).
Source : The Conference Board of Canada
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Growth in Total Services Output. Saskatoon (2007-16).
Source : The Conference Board of Canada
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Growth in Total Real GDP. Saskatoon (2007-16).
Source : The Conference Board of Canada
Hamilton
Mon-tréal
Toronto
Victo-ria
Hali-fax
Win-nipeg
Ot-tawa-Gatineau
Québec
Vancouver
Calgary
Regina
Saskatoon
Ed-mon-ton
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
Canada (2.0)
Real GDP.Average annual growth, 2002-13.
Sources : The Conference Board du Canada, Statistics Canada.
Victo-ria
Ot-tawa-Gatineau
Hamilton
Hali-fax
Québec
Win-nipeg
Mon-tréal
Toronto
Vancouver
Calgary
Regina
Ed-mon-ton
Saskatoon
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
Canada (2.4)
Real GDP.Growth, 2014.
Source : The Conference Board of Canada
Calgary
Ot-tawa-Gatineau
Ed-mon-ton
Victo-ria
Québec
Saskatoon
Regina
Mon-tréal
Hamilton
Vancouver
Win-nipeg
Toronto
Hali-fax
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
Canada (1.9)
Real GDP.Growth, 2015.
Source : The Conference Board of Canada
Victo-ria
Hamilton
Ot-tawa-Gatineau
Québec
Regina
Mon-tréal
Saskatoon
Calgary
Win-nipeg
Ed-mon-ton
Toronto
Vancouver
Hali-fax
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
Canada (2.3)
Real GDP.Growth, 2016.
Source : The Conference Board of Canada
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Employment Growth. Saskatchewan (2007-16).
Sources : The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Unemployment Rate. Saskatchewan (2007-16).
Sources : The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Personal Disposable Income Growth. Saskatchewan (2007-16).
Source : The Conference Board of Canada
.
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Retail Sales Growth. Saskatchewan (2007-16).
Source : The Conference Board of Canada
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
Housing Starts. Saskatchewan (2007-16).
Sources : The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC.
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 1214f
16f18f
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Population Growth. Saskatchewan (1988-2019).
Sources : The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15f 16f-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Growth in Total Real GDP. Saskatchewan (2007-16).
Source : The Conference Board of Canada
5 Things to Know about the Saskatoon Economy
• It grew by nearly 70 per cent since 2000.
• 50,000 jobs were created over the past 10 years alone.
• Population grew by 80,000 over the past 20 years, reaching the 300,000 people threshold last year.
• Price of the average existing home sold jumped $200,000 over the past decade.
• You now want me to feel sorry for you because growth in your economy will just match the National average this year and next?
