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The LTE, LTE-Advanced & 5G Ecosystem: 2014 – 2020
Infrastructure, Devices, Subscriptions & Operator Revenue
The LTE, LTE-Advanced & 5G Ecosystem: 2014 – 2020 Infrastructure, Devices, Subscriptions & Operator Revenue
© 2014 SNS Research
.. Revision Date: 27 January 2014
Page 2
Table of Contents
1 Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................... 23
1.1 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 23
1.2 Topics Covered .............................................................................................................................................. 25
1.3 Historical Revenue & Forecast Segmentation ............................................................................................... 26
1.4 Key Questions Answered ............................................................................................................................... 28
1.5 Key Findings ................................................................................................................................................... 29
1.6 Methodology ................................................................................................................................................. 30
1.7 Target Audience ............................................................................................................................................ 31
1.8 Companies & Organizations Mentioned ....................................................................................................... 32
2 Chapter 2: LTE and LTE-Advanced Ecosystem ................................................... 37
2.1 Mobile Broadband Growth ........................................................................................................................... 37
2.1.1 LTE: Adding Mobility to Broadband Applications .............................................................................. 37
2.1.2 Flexibility of LTE Spectrum & Infrastructure Deployments ............................................................... 38
2.2 An Overview of LTE & LTE-Advanced ............................................................................................................ 39
2.2.1 LTE: An Established Market ............................................................................................................... 39
2.3 What are 4G Technology Features & Services? ............................................................................................ 39
2.3.1 LTE Performance Metrics .................................................................................................................. 40
2.3.2 LTE Features ...................................................................................................................................... 41
2.3.3 LTE Services ....................................................................................................................................... 41
2.3.4 Motivation for LTE-A ......................................................................................................................... 42
2.4 What is LTE-A? ............................................................................................................................................... 43
2.4.1 Carrier Aggregation ........................................................................................................................... 43
2.4.2 Optimizing Small Cell Performance ................................................................................................... 43
2.4.3 eICIC ................................................................................................................................................... 43
2.4.4 Higher Order MIMO .......................................................................................................................... 44
2.4.5 CoMP ................................................................................................................................................. 44
2.4.6 Unlicensed Spectrum......................................................................................................................... 44
2.5 LTE Architecture ............................................................................................................................................ 45
2.5.1 UE: User Equipment .......................................................................................................................... 46
The LTE, LTE-Advanced & 5G Ecosystem: 2014 – 2020 Infrastructure, Devices, Subscriptions & Operator Revenue
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.. Revision Date: 27 January 2014
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2.5.2 E-UTRAN: The Access Network .......................................................................................................... 47
2.5.3 The Concept of Home eNB (HeNB) .................................................................................................... 48
2.5.4 EPC: The Mobile Core ........................................................................................................................ 49
2.5.5 Functional Split between E-UTRAN and the EPC ............................................................................... 51
2.6 Challenges & Inhibiters to 4G ........................................................................................................................ 52
2.6.1 Time to Market .................................................................................................................................. 52
2.6.2 Operator CapEx ................................................................................................................................. 52
2.6.3 Spectrum Requirement ..................................................................................................................... 52
2.6.4 Reduce Initial Investment .................................................................................................................. 53
2.6.5 Interoperability with Legacy Networks ............................................................................................. 53
2.6.6 Voice and SMS Support ..................................................................................................................... 54
2.6.7 Need for Customizable Building Blocks ............................................................................................. 54
2.6.8 Common Solution for Different Subscriber Usage Needs ................................................................. 54
2.6.9 Investment Returns ........................................................................................................................... 55
2.6.10 Backhaul Capacity .............................................................................................................................. 55
2.7 4G Market Drivers ......................................................................................................................................... 56
2.7.1 Competitive Operator Landscape ...................................................................................................... 56
2.7.2 Growing Traffic Capacity Demands ................................................................................................... 56
2.7.3 LTE Value Proposition: Network Performance and Cost Savings ...................................................... 57
2.7.4 Application Ecosystem ...................................................................................................................... 58
2.7.5 Seamless Interoperability with Legacy Networks .............................................................................. 59
2.7.6 Access Network Transparency with HetNets .................................................................................... 61
2.7.7 End-to-End QoS ................................................................................................................................. 61
2.7.8 Spectrum Efficiency ........................................................................................................................... 61
2.7.9 Global Standard for Global Roaming ................................................................................................. 62
2.7.10 3GPP: Driving Economies of Scale ..................................................................................................... 62
2.7.11 Enabling Cheaper Mobile Broadband Connectivity ........................................................................... 63
3 Chapter 3: The 5G Ecosystem ........................................................................... 64
3.1 What is 5G? ................................................................................................................................................... 64
3.1.1 Key Concepts of 5G Technology ........................................................................................................ 64
3.1.2 Key Features of 5G Technology ......................................................................................................... 65
The LTE, LTE-Advanced & 5G Ecosystem: 2014 – 2020 Infrastructure, Devices, Subscriptions & Operator Revenue
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.. Revision Date: 27 January 2014
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3.2 5G Architecture ............................................................................................................................................. 67
3.2.1 Ubiquitous Computing ...................................................................................................................... 67
3.2.2 Core Aggregation & Flatter IP Concept ............................................................................................. 67
3.3 Challenges & Inhibitors to 5G ........................................................................................................................ 70
3.3.1 Skepticism.......................................................................................................................................... 70
3.3.2 Spectrum Complexities ...................................................................................................................... 70
3.3.3 Integration of Various Standards....................................................................................................... 71
3.3.4 Common Platform ............................................................................................................................. 71
3.3.5 High Redundancy Requirement ......................................................................................................... 71
3.3.6 Transparency among Network Operators ......................................................................................... 71
3.3.7 Reliability of Higher Frequency Bands ............................................................................................... 72
3.3.8 Backhaul ............................................................................................................................................ 72
3.4 5G Performance ............................................................................................................................................ 73
3.4.1 What are the relevant KPIs and Functional Requirements for 5G? .................................................. 73
3.4.2 Round Trip Time (RTT) ....................................................................................................................... 73
3.4.3 Spectrum Availability ......................................................................................................................... 74
3.4.4 Spectrum Efficiency ........................................................................................................................... 74
3.4.5 Inbuilt Support of Self-Backhauling and Direct Device-to-Device ..................................................... 75
3.4.6 Low Power Consumption .................................................................................................................. 75
3.4.7 Ultra Low Cost per Access Node ........................................................................................................ 75
3.5 5G Market Drivers ......................................................................................................................................... 77
3.5.1 Is LTE not the Answer to User Demands? ......................................................................................... 77
3.5.2 Why the Need for a 5G Standard? .................................................................................................... 77
3.5.3 Key Drivers for Growing Data Traffic ................................................................................................. 78
3.6 4G & 5G Applications and Content Services.................................................................................................. 79
3.6.1 Enabling Workforce Mobility, Cloud Computing and ICT Consumerization ...................................... 79
3.6.2 Benefits of Mobility Applications ...................................................................................................... 80
3.6.3 4G & 5: Enabling True Mobility of Applications ................................................................................ 81
3.6.4 The Five Key Characteristics of Mobile Broadband ........................................................................... 81
3.6.5 Benefits of 4G & 5G Over 3G and Wi-Fi ............................................................................................. 83
3.6.6 Vertical Applications of 4G & 5G ....................................................................................................... 84
3.7 Technical Integration Aspects of 5G .............................................................................................................. 85
The LTE, LTE-Advanced & 5G Ecosystem: 2014 – 2020 Infrastructure, Devices, Subscriptions & Operator Revenue
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.. Revision Date: 27 January 2014
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3.7.1 5G System Model .............................................................................................................................. 85
3.7.2 RAN Integration ................................................................................................................................. 86
3.7.3 Application Connections .................................................................................................................... 87
3.7.4 Routing .............................................................................................................................................. 87
3.7.5 Transparency & Control .................................................................................................................... 88
3.7.6 Network Abstraction Layer ................................................................................................................ 89
3.8 5G Standardization and Research Initiatives ................................................................................................. 90
3.8.1 METIS ................................................................................................................................................. 90
3.8.2 5GPP .................................................................................................................................................. 91
3.8.3 Korea’s 5G Forum .............................................................................................................................. 91
3.8.4 Japan’s ARIB 2020 and Beyond AdHoc .............................................................................................. 92
3.8.5 China’s IMT 2020 ............................................................................................................................... 92
3.9 How much is being Invested in 5G R&D? ...................................................................................................... 93
3.10 5G Requirements ....................................................................................................................................... 94
3.11 Vertical Industries to Play a Key Role ......................................................................................................... 94
3.12 SDN Capabilities Considered Inherit for 5G ............................................................................................... 95
3.13 Spectrum Aggregation is a Necessity ......................................................................................................... 95
3.14 Authorized Shared Access (ASA) ................................................................................................................ 95
3.15 Will 5G be a New Air Interface? ................................................................................................................. 96
3.16 5G Demonstrations .................................................................................................................................... 96
3.16.1 Samsung ............................................................................................................................................ 96
3.16.2 NSN .................................................................................................................................................... 96
3.16.3 Huawei ............................................................................................................................................... 97
4 Chapter 4: 4G & 5G Operator Deployment Models .......................................... 98
4.1 LTE/EPC Deployment for an Existing 3GPP Operator .................................................................................... 98
4.1.1 Devices .............................................................................................................................................. 99
4.1.2 How to Introduce EPC into the Equation? ......................................................................................... 99
4.1.3 Replacing the Existing Core ............................................................................................................. 100
4.1.4 Upgrading Subscriptions .................................................................................................................. 102
4.1.5 Maintenance of Legacy and LTE Infrastructure ............................................................................... 102
4.2 LTE/EPC for a Greenfield Operator.............................................................................................................. 103
The LTE, LTE-Advanced & 5G Ecosystem: 2014 – 2020 Infrastructure, Devices, Subscriptions & Operator Revenue
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.. Revision Date: 27 January 2014
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4.2.1 Roaming Capacity Planning ............................................................................................................. 103
4.2.2 Initially Spotty Coverage .................................................................................................................. 103
4.2.3 Starting Point Requirements ........................................................................................................... 103
4.2.4 GRX Requirements and Resource Allocation ................................................................................... 104
5 Chapter 5: LTE/LTE-A Vertical Markets ........................................................... 106
5.1 Capitalizing on LTE and LTE-A ...................................................................................................................... 106
5.2 Vertical Market Case Studies....................................................................................................................... 107
5.2.1 Construction Industry ...................................................................................................................... 107
5.2.2 Healthcare ....................................................................................................................................... 107
5.2.3 Retail ................................................................................................................................................ 108
5.2.4 Automotive and Transport .............................................................................................................. 108
5.2.5 Professional Services ....................................................................................................................... 108
5.2.6 Public Safety & Emergency Services ................................................................................................ 109
5.2.7 Defense ............................................................................................................................................ 110
5.2.8 Energy & Utilities ............................................................................................................................. 110
6 Chapter 6: LTE/LTE-A Requirements in Core & Backhaul ................................ 112
6.1 Core Requirements for LTE & LTE-A ............................................................................................................ 112
6.1.1 End of Circuit-Switched Voice ......................................................................................................... 113
6.1.2 Evolved Wireless Broadband ........................................................................................................... 113
6.1.3 Mobility as part of the Core ............................................................................................................ 114
6.1.4 End-to-End QoS Becomes Essential ................................................................................................. 114
6.1.5 Policy Management and Enforcement ............................................................................................ 114
6.1.6 Change in Product Architecture ...................................................................................................... 115
6.2 Backhaul Requirements for LTE & LTE-A ..................................................................................................... 116
6.2.1 User Device Speeds ......................................................................................................................... 117
6.2.2 LTE Cell Site Backhaul Requirements .............................................................................................. 118
6.2.3 Improving LTE Throughput & Service Quality ................................................................................. 120
6.2.4 Topologies for LTE Backhaul ............................................................................................................ 121
6.2.5 Daisy Chains ..................................................................................................................................... 121
6.2.6 Hub and Spoke ................................................................................................................................ 121
6.2.7 TREE/TIERED Networks ................................................................................................................... 122
The LTE, LTE-Advanced & 5G Ecosystem: 2014 – 2020 Infrastructure, Devices, Subscriptions & Operator Revenue
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.. Revision Date: 27 January 2014
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6.2.8 MESH and RING Networks ............................................................................................................... 122
6.2.9 Backhaul Network Dimensioning .................................................................................................... 123
6.2.10 Example Dimensioning: Ring Topology ........................................................................................... 124
6.2.11 Network Dimensioning Guidelines .................................................................................................. 124
6.2.12 Traffic Asymmetry ........................................................................................................................... 125
7 Chapter 7: Industry Roadmap & Value Chain ................................................. 126
7.1 Industry Roadmap ....................................................................................................................................... 126
7.1.1 Initial LTE FDD Rollouts: 2010 - 2011 ............................................................................................... 126
7.1.2 Rise of the HetNet Ecosystem: 2012 - 2013 .................................................................................... 127
7.1.3 A Wave of TD-LTE Deployments: 2014 - 2016 ................................................................................. 127
7.1.4 Moving Towards “Software Centric” Networking: 2017 - 2019 ...................................................... 128
7.1.5 Start of the 5G Era: 2020 & Beyond ................................................................................................ 128
7.2 Value Chain .................................................................................................................................................. 129
7.3 Embedded Technology Ecosystem ........................................................................................................... 129
7.3.1 Chipset Developers .......................................................................................................................... 129
7.3.2 Embedded Component/Software Providers ................................................................................... 129
7.4 RAN Ecosystem ........................................................................................................................................ 132
7.4.1 Macrocell RAN OEMs....................................................................................................................... 132
7.4.2 ‘Pure-Play’ and Specialist Small Cell OEMs ...................................................................................... 133
7.4.3 WiFi Access Point OEMs .................................................................................................................. 134
7.4.4 DAS & Repeater Solution Providers ................................................................................................. 135
7.4.5 Cloud RAN Solution Providers ......................................................................................................... 136
7.4.6 Other Technology & Network Component Providers/Enablers ...................................................... 137
7.5 Mobile Backhaul Ecosystem ..................................................................................................................... 138
7.5.1 Backhaul Solution Providers ............................................................................................................ 138
7.6 Mobile Core Ecosystem ............................................................................................................................ 139
7.6.1 Core Network Infrastructure & Software Providers ........................................................................ 139
7.7 Connectivity Ecosystem ........................................................................................................................... 140
7.7.1 2G, 3G & 4G Wireless Carriers ......................................................................................................... 140
7.7.2 WiFi Connectivity Providers ............................................................................................................ 142
7.7.3 Small Cells as a Service (SCaaS) Providers ....................................................................................... 142
The LTE, LTE-Advanced & 5G Ecosystem: 2014 – 2020 Infrastructure, Devices, Subscriptions & Operator Revenue
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.. Revision Date: 27 January 2014
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7.8 SON Ecosystem ........................................................................................................................................ 143
7.8.1 SON Solution Providers ................................................................................................................... 143
7.9 SDN & NFV Ecosystem.............................................................................................................................. 144
7.9.1 SDN & NFV Providers ....................................................................................................................... 144
8 Chapter 8: Vendor & Operator Landscape ...................................................... 145
8.1 LTE Infrastructure ........................................................................................................................................ 145
8.1.1 Alcatel-Lucent .................................................................................................................................. 145
8.1.2 Cisco ................................................................................................................................................ 146
8.1.3 Datang Mobile ................................................................................................................................. 147
8.1.4 Ericsson ............................................................................................................................................ 147
8.1.5 Fujitsu .............................................................................................................................................. 149
8.1.6 Huawei ............................................................................................................................................. 149
8.1.7 New Postcom Equipment ................................................................................................................ 150
8.1.8 NEC .................................................................................................................................................. 151
8.1.9 Nokia Solutions & Networks (NSN) ................................................................................................. 151
8.1.10 Samsung .......................................................................................................................................... 152
8.1.11 ZTE ................................................................................................................................................... 153
8.2 LTE Devices .................................................................................................................................................. 154
8.2.1 Apple ............................................................................................................................................... 154
8.2.2 BlackBerry ........................................................................................................................................ 155
8.2.3 Fujitsu (Formerly Fujitsu-Toshiba) ................................................................................................... 155
8.2.4 HTC .................................................................................................................................................. 155
8.2.5 Huawei ............................................................................................................................................. 156
8.2.6 Kyocera ............................................................................................................................................ 156
8.2.7 LG ..................................................................................................................................................... 156
8.2.8 Motorola Mobility ........................................................................................................................... 157
8.2.9 NEC Casio Mobile Communications ................................................................................................ 157
8.2.10 Nokia ............................................................................................................................................... 158
8.2.11 Panasonic......................................................................................................................................... 158
8.2.12 Pantech ............................................................................................................................................ 159
8.2.13 Samsung .......................................................................................................................................... 159
The LTE, LTE-Advanced & 5G Ecosystem: 2014 – 2020 Infrastructure, Devices, Subscriptions & Operator Revenue
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.. Revision Date: 27 January 2014
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8.2.14 Sharp ............................................................................................................................................... 159
8.2.15 Sony Mobile ..................................................................................................................................... 160
8.2.16 ZTE ................................................................................................................................................... 160
8.3 LTE Operators .............................................................................................................................................. 161
8.3.1 AT&T Mobility .................................................................................................................................. 161
8.3.2 China Mobile ................................................................................................................................... 161
8.3.3 EE ..................................................................................................................................................... 162
8.3.4 KDDI ................................................................................................................................................. 163
8.3.5 KT ..................................................................................................................................................... 163
8.3.6 LG Uplus........................................................................................................................................... 164
8.3.7 NTT DoCoMo ................................................................................................................................... 165
8.3.8 SK Telecom ...................................................................................................................................... 166
8.3.9 SoftBank .......................................................................................................................................... 167
8.3.10 Verizon Wireless .............................................................................................................................. 168
9 Chapter 9: Market Analysis & Forecasts ......................................................... 170
9.1 LTE Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ................................................................................................... 170
9.1.1 TDD vs. FDD RAN Segmentation ...................................................................................................... 171
9.1.2 Macrocell vs. Small Cell RAN Submarket Segmentation ................................................................. 172
9.1.3 Regional Segmentation ................................................................................................................... 173
9.2 LTE RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ........................................................................................... 174
9.2.1 LTE Macrocell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ............................................................... 174
9.2.2 LTE Small Cell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ............................................................... 175
9.3 EPC Infrastructure Revenue ........................................................................................................................ 176
9.4 TD-LTE RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ...................................................................................... 177
9.4.1 Macrocell vs. Small Cell RAN Submarket Segmentation ................................................................. 177
9.4.2 TD-LTE Macrocell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ......................................................... 178
9.4.3 TD-LTE Small Cell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue .......................................................... 179
9.5 LTE FDD RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue .................................................................................... 180
9.5.1 Macrocell vs. Small Cell RAN Submarket Segmentation ................................................................. 180
9.5.2 LTE FDD Macrocell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ....................................................... 181
9.5.3 LTE FDD Small Cell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ........................................................ 182
The LTE, LTE-Advanced & 5G Ecosystem: 2014 – 2020 Infrastructure, Devices, Subscriptions & Operator Revenue
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.. Revision Date: 27 January 2014
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9.6 LTE Device Shipments & Revenue ............................................................................................................... 183
9.6.1 TDD vs. FDD Segmentation .............................................................................................................. 183
9.6.2 Regional Segmentation ................................................................................................................... 184
9.6.3 Segmentation by Form Factor ......................................................................................................... 185
9.6.4 Embedded Cards ............................................................................................................................. 186
9.6.5 Consumer Gadgets .......................................................................................................................... 187
9.6.6 Netbooks ......................................................................................................................................... 188
9.6.7 PCs ................................................................................................................................................... 189
9.6.8 Routers ............................................................................................................................................ 190
9.6.9 Smartphones ................................................................................................................................... 191
9.6.10 Tablets ............................................................................................................................................. 192
9.6.11 USB Dongles .................................................................................................................................... 193
9.7 TD-LTE Device Shipments & Revenue ......................................................................................................... 194
9.7.1 Regional Segmentation ................................................................................................................... 194
9.7.2 Segmentation by Form Factor ......................................................................................................... 195
9.8 LTE FDD Device Shipments & Revenue ....................................................................................................... 196
9.8.1 Regional Segmentation ................................................................................................................... 196
9.8.2 Segmentation by Form Factor ......................................................................................................... 197
9.9 LTE Subscriptions & Service Revenue .......................................................................................................... 198
9.9.1 TDD vs. FDD Segmentation .............................................................................................................. 198
9.9.2 Regional Segmentation ................................................................................................................... 200
9.9.3 Top 20 Countries ............................................................................................................................. 202
9.9.3.1 China ........................................................................................................................................................... 205
9.9.3.2 USA.............................................................................................................................................................. 207
9.9.3.3 Japan ........................................................................................................................................................... 209
9.9.3.4 India ............................................................................................................................................................ 211
9.9.3.5 Korea ........................................................................................................................................................... 213
9.9.3.6 Germany ..................................................................................................................................................... 215
9.9.3.7 UK ................................................................................................................................................................ 217
9.9.3.8 Indonesia ..................................................................................................................................................... 219
9.9.3.9 Brazil ........................................................................................................................................................... 221
9.9.3.10 Italy ........................................................................................................................................................ 223
9.9.3.11 Russia ..................................................................................................................................................... 225
The LTE, LTE-Advanced & 5G Ecosystem: 2014 – 2020 Infrastructure, Devices, Subscriptions & Operator Revenue
© 2014 SNS Research
.. Revision Date: 27 January 2014
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9.9.3.12 Spain ....................................................................................................................................................... 227
9.9.3.13 Saudi Arabia ........................................................................................................................................... 229
9.9.3.14 Mexico .................................................................................................................................................... 231
9.9.3.15 France ..................................................................................................................................................... 233
9.9.3.16 Poland .................................................................................................................................................... 235
9.9.3.17 Malaysia ................................................................................................................................................. 237
9.9.3.18 Australia ................................................................................................................................................. 239
9.9.3.19 Philippines .............................................................................................................................................. 241
9.9.3.20 Canada ................................................................................................................................................... 243
9.10 TD-LTE Subscriptions & Service Revenue ................................................................................................. 245
9.10.1 TD-LTE Subscriptions ....................................................................................................................... 245
9.10.2 TD-LTE Service Revenue .................................................................................................................. 245
9.10.3 TD-LTE ARPU .................................................................................................................................... 246
9.11 LTE FDD Subscriptions & Service Revenue ............................................................................................... 247
9.11.1 LTE FDD Subscriptions ..................................................................................................................... 247
9.11.2 LTE FDD Service Revenue ................................................................................................................ 247
9.11.3 LTE FDD ARPU .................................................................................................................................. 248
9.12 Asia Pacific ................................................................................................................................................ 249
9.12.1 LTE Infrastructure Revenue ............................................................................................................. 249
9.12.2 EPC Infrastructure Revenue ............................................................................................................ 249
9.12.3 LTE Macrocell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ............................................................... 250
9.12.4 LTE Small Cell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ............................................................... 251
9.12.5 TD-LTE Macrocell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ......................................................... 252
9.12.6 TD-LTE Small Cell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue .......................................................... 253
9.12.7 LTE FDD Macrocell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ....................................................... 254
9.12.8 LTE FDD Small Cell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ........................................................ 255
9.12.9 LTE Device Shipments & Revenue ................................................................................................... 256
9.12.10 TD-LTE Device Shipments & Revenue ............................................................................................. 257
9.12.11 LTE FDD Device Shipments & Revenue ........................................................................................... 258
9.12.12 LTE Subscriptions ............................................................................................................................. 259
9.12.13 LTE Service Revenue ........................................................................................................................ 259
9.12.14 LTE ARPU ......................................................................................................................................... 260
9.13 Eastern Europe ......................................................................................................................................... 261
The LTE, LTE-Advanced & 5G Ecosystem: 2014 – 2020 Infrastructure, Devices, Subscriptions & Operator Revenue
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.. Revision Date: 27 January 2014
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9.13.1 LTE Infrastructure Revenue ............................................................................................................. 261
9.13.2 EPC Infrastructure Revenue ............................................................................................................ 261
9.13.3 LTE Macrocell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ............................................................... 262
9.13.4 LTE Small Cell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ............................................................... 263
9.13.5 TD-LTE Macrocell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ......................................................... 264
9.13.6 TD-LTE Small Cell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue .......................................................... 265
9.13.7 LTE FDD Macrocell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ....................................................... 266
9.13.8 LTE FDD Small Cell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ........................................................ 267
9.13.9 LTE Device Shipments & Revenue ................................................................................................... 268
9.13.10 TD-LTE Device Shipments & Revenue ............................................................................................. 269
9.13.11 LTE FDD Device Shipments & Revenue ........................................................................................... 270
9.13.12 LTE Subscriptions ............................................................................................................................. 271
9.13.13 LTE Service Revenue ........................................................................................................................ 271
9.13.14 LTE ARPU ......................................................................................................................................... 272
9.14 Latin & Central America ........................................................................................................................... 273
9.14.1 LTE Infrastructure Revenue ............................................................................................................. 273
9.14.2 EPC Infrastructure Revenue ............................................................................................................ 273
9.14.3 LTE Macrocell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ............................................................... 274
9.14.4 LTE Small Cell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ............................................................... 275
9.14.5 TD-LTE Macrocell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ......................................................... 276
9.14.6 TD-LTE Small Cell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue .......................................................... 277
9.14.7 LTE FDD Macrocell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ....................................................... 278
9.14.8 LTE FDD Small Cell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ........................................................ 279
9.14.9 LTE Device Shipments & Revenue ................................................................................................... 280
9.14.10 TD-LTE Device Shipments & Revenue ............................................................................................. 281
9.14.11 LTE FDD Device Shipments & Revenue ........................................................................................... 282
9.14.12 LTE Subscriptions ............................................................................................................................. 283
9.14.13 LTE Service Revenue ........................................................................................................................ 283
9.14.14 LTE ARPU ......................................................................................................................................... 284
9.15 Middle East & Africa ................................................................................................................................. 285
9.15.1 LTE Infrastructure Revenue ............................................................................................................. 285
9.15.2 EPC Infrastructure Revenue ............................................................................................................ 285
The LTE, LTE-Advanced & 5G Ecosystem: 2014 – 2020 Infrastructure, Devices, Subscriptions & Operator Revenue
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.. Revision Date: 27 January 2014
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9.15.3 LTE Macrocell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ............................................................... 286
9.15.4 LTE Small Cell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ............................................................... 287
9.15.5 TD-LTE Macrocell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ......................................................... 288
9.15.6 TD-LTE Small Cell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue .......................................................... 289
9.15.7 LTE FDD Macrocell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ....................................................... 290
9.15.8 LTE FDD Small Cell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ........................................................ 291
9.15.9 LTE Device Shipments & Revenue ................................................................................................... 292
9.15.10 TD-LTE Device Shipments & Revenue ............................................................................................. 293
9.15.11 LTE FDD Device Shipments & Revenue ........................................................................................... 294
9.15.12 LTE Subscriptions ............................................................................................................................. 295
9.15.13 LTE Service Revenue ........................................................................................................................ 295
9.15.14 LTE ARPU ......................................................................................................................................... 296
9.16 North America .......................................................................................................................................... 297
9.16.1 LTE Infrastructure Revenue ............................................................................................................. 297
9.16.2 EPC Infrastructure Revenue ............................................................................................................ 297
9.16.3 LTE Macrocell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ............................................................... 298
9.16.4 LTE Small Cell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ............................................................... 299
9.16.5 TD-LTE Macrocell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ......................................................... 300
9.16.6 TD-LTE Small Cell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue .......................................................... 301
9.16.7 LTE FDD Macrocell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ....................................................... 302
9.16.8 LTE FDD Small Cell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ........................................................ 303
9.16.9 LTE Device Shipments & Revenue ................................................................................................... 304
9.16.10 TD-LTE Device Shipments & Revenue ............................................................................................. 305
9.16.11 LTE FDD Device Shipments & Revenue ........................................................................................... 306
9.16.12 LTE Subscriptions ............................................................................................................................. 307
9.16.13 LTE Service Revenue ........................................................................................................................ 307
9.16.14 LTE ARPU ......................................................................................................................................... 308
9.17 Western Europe ....................................................................................................................................... 309
9.17.1 LTE Infrastructure Revenue ............................................................................................................. 309
9.17.2 EPC Infrastructure Revenue ............................................................................................................ 309
9.17.3 LTE Macrocell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ............................................................... 310
9.17.4 LTE Small Cell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ............................................................... 311
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.. Revision Date: 27 January 2014
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9.17.5 TD-LTE Macrocell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ......................................................... 312
9.17.6 TD-LTE Small Cell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue .......................................................... 313
9.17.7 LTE FDD Macrocell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ....................................................... 314
9.17.8 LTE FDD Small Cell RAN Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue ........................................................ 315
9.17.9 LTE Device Shipments & Revenue ................................................................................................... 316
9.17.10 TD-LTE Device Shipments & Revenue ............................................................................................. 317
9.17.11 LTE FDD Device Shipments & Revenue ........................................................................................... 318
9.17.12 LTE Subscriptions ............................................................................................................................. 319
9.17.13 LTE Service Revenue ........................................................................................................................ 319
9.17.14 LTE ARPU ......................................................................................................................................... 320
10 Chapter 10: LTE Infrastructure, Device & Subscriptions Summary .................. 321
10.1 Infrastructure ........................................................................................................................................... 321
10.1.1 Commercial Device Availability ....................................................................................................... 321
10.1.2 RAN Vendor Share: Who Leads the Market? .................................................................................. 321
10.1.3 The Outlook for Tier 2 Vendors ....................................................................................................... 322
10.1.4 EPC Vendor Share ............................................................................................................................ 323
10.2 Devices ..................................................................................................................................................... 323
10.2.1 Commercial Device Availability ....................................................................................................... 323
10.2.2 Are Smartphones the Most Dominant Form Factor? ...................................................................... 323
10.2.3 Vendor Share: Who Leads the Market? .......................................................................................... 324
10.2.4 What About Chipsets? ..................................................................................................................... 324
10.3 Subscriptions & Operator Services ........................................................................................................... 324
10.3.1 Economic Downturn: Deployment Delays ....................................................................................... 324
10.3.2 Commercial Availability ................................................................................................................... 325
10.3.3 How Big is the LTE Service Revenue Opportunity?.......................................................................... 325
10.3.4 Outlook for LTE-A ............................................................................................................................ 326
10.3.5 Outlook for LTE Broadcast (eMBMS) ............................................................................................... 326
10.3.6 Outlook for VoLTE ........................................................................................................................... 327
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List of Figures
Figure 1: LTE Architecture ............................................................................................................................................................... 45
Figure 2: E-UTRAN Architecture ...................................................................................................................................................... 47
Figure 3: EPC Architecture .............................................................................................................................................................. 49
Figure 4: Functional Split between E-UTRAN and the EPC .............................................................................................................. 51
Figure 5: LTE Value Proposition ...................................................................................................................................................... 58
Figure 6: Seamless Roaming in EPC & IMS ...................................................................................................................................... 60
Figure 7: Aggregated Core in the 5G Era ......................................................................................................................................... 69
Figure 8: Benefits of 4G & 5G over 3G and Wi-Fi ............................................................................................................................ 83
Figure 9: 5G: Multi-RAN Integration ............................................................................................................................................... 86
Figure 10: METIS Members ............................................................................................................................................................. 90
Figure 11: Global Investments in 5G R&D: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ................................................................................................ 93
Figure 12: METIS 5G Requirements ................................................................................................................................................ 94
Figure 13: Vertical Markets for LTE and LTE-A .............................................................................................................................. 106
Figure 24: Global Private Public Safety LTE Infrastructure Spending: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) .................................................. 109
Figure 15: User Device Peak Speeds in an LTE Network ............................................................................................................... 118
Figure 16: eNB Interfaces .............................................................................................................................................................. 119
Figure 17: Cell Backhaul Capacity vs. Deployment Area ............................................................................................................... 120
Figure 18: Ring Backhaul Network Topology ................................................................................................................................ 122
Figure 19: Backhaul Link Overbooking .......................................................................................................................................... 125
Figure 20: The Wireless Network Infrastructure Industry Roadmap: 2014 - 2020 ....................................................................... 126
Figure 21: The Wireless Network Infrastructure Value Chain ....................................................................................................... 130
Figure 22: Embedded Technology Ecosystem Players .................................................................................................................. 131
Figure 23: Macrocell RAN Ecosystem Players ............................................................................................................................... 132
Figure 24: Specialist Small Cell RAN Ecosystem Players ................................................................................................................ 133
Figure 25: Carrier WiFi Ecosystem Players .................................................................................................................................... 134
Figure 26: DAS & Repeater Ecosystem Players ............................................................................................................................. 135
Figure 27: Cloud RAN Ecosystem Players ...................................................................................................................................... 136
Figure 28: Mobile Backhaul Ecosystem Players ............................................................................................................................ 138
Figure 29: Mobile Core Ecosystem Players ................................................................................................................................... 139
Figure 30: List of LTE Trials & Deployments .................................................................................................................................. 141
Figure 31: SON Ecosystem Players ................................................................................................................................................ 143
Figure 32: SDN & NFV Ecosystem Players ..................................................................................................................................... 144
Figure 33: Global LTE Infrastructure Revenue by Submarket: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ................................................................ 170
Figure 34: Global LTE RAN Infrastructure Shipments by TDD/ FDD Technology: 2010 - 2020 (Thousands of Units) .................... 171
Figure 35: Global LTE RAN Infrastructure Revenue by TDD/ FDD Technology: 2010 - 2020 ($ Million) ....................................... 171
Figure 36: Global LTE RAN Infrastructure Shipments by Submarket: 2010 - 2020 (Thousands of Units) ..................................... 172
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Figure 37: Global LTE RAN Infrastructure Revenue by Submarket: 2010 - 2020 ($ Million) ......................................................... 172
Figure 38: LTE Infrastructure Revenue by Region: 2010 - 2020 ($ Million) ................................................................................... 173
Figure 39: LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipments by Region: 2010 – 2020 ................................................................ 174
Figure 40: LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipment Revenue by Region: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) .................................. 174
Figure 41: LTE Small Cell Unit Shipments by Region: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) ............................................................. 175
Figure 42: LTE Small Cell Unit Shipment Revenue by Region: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ................................................................. 175
Figure 43: LTE EPC Revenue by Region: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) .................................................................................................. 176
Figure 44: Global TD-LTE Unit Shipments by Submarket: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) ...................................................... 177
Figure 45: Global TD-LTE Unit Shipment Revenue by Submarket: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) .......................................................... 177
Figure 46: TD-LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipments by Region: 2010 – 2020 ........................................................... 178
Figure 47: TD-LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipment Revenue by Region: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ............................ 178
Figure 48: TD-LTE Small Cell Unit Shipments by Region: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) ........................................................ 179
Figure 49: TD-LTE Small Cell Unit Shipment Revenue by Region: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ........................................................... 179
Figure 50: Global LTE FDD Unit Shipments by Submarket: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) .................................................... 180
Figure 51: Global LTE FDD Unit Shipment Revenue by Submarket: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ........................................................ 180
Figure 52: LTE FDD Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipments by Region: 2010 – 2020 ......................................................... 181
Figure 53: LTE FDD Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipment Revenue by Region: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) .......................... 181
Figure 54: LTE FDD Small Cell Unit Shipments by Region: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) ...................................................... 182
Figure 55: LTE FDD Small Cell Unit Shipment Revenue by Region: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ......................................................... 182
Figure 56: Global LTE Device Unit Shipments by TDD/FDD Technology: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ..................................... 183
Figure 57: Global LTE Device Unit Shipment Revenue by TDD/FDD Technology: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ..................................... 183
Figure 58: LTE Device Unit Shipments by Region: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ....................................................................... 184
Figure 59: LTE Device Unit Shipment Revenue by Region: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ....................................................................... 184
Figure 60: Global LTE Device Unit Shipments by Form Factor: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) .................................................... 185
Figure 61: Global LTE Device Unit Shipment Revenue by Form Factor: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) .................................................... 185
Figure 62: LTE Embedded Card Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ......................................................................... 186
Figure 63: LTE Embedded Card Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ......................................................................... 186
Figure 64: LTE Consumer Gadget Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ...................................................................... 187
Figure 65: LTE Consumer Gadget Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ...................................................................... 187
Figure 66: LTE Netbook Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ..................................................................................... 188
Figure 67: LTE Netbook Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ..................................................................................... 188
Figure 68: LTE PC Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ............................................................................................... 189
Figure 69: LTE PC Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ............................................................................................... 189
Figure 70: LTE Router Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ........................................................................................ 190
Figure 71: LTE Router Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ........................................................................................ 190
Figure 72: LTE Smartphone Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ............................................................................... 191
Figure 73: LTE Smartphone Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ............................................................................... 191
Figure 74: LTE Tablet Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ......................................................................................... 192
Figure 75: LTE Tablet Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ......................................................................................... 192
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Figure 76: LTE USB Dongle Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ................................................................................ 193
Figure 77: LTE USB Dongle Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ................................................................................ 193
Figure 78: TD-LTE Device Unit Shipments by Region: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) .................................................................. 194
Figure 79: TD-LTE Device Unit Shipment Revenue by Region: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) .................................................................. 194
Figure 80: Global TD-LTE Device Unit Shipments by Form Factor: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) .............................................. 195
Figure 81: Global TD-LTE Device Unit Shipment Revenue by Form Factor: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) .............................................. 195
Figure 82: LTE FDD Device Unit Shipments by Region: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ................................................................ 196
Figure 83: LTE FDD Device Unit Shipment Revenue by Region: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ................................................................ 196
Figure 84: Global LTE FDD Device Unit Shipments by Form Factor: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ............................................ 197
Figure 85: Global LTE FDD Device Unit Shipment Revenue by Form Factor: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ............................................ 197
Figure 86: Global LTE Subscriptions by TDD/FDD Technology: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) ................................................................. 198
Figure 87: Global LTE Service Revenue by TDD/FDD Technology: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ............................................................ 198
Figure 88: Global LTE ARPU by TDD/FDD Technology: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) ...................................................................... 199
Figure 89: LTE Subscriptions by Region: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) .................................................................................................... 200
Figure 90: LTE Service Revenue by Region: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ............................................................................................... 200
Figure 91: LTE ARPU by Region: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) ......................................................................................................... 201
Figure 92: LTE Subscriptions in Top 20 Countries: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) .................................................................................... 202
Figure 93: LTE Service Revenue in Top 20 Countries: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ............................................................................... 203
Figure 94: LTE ARPU in Top 20 Countries: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) ......................................................................................... 204
Figure 95: LTE Subscriptions in China: 2010 - 2020 (Millions)....................................................................................................... 205
Figure 96: LTE Service Revenue in China: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ................................................................................................. 205
Figure 97: LTE ARPU in China: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month)............................................................................................................ 206
Figure 98: LTE Subscriptions in USA: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) ......................................................................................................... 207
Figure 99: LTE Service Revenue in USA: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) .................................................................................................... 207
Figure 100: LTE ARPU in USA: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) ............................................................................................................ 208
Figure 101: LTE Subscriptions in Japan: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) .................................................................................................... 209
Figure 102: LTE Service Revenue in Japan: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ............................................................................................... 209
Figure 103: LTE ARPU in Japan: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) ......................................................................................................... 210
Figure 104: LTE Subscriptions in India: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) ...................................................................................................... 211
Figure 105: LTE Service Revenue in India: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ................................................................................................. 211
Figure 106: LTE ARPU in India: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) ........................................................................................................... 212
Figure 107: LTE Subscriptions in Korea: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) .................................................................................................... 213
Figure 108: LTE Service Revenue in Korea: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ............................................................................................... 213
Figure 109: LTE ARPU in Korea: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) ......................................................................................................... 214
Figure 110: LTE Subscriptions in Germany: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) ............................................................................................... 215
Figure 111: LTE Service Revenue in Germany: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) .......................................................................................... 215
Figure 112: LTE ARPU in Germany: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) .................................................................................................... 216
Figure 113: LTE Subscriptions in UK: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) ......................................................................................................... 217
Figure 114: LTE Service Revenue in UK: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) .................................................................................................... 217
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Figure 115: LTE ARPU in UK: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) .............................................................................................................. 218
Figure 116: LTE Subscriptions in Indonesia: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) .............................................................................................. 219
Figure 117: LTE Service Revenue in Indonesia: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ......................................................................................... 219
Figure 118: LTE ARPU in Indonesia: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) ................................................................................................... 220
Figure 119: LTE Subscriptions in Brazil: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) ..................................................................................................... 221
Figure 120: LTE Service Revenue in Brazil: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ................................................................................................ 221
Figure 121: LTE ARPU in Brazil: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) .......................................................................................................... 222
Figure 122: LTE Subscriptions in Italy: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) ....................................................................................................... 223
Figure 123: LTE Service Revenue in Italy: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) .................................................................................................. 223
Figure 124: LTE ARPU in Italy: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) ............................................................................................................ 224
Figure 125: LTE Subscriptions in Russia: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) ................................................................................................... 225
Figure 126: LTE Service Revenue in Russia: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) .............................................................................................. 225
Figure 127: LTE ARPU in Russia: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) ........................................................................................................ 226
Figure 128: LTE Subscriptions in Spain: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) ..................................................................................................... 227
Figure 129: LTE Service Revenue in Spain: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ................................................................................................ 227
Figure 130: LTE ARPU in Spain: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) .......................................................................................................... 228
Figure 131: LTE Subscriptions in Saudi Arabia: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) ......................................................................................... 229
Figure 132: LTE Service Revenue in Saudi Arabia: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) .................................................................................... 229
Figure 133: LTE ARPU in Saudi Arabia: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month)............................................................................................... 230
Figure 134: LTE Subscriptions in Mexico: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) .................................................................................................. 231
Figure 135: LTE Service Revenue in Mexico: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ............................................................................................. 231
Figure 136: LTE ARPU in Mexico: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) ....................................................................................................... 232
Figure 137: LTE Subscriptions in France: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) ................................................................................................... 233
Figure 138: LTE Service Revenue in France: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) .............................................................................................. 233
Figure 139: LTE ARPU in France: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) ........................................................................................................ 234
Figure 140: LTE Subscriptions in Poland: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) .................................................................................................. 235
Figure 141: LTE Service Revenue in Poland: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ............................................................................................. 235
Figure 142: LTE ARPU in Poland: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month)........................................................................................................ 236
Figure 143: LTE Subscriptions in Malaysia: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) ............................................................................................... 237
Figure 144: LTE Service Revenue in Malaysia: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) .......................................................................................... 237
Figure 145: LTE ARPU in Malaysia: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) .................................................................................................... 238
Figure 146: LTE Subscriptions in Australia: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) ............................................................................................... 239
Figure 147: LTE Service Revenue in Australia: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) .......................................................................................... 239
Figure 148: LTE ARPU in Australia: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) .................................................................................................... 240
Figure 149: LTE Subscriptions in Philippines: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) ............................................................................................ 241
Figure 150: LTE Service Revenue in Philippines: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ....................................................................................... 241
Figure 151: LTE ARPU in Philippines: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) ................................................................................................. 242
Figure 152: LTE Subscriptions in Canada: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) .................................................................................................. 243
Figure 153: LTE Service Revenue in Canada: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ............................................................................................. 243
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Figure 154: LTE ARPU in Canada: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) ....................................................................................................... 244
Figure 155: Global TD-LTE Subscriptions: 2010 - 2020 (Millions).................................................................................................. 245
Figure 156: Global TD-LTE Service Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion)............................................................................................. 245
Figure 157: Global TD-LTE ARPU: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month)....................................................................................................... 246
Figure 158: Global LTE FDD Subscriptions: 2010 - 2020 (Millions)................................................................................................ 247
Figure 159: Global LTE FDD Service Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) .......................................................................................... 247
Figure 160: Global LTE FDD ARPU: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month)..................................................................................................... 248
Figure 161: Asia Pacific LTE Infrastructure Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Million) ............................................................................... 249
Figure 162: Asia Pacific LTE EPC Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) .............................................................................................. 249
Figure 163: Asia Pacific LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 ............................................................ 250
Figure 164: Asia Pacific LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) .............................. 250
Figure 165: Asia Pacific LTE Small Cell Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) ......................................................... 251
Figure 166: Asia Pacific LTE Small Cell Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ............................................................. 251
Figure 167: Asia Pacific TD-LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 ....................................................... 252
Figure 168: Asia Pacific TD-LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ........................ 252
Figure 169: Asia Pacific TD-LTE Small Cell Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) .................................................... 253
Figure 170: Asia Pacific TD-LTE Small Cell Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ....................................................... 253
Figure 171: Asia Pacific LTE FDD Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 ..................................................... 254
Figure 172: Asia Pacific LTE FDD Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ...................... 254
Figure 173: Asia Pacific LTE FDD Small Cell Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) .................................................. 255
Figure 174: Asia Pacific LTE FDD Small Cell Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ..................................................... 255
Figure 175: Asia Pacific LTE Device Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ................................................................... 256
Figure 176: Asia Pacific LTE Device Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ................................................................... 256
Figure 177: Asia Pacific TD-LTE Device Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) .............................................................. 257
Figure 178: Asia Pacific TD-LTE Device Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) .............................................................. 257
Figure 179: Asia Pacific LTE FDD Device Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ............................................................ 258
Figure 180: Asia Pacific LTE FDD Device Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ............................................................ 258
Figure 181: Asia Pacific LTE Subscriptions: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) ................................................................................................ 259
Figure 182: Asia Pacific LTE Service Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ........................................................................................... 259
Figure 183: Asia Pacific LTE ARPU: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) ..................................................................................................... 260
Figure 184: Eastern Europe LTE Infrastructure Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Million) ........................................................................ 261
Figure 185: Eastern Europe LTE EPC Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ....................................................................................... 261
Figure 186: Eastern Europe LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020...................................................... 262
Figure 187: Eastern Europe LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ....................... 262
Figure 188: Eastern Europe LTE Small Cell Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) ................................................... 263
Figure 189: Eastern Europe LTE Small Cell Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ...................................................... 263
Figure 190: Eastern Europe TD-LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 ................................................ 264
Figure 191: Eastern Europe TD-LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ................. 264
Figure 192: Eastern Europe TD-LTE Small Cell Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) ............................................. 265
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Figure 193: Eastern Europe TD-LTE Small Cell Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ................................................ 265
Figure 194: Eastern Europe LTE FDD Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 .............................................. 266
Figure 195: Eastern Europe LTE FDD Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ............... 266
Figure 196: Eastern Europe LTE FDD Small Cell Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) ........................................... 267
Figure 197: Eastern Europe LTE FDD Small Cell Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) .............................................. 267
Figure 198: Eastern Europe LTE Device Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ............................................................. 268
Figure 199: Eastern Europe LTE Device Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ............................................................. 268
Figure 200: Eastern Europe TD-LTE Device Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ....................................................... 269
Figure 201: Eastern Europe TD-LTE Device Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ....................................................... 269
Figure 202: Eastern Europe LTE FDD Device Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ..................................................... 270
Figure 203: Eastern Europe LTE FDD Device Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ..................................................... 270
Figure 204: Eastern Europe LTE Subscriptions: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) ......................................................................................... 271
Figure 205: Eastern Europe LTE Service Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) .................................................................................... 271
Figure 206: Eastern Europe LTE ARPU: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) .............................................................................................. 272
Figure 207: Latin & Central America LTE Infrastructure Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Million) .......................................................... 273
Figure 208: Latin & Central America LTE EPC Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) .......................................................................... 273
Figure 209: Latin & Central America LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 ........................................ 274
Figure 210: Latin & Central America LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ......... 274
Figure 211: Latin & Central America LTE Small Cell Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) ..................................... 275
Figure 212: Latin & Central America LTE Small Cell Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ........................................ 275
Figure 213: Latin & Central America TD-LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 .................................. 276
Figure 214: Latin & Central America TD-LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) .... 276
Figure 215: Latin & Central America TD-LTE Small Cell Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) ............................... 277
Figure 216: Latin & Central America TD-LTE Small Cell Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ................................... 277
Figure 217: Latin & Central America LTE FDD Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 ................................ 278
Figure 218: Latin & Central America LTE FDD Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) .. 278
Figure 219: Latin & Central America LTE FDD Small Cell Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) ............................. 279
Figure 220: Latin & Central America LTE FDD Small Cell Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ................................. 279
Figure 221: Latin & Central America LTE Device Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ............................................... 280
Figure 222: Latin & Central America LTE Device Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ............................................... 280
Figure 223: Latin & Central America TD-LTE Device Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units).......................................... 281
Figure 224: Latin & Central America TD-LTE Device Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion).......................................... 281
Figure 225: Latin & Central America LTE FDD Device Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ....................................... 282
Figure 226: Latin & Central America LTE FDD Device Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion)........................................ 282
Figure 227: Latin & Central America LTE Subscriptions: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) ........................................................................... 283
Figure 228: Latin & Central America LTE Service Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ...................................................................... 283
Figure 229: Latin & Central America LTE ARPU: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) ................................................................................ 284
Figure 230: Middle East & Africa LTE Infrastructure Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Million) ................................................................ 285
Figure 231: Middle East & Africa LTE EPC Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ............................................................................... 285
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Figure 232: Middle East & Africa LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 ............................................. 286
Figure 233: Middle East & Africa LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ............... 286
Figure 234: Middle East & Africa LTE Small Cell Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) .......................................... 287
Figure 235: Middle East & Africa LTE Small Cell Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) .............................................. 287
Figure 236: Middle East & Africa TD-LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 ........................................ 288
Figure 237: Middle East & Africa TD-LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ......... 288
Figure 238: Middle East & Africa TD-LTE Small Cell Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) ..................................... 289
Figure 239: Middle East & Africa TD-LTE Small Cell Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ........................................ 289
Figure 240: Middle East & Africa LTE FDD Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 ...................................... 290
Figure 241: Middle East & Africa LTE FDD Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ....... 290
Figure 242: Middle East & Africa LTE FDD Small Cell Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) ................................... 291
Figure 243: Middle East & Africa LTE FDD Small Cell Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ...................................... 291
Figure 244: Middle East & Africa LTE Device Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) .................................................... 292
Figure 245: Middle East & Africa LTE Device Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) .................................................... 292
Figure 246: Middle East & Africa TD-LTE Device Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ............................................... 293
Figure 247: Middle East & Africa TD-LTE Device Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ............................................... 293
Figure 248: Middle East & Africa LTE FDD Device Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ............................................. 294
Figure 249: Middle East & Africa LTE FDD Device Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ............................................. 294
Figure 250: Middle East & Africa LTE Subscriptions: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) ................................................................................. 295
Figure 251: Middle East & Africa LTE Service Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ............................................................................ 295
Figure 252: Middle East & Africa LTE ARPU: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) ...................................................................................... 296
Figure 253: North America LTE Infrastructure Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Million) ......................................................................... 297
Figure 254: North America LTE EPC Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ........................................................................................ 297
Figure 255: North America LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 ...................................................... 298
Figure 256: North America LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ........................ 298
Figure 257: North America LTE Small Cell Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) .................................................... 299
Figure 258: North America LTE Small Cell Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ....................................................... 299
Figure 259: North America TD-LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 ................................................. 300
Figure 260: North America TD-LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) .................. 300
Figure 261: North America TD-LTE Small Cell Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) .............................................. 301
Figure 262: North America TD-LTE Small Cell Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ................................................. 301
Figure 263: North America LTE FDD Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) ............. 302
Figure 264: North America LTE FDD Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ................ 302
Figure 265: North America LTE FDD Small Cell Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) ............................................ 303
Figure 266: North America LTE FDD Small Cell Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ............................................... 303
Figure 267: North America LTE Device Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) .............................................................. 304
Figure 268: North America LTE Device Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) .............................................................. 304
Figure 269: North America TD-LTE Device Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ........................................................ 305
Figure 270: North America TD-LTE Device Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ........................................................ 305
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Figure 271: North America LTE FDD Device Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ...................................................... 306
Figure 272: North America LTE FDD Device Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ...................................................... 306
Figure 273: North America LTE Subscriptions: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) .......................................................................................... 307
Figure 274: North America LTE Service Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ..................................................................................... 307
Figure 275: North America LTE ARPU: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) ............................................................................................... 308
Figure 276: Western Europe LTE Infrastructure Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Million) ...................................................................... 309
Figure 277: Western Europe LTE EPC Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ...................................................................................... 309
Figure 278: Western Europe LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) .................. 310
Figure 279: Western Europe LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ..................... 310
Figure 280: Western Europe LTE Small Cell Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) ................................................. 311
Figure 281: Western Europe LTE Small Cell Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) .................................................... 311
Figure 282: Western Europe TD-LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) ............ 312
Figure 283: Western Europe TD-LTE Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ................ 312
Figure 284: Western Europe TD-LTE Small Cell Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) ........................................... 313
Figure 285: Western Europe TD-LTE Small Cell Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ............................................... 313
Figure 286: Western Europe LTE FDD Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) .......... 314
Figure 287: Western Europe LTE FDD Macrocell Base Station (eNB) Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) .............. 314
Figure 288: Western Europe LTE FDD Small Cell Unit Shipments: 2010 – 2020 (Thousands of Units) ......................................... 315
Figure 289: Western Europe LTE FDD Small Cell Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million) ............................................. 315
Figure 290: Western Europe LTE Device Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ........................................................... 316
Figure 291: Western Europe LTE Device Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ........................................................... 316
Figure 292: Western Europe TD-LTE Device Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ..................................................... 317
Figure 293: Western Europe TD-LTE Device Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ..................................................... 317
Figure 294: Western Europe LTE FDD Device Unit Shipments: 2010 - 2020 (Millions of Units) ................................................... 318
Figure 295: Western Europe LTE FDD Device Unit Shipment Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ................................................... 318
Figure 296: Western Europe LTE Subscriptions: 2010 - 2020 (Millions) ....................................................................................... 319
Figure 297: Western Europe LTE Service Revenue: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) .................................................................................. 319
Figure 298: Western Europe LTE ARPU: 2010 - 2020 ($ per Month) ............................................................................................ 320
Figure 299: LTE Service Revenue by Region: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion) ............................................................................................. 325
Figure 300: Global Voice over LTE (VoLTE) User Forecast: 2013 – 2020 (Millions) ....................................................................... 327
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1 Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 Executive Summary
As a natural upgrade path for carriers from the previously detached GSM, CDMA
and TD-SCDMA ecosystems, LTE has emerged as the first truly global mobile
communications standard. Commonly marketed as the “4G” standard, LTE
promises to provide higher data rates and lower latency at a much lower Total
Cost of Ownership (TCO) than 3G technologies.
The TCO and performance is further enhanced by deployment of small cells and
the LTE-Advanced standard. LTE-Advanced or simply LTE-A is a further
enhancement to LTE which improves performance and data rates using features
such as the aggregation of carriers, interference management and advanced
antenna techniques.
With over 265 fully commercial network launches, LTE adoption has considerably
gained momentum throughout the globe, and a number of carriers have already
deployed LTE-A features such as carrier aggregation. SNS Research estimates that
LTE service revenues will account for $103 Billion in 2014. Revenues are further
expected to grow at a CAGR of 40% over the next 6 years.
Driven by these revenue prospects, operators continue to aggressively invest in
LTE infrastructure, encompassing macrocell base stations (eNBs), small cells and
EPC/mobile core equipment. LTE infrastructure spending is expected to account
for nearly $15 Billion by the end of 2014
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While LTE and LTE-A deployments are still underway, wireless carriers and
vendors have already embarked on R&D projects to develop 5G standards, which
offer even higher data rates than LTE-A. SNS Research predicts that fully
commercial 5G services will be rolled out by the end of 2020.
The “LTE, LTE-Advanced & 5G Ecosystem: 2014 – 2020 – Infrastructure, Devices,
Subscriptions & Operator Revenue” report presents an in-depth assessment of
the LTE, LTE-A and emerging 5G ecosystem including key market drivers,
challenges, operator revenue potential, infrastructure/device deployment
commitments, future roadmap, value chain, vendor market share and strategies.
The report also presents revenue and shipment market size and forecasts for both
infrastructure and devices, along with subscription and service revenue
projections for the LTE market as a whole, as well as separate projections for the
TD-LTE and LTE FDD sub-markets from 2014 through to 2020. Historical figures are
also presented for 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013.
The report comes with an associated Excel datasheet suite covering quantitative
data from all numeric forecasts presented in the report.
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1.2 Topics Covered
The report covers the following topics:
LTE and LTE-A ecosystem
5G technology, initiatives and R&D commitments
LTE infrastructure (FDD/TDD macrocell base stations, small cells & EPC)
LTE devices (smartphones and other form factors)
LTE subscriptions and service revenue (FDD and TDD)
LTE infrastructure and device vendor market share
LTE operator reviews and network deployment case studies
LTE Broadcast (eMBMS) and VoLTE
Market drivers and barriers
Wireless network infrastructure industry roadmap and value chain
Company profiles and strategies of LTE ecosystem players
Market analysis and forecasts from 2014 till 2020
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1.3 Historical Revenue & Forecast Segmentation
Market forecasts and historical revenue/unit shipment/subscription
figures are provided for each of the following submarkets and their
subcategories:
- LTE Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue
TD-LTE Macrocell eNodeBs (eNBs)
LTE FDD Macrocell eNBs
LTE FDD Small Cells
TD-LTE Small Cells
EPC
- LTE Device Shipments & Revenue
TD-LTE
LTE FDD
Form Factor (Embedded Cards, Consumer Gadgets,
Netbooks, PCs, Routers, Smartphones, Tablets and USB
Dongles)
- LTE Subscriptions and Operator Service Revenue
TD-LTE
LTE FDD
The following regional and country markets are also covered:
- Regional Markets
Asia Pacific
Eastern Europe
Latin & Central America
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Middle East & Africa
North America
Western Europe
- Top 20 Country Markets
Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India,
Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico,
Philippines, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Spain, UK and
USA
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1.4 Key Questions Answered
The report provides answers to the following key questions:
How big is the LTE, LTE-A and 5G ecosystem?
How is the ecosystem evolving by segment and region?
What will the market size be in 2020 and at what rate will it grow?
What trends, challenges and barriers are influencing its growth?
Who are the key LTE infrastructure and device vendors and what are their
strategies?
How much are vendors and operators investing in LTE?
What is the outlook for LTE-A adoption?
What is the outlook for eMBMS and VoLTE services?
How will LTE FDD investments compare with TD-LTE?
What opportunities exist for LTE small cells?
How will LTE ARPU evolve overtime?
Which countries will see the highest number of LTE subscriptions?
How much will vendors and operators invest in 5G R&D?
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1.5 Key Findings
The report has the following key findings:
In 2014 wireless carriers will pocket nearly $103 Billion from commercial
LTE service revenues
LTE and LTE-Advanced service revenues are further expected to grow at a
CAGR of nearly 40% over the next 6 years, eventually accounting for $672
Billion by the end of 2020
By 2020 nearly 50% of all LTE subscriptions will be on LTE-Advanced
networks
Samsung and Apple lead LTE-enabled smartphone shipments with a
combined market share of 73%
LTE infrastructure spending is expected to account for nearly $15 Billion
by the end of 2014. This includes spending on LTE macrocells, small cells
and EPC/mobile core equipment
Huawei and Ericsson lead the LTE infrastructure market with a combined
market share of 44%
Samsung is expected to significantly increase its stake in LTE infrastructure
contracts, and eventually become a Tier-1 vendor by 2017
Wireless carriers and vendors will spend at least $1 Billion per annum in
R&D spending to drive standardization and commercialization of 5G
technology
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1.6 Methodology
The contents of this report have been accumulated by combining information
attained from a range of primary and secondary research sources. In addition to
analyzing official corporate announcements, policy documents, media reports,
and industry statements, SNS Research sought opinions from leading industry
players within the LTE, LTE-Advanced and 5G ecosystem to derive an unbiased,
accurate and objective mix of market trends, forecasts and the future prospects of
the industry between 2014 and 2020.
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1.7 Target Audience
The report targets the following audience:
Wireless carriers/Mobile Network Operators (MNOs)
Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs)
Mobile infrastructure (RAN, Core, Backhaul) OEMs
Mobile device OEMs
Chipset manufacturers
Gateway vendors
Mobile chipset OEMs
Investors
Application & software providers
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1.8 Companies & Organizations Mentioned
The following companies and organizations have been reviewed, discussed or
mentioned in the report:
21 Vianet Group BluWan Eastlink KT Omnitel SMARTS True Move
2K Telecom BMW E-Band Communications KT Corp Rwanda
On Telecomunicacoes Smile TSKL
3 Austria Bollore Telecom ECI Telecom KTH - Royal Institute of Technology ONE Smoltelecom TTK
3 Denmark Bouygues Telecom Econet Wireless Kyocera Ooredoo Softbank Tunisiana
3 HK Brazil Army Eden Rock Communications Lanka Bell Open Mobile Softbank Mobile Turkcell
3 Ireland Brazil Sao Paulo Military Police Edgewater Lantiq Optimus
SOLiD Technologies U Mobile
3 Italia BridgeWave Communications EE Lattelecom Optiway Sony Mobile U.S. Army
3 Sweden Broadcom EION Leap Wireless/Cricket Optus Spectranet U.S. Navy
365 Media Brocade Elisa LG Orange Armenia SpeedConnect UbeeAirWalk
3Roam Browan EMT LG U+ Orange Austria SpiderCloud Wireless Ubidyne GmBH
4ipnet BSNL Emtel LightPoint Communications Orange Dominicana Spreadtrum Ubiquisys
6WIND BT EnergyAustralia Ausgrid Lightsquared Orange France Sprint
Ubiquiti Networks
A1 Telekom BTC EnGenius LIME Orange Liechtenstein Sprint Nextel u-blox
Aalborg University BTI Systems Entel Movil Linkem Orange Luxembourg Sprocket Wireless UCell
Aalto-University BTI Wireless Entel PCS LMT Orange Mauritius
SRT Communications UK Broadband
Ablaze BTL Entel Peru LSI Orange Moldova SSTL Ulusnet
Accedian BUCD Enterasys LTC Orange Romania Star Microwave Umniah
Accelleran Bulgaria Vivacom ERA/T-Mobile Poland M1 Orange Slovak Republic Starcomms Une-EPM
Actelis C Spire Wireless Ericsson Manx Telecom Orange Spain StarHub United Nations
Actix C&S ETC Marvell Orange Switzerland STC United Wireless
Adams NetWorks Cable and Wireless Etex Telephone Co-op Mascom Wireless Orange Uganda Stoke Unitel
ADLINK Cambium Networks EtherReach Massnet Orckit Corrigent Strata Networks Universitaet Bremen
ADTRAN
Cambridge Broadband Networks (CBNL) Ethertronics MAX Telecom Osnova Telecom Strix Systems
Universitat Politècnica de València
ADVA Canoga Perkins Ethio Telecom Maxim Integrated Overture Sub10 Systems University of Kaiserslautern
Advantech Carolina West Wireless Ethos Maxis P&T
Sunrise Communications
University of Oulu
Aero2 Carrier Access Corporation Etisalat MaxyTel P1 Networks
Surfline Communications US Cellular
Aerohive Casio Etisalat Misr MediaTek P4 (Play) SWIFT Networks UTStarcom (Star Solutions)
Aeronet Cassidian Evolve Broadband Megafon Panasonic Swisscom Vainakh Telecom
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Aircel Cavium Exalt Menatelecom Pandetel Sycamore VDC (VNPT)
Aircell CBL Bahamas ExteNet Systems Meru Networks Panhandle Telephone Co-op Syringa Wireless Velatel
Aircom International CCS Extreme Networks Mesaplexx Pantech T Mobile Velatel-Aerostrong
AirHop Communications Ceclcom Axiata FarEasTone Meteor PCCW Tango Verizon Wireless
Airspan CeedTec FastBack Networks Microwave Networks Peoples Telephone Co-op Tango Networks Videocon
Airtel Nigeria Celcite Fastlink (Regional Telecom)
Mid-Rivers Communications Personal Taqua Videotron
Airvana Cell C Femtel Milmex Pioneer Cellular Tarana Wireless Viettel
AIS/DPC Thailand Cellcom FibroLAN mimoOn Plexxi Tata Elxsi Vimpelcom
Al Madar CellO (Optiway and Cellvine) Firetide
Mindspeed Technologies Polkomtel Plus TDC VIP mobile
Alaska Communications Celtro Fitel
Ministry of Industry, Development and Reform Commission - China Positron-Aktino
TE Connectivity (Tyco Electronics Connectivity) VIPNet
Albis Technologies CenturyLink Fjarskipti (Vodafone Iceland)
Ministry of Science - China
Powerwave Technologies Tecom
Visafone Communications
Alcatel-Lucent Ceragon Fortinet
Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning (MSIP) - Korea
Poznan University of Technology TEKTELIC Viva
Alfa Chalmers University of Technology FPT Telecom MiSpot Proxim Telcel Vivacell-MTS
Algar Telecom (CTBC)
Chariton Valley Comms
Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft Mobile Norway/Tele2
PTK Centertel (Orange) Telco Systems Vivato
Algerie Telecom Charles Industries Freescale Semiconductor Mobily
Public Service Wireless Tele2 Vivo
Alpha Networks Chat Mobility Fujitsu Mobinil Public Wireless Tele2 Kazakhstan VMWare
Altel China Mobile Fujitsu (Formerly Fujitsu-Toshiba) Mobistar PureWave Networks Tele2 Sweden Vodacom
Altera China Mobile Hong Kong Fujitsu-Toshiba Mobitel PVT
Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM)
Vodacom Tanzania
Alvarion China Telecom Gemtek Moldcell Qualcomm Telecom Malaysia Vodafone
Andorra Telecom China Unicom Genband Monaco Telecom QuCell Telecom New Zealand
Vodafone Australia
Andrew/CommScope CHT General Dynamics Mongolia Telecom Quortus
Telefonica Movistar
Vodafone Czech Republic
Anite Cielo Georgia Magticom Mosaic Telecom R (Spain) Telefonica O2 Vodafone Egypt
Antares Group Ciena Glo Mobile Motorola Mobility RAD Data Systems Telefonica O2 Ireland Vodafone Fiji
Antel Cisco Globacom Motorola Solutions Radisys Telefonica O2 UK
Vodafone Greece
Anvaya Networks City of Charlotte Council Global Mobile Movicel RADWIN Telefonica Peru
Vodafone Ireland
Apple Claro Global Wireless Technologies (GWT) Movilmax Rakon Telefonica Spain Vodafone Italy
Aptilo Clear Mobitel Globe Movilnet Raytheon Telekom Srpske Vodafone New Zealand
Aqiva Wireless CNT GoNet Systems Movistar RCS & RDS Telenet Belgium Vodafone Portugal
Aquafon Cobham/Axell Wireless Goodman Networks MRV Communications
Redline Communications
Telenor Denmark Vodafone Qatar
Argela Coherent Logix Gore MTA REDtone Telenor Hungary Vodafone Romania
Aricent Colorado Valley GrenTech MTC Reliance Telenor Montenegro Vodafone Spain
Armentel Comba Guineanet MTC Touch Reverb Networks Telenor Norway Vodafone UK
Aruba Comba Telecom Handlink M-Tel RF Window Telenor Sweden Vox
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Aruba Networks Commnet Wireless Harris MTN RFNet Telesis VTel Wireless
Asiaspace Communication Components Inc. (CCI) Hatteras MTN Uganda
RFS (Radio Frequency Systems) TeliaSonera Vubiq
Askey Contela Hitachi MTNL Rogers Wireless TeliaSonera Norway Wataniya
ASOCS ConteXtream HP MTPCS Rostelecom TeliaSonera Sweden
Wataniya Telecom
Astellia Convergence Technologies HTC MTS Ro-Timak Technology
Telkom Mobile (8ta) WBS (iBurst)
AT&T Mobility Copper Valley Telecom Huahuan MTS Allstream Ruckus Wireless
Telkomsel Indonesia
West Central Wireless
Athena Wireless Communications
Corning/MobileAccess Huawei MTS Belarus RusViet Telecom Tellabs Wi-Ex
Atrica Cosmote Hutchison 3 MTS Ukraine RWTH Aachen Telrad Wi-Fi Alliance
Avanti COTA Murcia4G IBW International Myanmar P & T S and R Communications Telstra
Wilson Electronics
Avea Cross Telephone ICE
National and Kapodistrian University of Athens
S&T Telephone Cooperative Telus Wind
Aviat Networks Crown Castle iConnect Nawras Safaricom Texas Energy Network Wind Mobile
Axerra Networks CSI IDC Moldova NBN Co. Sagebrush Cellular (Nemont)
Texas Instruments
Wireless Broadband Alliance
Axis Teknologies CSL Limited iDirect Ncell Sagem TFL Wistron NeWeb Corp (WNC)
Azercell Custer Telephone IM2 NEC Sagemcom Thomson Woosh
Azerfon Cyan Imagine Group NEC Casio Mobile Communications SAI
T-Hrvatski Telekom Xilinx
b•lite Datame Infovista (Mentum) Neo-Sky SAI Technology Thumb Cellular XL Axiata
Babilon Mobile Datang Mobile
InnerWireless (Acquired by Black Box) Neotel Saima Telecom Tigo Xplornet
Bakcell DBD Institut Mines-Télécom Nepal Telecom Samsung Tikona Yoigo
Bakrie Telecom Dedicado Intel NetGear Sasktel TIM Brasil Yota
Batelco DeltaNode InterDigital Netronome Sazz TMC
YTL Communications Yes
Bayan Telecommunications Deutsche Telekom Intracom
New Postcom Equipment Sercom
TMN (Portugal Telecom) Zain
BayRICS Dhiraagu Intucell Systems (Acquired by Cisco) NewNet SerComm
T-Mobile Czech Republic Zain Jordan
Beeline Dialog Axiata LTE TDD later FDD Inwi Nexius SFR
T-Mobile Hungary Zain Saudi
Beeline Lao Dialogic
Iowa Statewide Interoperable Communications Board (ISICSB) NITA SGRITA
T-Mobile Macedonia Zamtel
BelAir DiGi ip.access Node-H Sharp T-Mobile Netherlands Zhone
BelCel Digicel IPITEK NOKIA Shentel T-Mobile Puerto Rico Ziggo
Belgacom / Proximus Digicel Fiji Islandcom Nomadix Shyam T-Mobile Slovensko Zinwave
Bell Mobility Digitel IT&E Guam Nomor Research Shyam Networks T-Mobile USA Zoda Fones
BendBroadband Digitel Jamaica JDSU (Arieso) NorthwestCell Si.mobil TN Mobile ZTE
BeST (Life) Dish Network Juni Nova SIAE Microelectronics TOT Thailand
BH Telecom D-Link Juniper NSN Siemens TPG Internet
Bharti Airtel DNA Juniper Networks nTelos Siklu TP-Link
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Bhutan Telecom DOCOMO Euro-Labs Kcell NTT DoCoMo Siminn TRaC Global
Big Switch Networks DoCoMo Pacific KDDI Nuage Networks (Alcatel-Lucent) SingTel Trango Systems
BigAir DragonWave Kentrox NVIDIA SK Telecom Transmode
BlackBerry DTAC – TriNet Kordia O2 Secure Wireless SK Telesys Tranzeo
BLiNQ Networks Du KPN Octasic Sky Brazil Triatel
Bluegrass Cellular E Plus KPN Base Oi
Smart Communications Tricom
Blueline eAccess KPU (Alaska) Omantel Smartone Tropos
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Copyright SNS Research Ltd, 2014. All rights reserved.
This material is subject to the laws of copyright and is restricted to registered
license-holders who have entered into a Corporate, a Multi-User or a Single-User
license agreement with SNS Research Ltd. It is an offence for the license-holder to
make the material available to any unauthorized person, either via e-mail
messaging or by placing it on a network.
All SNS research reports & databases are intended to provide general information
and strategic insights only, and they do not constitute, nor are they intended to
constitute, investment advice. SNS Research and its employees disclaim all and
any guarantees, undertakings and warranties, whether expressed or implied, and
shall not be liable for any loss or damage whatsoever, and whether foreseeable
or not, arising out of, or in connection with, any use of or reliance on any
information, statements, opinions, estimates or forecasts contained in the
reports.
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3.10 5G Requirements
While there is no set consensus on specific requirements for 5G, some of the key
5G requirements from METIS are highlighted below:
Data Rate 10 to 100 times higher typical user data rate where in a dense urban environment the typical user data rate will range from 1 to 10 Gbps
Data Volume 1,000 times more mobile data per area (per user) where the volume per area (per user) will be over 100 Gbps per square kilometer (resp. 500 Gbyte/user/month)
Device Density 10 to 100 times more connected devices Battery Life 10 times longer battery life for low-power massive machine
communications where machines such as sensors or pagers will have a battery life of a decade
Response Times Support of ultra-fast application response times (e.g., for tactile internet) where the end-to-end latency will be less than 5 milliseconds with high reliability
Cost and Energy Dissipation
Fulfill the previous requirements under a similar cost and energy dissipation per area as in today's cellular systems
Figure 12: METIS 5G Requirements
Source: METIS
3.11 Vertical Industries to Play a Key Role
Vertical industries are expected to play a more central role in the next generation
of wireless than they have before, amid growing penetration of wireless
connectivity in sectors such as automotive, transport, energy, public safety and
healthcare.
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8 Chapter 8: Vendor & Operator Landscape
Profiled in this chapter are some of the key players in the LTE infrastructure,
device and operator service markets.
8.1 LTE Infrastructure
8.1.1 Alcatel-Lucent
French telecommunications giant Alcatel-Lucent offers wireless network
infrastructure solutions as part of its wider portfolio which includes fixed and
converged networking hardware, IP technologies, software, and services.
Alcatel-Lucent has a strong foothold in LTE with an estimated 17% vendor share in
the RAN segment and a 30% share in the EPC segment. Alcatel-Lucent’s major LTE
infrastructure customers include a number of Tier 1 operators including AT&T and
Verizon Wireless from where it generates nearly a third of its revenue.
competitors such as Huawei and ZTE over concerns about the security of key
national infrastructure. Elsewhere, the company is losing grounds, especially
Europe.
However the vendor is assertively maintaining its market momentum with recent
contract wins with Chinese incumbents China Mobile and China Telecom in
Q4’2013. During the same quarter, the vendor also won a major LTE infrastructure
As U.S operators continue to invest on LTE deployments, Alcatel-Lucent enjoys
growth in margins because the U.S market is effectively closed to low-cost Chinese
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8.3.9 SoftBank
SoftBank is an incumbent Japanese telecommunications and media corporation.
The company established itself as a leading mobile network operator in Japan
following its takeover of Vodafone Japan in Q1’2006. The operator also owns an
80% stake in US operator Sprint.
Softbank announced the launch of its commercial TD-LTE service in Q4’2011, using
a 1 x 20 MHz channel in Band 41, where the center frequency is 2565 MHz. The
network was build using Huawei, ZTE4 and Ericsson5 infrastructure. After being
awarded new 900 MHz spectrum, the operator announced in Q2’2012 that it will
be expanding its mobile broadband offering by adding an LTE FDD network, built
using NSN and Ericsson infrastructure.
The first device offered by SoftBank for its TD-LTE network was the "ULTRA WiFi
4G SoftBank 101SI” manufactured by Seiko Instruments, which is a portable
router that can support peak downlink speeds up to 76 Mbps and up to 10 WiFi-
connected devices simultaneously. In Q3’2012, the operator introduced a number
of TD-LTE capable smartphones.
support a peak downlink data rate of 770 Mbps by utilizing LTE-A techniques such
as carrier aggregation, coordinated multi-point and cloud baseband processing.
4 Huawei and ZTE had both won contracts for the TD-LTE RAN
5 Ericsson was selected to build the EPC
LTE-A network. The demonstration of the network showed it could
In Q3’2013, SoftBank hosted a demonstration of a TDD based 3.5 GHz
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9 Chapter 9: Market Analysis & Forecasts
This chapter reviews the global LTE market from a quantitative perspective.
9.1 LTE Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue
SNS Research expects spending on LTE macrocell Radio Access Network (RAN),
small cells and Evolved Packet Core (EPC) infrastructure to increase from $15
Billion in 2014 to nearly $33 Billion by the end of 2020.
Figure 33: Global LTE Infrastructure Revenue by Submarket: 2010 – 2020 ($
Million)
Source: SNS Research
Of the total spending, $30 Billion will be on macrocell and small cell infrastructure,
while the remaining $2 billion will be accountable for EPC network equipment.
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
EPC/Mobile Core
LTE Small Cells
LTE Macrocells
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10 Chapter 10: LTE Infrastructure, Device &
Subscriptions Summary
In this chapter we summarize the present state of the LTE infrastructure, devices
and operator services ecosystem.
10.1 Infrastructure
10.1.1 Commercial Device Availability
EPC products, in both FDD and TDD modes of operation.
10.1.2 RAN Vendor Share: Who Leads the Market?
In terms to LTE macrocell RAN vendor share, Ericsson took a commanding lead in
LTE market share in 2012 due to its strong position with key operators in North
America, Japan and South Korea. Both NSN and Alcatel-Lucent also benefited from
strong operator spending in early LTE deployments.
As Huawei is largely prohibited from selling infrastructure in the U.S, it was
prevented from becoming a bigger threat to Ericsson and other players in 2012.
However Huawei’s market share has significantly increased in 2013, as LTE
deployments ramped up in Europe and Asia.
All major infrastructure vendors are now shipping commercial LTE RAN and
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10.3.2 Commercial Availability
LTE adoption took a positive turn with large scale deployments in the U.S, Japan
and Korea between 2010 and 2012. As spectrum complexities eased in 2013,
European operators soon followed suit, and since then LTE deployments are
accelerating across the globe.
As of Q1’2014, over 510 operators are investing in LTE worldwide, and over 265 of
these operators are offering commercial mobile broadband services on their LTE
networks.
10.3.3 How Big is the LTE Service Revenue Opportunity?
SNS Research estimates that 265 LTE networks will generate nearly $103 Billion in
service revenue in 2014 alone. LTE service revenues are further expected to grow
at a CAGR of nearly 40% over the next 6 years, eventually accounting for $672
Billion by 2020. By this time nearly 50% of the 2.4 Million LTE subscribers will be
supported by LTE-A capable networks.
Figure 299: LTE Service Revenue by Region: 2010 - 2020 ($ Billion)
Source: SNS Research
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800 Western Europe
North America
Middle East & Africa
Latin and Central America
Eastern Europe
Asia Pacific
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