observation on state of robotics

Someobservationoncurrentstateofrobotics

AlbertYefimovRussianFederation

Skolkovo

Humansarebetterwithweapons

itiscomparativelyeasytomakecomputersexhibitadultlevelperformanceonintelligencetestsorplayingcheckers,anddifficultorimpossible togivethemtheskillsofaone-year-oldwhenitcomestoperceptionandmobility HansMoravec,1988

Robotdefinitionisverydifficult

CanyougivedefinitionofRobot?

RobotiswhatanExpertcalla

Robot!

StateofMachineLearning

”Ifintelligencewasacake,unsupervisedlearningwouldbethecake,supervisedlearningwouldbetheicingonthecake,andreinforcementlearningwouldbethecherryonthecake.Weknowhowtomaketheicingandthecherry,butwedon'tknowhowtomakethecake.”

HardwareforArtificialBrains

Hypothetical‘FullAI’wouldneed~10exaFLOPS,~500MW

CrayTitan~18pFLOPS Tianhe-2~34pFLOPS,~25MW

Cray-2(1985) iPhone5(2012)2.7timesmorepowerful 27years

CambrianMomentofModernRobotics

EnablingtrendsinRobotics

• Moor’sLaw• Digitalizationofeverything,includingproduction• BetterBattery• Hugecommunicationbandwidthincrease• Cloudrobotics• 3devices/humanin2019• Storageischeapcommodity

HumanSoldiervsRobotSoldierHuman Robot

Listening 16-20000Hz 1- unfinity

Viewing 160mlns ofcolors 150MP

Touching 13nm Dependsonmaterials

If feelscold,hotorhunger unhappy Doesn’t care

Emotions Alotof Notatall

Autonomyinmilitaryrobotics

Driverstofullautonomyinmilitaryrobotics

• Itissoeasytojamcommunicationsoftele/supervisedrobotsordrones.Examples:

DARPARoboticsChallenge Iran–U.S.RQ-170incident

Driverstofullautonomyinmilitaryrobotics

• Dramaticallyincreasefirepowerwithfewerpersonnel

Autonomoussystems

•Sea•Ground•Air

AutonomousrobotsatSeaACTUVSeaHunter

Autonomy:Mission levelDuration:20-120hSpeed:1-2M/sConnection:radio,hydroacousticDeepth:3-6kmRange:200-300kmExamples:Klavesin (Ru),Remus(US),Autosub (GB),Hugin (Nw)

Remora

Klavesin

Sanpa

• LevelofAutonomyisveryhigh• Rangeislimited• Noweapons• Onlyreconnaissancemissions

Reliablecommunicationsareneeded!

Autonomousgroundvehicles

FullFunctionalityEverywhere

FunctionalityLimited Full

Somew

here

Everyw

here

Space

UnmannedAerialVehicles

• Weightandpowersourceisthebiggestlimitingfactor

• HydrogenCellsarecomingtomarketverysoon

Robo

ticsinRussia

‘Therefore,themoretechnicaltheworldbecomes,themorenecessaryisthepromotionofindividualfreedomandtheindividual'sawarenessofhimselfasacounterbalance.’

AlbertSpeer