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NCDC
State of the Climate: Recent Developments
Deke Arndt
Chief, Climate Monitoring Branch
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
1
NCDC
• Disclaimers, introductions, and other fun!
• Climate: it’s complicated
• How do we know the globe is warming?
• How do we know warming is driven by human activity?
• What else do we know about the state of today’s climate versus the “recent” past
2
Outline
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• Focused on the here-and-now of climate, climate variability and clmatechange.
• No polar bear pics … okay, just one
3
Today
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• CMB established 1998
– During record-breaking global temperatures
– Interest in climate [and its change] was high
– CMB provides regular updates of the State of the Climate
– Mission: to “monitor and assess the state of the climate”
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NCDC Climate Monitoring Branch http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-monitoring
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In other words …
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And a little bit of this …
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• I’m a meteorologist by training & education
• I learned about weather systems, jet streams, storms, tornadoes, etc.
– Then I got into drought
– Then I got into local climate
– Then I got into big-picture climate
• But my meteorology background is only a tiny part of the climate system, as we’re about to see in nasty detail
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About Me
NCDC
Data sources and resources
• BAMS State of the Climate – (annual, peer-reviewed) – http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-
climate/2009.php
• NCDC State of the Climate – (monthly, internally reviewed) – http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc
• NCDC Climate Monitoring – (updated daily-to-monthly-to-annually, depends on
what you’re after) – http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-monitoring
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• Annual supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
• “Annual physical” of the climate system
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State of the Climate
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2009.php
Click on “Key Climate Indicators”
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BAMS SotC Authors & Editors • 305 authors from 43 Nations • Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China,
Colombia, Comoros, Costa Rica, Cuba, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Niger, Paraguay, Peru, Russia, Seychelles, Solomon Islands, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, United Kingdom, United States, Uruguay, Venezuela, Zimbabwe
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What is in there?
• Chapter 2: Global Climate
– Atmospheric states, composition, terrestrial
• Chapter 3: Global Ocean
– Ocean color, currents, ocean salinity, deep-water
• Chapter 4: The Tropics
– Hurricanes, , El Nino / La Nina and similar features
• Chapter 5: The Arctic
– Glaciers and permafrost and sea ice
• Chapter 6: Antarctica
– Ditto, except upside down, and really different
• Chapter 7: Regional Climates
– Play-by-play accounts of climate events and trends in specific places
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1880-2009 Global Temperature
1980s warmest decade at the
time. Every year of 1990s
warmer than 1980s average.
1990s warmest decade at the
time. Every year of 2000s
warmer than 1990s average.
2010
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Historical Perspective
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Looking under the hood …
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Atmosphere: Surface
Atmosphere: Upper-Air
Atmosphere: Composition
Ocean: Surface Ocean: Subsurface Terrestrial
Air Temperature Earth Rad’n Budget Carbon Dioxide Temperature Temperature Soil Moisture
Precipitation Temperature Methane Salinity Salinity Snow Cover
Air Pressure Wind Speed & Dir Ozone Sea Level Current Permafrost + Seasonally Frozen
Sfc Rad’n Budget Water Vapor Nitrous Oxide Sea State Nutrients Glaciers + Ice Caps
Wind Speed & Dir Cloud Properties CFCs Sea Ice Carbon River Discharge
Water Vapor Hydro CFCs Current Ocean Tracers Water Use
Hydrofluorocarbs Ocean Color Phytoplankton Ground Water
Sulfur Hexafluorides CO2 Partial Pressure Lake Levels
Perfluorocarbons Albedo
Aerosol Properties Land Cover
Percent Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation
Leaf Area Index
Biomass
Fire Disturbance
Essential Climate Variables
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Essential Climate Variables Atmosphere: Surface
Atmosphere: Upper-Air
Atmosphere: Composition
Ocean: Surface Ocean: Subsurface Terrestrial
Air Temperature Earth Rad’n Budget Carbon Dioxide Temperature Temperature Soil Moisture
Precipitation Temperature Methane Salinity Salinity Snow Cover
Air Pressure Wind Speed & Dir Ozone Sea Level Current Permafrost + Seasonally Frozen
Sfc Rad’n Budget Water Vapor Nitrous Oxide Sea State Nutrients Glaciers + Ice Caps
Wind Speed & Dir Cloud Properties CFCs Sea Ice Carbon River Discharge
Water Vapor Hydro CFCs Current Ocean Tracers Water Use
Hydrofluorocarbs Ocean Color Phytoplankton Ground Water
Sulfur Hexafluorides CO2 Partial Pressure Lake Levels
Perfluorocarbons Albedo
Aerosol Properties Land Cover
Percent Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation
Leaf Area Index
Biomass
Fire Disturbance
NCDC
12/18/2012 17
Atmosphere: Surface
Atmosphere: Upper-Air
Atmosphere: Composition
Ocean: Surface Ocean: Subsurface Terrestrial
Air Temperature Earth Rad’n Budget Carbon Dioxide Temperature Temperature Soil Moisture
Precipitation Temperature Methane Salinity Salinity Snow Cover
Air Pressure Wind Speed & Dir Ozone Sea Level Current Permafrost + Seasonally Frozen
Sfc Rad’n Budget Water Vapor Nitrous Oxide Sea State Nutrients Glaciers + Ice Caps
Wind Speed & Dir Cloud Properties CFCs Sea Ice Carbon River Discharge
Water Vapor Hydro CFCs Current Ocean Tracers Water Use
Hydrofluorocarbs Ocean Color Phytoplankton Ground Water
Sulfur Hexafluorides CO2 Partial Pressure Lake Levels
Perfluorocarbons Albedo
Aerosol Properties Land Cover
Percent Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation
Leaf Area Index
Biomass
Fire Disturbance
Essential Climate Variables
NCDC
12/18/2012 18
Atmosphere: Surface
Atmosphere: Upper-Air
Atmosphere: Composition
Ocean: Surface Ocean: Subsurface Terrestrial
Air Temperature Earth Rad’n Budget Carbon Dioxide Temperature Temperature Soil Moisture
Precipitation Temperature Methane Salinity Salinity Snow Cover
Air Pressure Wind Speed & Dir Ozone Sea Level Current Permafrost + Seasonally Frozen
Sfc Rad’n Budget Water Vapor Nitrous Oxide Sea State Nutrients Glaciers + Ice Caps
Wind Speed & Dir Cloud Properties CFCs Sea Ice Carbon River Discharge
Water Vapor Hydro CFCs Current Ocean Tracers Water Use
Hydrofluorocarbs Ocean Color Phytoplankton Ground Water
Sulfur Hexafluorides CO2 Partial Pressure Lake Levels
Perfluorocarbons Albedo
Aerosol Properties Land Cover
Percent Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation
Leaf Area Index
Biomass
Fire Disturbance
Essential Climate Variables
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Atmosphere: Surface
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Air Temperature
Precipitation
Air Pressure
Sfc Rad’n Budget
Wind Speed & Dir
Water Vapor
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Atmosphere: Upper-Air
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Earth Rad’n Budget
Temperature
Wind Speed & Dir
Water Vapor
Cloud Properties
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Atmosphere: Composition
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Carbon Dioxide
Methane
Ozone
Nitrous Oxide
CFCs
Hydro CFCs
Hydrofluorocarbs
Sulfur Hexafluorides
Perfluorocarbons
Aerosol Properties
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Ocean: Surface
12/18/2012 22
Temperature
Salinity
Sea Level
Sea State
Sea Ice
Current
Ocean Color
CO2 Partial Pressure
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Terrestrial
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Soil Moisture
Snow Cover
Permafrost + Seasonally Frozen
Glaciers + Ice Caps
River Discharge
Water Use
Ground Water
Lake Levels
Albedo
Land Cover
Percent Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation
Leaf Area Index
Biomass
Fire Disturbance
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Multiple Climate Indicators
12/18/2012 24
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• Selected 11 indicators that would or would not reflect a warming world – Each built on >2
independent data sets
• In a warming world, based upon simple physical principles we would unambiguously expect …
• … the following indicators to increase: land surface air temp, sea-surface temp, marine air temp, sea level, tropospheric temp, ocean heat content and specific humidity.
• … the following indicators to decline: snow cover, sea-ice extent, glacier mass, and stratospheric temp (also influenced by ozone depletion).
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11 companion indicators to Tsfc
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Globally: Temperature over Land
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Globally: Temperature over Oceans
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Global Ocean Heat Content (upper layers)
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Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice
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Stratospheric Temperature
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Global-scale evidence: a warming world
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2010 update from NCDC State of the Climate
• Global: – Global Analysis (surface
temp & precip) – Upper Air – Snow & Ice – Hazards (what happened) – El Nino / Southern
Oscillation
• United States: – National Overview – Drought – Hurricanes & Tropical
Storms – Snow & Ice – Tornadoes
12/18/2012 32
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc
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2010: Very Wet Year
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2010: Wettest Year on Record*
12/18/2012 34
Based on
globally-
averaged
GHCN (land-
based)
precipitation
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Arctic Sea Ice Extent
• 3rd smallest annual minimum – Last 4 years are 4 smallest
• Below-average extent for all 12 months – Record smallest monthly extent
for Jun and Dec (pictured )
• Extended growth season – Sea ice extent approached the
long-term average in late March
• Short melt season – March 31st spring maximum is
latest start to the melt season on record
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Tracking “Stuff”
12/18/2012 36
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Eras & Epochs vs Episodes & Events
• There’s more to our climate experience than long-term trends
• We also should monitor those things that directly – or more obviously – affect us
• That stuff is often called “weather”
12/18/2012 37
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Relationship between weather & climate
Climate Weather
Literature Review: Stallone et al. (1976)
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El Nino / La Nina
• An oscillation or “sloshing” phenomenon.
• Has near-global impacts
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Unusual relationship w/ the Arctic
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Unusual meridional relationships
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Very Negative AO, with:
El Nino La Nina
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE: IN THE U.S.
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Annual Average U.S. Temperature
• Derived from
1,218 USHCN
(v2) stations
• Warming since
1895 happens to
be the same rate
as the rest of the
globe
• 2010: 53.8F
(1.0F above 20th
C. average)
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2010 Average Temperature: Ranks
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2010 Average Precipitation: Ranks
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US Climate Extremes summer minimum temperatures
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2010 State Monthly Climate Extremes Month Records by State Season Records by State
Jan Winter (DJF)
Feb 1st Qtr (JFM) NH VT ME FL MA RI MI
Mar MA NJ RI Spring (MAM) MI NJ NY CT RI MA VT NH ME
Apr CT IL ME NJ RI 2nd Qtr (AMJ) LA NC VA MD DE NJ CT RI MA NH ME
May LA RI Jan-Jun ME NH RI VT
Jun LA NC VA MD DE NJ RI IA MI Summer (JJA) MS AL GA FL TN SC NC VA MD DE NJ RI WI
Jul DE RI 3rd Qtr (JAS) FL MA WI
Aug LA FL Warm (Mar-Sep)
LA FL SC NC TN KY IN OH VA WV MD DE NJ CT RI MA NH VT ME
Sep NM MN Autumn (SON)
Oct NV FL 4th Qtr (OND) NV FL
Nov Jul-Dec
Dec GA FL NV UT Annual NH RI
KEY: WARMEST COOLEST WETTEST DRIEST
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July 23, 2010: Vivian, SD
Image courtesy Aberdeen, SD WFO
New National Record for:
Hailstone diameter: 8.0”
Hailstone weight: 1.9375 lb.
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Ten Significant Global Wx/Cx Events
51
Rank Event
1 Euro-Russo-Asian Heat Waves (& accompanying drought)
2 2010 Global Temperature
3 Pakistani Flooding
4 ENSO Transition (huge swing in intra-year measures)
5 Negative AO* (voters only considered Jan/Feb episode)
6 Brazilian Drought (record low streamflow at Rio Negro / Rio Amazon)
7 Historically Inactive Pacific Hurricane Season
7 Record NH Snow retreat (from near-largest in Jan to smallest by May)
9 Arctic Sea Ice Extent
10 Chinese Drought • Not considered due to timing:
– Late year Australian / Worldwide Flooding – December AO reprise
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Ten Significant US Climate Events
Rank Event
1 Extreme Snow Season / Consecutive Snowstorms (“Snowmaggedon”, etc.)
2 May Flooding in Central Tennessee (Nashville)
3 Extremely Warm Summer in Eastern U.S.
3 Midwest U.S. “Superstorm” Extra-tropical Cyclone
5 Historic Drought in Hawaii
6 No Hurricanes Made U.S. Landfall despite Active Atlantic
7 Near-Eradication of CONUS Drought in Mid-Year
8 National Record Hailstone, Vivian, SD: 8.0” diameter; 1 lb., 15 oz.
9 New England Flooding: Late Winter and Early Spring
10 Upper Midwest Tornadoes – Minnesota as #1 Tornado State of 2010 (?)
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• Not considered due to timing: – Late year California/Western Flooding – December AO reprise
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2010 Global Temps at a Glance
• Global Temp Anomaly*: +0.62C / +1.12F
– Tied 2005 for warmest
• Ocean Temp Anomaly: +0.49C / +0.88F
– Tied 2005 for 3rd warmest
• Land Temp Anomaly: +0.96C / +1.73F
– Tied 2005 for 2nd warmest
12/18/2012 53
* vs. 20th Century (1901-2000) average
Monthly Temperature Anomalies
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Climate Data: Fallacy #1 • Fallacy: Homogeneity
Adjustment inflates global temperature trends
• Truth: Adjusted trends are as often smaller than raw trends
• Comparing trends between raw and adjusted data shows an even split for the globe as a whole – 51%: Increase in trend when
adjusted – 49%: Decrease in trend when
adjusted
This and the following two slides were presented by
Jay Lawrimore at the AMS Meeting in Atlanta
NCDC
• Fallacy: The loss of stations in colder climates creates artificial warming
• Truth: Absolute temperatures are not used to calculate the global temperature – Global temperature calculations
are made using local temperature anomalies – departures from climatological average
– Anomalies in colder climates are often warmer (larger positive) than in warmer climates; i.e., poleward stations actually show more warming.
Climate Data Fallacy #2
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Climate Data Fallacy #3 • Fallacy: Grid box
averaging corrupts global average
• Truth: Provides equal weight to heavily and lightly populated areas
– Station temperature anomalies are averaged within 5x5 degree areas before the global average is calculated
– As a result: the global temperature is not disproportionally weighted to heavily populated areas
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Climate Change Data: Fallacy #4
• Fallacy: NOAA has “deleted” stations since the 1990s
• Truth: In the late 1990s, NOAA found, rescued and added thousands of stations from the 50s-80s.
• Greatest coverage during 1960s and 1970s
• ~1200-1500 stations are routinely updated.
– Monthly Updates via Global Telecommunication System
• Available since 1997 as GHCN Version 2.0
(NEW!)
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