state of the climate: recent developments...state of the climate: recent developments deke arndt...

NCDC

State of the Climate: Recent Developments

Deke Arndt

Chief, Climate Monitoring Branch

NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

1

NCDC

• Disclaimers, introductions, and other fun!

• Climate: it’s complicated

• How do we know the globe is warming?

• How do we know warming is driven by human activity?

• What else do we know about the state of today’s climate versus the “recent” past

2

Outline

NCDC

• Focused on the here-and-now of climate, climate variability and clmatechange.

• No polar bear pics … okay, just one

3

Today

NCDC

• CMB established 1998

– During record-breaking global temperatures

– Interest in climate [and its change] was high

– CMB provides regular updates of the State of the Climate

– Mission: to “monitor and assess the state of the climate”

4

NCDC Climate Monitoring Branch http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-monitoring

NCDC

In other words …

12/18/2012 5

NCDC

And a little bit of this …

12/18/2012 6

NCDC

• I’m a meteorologist by training & education

• I learned about weather systems, jet streams, storms, tornadoes, etc.

– Then I got into drought

– Then I got into local climate

– Then I got into big-picture climate

• But my meteorology background is only a tiny part of the climate system, as we’re about to see in nasty detail

7

About Me

NCDC

Data sources and resources

• BAMS State of the Climate – (annual, peer-reviewed) – http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-

climate/2009.php

• NCDC State of the Climate – (monthly, internally reviewed) – http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc

• NCDC Climate Monitoring – (updated daily-to-monthly-to-annually, depends on

what you’re after) – http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-monitoring

12/18/2012 8

NCDC

• Annual supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

• “Annual physical” of the climate system

9

State of the Climate

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2009.php

Click on “Key Climate Indicators”

NCDC

BAMS SotC Authors & Editors • 305 authors from 43 Nations • Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China,

Colombia, Comoros, Costa Rica, Cuba, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Niger, Paraguay, Peru, Russia, Seychelles, Solomon Islands, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, United Kingdom, United States, Uruguay, Venezuela, Zimbabwe

NCDC

What is in there?

• Chapter 2: Global Climate

– Atmospheric states, composition, terrestrial

• Chapter 3: Global Ocean

– Ocean color, currents, ocean salinity, deep-water

• Chapter 4: The Tropics

– Hurricanes, , El Nino / La Nina and similar features

• Chapter 5: The Arctic

– Glaciers and permafrost and sea ice

• Chapter 6: Antarctica

– Ditto, except upside down, and really different

• Chapter 7: Regional Climates

– Play-by-play accounts of climate events and trends in specific places

12/18/2012 11

NCDC

1880-2009 Global Temperature

1980s warmest decade at the

time. Every year of 1990s

warmer than 1980s average.

1990s warmest decade at the

time. Every year of 2000s

warmer than 1990s average.

2010

NCDC

Historical Perspective

NCDC 14

Looking under the hood …

NCDC

12/18/2012 15

Atmosphere: Surface

Atmosphere: Upper-Air

Atmosphere: Composition

Ocean: Surface Ocean: Subsurface Terrestrial

Air Temperature Earth Rad’n Budget Carbon Dioxide Temperature Temperature Soil Moisture

Precipitation Temperature Methane Salinity Salinity Snow Cover

Air Pressure Wind Speed & Dir Ozone Sea Level Current Permafrost + Seasonally Frozen

Sfc Rad’n Budget Water Vapor Nitrous Oxide Sea State Nutrients Glaciers + Ice Caps

Wind Speed & Dir Cloud Properties CFCs Sea Ice Carbon River Discharge

Water Vapor Hydro CFCs Current Ocean Tracers Water Use

Hydrofluorocarbs Ocean Color Phytoplankton Ground Water

Sulfur Hexafluorides CO2 Partial Pressure Lake Levels

Perfluorocarbons Albedo

Aerosol Properties Land Cover

Percent Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation

Leaf Area Index

Biomass

Fire Disturbance

Essential Climate Variables

NCDC

Essential Climate Variables Atmosphere: Surface















Leaf Area Index

Biomass

Fire Disturbance

NCDC

12/18/2012 17

Atmosphere: Surface















Leaf Area Index

Biomass

Fire Disturbance


NCDC

12/18/2012 18

Atmosphere: Surface















Leaf Area Index

Biomass

Fire Disturbance


NCDC

Atmosphere: Surface

12/18/2012 19

Air Temperature

Precipitation

Air Pressure

Sfc Rad’n Budget

Wind Speed & Dir

Water Vapor

NCDC


12/18/2012 20

Earth Rad’n Budget

Temperature

Wind Speed & Dir

Water Vapor

Cloud Properties

NCDC


12/18/2012 21

Carbon Dioxide

Methane

Ozone

Nitrous Oxide

CFCs

Hydro CFCs

Hydrofluorocarbs

Sulfur Hexafluorides

Perfluorocarbons

Aerosol Properties

NCDC

Ocean: Surface

12/18/2012 22

Temperature

Salinity

Sea Level

Sea State

Sea Ice

Current

Ocean Color

CO2 Partial Pressure

NCDC

Terrestrial

12/18/2012 23

Soil Moisture

Snow Cover

Permafrost + Seasonally Frozen

Glaciers + Ice Caps

River Discharge

Water Use

Ground Water

Lake Levels

Albedo

Land Cover


Leaf Area Index

Biomass

Fire Disturbance

NCDC

Multiple Climate Indicators

12/18/2012 24

NCDC

• Selected 11 indicators that would or would not reflect a warming world – Each built on >2

independent data sets

• In a warming world, based upon simple physical principles we would unambiguously expect …

• … the following indicators to increase: land surface air temp, sea-surface temp, marine air temp, sea level, tropospheric temp, ocean heat content and specific humidity.

• … the following indicators to decline: snow cover, sea-ice extent, glacier mass, and stratospheric temp (also influenced by ozone depletion).

25

11 companion indicators to Tsfc

NCDC 26

Globally: Temperature over Land

NCDC 27

Globally: Temperature over Oceans

NCDC 28

Global Ocean Heat Content (upper layers)

NCDC 29

Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice

NCDC

Stratospheric Temperature

12/18/2012 30

NCDC 31

Global-scale evidence: a warming world

NCDC

2010 update from NCDC State of the Climate

• Global: – Global Analysis (surface

temp & precip) – Upper Air – Snow & Ice – Hazards (what happened) – El Nino / Southern

Oscillation

• United States: – National Overview – Drought – Hurricanes & Tropical

Storms – Snow & Ice – Tornadoes

12/18/2012 32

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc

NCDC

2010: Very Wet Year

12/18/2012 33

NCDC

2010: Wettest Year on Record*

12/18/2012 34

Based on

globally-

averaged

GHCN (land-

based)

precipitation

NCDC

Arctic Sea Ice Extent

• 3rd smallest annual minimum – Last 4 years are 4 smallest

• Below-average extent for all 12 months – Record smallest monthly extent

for Jun and Dec (pictured )

• Extended growth season – Sea ice extent approached the

long-term average in late March

• Short melt season – March 31st spring maximum is

latest start to the melt season on record

12/18/2012 35

NCDC

Tracking “Stuff”

12/18/2012 36

NCDC

Eras & Epochs vs Episodes & Events

• There’s more to our climate experience than long-term trends

• We also should monitor those things that directly – or more obviously – affect us

• That stuff is often called “weather”

12/18/2012 37

NCDC

Relationship between weather & climate

Climate Weather

Literature Review: Stallone et al. (1976)

NCDC

El Nino / La Nina

• An oscillation or “sloshing” phenomenon.

• Has near-global impacts

12/18/2012 39

NCDC

Unusual relationship w/ the Arctic

12/18/2012 40

NCDC

Unusual meridional relationships

12/18/2012 41

NCDC

Very Negative AO, with:

El Nino La Nina

12/18/2012 42

NCDC

STATE OF THE CLIMATE: IN THE U.S.

43

NCDC 44

Annual Average U.S. Temperature

• Derived from

1,218 USHCN

(v2) stations

• Warming since

1895 happens to

be the same rate

as the rest of the

globe

• 2010: 53.8F

(1.0F above 20th

C. average)

NCDC 45

2010 Average Temperature: Ranks

NCDC 46

2010 Average Precipitation: Ranks

NCDC 47

US Climate Extremes summer minimum temperatures

NCDC 48

2010 State Monthly Climate Extremes Month Records by State Season Records by State

Jan Winter (DJF)

Feb 1st Qtr (JFM) NH VT ME FL MA RI MI

Mar MA NJ RI Spring (MAM) MI NJ NY CT RI MA VT NH ME

Apr CT IL ME NJ RI 2nd Qtr (AMJ) LA NC VA MD DE NJ CT RI MA NH ME

May LA RI Jan-Jun ME NH RI VT

Jun LA NC VA MD DE NJ RI IA MI Summer (JJA) MS AL GA FL TN SC NC VA MD DE NJ RI WI

Jul DE RI 3rd Qtr (JAS) FL MA WI

Aug LA FL Warm (Mar-Sep)

LA FL SC NC TN KY IN OH VA WV MD DE NJ CT RI MA NH VT ME

Sep NM MN Autumn (SON)

Oct NV FL 4th Qtr (OND) NV FL

Nov Jul-Dec

Dec GA FL NV UT Annual NH RI

KEY: WARMEST COOLEST WETTEST DRIEST

NCDC 49

July 23, 2010: Vivian, SD

Image courtesy Aberdeen, SD WFO

New National Record for:

Hailstone diameter: 8.0”

Hailstone weight: 1.9375 lb.

NCDC

THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME

Deke Arndt

[email protected]

50

mailto:[email protected]

NCDC

Ten Significant Global Wx/Cx Events

51

Rank Event

1 Euro-Russo-Asian Heat Waves (& accompanying drought)

2 2010 Global Temperature

3 Pakistani Flooding

4 ENSO Transition (huge swing in intra-year measures)

5 Negative AO* (voters only considered Jan/Feb episode)

6 Brazilian Drought (record low streamflow at Rio Negro / Rio Amazon)

7 Historically Inactive Pacific Hurricane Season

7 Record NH Snow retreat (from near-largest in Jan to smallest by May)

9 Arctic Sea Ice Extent

10 Chinese Drought • Not considered due to timing:

– Late year Australian / Worldwide Flooding – December AO reprise

NCDC

Ten Significant US Climate Events

Rank Event

1 Extreme Snow Season / Consecutive Snowstorms (“Snowmaggedon”, etc.)

2 May Flooding in Central Tennessee (Nashville)

3 Extremely Warm Summer in Eastern U.S.

3 Midwest U.S. “Superstorm” Extra-tropical Cyclone

5 Historic Drought in Hawaii

6 No Hurricanes Made U.S. Landfall despite Active Atlantic

7 Near-Eradication of CONUS Drought in Mid-Year

8 National Record Hailstone, Vivian, SD: 8.0” diameter; 1 lb., 15 oz.

9 New England Flooding: Late Winter and Early Spring

10 Upper Midwest Tornadoes – Minnesota as #1 Tornado State of 2010 (?)

52

• Not considered due to timing: – Late year California/Western Flooding – December AO reprise

NCDC

2010 Global Temps at a Glance

• Global Temp Anomaly*: +0.62C / +1.12F

– Tied 2005 for warmest

• Ocean Temp Anomaly: +0.49C / +0.88F

– Tied 2005 for 3rd warmest

• Land Temp Anomaly: +0.96C / +1.73F

– Tied 2005 for 2nd warmest

12/18/2012 53

* vs. 20th Century (1901-2000) average

Monthly Temperature Anomalies

NCDC

Climate Data: Fallacy #1 • Fallacy: Homogeneity

Adjustment inflates global temperature trends

• Truth: Adjusted trends are as often smaller than raw trends

• Comparing trends between raw and adjusted data shows an even split for the globe as a whole – 51%: Increase in trend when

adjusted – 49%: Decrease in trend when

adjusted

This and the following two slides were presented by

Jay Lawrimore at the AMS Meeting in Atlanta

NCDC

• Fallacy: The loss of stations in colder climates creates artificial warming

• Truth: Absolute temperatures are not used to calculate the global temperature – Global temperature calculations

are made using local temperature anomalies – departures from climatological average

– Anomalies in colder climates are often warmer (larger positive) than in warmer climates; i.e., poleward stations actually show more warming.

Climate Data Fallacy #2

NCDC

Climate Data Fallacy #3 • Fallacy: Grid box

averaging corrupts global average

• Truth: Provides equal weight to heavily and lightly populated areas

– Station temperature anomalies are averaged within 5x5 degree areas before the global average is calculated

– As a result: the global temperature is not disproportionally weighted to heavily populated areas

NCDC

Climate Change Data: Fallacy #4

• Fallacy: NOAA has “deleted” stations since the 1990s

• Truth: In the late 1990s, NOAA found, rescued and added thousands of stations from the 50s-80s.

• Greatest coverage during 1960s and 1970s

• ~1200-1500 stations are routinely updated.

– Monthly Updates via Global Telecommunication System

• Available since 1997 as GHCN Version 2.0

(NEW!)

state of the climate: recent developments...state of the climate: recent developments deke arndt...

Documents