state of robotics 2015
TRANSCRIPT
THE STATE OF ROBOTICS 2015
ROBOTICS
ForewordThis report shares our experiences in the space since the creation of the 'Robotics' track at HAX.The full “Hardware Trends 2016” report will be published next year. Comments are welcome!
Thanks to HAX robotics founders and industry friends for their contributions, and to all robotics lovers out there who help make things happen.
Benjamin Joffe ([email protected])Cyril Ebersweiler ([email protected])Duncan Turner ([email protected])
Email: [email protected]: www.hax.co
Twitter: @hax_co
Intro
• What’s a robot today? • What happened in 2015? • What are the trends? • What barriers remain? • What’s coming next?
ROBOTICS
A few questionsIntro
Source: HAX State of Robotics, November 2015ROBOTICS
Intro The robots are coming!
Drones
AutonomousVehicles
ServiceRobotics
RoboMing
Tools
+ most major car makers (Toyota, Volkswagen, GM, Renault-Nissan, Hyundai-Kia, etc.)
RobotArms
Cobots
RobotToys
LifestyleRobots
SocialRobots
Robots are getting cheaper, smarter, more varied and reaching new industries.
Others
ROBOTICS
WHAT’S A ROBOT?
ROBOTICS
HAX definition
A device that adapts to its environment thanks to autonomous movement and autonomous decisions
What’s a robot?
ROBOTICS
Not a robot
Sorry guys
What’s a robot?
ROBOTICS
Barely a robot?
• Most don’t adapt and make decisions.
• Yet, they are gradually entering the field of robotics thanks to computer vision and adaptive algorithms.
Drones 3d printersRoombas Factory arms
What’s a robot?
ROBOTICS
PlatformsSeveral hardware and software “platforms” help the development of robotics projects:ROS: Robot Operating SystemOpenCV: open source computer vision libraryDeveloper arms: various of projects
Anatomy of a robot
ROBOTICS
Actuators• Actuators convert energy mostly
into rotational or linear motion.
• “Motors” are actuators, as are pneumatics, hydraulics, solenoids or shape-memory alloys and polymers (SMA/SMPs).
Source: www.robotshop.com
Anatomy of a robot
ROBOTICS Pneumatic & HydraulicDC linear actuator
Stepper motorGeared DC motor
Linear SMA
“Classic” DC motor
Solenoid
Industrial servo
Anatomy of a robot Actuators
ROBOTICS
• How many senses can a robot have?Surely more than five!
• A flurry of sensors have been made smaller, cheaper and better thanks notably to salesof smartphones and gaming consoles.
• Sound: infra, audible, ultrasound• Light: IR, visible, UV, in particular for RGBD/LIDAR used
for SLAM (simultaneous localization & mapping)• Touch: piezo/pressure• Smell: chemical• Other: accelerometer, gyroscope, GPS, barometer,
temperature, fingerprint, and many more!
SensorsAnatomy of a robot
Multi-touch touchscreen display, triple
microphone configuration, M8 motion coprocessor, 3-axis gyroscope,
accelerometer, digital compass, iBeacon, proximity sensor,
ambient light Touch ID fingerprint
reader, barometerROBOTICS
Robots can thank Apple, Microsoft and Nintendo
SensorsAnatomy of a robot
ROBOTICS
Microcontrollers & Microprocessors• Microcontrollers and microprocessor are the
onboard control, the “brain”.
• They very in cost, size, power, community/support, availability and complexity…
• The options range from a chip to a development board or a full-blown computer.
Source: www.robotshop.com
Anatomy of a robot
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The brains
Various ways to control
Anatomy of a robot
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2015 IN REVIEW
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Overall Trends• Faster, better, cheaper components
• More startups, more funding
• Robot-as-a-Service growing
2015 in Review
• More investments (sample)
ROBOTICS
More funding for robots
• Funding for drones
2015 in Review
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Large players in the space2015 in Review
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ROBOTS
ROBOTICS
Drones
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Trends• Major investments in 2015.• Most are still glorified RC copters.• Effort is put on software for navigation,
obstacle avoidance and some vertical applications like surveying & delivery.
“Drones are still pretty dumb. The biggest obstacle right now is… the ability to avoid obstacles.”
Chris Anderson, CEO, 3DR
Drones
ROBOTICS
Commoditization of hardware, some as cheap as $10
Drones for funDrones
ROBOTICS
France’s Parrot released a series of mini-drones
including an hydrofoil
Drones for funDrones
ROBOTICS
China’s DJI raised $105M and launched a $10M drone fund
Drones for imageryDrones
ROBOTICS
Drones for imagery
3DR raised $99M
Drones
ROBOTICS China’s Yuneec raised $60M
Drones for imageryDrones
ROBOTICS China’s eHang raised $52M
Drones for imageryDrones
ROBOTICS
France’s Parrot raised $35M Market cap is $290M (Dec 1, 2015)
Drones for imageryDrones
ROBOTICS China’s XAircraft raised $20M
Drones for imageryDrones
ROBOTICS
Amazon unveiled its new Air Prime delivery drone
Drones for deliveryDrones
ROBOTICS
SF Express said to deliver 500 packages per day
in Southern China
Drones for deliveryDrones
ROBOTICS
Alibaba tests drone delivery
for its Taobao service
Drones for deliveryDrones
ROBOTICS
Long flight drone
The Tailwing drone by Skyfront promises 4 hours of flight time
with its hybrid-electric technology
Drones
ROBOTICS
Drones for inspection
Collision-happy drone by Flyability
Drones
• GoPro announced its own camera drone for 2016.
• A flurry of other drone companies received angel, seed financing,and/or crowdfunded.
• Many startups are yet to ship their first product.
ROBOTICS
Other dronesDrones
• Key players in the drone space have formed the Small UAV Coalition to inform policy makers and promote safety.
• Members include Amazon, DJI, 3DR, Google, GoPro, Parrot and more
ROBOTICS
Drone IndustryDrones
ROBOTICS
Drones for sports
First-person view drone racing
might become a thing
Drones
ROBOTICS
Autonomous Vehicles
ROBOTICS
• Autonomous vehicles are now a mainstream topic.
• On the road with Tesla autopilot. Google, Uber and car makers are also on the job.
• Regulations making progress.
Vehicles Trends
USA
ROBOTICS
Tesla released its autopilot feature
Vehicles
USA
ROBOTICS
Google’s cars have driven 1.2M miles on the road, and 3M miles / day running scenarios
Vehicles
USA
ROBOTICS
Komatsu autonomous trucks in Australia at a mine operated by Rio Tinto
Vehicles
USA
ROBOTICS
Autonomous bus being tested in China
Vehicles
USA
ROBOTICS
Driverless tractors are getting started
Vehicles
USA
ROBOTICS
Robot car racing“In the future, all vehicles will be assisted by AI and powered by electricity, improving the environment and road safety.”
Denis Sverdlov Founder of Kinetik & ROBORACE
Races with autonomous cars will take place before Formula E
on the same circuits
Vehicles
ROBOTICS
Service Robots
ROBOTICS
Trends• Entering more industries• Robot-as-a-Service model• More companies & funding“Autonomous ground service robots today have the same kind of momentum that drones enjoyed 2-3 years back.”
M.A. Shah, Co-founder, Simbe Robotics
Service robots
Amazon bought Kiva for $775M. Over 15,000 robots are deployedROBOTICS
WarehouseService robots
India’s GreyOrange
raised $30MROBOTICS
WarehouseService robots
ROBOTICS
“Fetch” and “Freight” robots by Fetch Robotics pick and
move things in warehouses
WarehouseService robots
ROBOTICS
inVia robots reach new heights
WarehouseService robots
ROBOTICS
Locus Robotics deployed 10 robots
at Quiet Logistics
Service robots
Warehouse
ROBOTICS
Savioke already has 30 “Relay” offering room service
HospitalityService robots
ROBOTICS
Robot waiters do their best to follow lines at this restaurant
HospitalityService robots
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Hospitality
This dinosaur robot works as a receptionist at Japan’s Hen Na Hotel
Service robots
ROBOTICS
Knightscope robots patrol premises
SurveillanceService robots
Surveillance
ROBOTICS
Autonomous watchtowers by Insight Robotics
detect fires using the heat signatures of forests
Service robots
ROBOTICS
OSHrobot by Fellow Robots is a sales assistant at a Lowe’s Hardware store
RetailService robots
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“Tally” by Simbe Robotics counts Doritos and more
RetailService robots
ROBOTICS
Remote-controlled demolition robot
by Husqvarna
ConstructionService robots
ROBOTICS
Commercial cleaning robot by Avidbots
Industrial CleaningService robots
ROBOTICS
Dispatch and Starship are two startups aiming
for last-mile deliveries
DeliveryService robots
ROBOTICS
Bumber painting robot by Rational Robotics
AutoshopService robots
ROBOTICS
The sub-$1,000 robot by Roboming competes with market leader Double Robotics
TelepresenceService robots
ROBOTICS
Lifestyle Robots
ROBOTICS
• Robots in the house!
• Most are still very simple in terms of decision and movement autonomy, but they are improving and coming down in price.
Life- style
Trends
ROBOTICS
iRobot sold over 14M Roomba worldwide
Many others entered the market iRobot has a $1B market cap
Life- style
ROBOTICS
Dyson’t 360 Eye has more sensors to clean your floor
Life- style
ROBOTICS
John Deere, Husqvarna, Bosch, Robomow and many others
sell autonomous lawnmowers
Life- style
ROBOTICS
WINBOT robots by Ecovacs clean your windows
Life- style
ROBOTICS
The AquaTrek robot by Moai cleans your aquarium and streams its content
Life- style
ROBOTICS
The first robotic kitchen developed by Moley Robotics in collaboration with
Shadow Robot Company & others mimics BBC Master Chef Tim Anderson’s moves
Life- style
ROBOTICS
Following suitcase
by Nua Robotics
Life- style
ROBOTICS
Life- style
Robot wannabes• Some recent devices are
abusively called “robots”.
• They perform interesting tasks, and might evolve toward true robotics.
Bartesian: Cocktails Brewie: BeerMomentum Machines: Burgers
Teforia: Tea Auroma: Coffee
ROBOTICS
Robot toys
ROBOTICS
Trends• Lines between toys, tools and education
are not always clear.• Edubots = gateway to personalized
learning & getting children into coding?
“Right now, robotics technologies cannot make robots serve people well, but they can make people play well.”
Jasen Wang, Founder, Makeblock
Toys
ROBOTICS
Sphero raised $92M for its ball-shaped robots
Toys
ROBOTICS
Anki raised $105M for its AI-powered toys
Toys
ROBOTICS
Makeblock raised $6M for its robotics kit
Toys
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Robi sold over $100m kits via a $20 weekly magazine
Toys
Education
ROBOTICS
Robo Wunderkind is an educational robot for kids
Toys
ROBOTICS
The CellRobot by Keyi Technologies
is the first “affordable” modular robot
Toys Modular
ROBOTICS
Mecamons by Reach Robotics are AR-powered battle robots
Toys
ROBOTICS
iPal by AvatarMind wants to play with and teach your kid
Toys
ROBOTICS
Petronics makes autonomous robots for cats
Toys for Pets
ROBOTICS
Social Robots
ROBOTICS
Trends• Several investors and corporates
fund social robot projects heavily.
• Will 2016 be the year they break into the market?
Social robots
ROBOTICS
Softbank acquired France’s Aldebaran Robotics and
established a $589 robotics JV with Alibaba and Foxconn in 2015
Social robots
ROBOTICS Jibo raised $38.6M
Social robots
ROBOTICS France’s Keecker raised $1.15M
Social robots
ROBOTICS
France’s Buddy by Blue Frog Robotics
Social robots
ROBOTICS
Mabu by Catalia Health helps with your meds and reports to your doctor
Social robots
ROBOTICS
Robots by Hanson Robotics mimic human expressions
Social robots
ROBOTICS
Robot Tools
ROBOTICS
• Semi/fully-automated tools. Not exactly “autonomous” but soon-to-be robots.
• Desktop-sized and affordable
Tools Trends
ROBOTICS
Consumer 3D printers range from $100~$5,000
Tools
ROBOTICS Circuit board printer
Tools
ROBOTICS
Othermill desktop CNC by Other Machine Co
Tools
ROBOTICS
The OpenTrons lab robot automates liquid handling
Tools
ROBOTICS
Computer-assisted power tool
by Shaper Tools
Tools
ROBOTICS
Robotic arms
ROBOTICS
Trends• Yaskawa, ABB, Fanuc & Kuka are
world leaders. Chinese are growing.• Hobby arms are commoditizing.• Next step is a low-cost pro arm.
“The holy grail of robotics is an industrial-grade sub-$5,000 arm”
Robot arms
ROBOTICS
Kuka makes popular industrial arms
Robot arms
ROBOTICS
Robot arms
ROBOTICS
Robot arms
ROBOTICS
Several hobby arms are below $2000
Robot arms
ROBOTICS
7Bot - $350
Makearm - $1,399
uArm - $279
Low-cost arms
Dobot - $499
Robot arms
ROBOTICS
Carbon Robotics is working on a low-cost
industry-grade arm
Robot arms
ROBOTICS
A robot arm by ABB Robotics put to work as a bartender
Robot arms
ROBOTICS
Cobots
ROBOTICS
Trends• Collaborative Robots (Cobots) physically
interact with humans in a shared workspace.
• Cobots can be autonomous, help humans, or require help.
• The next step is to make them operable and even trainable by non-experts.
Cobots
ROBOTICS
Baxter by Rethink Robotics handles low volume,
high mix production jobs
Cobots
ROBOTICS
Denmark’s Universal Robots love working with humans
Cobots
ROBOTICS
Nextage cobots by Kawada Industries
join for morning calisthenics
Cobots
ROBOTICS
ABB’s two-armed cobot socializes at high level
Cobots
ROBOTICS
Other Robots
ROBOTICS
Google acquired Boston Dynamics and Schaft
Big Dog
Atlas
Schaft
Others
ROBOTICSTesla tendon-driven charger
Others
ROBOTICS
Amazon Challenge
The winner moved 10 out of 12 objects
in a 20-minute period
Others
ROBOTICS
Underwater robot
OpenROV underwater exploration robot
Others
ROBOTICS
da Vinci surgical robot
Over 200,000 surgeries per year from 3,000 locations
Others
ROBOTICS
Pet therapy robot
The “Paro” baby seal robot by AIST behaves like a pet
and helps patients relax
Others
ROBOTICS
Agribots• Harvesting, irrigation, pruning, weeding and
thinning devices are being field-tested worldwide.
• Automated spraying and seeding are done in Japan and Australia.
• Cow milking is growing; nurseries are beginning to use pick-and-place robots.
• Aerial observation robots along with in-field sensors might support the growing field of “precision agriculture”. Source: The Robot Report
July 2014
Others
ROBOTICS
Agribots
Picking strawberries requires computer vision
Others
ROBOTICS
Other robots• Some fields of robotics are still
confined to experiments and labs.
• Among them:• Modular robotics• Biomimetic robots• Soft robotics
Others
ROBOTICS
Biomimetics
Festo creates spectacular biomimicking robots
Others
ROBOTICS
EPFL develops adaptive robots
inspired by nature
Amphibious salamander robot
Cat-like robot
BiomimeticsOthers
ROBOTICS
Reconfigurable robots
Roombots are modular robot at EPFL They could power modular furniture
Others
ROBOTICS
Soft robotics
Inflatable arm by Pneubotics
Others
ROBOTICS
“A robot is just as good as its grippers”
- Robotics proverb
Others Grippers
ROBOTICS
Versaball gripper by Empire Robotics
Others
This “jamming gripper” used to be filled
with ground coffee
ROBOTICS
Festo FinGripperOthers
Bends naturally around objects
ROBOTICS
Others Biomimetic gripper
The Dexterous Hand by Shadow Robotics
uses 129 sensors, 24 motors and
26 micro-controllers
ROBOTICS
Lightweight grippers with ceramic tendons by SAKE Robotics
Others Lightweight grippers
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And finally… This robot solved a Rubik’s cube
in 2.39 seconds
Others
ROBOTICS
2016 & BEYOND
Will robots get their “Macintosh moment”?
ROBOTICS
2016 & beyond
ROBOTICS
• “Plug&play” hardware & software part will help more projects start.
• Lower price & size of components will open new opportunities. A low-cost LIDAR, for instance, would be a boon to robotics. Some sub-$500 units are apparently on their way for 2016!
2016 & beyond
ROBOTICS
• Service robots will growThe “robot-as-a-service” business model will spread as well. It is, in fact, not so different from renting a Xerox machine or hiring a cleaning agency.
• Non-robot devices will get smarter with computer vision and other sensors.
2016 & beyond
ROBOTICS
Robots are still too dumbMost consumer robots are wired or remote controlled. Barely robots, in fact!“Better & cheaper chips are needed for path planning, inverse kinematics, image processing, object and face recognition, or collaborative automation.”
“You can’t make an iPhone
out of an Arduino”
2016 & beyond
Dan Corkum Co-founder, Carbon Robotics
ROBOTICS
Resolution is too low• Hobby-level steppers and RC servos
are 100x to 1,000x worse than basic industrial robots. “It is like
comparing a Game Boy to an HDTV”
• This hurts accuracy, precision & repeatability.
• Low-grade drivetrains add slip, flex & backlash.
2016 & beyond
ROBOTICS
Safety is largely ignoredMost consumer robots are not powerful enough to be a danger, but for how long?
“A robot strong enough to do something you really want can also do something you really don’t want.”
The issues and ethics of autonomous car collisions might apply to others robots living alongside humans. Better find how to avoid collisions!
2016 & beyond
ROBOTICS
Plug & play hardwareMore technical bricks are still needed to made robotics easier.ROS makes a lot of hardware plug & play and is used by most startups focused on autonomous ground robotics
Open source projects like ROS, OpenCV and Linux made robotics more accessible to mainstream software engineers.
2016 & beyond
ROBOTICS
Interfaces still suckBetter interfaces are required to allow non-experts to interact with robots
“We need natural user interfaces.Think less along the lines of controlling with a joystick, and more like askingto complete a task.”
2016 & beyond
Dan Corkum Co-founder
Carbon Robotics
ROBOTICS
Most investors don’t “get” robotics
• The hardware/software stack of robotics startups is much more complex than apps or low-cost consumer hardware.“Oh! Raspberry pi and kinects - cheap!” …NOT
• To attract funding, the startup’s business case also needs to be proven quickly.
2016 & beyond
ROBOTICS
Robotics talent is lackingRobotics talent is not as readily available as full-stack web developers. Well-funded startups often resort to training in-house.
2016 & beyond
ROBOTICS
Robotics talent war• Uber hired about a third of Carnegie
Mellon University’s famed robotics center staff, about 50 people in the first half of 2015 alone.
• Google hired Robert Rose, the engineering manager who led Tesla’s Autopilot group.
2016 & beyond
ROBOTICS
Fear of robots?• Robots are often depicted as threats to our
safety or jobs. Yet, their actions depend on their design and programming.
• Robots are machines like cotton mills, washing machines and computers are.They can be workers, helpers, companions, pets, tools and toys. Measure of actual benefits and proper regulation can help public perception become more realistic.
2016 & beyond
ROBOTICS
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ROBOTICS
Robotics startups at HAX
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING
LIFESTYLEROBOTICS
Several startups on a “Fitbit trajectory”
“Lego for robotics” “Polaroid” mobile case
Circuit board printer $9 computer
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