National Integrated Drought Information System

National HIC ConferenceJuly 31, 2008

Victor Murphy SRH Climate Svc Program Manager

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Drought A normal, recurrent feature of climate.A normal, recurrent feature of climate. Occurs in virtually all climatic zones.Occurs in virtually all climatic zones. Originates from an extended period of time Originates from an extended period of time

with a deficiency of precipitation.with a deficiency of precipitation. This deficiency results in a water shortage for This deficiency results in a water shortage for

some activity, group, or environmental sector.some activity, group, or environmental sector. Its impacts often result from the demand Its impacts often result from the demand

people place on water supply.people place on water supply. Humans often exacerbate drought impact.Humans often exacerbate drought impact.

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A Normal Recurrent Feature of Climate

Late 1910s saw south TX receive record low Late 1910s saw south TX receive record low rainfall amounts (mainly 1917-1918).rainfall amounts (mainly 1917-1918).

Dust Bowl of 1930s devastated the Central Dust Bowl of 1930s devastated the Central Plains and exacerbated the Depression of Plains and exacerbated the Depression of that decade.that decade.

Drought of record in Texas and Oklahoma Drought of record in Texas and Oklahoma occurred in the 1950s and resulted in occurred in the 1950s and resulted in numerous societal changes (i.e. construction numerous societal changes (i.e. construction of many lakes in north Texas for conservation of many lakes in north Texas for conservation and drinking water).and drinking water).

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Billion Dollar Climate and Weather Disasters Since 1980

11 different heat or drought events…$145B in damage..28% of total monetary damage.

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Federal Reaction to Droughts and Drought Policy GAO study in 1979 recommended a GAO study in 1979 recommended a

national drought plan due to the national drought plan due to the aftermath of the mid 1970s drought.aftermath of the mid 1970s drought.

Immediate offshoot is an integrated Immediate offshoot is an integrated climate monitoring system and a climate monitoring system and a national drought center. The National national drought center. The National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, NB Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, NB is now funded by the USDA.is now funded by the USDA.

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Federal Reaction to Droughts and Drought Policy After a 2003 WGA/NOAA/NDMC After a 2003 WGA/NOAA/NDMC

meeting, the concept of NIDIS emerges.meeting, the concept of NIDIS emerges. The NIDIS final report is presented at The NIDIS final report is presented at

the WGA annual meeting in 2004 and the WGA annual meeting in 2004 and adopted.adopted.

It consists of 5 different key sections, It consists of 5 different key sections, with an emphasis on with an emphasis on monitoring, monitoring, mitigation, outreach, education, and mitigation, outreach, education, and forecasts.forecasts.

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NIDIS Primary sponsors are Rep. Mark Udall Primary sponsors are Rep. Mark Udall

of CO and Ralph Hall of TX in the of CO and Ralph Hall of TX in the House, and Sen. Nelson of NE and House, and Sen. Nelson of NE and Sen. Domenici of NM in the Senate.Sen. Domenici of NM in the Senate.

NOAA Designated as Lead Agency NOAA Designated as Lead Agency when NIDIS Act of 2006 introduced in when NIDIS Act of 2006 introduced in Congress.Congress.

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ion Public Law 109-430 passes Congress Public Law 109-430 passes Congress

in 2006. in 2006. ““The National Integrated Drought The National Integrated Drought

Information System Act of 2006.”Information System Act of 2006.” NOAA establishes a NIDIS Program NOAA establishes a NIDIS Program

Office in Boulder, CO.Office in Boulder, CO. Roger Pulwarty named as Director.Roger Pulwarty named as Director.

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ion ““A dynamic and accessible drought A dynamic and accessible drought

information system that provides users information system that provides users with the ability to determine the potential with the ability to determine the potential impacts of drought and the associated impacts of drought and the associated risks they bring, and the decision risks they bring, and the decision support tools needed to support tools needed to better prepare better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.”for and mitigate the effects of drought.” Public Law 109-430 (2006Public Law 109-430 (2006))

NIDIS Vision

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Now, toss in some climatechange

As per the Findings and Summary of the As per the Findings and Summary of the US Climate Change Science Program US Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment:Synthesis and Assessment:

Precip is likely to be less frequent but Precip is likely to be less frequent but more intense, and extremes are likely to more intense, and extremes are likely to increase.increase.

Droughts are likely to become more Droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe in some regions. frequent and severe in some regions. These regions include the US southwest.These regions include the US southwest.

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Drought Information: NIDIS Early Warning (sub)Systems

Monitoring and forecastingMonitoring and forecastingNational, regional and local levels: Existing, gaps, emerging needsNational, regional and local levels: Existing, gaps, emerging needs

Risk assessment Risk assessment Coordinated Federal information should enable resources andCoordinated Federal information should enable resources and disaster disaster

management authorities to generate their own risk and impact scenarios, management authorities to generate their own risk and impact scenarios, trigger and tools developmenttrigger and tools development

Communication and PreparednessCommunication and Preparedness

Inform actions required to reduce the loss and damage expected from an Inform actions required to reduce the loss and damage expected from an impending event and for post-event planningimpending event and for post-event planningU.S. Drought PortalU.S. Drought Portal

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NIDIS VISION and GOALSNIDIS VISION and GOALS

““A dynamic and accessible drought information system that provides users A dynamic and accessible drought information system that provides users with the ability to determine the potential impacts of drought and the with the ability to determine the potential impacts of drought and the associated risks they bring, and the decision support tools needed to better associated risks they bring, and the decision support tools needed to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.”prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.”

Implementation requires:Implementation requires:

• Coordinate a national drought monitoring and forecasting systemCoordinate a national drought monitoring and forecasting system

• Creating a drought early warning systemCreating a drought early warning system

• Providing an interactive drought information delivery system for Providing an interactive drought information delivery system for products and services—including an internet portal and products and services—including an internet portal and standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc)Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc)

• Designing mechanisms for improved interaction with public Designing mechanisms for improved interaction with public (education materials, etc)(education materials, etc)

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NOAA

Western Governors Association

USGS

Dept. of Interior (BoR)

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

USDA (NRCS, ARS, CSREES)

NASA

Indigenous Waters Network

Regional Climate Centers

National Drought Mitigation Center

Association of State Climatologists

Cornell University

New Mexico State University

Rutgers University

South Dakota State University

University of Oklahoma

University of South Carolina

University of Washington

The Weather Channel

NIDIS Implementation Team Partners (to date):

www.drought.gov

New:

Duke Power

U. Georgia

Others?

Governance Structure for NIDIS Implementation

NIDIS Executive CouncilCo-chairs: Director, NOAA Climate Program Office (or designee)

Director, National Drought Mitigation Center (or designee)

NIDIS Program Office(NPO Director)•Coordinate NIDIS-relevant cross-NOAA•and Interagency drought-related activities•Develop a national presence for NIDIS(e.g. formal links to National GovernorsAss’n)•Participate in GEOSS / IEOS

Public AwarenessAnd Education

IntegratedMonitoring and

Forecasting

InterdisciplinaryResearch andApplications

Engaging PreparednessCommunities

U.S.Drought Portal

NIDIS Program Implementation Team (NPIT)Working-Level Partner Representatives

Coordinate and develop evaluation criteria for all NIDIS activities including pilot project selection

Chair: NPO Director

National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning System Design, Pilots, and Implementation

NIDIS Technical Working GroupsFederal, Regional, State, Tribal and Local Partner Leads

Embedded in national and regional, and local NIDIS ActivitiesDevelop pilot implementation and transferability criteria

Co-Chairs selected by NPIT

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www.drought.govwww.drought.gov

Showcase Portlets:1.) U.S. Drought Monitor (NOAA, USDA, NDMC)2.) Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Forecast (NOAA)3.) Drought Impacts Reporter (NDMC)

1. 2. 3.

Key Themes1.) Current Drought2.) Forecasting3.) Impacts4.) Planning5.) Education6.) Research

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National Staples in Drought Portal

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National Staples in Drought Portal

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RFC Products in Drought Portal

Others?

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Western RCC Desert Research

Institute

RISA – Pacific Northwest

RISA – California

RISA – Arizona - CLIMAS

High Plains RCC University of Nebraska

Midwestern RCC Illinois State Water Survey

InternationalResearch Institute

Northeast RCC Cornell University

Climate PredictionCenter, Climate Services Division

National ClimaticData Center

Southeast RCC S.C. Dept. of Natural

ResourcesRISA – Florida

Southern RCC Louisiana State

University

National CenterRegional Center

RISA’s

States ParticipatingIn Two Regions

RISA – Western Water

Physical Sciences Division

Pacific ENSOApplications

Center

RISA – NewHampshire

NWS RHQ

NOAA & NOAA-Supported Centers

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Percent Change in Total Population, 1990-2000

Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Atlas of the United States

5 5

1 4 31 4 3

22

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Multiple competing valuesMultiple, competing objectives

Ecosystemshealth

Hydropower

Recreation

Floodcontrol Agriculture

Consumptiveuse

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Risk Assessments

PredictionMonitoring

ImpactMitigation

ProactivePlanning

ImprovedAdaptation?

Engaging research, management and planning communities:Stakeholder defined measures of drought and triggers for decision making

Engaging the preparedness communities

Integrating Tools:e.g. Drought Portal

Coordinating federal, state, and local drought-related activities (e.g., within watersheds and states)

Identifying and diffusing innovative strategies for drought risk assessment, communication and preparedness

NIDIS Process Model:NIDIS Process Model:Implementing NIDIS PilotsImplementing NIDIS Pilots

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RFCs are uniquely suited both in spatial RFCs are uniquely suited both in spatial coverage of HSA area and unique coverage of HSA area and unique knowledge of local customer needs to knowledge of local customer needs to deliver key products and services to deliver key products and services to meet the needs of water users and meet the needs of water users and decision makers within the ambit of decision makers within the ambit of NIDIS.NIDIS.

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Large Parts of the Large Parts of the country rely on country rely on groundwatergroundwater

Recharge intermittent Recharge intermittent in many locationsin many locations

• Very little is known about how groundwater will change• Data lacking yet critical for management and modeling• Aquifer Storage and Recovery an old technique with

potential to assist with storage issues

USGS C. 1186

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Proposed NIDIS Drought Early Warning Systems

SoutheastSoutheast

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Southeast US NIDIS Drought Workshop

April 20-30, 2008 inPeachtree City, GA

Focused on the ACF/ATCBasins and coastal plainsof AL/GA/FL

Over 60 attendees from Government and Industry

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Atlanta Journal Constitution Oct. 2007

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NWS River ForecastCenters are providingongoing regional andstate droughtinformation.

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Tri-State Water Briefing January 22, 2008

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A Consistently Deepening and Expanding Drought

Opportunities

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NIDIS Opportunities Funding provided to OHD to begin new Funding provided to OHD to begin new

low flow initiatives.low flow initiatives.

Targets of Opportunity.Targets of Opportunity. ACT/ATC BasinACT/ATC Basin Upper Colorado BasinUpper Colorado Basin

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Industry-Power/Ag

Environment

States Feds

Cities

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Thank you!

Victor Murphy 817-978-2652 x 130

Roger PulwartyRoger.Pulwarty@noaa.gov303-497-4425