september 2013 eco dev

Economic Indicators for

Economic Developers: Where

is our Economy Going?

Taggert J. Brooks, PhDAssociate Professor of Economics

University of Wisconsin-La Crosse

I HAVE NO IDEAREALLY

Reference Points MatterANCHORS AWAY

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

240.0

Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10 Jan-13

Case-Shiller Index of Home Prices

Phoenix

Minneapolis

7 Rivers Region

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

9.0

10.5

12.0

Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12

Unemployment Rates

La Crosse

MSA

WI

US

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

9.0

10.5

12.0

Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12

Unemployment Rates

MN

WI

US

UNEMPLOYMENT RATESBY COUNTY

EMPLOYMENT GROWTHBY STATE

2450.0

2500.0

2550.0

2600.0

2650.0

2700.0

2750.0

2800.0

2850.0

2900.0

2950.0

Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14

Min

neso

ta N

on-F

arm

Em

plo

yment:

Thousa

nds

The Dayton Promise: 240,000 Jobs

Source: BLS, http://goo.gl/lE69o

2550.0

2600.0

2650.0

2700.0

2750.0

2800.0

2850.0

2900.0

2950.0

3000.0

3050.0

Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14

Wis

consi

n N

on-F

arm

Em

plo

yment:

Thousa

nds

The Walker Promise: 250,000 Jobs

Source: BLS, http://goo.gl/lE69o

UncertaintyELIMINATING POLICY UNCERTAINTY

FISCAL DRAGPOLICY UNCERTAINTY

The Fiscal Cliff

THE FEDERAL RESERVEMONETARY POLICY UNCERTAINTY

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

1/3/2007 1/3/2008 1/3/2009 1/3/2010 1/3/2011 1/3/2012 1/3/2013

Fed Agency Debt Mortgage-Backed Securities Purch

Liquidity to Key Credit Markets

Lending to Financial Institutions

Long Term Treasury Purchases

Traditional Security Holdings

Tri

llions

Bernanke decides to talk “taper”

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13

Number of Building Permits in La Crosse MSA

Total Permits

Single Unit Permits

THANKS.

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

1/3/2007 1/3/2008 1/3/2009 1/3/2010 1/3/2011 1/3/2012 1/3/2013

Fed Agency Debt Mortgage-Backed Securities Purch

Liquidity to Key Credit Markets

Lending to Financial Institutions

Long Term Treasury Purchases

Traditional Security Holdings

Tri

llions

Explicit 2% Target

Announced

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

April

2002

October

2003

March

2006

February

2008***

February

2009***

August

2010***

Febraury

2012***

August

2013***

7 Rivers Consumer Sentiment

*** Survey moves to web

7 Rivers

National

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2008Q1 2009Q4 2011Q3 2013Q2

Change in GDP since Q1 2008US

France

Germany

Spain

Italy

“

”

If employment & prices are strong,

We can give up QE before long,

So we're tapering it,

But just by a bit,

In case we turn out to be wrong.

FRIDAY, AUGUST 16, 2013

Advance Draft of Next FOMC Statement from:

Dr. Goose (www.limericksecon.com)