observation on state of robotics
TRANSCRIPT
Someobservationoncurrentstateofrobotics
AlbertYefimovRussianFederation
Skolkovo
Humansarebetterwithweapons
itiscomparativelyeasytomakecomputersexhibitadultlevelperformanceonintelligencetestsorplayingcheckers,anddifficultorimpossible togivethemtheskillsofaone-year-oldwhenitcomestoperceptionandmobility HansMoravec,1988
Robotdefinitionisverydifficult
CanyougivedefinitionofRobot?
RobotiswhatanExpertcalla
Robot!
StateofMachineLearning
”Ifintelligencewasacake,unsupervisedlearningwouldbethecake,supervisedlearningwouldbetheicingonthecake,andreinforcementlearningwouldbethecherryonthecake.Weknowhowtomaketheicingandthecherry,butwedon'tknowhowtomakethecake.”
HardwareforArtificialBrains
Hypothetical‘FullAI’wouldneed~10exaFLOPS,~500MW
CrayTitan~18pFLOPS Tianhe-2~34pFLOPS,~25MW
Cray-2(1985) iPhone5(2012)2.7timesmorepowerful 27years
CambrianMomentofModernRobotics
EnablingtrendsinRobotics
• Moor’sLaw• Digitalizationofeverything,includingproduction• BetterBattery• Hugecommunicationbandwidthincrease• Cloudrobotics• 3devices/humanin2019• Storageischeapcommodity
HumanSoldiervsRobotSoldierHuman Robot
Listening 16-20000Hz 1- unfinity
Viewing 160mlns ofcolors 150MP
Touching 13nm Dependsonmaterials
If feelscold,hotorhunger unhappy Doesn’t care
Emotions Alotof Notatall
Autonomyinmilitaryrobotics
Driverstofullautonomyinmilitaryrobotics
• Itissoeasytojamcommunicationsoftele/supervisedrobotsordrones.Examples:
DARPARoboticsChallenge Iran–U.S.RQ-170incident
Driverstofullautonomyinmilitaryrobotics
• Dramaticallyincreasefirepowerwithfewerpersonnel
Autonomoussystems
•Sea•Ground•Air
AutonomousrobotsatSeaACTUVSeaHunter
Autonomy:Mission levelDuration:20-120hSpeed:1-2M/sConnection:radio,hydroacousticDeepth:3-6kmRange:200-300kmExamples:Klavesin (Ru),Remus(US),Autosub (GB),Hugin (Nw)
Remora
Klavesin
Sanpa
• LevelofAutonomyisveryhigh• Rangeislimited• Noweapons• Onlyreconnaissancemissions
Reliablecommunicationsareneeded!
Autonomousgroundvehicles
FullFunctionalityEverywhere
FunctionalityLimited Full
Somew
here
Everyw
here
Space
UnmannedAerialVehicles
• Weightandpowersourceisthebiggestlimitingfactor
• HydrogenCellsarecomingtomarketverysoon
Robo
ticsinRussia
‘Therefore,themoretechnicaltheworldbecomes,themorenecessaryisthepromotionofindividualfreedomandtheindividual'sawarenessofhimselfasacounterbalance.’
AlbertSpeer