the new south african establishment survey …
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THE NEW SOUTH AFRICAN ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY SEGMENTATION MODEL (SEM)
EXPLORING THE NEW SEGMENTATION MODEL & THE WAY FORWARD WITH THE ES, RAM & TAM
LEARNINGS FROM THE BRC…
THE PREQUEL…
“IT’S NOT ABOUT THE RESEARCH, IT’S ABOUT THE REVOLUTION…
THE OVERTHROWING OF A “SOCIAL ORDER” IN FAVOUR OF A NEW SYSTEM…
THE 40 YR OLD “SUPER JIC” AND AMPS DID NOT DO ANY JUSTICETO OUR AUDIENCE MEASUREMENT SYSTEMS…
AS THE SAARF AMPS SAMPLE LOOKED LIKE THIS…(UNWEIGHTED)
Black 53%
Coloured 15%
Indian / Asian 7%
White 25%
AND WE NEEDED A SAMPLE TO LOOK LIKE THAT…ONE THAT CLOSELY REFLECTS THE SA POPULATION
ES (unweighted) IHS Population
Source: ES July-Dec 2016 (n=12,464) Source: IHS Individual Population estimates Dec 2015
Black 81%
Coloured 10%
Indian / Asian 2%
White 7%
Black 78%
Coloured 9%
Indian / Asian 3%
White 10%
OUR STARTING POINT…
LEAVE THE “SOCIAL ORDER” OF THE SUPER JIC & AMPS…
IN FAVOUR OF A NEW SYSTEM…
SETUP THE BRC, RADIO & TV JIC – 2014 …
PUT OUT TENDERS IN FAVOUR OF A NEW SYSTEM…
WITH SAMPLES THAT…CLOSELY REFLECT THE SA POPULATION
ES (unweighted) IHS Population
Source: ES July-Dec 2016 (n=12,464) Source: IHS Individual Population estimates Dec 2015
Black 81%
Coloured 10%
Indian / Asian 2%
White 7%
Black 78%
Coloured 9%
Indian / Asian 3%
White 10%
AND A SEGMENTATION MODEL WHICH REFLECTS THE SA SOCIETY…
0 1Perfectly equal society
Perfectly unequal society
AND OF COURSE WE HAD TO DO JUSTICE TO OUR CURRENCIES…
RADIO & THE TENDER…
AS THE SAARF RAMS SAMPLELOOKED LIKE THIS…(UNWEIGHTED)
Black 56%
Coloured 17%
Indian /Asian
7%
White 21%
THIS HAD TO BE OVERTHROWN TO LOOK LIKE THIS…
Black 56%
Coloured 17%
Indian / Asian 7%
White 21%
Black 78%
Coloured 9%
Indian / Asian 3%
White 10%
SAARF RAMS SA Population (IHS)
BRC RAM
Black 76%
Coloured 12%
Indian / Asian 4%
White 8%
(Unweighted) (Unweighted)
AS WE ALL KNOW, A SKEWED SAMPLE CAN
DISTORT THE OUTCOME…
1 Girl likes Pink
WEIGHT DATA
Results 20 girls like pink
So……All girls like Pink
AND THAT WEIGHTING IS NOT A “CORRECTIVE” FACTOR, IT’S A “SAMPLE BALANCING” FACTOR…
BY AUGUST 2016, THE BRC DELIVERED A
BRAND NEW RADIO AUDIENCE
MEASUREMENT SYSTEM…
BY AUGUST 2016, THE BRC DELIVERED A BRAND NEW RADIO AUDIENCE MEASUREMENT SYSTEM…
BRC RAM – VITAL SIGNS…National sample
13,436k
Random selection, household flooding
36,447k
Universe: Population age 15+
38,3 million Q1&Q2 sample size
BRC RAM – VITAL SIGNS…
Consistent area split (sample frame)
60%
Small Urban
Rural
20%
20%
Rolling sampleStations with a small base size will be able to roll sample for6 months or 12 months
Metro
Stations included
39297
Commercial and PBS stations
Weighting efficiency85%
Community stations
BY MARCH 2017, WE INTRODUCED THE BRAND NEW ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY…
ES FAST FACTS – ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW AT A GLANCE…
Respondent pool for panel studies
Nationally representative sample of people aged 15 years+25 000 per annum, across 2 waves
IHS partnershipSample updated bi-annually
Measures media behaviour across:Viewing (TV)Listening (Radio)Reading (Newspapers, Magazines)DigitalCinemaOn the go
Platform agnosticMedia behaviour regardless of platform… thus covers changing media habits
Questionnaire extensively tested 400 quantitative pilots and numerous cognitive pilots
ConsistentSame question format across all media where relevant
Used for the development of a new socio-economic measure (SEM)
Live since 1 July 2016
ES – VITAL SIGNS…
Universe: Population age 15+
38.8 million
41% Metro
29% Urban
30% Rural
12,464 sampleJUL-DEC 2016
NATIONAL SAMPLE
DEMOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE…
25
2425
2615 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 49
50 +
16 millionHOUSEHOLDS
38.8 millionADULTS 15 YEARS+
BLACK
79%
WHITE
9%
COLOURED
9%
INDIAN
3%
3331
1918
151412
5432
ZuluEnglish
AfrikaansXhosa
SesothoSepedi
SetswanaTsonga
SwatiVenda
Ndebele
48%52%
AGE % SPOKEN LANGUAGES %
GEOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE…
41% (15.9m)
30%(11.8m)
29% (11.1m)
PROVINCE % AND POPULATION FIGURES
GP MP
LP
NW
NC
WC
EC
FSKZN
26% (10.2m)
7% (2.6m)
2% (0.8m)
5% (2.0m)
12% (4.6m)
9% (3.6m)
8% (3.0m)
19% (7.2m)
12% (4.6m)
FACTS FROM THE ES…
VIEWING REACH…
• 93% of the
population in a
week
• 95% of the
population in a
month
• 90% of the
population in a
day
VIEWING DEVICE…
TV set
10%Smartphone
Laptop/desktop
Tablet 1%
Games Console
2%
1%
97%
VIEWING LOCATION…Location
in past week %
Home 97Shopping centre/shop/bank 7
Bar/shebeen/pub/café 6
Work 5
Restaurant/coffee shop 4
Car/taxi/bus 3
School/university/college 1
LISTENING…Past 7 days
LISTENING REACH…
83% of the population in a week
87% of the population in a month
70% of the population in a day
LISTENING DEVICE…
Radio 85%
Car/taxi/bus 59%
Cellphone 38%
TV set 24%
Laptop/ desktop 3%
LISTENING LOCATION…
Home 92%
Car/taxi/bus 33%
Work 11%
University/college 1%
SNAPSHOTS BY MEDIA TYPE…
P4WEEK MEDIA LANDSCAPE…DEVICE
97 11 - - - 3 2
26 44 - 87 75 4*
- 21 90 - - 9 6
- 23 81 - - 11 8
- 94 - - - 24 11
%TV set Cellphone
Paper/printed copy
Radio set/hi-fi
Car/taxi/bus radio
Desktop/laptop Tablet
MEDIA LANDSCAPE…REACH
1 3 58
1211
2733 35 37 39
4
1117
20 2225
90 9395 95 96 96
70
8387 88 89 90
3947 49 51 52 52
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Yesterday In the last
week
In the last
month
In the last 3
months
In the last 6
months
In the last 12
months
%
TV
Radio
Newspapers
Magazines
Internet
Cinema
TELEVISION & THE ALIGNMENT..
GEARING UP FOR THE ES…
• As the ES sample, was based on new area
definitions, BRC TAMS was aligned in preparation for
the NEW ES UNIVERSE UPDATE
• In preparation…
– The IHS area definitions (METRO / URBAN /
RURAL)
– Nielsen coded the BRC TAM panel to match the
new area definitions, READY FOR WEIGHTING
– CLEAR NEW WEIGHTING MODEL
BRC TAMS INSTALLED PANEL ALIGNED TO ES TV UNIVERSE…
BRC TAMS PANEL (installed H/H)
ES TV Universe
BLACK
WHITE
BLACK
WHITE
ASIAN/INDIAN
COLOURED
ASIAN/INDIAN
COLOURED
79%
9%
3%
9%
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
August April September June
13,300,000 13,400,000 13,700,000 13,996,400
44,600,000 44,300,000 45,000,000 44,100,000
50,299,411 50,492,030 50,481,148 50,513,686
HOUSEHOLDS INDIVIDUALS HOUSEHOLDS INDIVIDUALS
ES SURVEY
SA POPULATION
BRC TAMS VITAL SIGNS…Universe: Population age 4+ 44.1 million
11 216 Individual SampleJUNE 2017
41% METRO
31%
URBAN28%
RURALTOTAL TV HOUSEHOLDS H/H
13.99 MILLION
No, of TV CHANNELS
123
BY JUNE 2017, THE BRC DELIVERED A BRAND NEW TAM WEIGHTING EFFICIENCY OF …
KPI Panel Health
Ind. weighting efficiency
H/H weighting efficiency
August2014
64.9%
54.5%
August2015
79.5%
65%
August2016
75%
65%
Ind. maximum weight 40 860 22 618 23 882
JUNE2017
93%
73%
13 487
CURRENCY – VITAL SIGNS…
41% Metro
29% Urban
30% Rural
60% Metro
20% Urban
20% Rural
41% Metro
28% Urban
31% Rural
ES SAMPLE
BRC RAM
BRC TAMS
A NEW SEGMENTATION MODEL – SEM’s
THE ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY SEM™ CONCEPTUAL STARTING POINT…
A measure that depicts how you live, not necessarily what you have
THE SEMS ARE…
Relevant and differentiating
Stable
Not overly dependent on durables
Easy to use
ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY SEM™TECHNICAL ASPECTS…
THE SEM DEVELOPMENT PROCESS…
131
household
variables
Correspon-
dence
analysis
Develop
scoring
system
Continuum
reflective of
SA
1 2 3 4
FIRST ITERATION HAD 131 VARIABLES…
-0.300
-0.200
-0.100
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
0.700
-0.800 -0.600 -0.400 -0.200 0.000 0.200 0.400 0.600 0.800 1.000 1.200 1.400
Dim
en
sio
n 2
(9
.4%
var
ian
ce e
xpla
ine
d)
Dimension 1 (61.3% variance explained)
Desired horseshoe shape
Good inertia
Total inertia 0.08
No flooring
No water inside
No mains
Thatch/plastic roof 4 or 5 star hotels
Wifi/fibre
Generator
Swimming pool
Items from various sources:
LSM 2014
PA SES (TNS Pan African Socio-Economic
Segmentation)
IWI (International Wealth Index)
Other key HH variables in ES
questionnaire
REMOVAL OF VARIABLES RESULTED IN AN EVEN STRONGER MEASURE…
-0.300
-0.200
-0.100
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
-0.800 -0.600 -0.400 -0.200 0.000 0.200 0.400 0.600 0.800 1.000 1.200
Dim
en
sio
n 2
(5
.7%
var
ian
ce e
xpla
ine
d)
Dimension 1 (78.1% variance explained)
Removal of:
Spurious variables
Non-differentiating durables
Overlapping variables at top end
Low socio-economic living
xx
x
No flooring
Highsocio-economic living
Home security service
Free standing freezer
Vacuum cleaner
No police station
No post office
THE 14 ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY SEM™ VARIABLES…
• Focus on structural items
• Low reliance on durables
• No reliance on technology items
• Short and easy to use
Final variables:
Post Office nearby
Police station nearby
Built-in kitchen sink
Home security service
Motor car
Deep freezer which is free standing
Microwave oven
Floor polisher or vacuum cleaner
Washing machine
Floor material
Water source
Type of toilet
Roof material
Number of sleeping rooms
“nearby” is self-defined
ES SEMs VS ES LSMs…
1317
1410 10 8 9 7 5 7
SEM 1 SEM 2 SEM 3 SEM 4 SEM 5 SEM 6 SEM 7 SEM 8 SEM 9 SEM 10
SEM:
LSM:
02
4
14
22
34
11
5 63
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3 LSM 4 LSM 5 LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8 LSM 9 LSM 10
THE SEM CONTINUUM…0 2 4 6 8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
SEM 10 Score
91-100
SEM 9 Score 81-90
SEM 8 Score 71-80
SEM 7 Score 61-70
SEM 6 Score 51-60
SEM 5 Score 41-50
SEM 4 Score 31-40
SEM 3 Score 21-30
SEM 2 Score 11-20
SEM 1 Score 0-10
Low socio-economic living High socio-economic living
Currently divided into ten groups, but users have the flexibility to spread the scores in any way they wish
For example: 0-40; 41-95; 96-100
SEM TARGETING EXAMPLE…
• Suppose you wanted to advertise petrol, motor spares or used cars…
• The more precisely one defines the TM, the less the wastage and the better the ROI.
TOTAL SEM1 SEM2 SEM3 SEM4 SEM5 SEM6 SEM7 SEM8 SEM9 SEM10
%Col 26 0 1 4 7 11 20 43 84 95 100
Index 100 0 5 14 27 42 77 164 321 360 380
National average of 26% falls between
SEM 6 and 7
Lower SEM 6
(score 51-56)
Car penetration below average of 26% (<100 index)
Upper SEM 6
(score 57-60)
Car penetration above average of 26% (>100 index)
Advertising to SEM 7-10 means you miss out on the
top end of SEM 6 – over 1.5m people!
TARGET MARKET IS SEM >=57
Penetration of Car in home:
SEM INPUT VARIABLES…
Low incidence (%)
High incidence (%)
• STRUCTURAL
SEM1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Finished/ sealed floor
4 26 41 51 66 82 89 93 94 98
3+ Sleeping rooms 27 30 39 35 27 43 58 73 85 93
Home security service
0 0 0 1 1 3 8 18 53 89
Note: HH weights
SEM INPUT VARIABLES…• DURABLES
SEM1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Washing machine 0 2 14 36 56 72 88 98 99 100
Motor car 0 1 4 7 11 20 43 84 95 100
Microwave 5 32 68 84 92 96 99 99 100 100
Low incidence (%)
High incidence (%)
Note: HH weights
SEM INPUT VARIABLES…
• INFRASTRUCTURE AND BASIC AMENITIES
Low incidence (%)
High incidence (%)
SEM1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
NO Police Station nearby
94 57 48 34 28 23 17 12 10 1
NO Post Office nearby
97 67 55 38 35 30 21 13 12 2
NO Built-in kitchen sink
100 95 77 55 20 7 3 1 0 0
NO Flush toilet inside the house
100 96 82 59 29 13 3 1 1 0
Note: HH weights
DEMOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE BY SEM…
SEM1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Metro 13 19 22 40 53 62 65 63 69 68
Urban 13 21 33 38 35 31 30 34 29 32
Rural 73 60 45 22 12 7 5 3 2 0
EQUIPMENT IN HOME BY SEM…
19
74
56
1
26
72
98
15
Avg. no. of equipment items in home: 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 4.2
Key equipment penetration:
1317 14
10 10 8 9 7 5 7
SEM 1 SEM 2 SEM 3 SEM 4 SEM 5 SEM 6 SEM 7 SEM 8 SEM 9 SEM 10
TV set
Smartphone
Desktop/ laptop
Tablet
Wifi/fibre
MEDIA CONSUMPTION BY SEM…
23 5
8 9
1518
23
30
39
2429
3641 42
45 47 48 5055
1317
2326 25
3128 30
3644
88
95 97 98 98 99 99 98 98 99
89 91 9390
87 8986
8992
94
30
38
4448
52
64 63
71
77
86
1317 14
10 10 8 9 7 5 7
SEM 1 SEM 2 SEM 3 SEM 4 SEM 5 SEM 6 SEM 7 SEM 8 SEM 9 SEM 10
Past 12 month usage:
ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY SEM™DESCRIPTORS…
SEM 1 - DEMOGRAPHICS
SEM 2 DEMOGRAPHICS
SEM 3 - DEMOGRAPHICS
SEM 4 - DEMOGRAPHICS
SEM 5 - DEMOGRAPHICS
SEM 6 - DEMOGRAPHICS
SEM 7 - DEMOGRAPHICS
SEM 8 - DEMOGRAPGICS
SEM 9 - DEMOGRAPHICS
SEM 10 - DEMOGRAPHICS
SEM INTEGRATION…
ES
TAMS
RAM
SEMs will be available in the TAM data BY OCTOBER 2017
SEMs will be available in the RAM data in the
November 2017 release
THE BEGINNING OF A BRAND NEW “SOCIAL ORDER” IN OUR AUDIENCE MEASUREMENT SYSTEMS…
www.brcsa.org.za
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