national integrated drought information system

National Integrated Drought Information SystemSoutheast US Pilot for Apalachicola-Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin4 December 2012

OutlineWelcome – Keith Ingram, Southeast Climate

Consortium, UFCurrent drought status and how we got here – David

Zierden, Florida Climate Center, FSUStreamflows and groundwater – Tony Gotvald, USGSReservoir status and projections – Bailey Crane, US

ACESeasonal outlooks – David Zierden, FSUStreamflow forecasts – Jeff Dobur, SE River Forecast

Center, NOAASummary and Discussion – Keith Ingram, SECC

Current drought status from Drought Monitor

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

14-Day Precipitation Totals

Cumulative Rainfall Deficits

Past 30 days

Since Jan. 1

http://water.weather.gov/precip/

Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages

Current:

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Previous Brief:

Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows

Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with

historical streamflow for day shown

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Current:

Previous brief:

Lake Lanier Inflows

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Chestatee near Dahlonega (02333500)

Chattahoochee near Cornelia (02331600)

Current Streamflows

Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500)

Flint at Bainbridge (02356000)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Streamflows

Apalachicola at Chattahoochee (02358000)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Groundwater Status

http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

Miller County, GA(Upper Floridan Aquifer)

USACE – ACF Operations

11/09/12

11/10/12

11/11/12

11/12/12

11/13/12

11/14/12

11/15/12

11/16/12

11/17/12

11/18/12

11/19/12

11/20/12

11/21/12

11/22/12

11/23/12

11/24/12

11/25/12

11/26/12

11/27/12

11/28/12

11/29/12

11/30/12

12/01/12

12/02/12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE INFLOWVERSUS 1-DAY CHATTAHOOCHEE FLOW

ENTIRE BASIN INFLOW CHATTAHOOCHEE FLOW

AV

ER

AG

E I

NF

LO

W

2012 ACF Basin Composite Conservation & Flood Storage

Lake Lanier

West Point

W.F. George

Woodruff

5-Day Precipitation Forecast

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml

7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

Multivariate ENSO Index

1-3 Month Precipitation Outlook

1 Month

3 Month

Fall Rainfall Climatology

U.S. Drought Outlook

Above Normal

Near Normal

Below Normal

1-Month Streamflow Forecasts

Apalachicola WatershedSoutheast River Forecast Center

Lake Lanier Inflows

Whitesburg

West Point

Columbus

WF George

Columbus

Woodruff

Blountstown

Lovejoy

Carsonville

Albany

November 30th – December 30th

2012

Above Normal

Near Normal

Below Normal

3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts

Apalachicola WatershedSoutheast River Forecast Center

Lake Lanier Inflows

Whitesburg

West Point

Columbus

WF George

Columbus

Woodruff

Blountstown

November 30th 2012 – February 30th 2013

Lovejoy

Carsonville

Albany

63%

32%

5%

85%

14%1%

71%

18%11%

77%

20%3%

88%

9% 3%

Summary• Drought conditions have spread througout the entire

ACF with drought in the central part of the basin categorized as extreme to exceptional

• Similarly, streamflows are below average streamflows throughout the entire basin, though inflows to West Point are normal because of releases from Lake Lanier

• Ground water levels in S Georgia remain at historic low levels

• Basin inflows are about 1600 cfs below outflows, so reservoir levels have continued to decline, with Lake Lanier approaching the threshold for conservation zone 4

Summary• The 5-day outlook is for less than 1 inch of

precipitation in the northern half of the basin and no rain in the southern half

• ENSO conditions remain neutral, so a total of 3 to 6 inches of rainfall are expected for the basin in each month of December and January

• Streamflow forecasts at 1 and 3 months all suggest that drought conditions will persist or worsen

References

SpeakersDavid Zierden, FSUTony Gotvald, USGSBailey Crane, USACEJeff Dobur, SERFC

ModeratorKeith Ingram, SECC

Additional informationGeneral drought information

http://drought.gov http://www.drought.unl.edu

General climate and El Niño information http://agroclimate.org/climate/

Streamflow monitoring & forecastinghttp://waterwatch.usgs.gov http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/

Groundwater monitoringhttp://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

Thank you!

Next briefing – 18 December 2012, 1:00 pm EST

Slides from this briefing will be posted at http://drought.gov/drought/content/regional-programs/regional-drought-

webinars

Please send comments and suggestions to:ktingram@ufl.edu