sheffield low emission zone feasibility study

STEP Meeting 21 January 2014Sheffield LEZ Feasibility Study

Dr David Connolly, SYSTRA Ltd

Tuesday 21 January 2014

Summary

1. Background to the Study

2. Scope and Methodology

3. Key Findings from the Data Analysis

4. LEZ Strategy Development

� Our approach to the LEZ strategy development

� Assessing LEZ strategy effectiveness

� The Recommended LEZ Strategy

1.

Background to the Sheffield LEZ Study

Context

� All 4 South Yorkshire Local Authorities have declared AQMAs for NO2 exceedances – Sheffield also

has/had PM10 exceedances

� Sheffield has been highlighted by the EU as an area requiring urgent attention because it is

unlikely to meet these health-based AQ EU Limit Values by 2015

� Sheffield’s AQ health impacts estimated as £160m (& 500 early deaths) per annum

� Transport emissions are the biggest single contributor

� Prospect of EU fines post-2015 helping focus defra (& local politicians’) attention on the problem

Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting DPage 4

South Yorkshire’s Current NO2 Levels

Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting DPage 5

Sheffield’s Current Air Quality (NO2)

Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting DPage 6

Table 1. Number of sites exceeding NO2 limit values (Based on Predicted 2013 levels)

PERCENT REDUCTION REQUIRED NUMBER OF SITES

0% 10

0-5% 8

5-10% 12

10-20% 13

20-30% 8

Total 51

Health vs PM2.5 Concentrations

in Sheffield Neighbourhoods

Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting DPage 7

City Centre

y = 0.21x2.87

R² = 0.38

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

PM2.5 (2010)

CHD Emergency Admissions (All ages)

y = 0.34x2.66

R² = 0.38

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

PM2.5 (2010)

CHD Emergency Admissions (All ages)

y = 45.5x1.42

R² = 0.32

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

PM2.5 (2010)

Circulatory Diseases Admissions

Why SCC needed an LEZ Strategy

NO2 annual mean concentration predicted to exceed the EU’s 40 µg/m3 limit for NO2 at

(at least) 40 locations in Sheffield in 2015

Data from our LEZ Appraisal Tool shows that >=7 years of fleet renewal would be

required to achieve compliance with this NO2 limit at all of these sites, assuming:

o there is no significant net traffic growth over this period

o all the other non-traffic sources of NO2 contribute their corresponding ‘fair share’ of

the required reduction; and

o Euro 6/Euro VI performance is as expected and does not deteriorate over time

Conclusion: further action is required to speed up the reduction in traffic emissions,

particularly NOX/NO2

Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting DPage 8

2.

Scope and Methodology

Improving the Evidence Base

� Developed a detailed understanding of Sheffield’s taxi fleet and their contribution to emissions

� Used SCC’s city-wide ANPR data (anonymised) to refine car/freight fleet composition assumptions

� Reviewed evidence regarding actual ‘real-world’ emissions

� Program of remote sensing of actual vehicle emissions at 5 locations within Sheffield’s AQMA

(carried out by emissions experts from ITS Leeds)

� Used South Yorkshire’s existing Air Quality model to convert changes in traffic emissions into AQ

Impacts

Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting DPage 10

Development of the LEZ Strategy

� Evidence-based recommendations

� Appraisal considered deliverability, affordability and acceptability of potential measures

� Study included some consideration of potential funding mechanisms and other ‘Delivery’ Issues

(including a ‘Next Steps’ section)

� Large Steering Group involved in shaping the final strategy

Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting DPage 11

3.

Key Findings from the Data Analysis

Vehicle Emissions Rates

� MVA/SYSTRA’s ENEVAL Software updated to be consistent with defra’s EFT, then COPERT 4 v10

� Revised 2015 traffic model forecasts

� Vehicle fleet assumptions from (anonymised) city-wide ANPR data

� Bus fleet information from operators

� Taxis (Hackney and ‘Other PHVs) identified separately from private cars

� New LEZ Strategy Appraisal Tool developed using observed emissions distributions (based on data

collected via roadside emissions monitoring by Dr James Tate ( ) up to EURO V and

supplemented by EURO VI standards)

Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting DPage 13

Fleet Information from Sheffield’s Number Plate Data

� Vehicles allocated to Euro engine class based on date of first registration

� Over 40% of SCC’s current car fleet is diesel and this proportion is growing

� More than half of the goods fleet is Euro 4 or newer

� Only 17% of the LGV fleet is Euro 5 or newer, compared with 35% of the OGV fleet

� Taxi flows considerably higher on Fridays and Saturdays

Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting DPage 14

Remote Sensing Vehicle Emissions ( )

Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting DPage 15

Average NOX Emission Rates for Cars and Taxis

Page 16 Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting D

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Average NOX Emissions for Goods Vehicles & Buses by EURO Class

Page 17 Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting D

-

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

4.

LEZ Strategy Development

Approach to LEZ Strategy Development

Analysis of UK AIR (defra ‘s Air Quality Data) and Sheffield AQ Monitoring Sites

o Magnitude of air quality problems

o Contributors to air quality problems eg traffic, other transport, industry, domestic

Strategy Development Tool

o Inputs: Anonymised ANPR Data, Roadside Emissions Monitoring (Dr James Tate, ITS

Leeds)

o Assumptions: Year, Strategy Elements

o Outputs: Contributions from different fleet to NOx and PM10

LEZ Strategy Objective:

o Traffic just tackling its ‘fair share’ rather than being expected to solve problems

caused by other emission sectors

o Focus on NOx (EU fines), but PM10 also important (health impacts)

Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting DPage 19

Predicted Proportions of City-wide Weekday NOx Emissions 2015

(based on anonymised ANPR and observed emissions factors)

Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting DPage 20

Predicted Proportions of City-wide Weekday PM10 Emissions 2015

(based on anonymised ANPR and observed emissions factors)

Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting DPage 21

What can we expect from natural fleet renewal by 2015?

(Do Minimum Impacts – 2015 )

Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting DPage 22

Strategy Year 2015

.

Impact of Strategy

Main Vehicle Type Vehicle Subclass

% Change in

NOx

% Contribution

to Total

Change in NOx

% Change in

PM10

% Contribution

to Total

Change in PM10

Car Private Car - Petrol -18.3% -3.3% -10.9% -2.0%

Private Car - Diesel -4.3% -1.6% -23.0% -8.1%

Private Car - Other 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Taxi_Hackney 2.6% 0.2% -9.8% -0.8%

Taxi_Other 6.3% 0.2% -15.9% -0.5%

LGV LGV 0.8% 0.1% -19.7% -3.9%

OGV OGV 4.3% 0.5% -13.0% -0.9%

Bus_SingleD 4.2% 0.2% 3.1% 0.1%

Bus Bus_DoubleD -17.9% -1.2% -0.4% 0.0%

Total -4.9% -4.9% -16.1% -16.1%

Do Minimum Do Minimum

Description Option 0 - Do Minimum (2015)

Factors included in the Appraisal of LEZ Measures

� Effective – must target vehicles which contribute to current and future emissions

� Significant proportion of current & future traffic

� High emission rate

� Efficient:

� = Emission reduction achieved/ the number of vehicles affected

� (but some vehicles spend longer driving in the AQMA than others)

� Cost-effective

� = Emissions reductions / (Cost of making the ‘bad’ vehicles compliant + a fixed component (design,

implementation, enforcement etc)

� Publicly/politically acceptable ?

� Inversely proportional to the number of vehicles affected?

� Deliverable

� Technically-feasible to meet emissions criteria

� Enforceable

� Affordable

Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting DPage 23

Developing the LEZ strategy

Discussions with Key Stakeholders

Pack of different strategy elements provided

o Impacting different fleets

o Different levels of ‘enthusiasm’

Assessing strategy effectiveness & efficiency

o Trade-off between emissions reductions achieved and number of vehicles affected

o taking account of the fact that certain fleets spend more time driving in the AQMA area

than others

o Upgrade costs (by vehicle type) used to produce a ‘cost-effectiveness indicator’

Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting DPage 24

Strategy Achievement Achievement DescriptionVery Low 0-5% NOX emission reduction

Low 5-10% NOX emission reduction

Medium 10-20% NOX emission reduction

High 20-30% NOX emission reduction

Excessive 30%+ NOX emission reduction

Option Targeting1 Bus & Taxi

2 Bus & Taxi & Goods Vehicles

3 Switching Diesel to Petrol (all feasible vehicle types)

4 Tackling Diesel Car

Recommended LEZ Strategy

Vehicle Technology

�Bus – ‘Best in class’ ie Euro

VI/CNG/Hybrid

�Taxi – Tackling ‘worst 50%’

�Goods – Tackling ‘worst 15%’

�6% of total fleet affected

�20% reduction in NOX emissions

predicted (inc 7% from Do Min)

Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting DPage 25

Behavioural Change

�Car – Switching 10% Diesel to Petrol

�Car – 5% Reduction

�Goods – 5% Reduction (more efficient

driving, Ecostars, smarter routing etc)

�A further 5% reduction in NOX emissions

predicted

Impact of Recommended LEZ Strategy –

ENEVAL 2015 DM vs DS NOX % Reductions

Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting DPage 26

Impact of Recommended LEZ Strategy –

ENEVAL 2015 DM vs DS PM10 % Reductions

Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting DPage 27

Discussion/Any Questions

?

Sheffield Air Quality Modelling – LEZ Phase 2 Steering Group Meeting DPage 28

?

??Dr David Connolly/ dconnolly@systra.com/ Ph: 0131 240 8904