salem's economic and housing outlook

Salem Economic and Housing Outlook

Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Josh Lehner

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are solely those of the presenter, they do not necessarily represent official State of Oregon policies or positions.

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis2

The Valley is Booming

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis3

Labor Market is Tight

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis4

Everybody has a Job Finally

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis5

Full Employment Impact

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis6

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis7

Poverty Rates Falling

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis8

Issue: Job Polarization

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis9

Polarization “Adjustment”

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis10

Outlook: Slower Growth

Housing

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis12

Statewide Challenge

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis13

Affordability

Qualityof Life

EconomicStrength

PolicyThe Housing TrilemmaCities face tradeoffs in terms ofhousing affordability, job availabilityand quality of life. Comparing the100 largest MSAs in the country.

Source: David Albouy, BEA, BLS, Census, IHS Global Insight, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

• Youngstown, OH

Detroit, MI •

Cincinnati, OH •

• Omaha, NE

Oklahoma City, OK •

Des Moines, IA•

Houston, TX •

• Atlanta, GA• Phoenix, AZ

• Seattle, WA

Portland, OR •San Francisco, CA •

Boise, ID •• Austin, TXProvidence, RI •

Sacramento, CA •Salem, OR •

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis14

Demand is Back

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis15

Aside: Salem’s Bright Future

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis16

Boomers AgingIn Place

Local Kids Aging Into Adulthood

Mostly Migrants

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis17

There is No Supply

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis18

Prices and Econ 101

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis19

•Confidence•Labor•Lots•Land Use•Financing

Supply Constraints

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis20

Labor Costs are High but Not Showing Up in Wages

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis21

•Builder Confidence•Labor Costs•Finding Enough Workers•Lot Supply•Credit Availability

Lot Supply Constraints

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis22

Blame Idaho’s Land Use?

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis23

Finances Slowly Getting A Little Better

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis24

Shift in Demand

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis25

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis26

Peak Renter in Theory

Age 3750% Owner50% Renter

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis27

•Moar broader focus on region

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis28

Outlook: Better Balance

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis29

It’s 5 O’clock Somewhere

Oregon Office of

Economic Analysis30

joshua.lehner@oregon.gov

(503) 378-4052

www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com

@OR_EconAnalysis

Questions and Contact