recent developments in ccafs work on climate services

Jim Hansen, Flagship Leader, Climate Risk Management May 2015

Recent Developments in CCAFS Work on Climate Services

Overview

•  Climate services in the new Flagship 2 portfolio

•  Progress in external partnerships and funding

•  Informing climate services investment

•  Mainstreaming climate services in ongoing activities

•  Response to evaluation of Theme 2 climate services work

Vision for CCAFS Flagship 2: Livelihoods of farmers across Asia, Africa and La3n America are supported by effec3ve climate informa3on services, and protected by 3mely and well-‐targeted food security safety nets.

Targets:

15 institutions or consortia use CCAFS science to develop or improve major demand-driven, equitable, climate-informed services supporting rural communities.

15 million US$ increase in investment in climate services for agriculture and food security, that is informed by CCAFS science and engagement.

30 million farmers, 12 million women, with improved capacity to adapt to climate-related risk by accessing climate services and/or well-targeted safety nets that are informed by CCAFS science.

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Climate services in the Flagship 2 portfolio: Goal and targets

Climate services in the Flagship 2 portfolio: Impact pathways

•  Climate-based methods and tools for seasonal agricultural prediction and early warning

•  Knowledge and methods for equitable climate information and advisory services for smallholder communities

•  Weather-related insurance products and programs that benefit smallholder communities

•  Food security safety nets and policy interventions for dealing with impacts of climate-related shocks

•  Engagement, synthesis, evidence to guide investment in climate services for agriculture and food security

•  Regional and national meteorological institutions better meet the demands of climate service beneficiaries

•  Agricultural extension and climate information providers expand and improve climate service provision

•  Financial service providers improve design, targeting and scaling of insurance for smallholder farmers

•  Food security response organizations and safety net programs use improved information to better manage shocks

•  Regional and global development organizations invest, with greater impact, in climate services for agriculture

Flagship 2 products: Target outcomes:

CASCAID: Capacitating

African Smallholders with Climate Advisories

and Insurance Development

(ICRISAT/ICRAF)

Early warning for climate sensitive

diseases in Vietnam and Laos (ILRI)

Adaptive capacity of women &

minorities thru agro-climate

information in SE Asia (CARE/

ICRAF)

Flood Index Insurance for marginalized smallholder communities

(IWMI)

Climate-informed, ICT-based agro-

advisory service for crops in South and

Southeast Asia (IRRI)

Integrated Agricultural and Food Security Forecasting for

East Africa (CIMMYT)

AGROCLIMAS: Tailored Agro-

Climate Services for Latin America (CIAT, Bioversity)

Index insurance to enhance adoption of

climate-adapted germplasm (CIMMYT)

Index insurance complementing

other risk management

strategies (IFPRI)

Core Flagship 2 projects, 2015-2018




(ICRISAT/ICRAF)






ICRAF)


(IWMI)












strategies (IFPRI)


þ Prediction & early warning þ Rural climate services þ Insurance þ Safety nets

OUTCOME: >2M farmers use seasonal climate information. 4 boundary institutions provide climate advisory services. 2 NHMS & AGRHYMET improve crop monitoring and EW. 4 NHMS & AGRHYMET provide improved high-resolution forecasts. >1 PPP provides index insurance.




(ICRISAT/ICRAF)






ICRAF)


(IWMI)












strategies (IFPRI)


þ Prediction & early warning þ Rural climate services þ Insurance þ Safety nets

OUTCOME: PPP in 2 countries use agro-climatic tools for policy and programs. Farmer associations, agricultural extension reach 60k farmers with climate services. NMS incorporate seasonal forecasts into food security information system. Sentinel sites used for food security management. Increased control by women, marginalized.




(ICRISAT/ICRAF)






ICRAF)


(IWMI)












strategies (IFPRI)


☐ Prediction & early warning þ  Rural climate services ☐ Insurance ☐ Safety nets

OUTCOME: 200k women and ethnic minority farmers use agro-climatic information to manage risk. NMS & extension services support farmers with information. 80% project farmers implement plans that reduce crop failure.




(ICRISAT/ICRAF)






ICRAF)


(IWMI)












strategies (IFPRI)


☐ Prediction & early warning þ  Rural climate services ☐ Insurance ☐ Safety nets

OUTCOME: 500k farming households use ICT-based agro-advisory service to improve productivity and income.




(ICRISAT/ICRAF)






ICRAF)


(IWMI)












strategies (IFPRI)


þ  Prediction & early warning ☐ Rural climate services ☐ Insurance ☐ Safety nets

OUTCOME: National & regional institutions protect lives & livelihoods from climate shocks, by producing and using improved early warning to improve food security management in 3 countries.




(ICRISAT/ICRAF)






ICRAF)


(IWMI)












strategies (IFPRI)


þ  Prediction & early warning þ  Rural climate services ☐ Insurance ☐ Safety nets

OUTCOME: Farmers use tools to (a) avoid maize diseases, (b) prevent pig diseases, (c) tap rubber at the optimum time. Animal health workers identify, reduce risks of climate-sensitive livestock disease.

Progress in external partnerships and funding: Strengthening African regional climate service capacity

•  USAID Africa Bureau, $1-1.3M, 2 years

•  Support climate services in Africa through regional organizations and programs

•  Tentative areas of work:

§  Guidance and evidence to inform investment (ACPC)

§  Regional capacity to produce agriculturally-relevant climate services (AGRHYMET, IRI)

§  Regional capacity to support climate communications (AGRHYMET, tentatively ACPC, U. Reading, others)

Progress in external partnerships and funding: Empowering Farmers to Manage Risk and Adapt to a Changing Climate in Rwanda

•  Funding anticipated from USAID-Rwanda, 2015-2019

•  Objectives

§  Develop climate services, communication mechanisms to enable Rwanda farmers to manage climate risk

§  Support government agricultural and food security planning with climate services

§  Sustainable national climate services governance

Informing climate services investment

•  Myanmar

•  Agriculture Global Practice and GFDRR

•  Internship

•  Participation in ASAP inception meetings

•  CIASA: Climate Information and Services for Africa

Mainstreaming climate services in ongoing work: Senegal and Colombia

•  Senegal §  WA RPL (Robert), ICRISAT, ANACIM §  Reaching ~2M farmers through radio,

NGOs, agricultural extension §  Seasonal forecasts mandated in the

country’s 2014 Agricultural Plan

Mainstreaming climate services in ongoing work: Senegal and Colombia

•  Senegal §  WA RPL (Robert), ICRISAT, ANACIM §  Reaching ~2M farmers through radio,

NGOs, agricultural extension §  Seasonal forecasts mandated in the

country’s 2014 Agricultural Plan

•  Colombia §  LAM RPL (Ana-Maria), MoA (funder),

CIAT, producer associations §  Piloting local agroclimate technical

groups in 2 municipalities §  170 rice farmers (1800 ha) benefited

from response to seasonal forecast

Mainstreaming climate services in ongoing work: GFCS Adaptation Program in Africa

•  First national GFCS implementation, Tanzania & Malawi

•  Funded at ~$10M (2014-2016)

•  Agriculture & food security, health, DRR

•  CCAFS & WFP co-lead agriculture & food security: §  National framework consultation workshop process §  Needs assessment, M&E §  Training agricultural extension §  Preparation for radio & ICT delivery

•  Challenges: §  Partner challenges §  Personnel delay

Response to CCAFS climate services evaluation: Overview of process

•  Commissioned Osvaldo Néstor Feinstein

•  Objectives: §  Progress towards Milestones (primarily 2.3.2) §  Effectiveness of partnership strategy §  Appropriateness of scope relative to objectives §  How well results are captured and documented §  Areas for improvement

•  Qualitative, based on review of available documents, email questionnaire, and a set of interviews

•  Limitations

Response to CCAFS climate services evaluation: Relatively straightforward responses

1.  More proactive dissemination of climate services publications

2.  Improve the use of the IRI’s Climate Predictability Tool (CPT)

3.  Embed climate services in agricultural extension, into national agencies (meteorological and agriculture) that can provide sustainability

4.  Foster integration of climate services with other information and services, considering CSVs as a promising approach

1.  Newsletter, annual Flagship 2 meeting for CGIAR. More nuanced outreach for external partners

2.  Brokered discussion between the 1 respondent who raised this, and the key person at IRI. (IRI developed, maintains, supports use of CPT.)

3.  Agree fully. Past success has been mixed, sometimes constrained by resources. Feasibility improving with new / anticipated bilateral projects.

4.  Part of strategy at CSV sites, but weak in some activities. Scaling up requires also addressing integration at higher (national) levels.

Recommendation Response

Response to CCAFS climate services evaluation: Significant gaps, new priorities

5.  Cost-benefit analysis to provide evidence to support partners and governments to invest in scaling up climate services

6.  Strategy to address the scaling-up challenge: How to provide services at scale that are tailored to context-specific needs?

5.  An important gap in CCAFS work and expertise. Addressing through planned hire, to be hosted at ACPC. Outreach to other recognized experts.

6.  One of the most important challenges at this stage of development. Targeting as a priority within core team for research and writing. Will present this challenge to Flagship 2 PLs, collaborators.

Recommendation Response

Jim Hansen: [email protected]

Thank you!

recent developments in ccafs work on climate services

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