the national integrated drought information system · 2011-09-29 · national integrated drought...

R Pulwarty, M. Hayes, C. McNutt, M Svoboda

NOAA, NDMC

and the NIDIS Implementation Team

R Pulwarty, M. Hayes, C. McNutt, M Svoboda

NOAA, NDMC

and the NIDIS Implementation Team

The National Integrated Drought Information System

Changes in run-off, 21st century. White areas are where less than two-thirds of models agree, hatched are where 90% of

models agree

IPCC Technical Paper on Climate Change and WaterReleased April 2008

>1YEAR

10YEARS

30YEARS

100YEARS

SHORT-TERM-Seasonal

INTERANNUAL-Multi-year

DECADE-TO-CENTURY

The future (2041-2060): where do the models agree?

Climate, Water and Drought:A continuum that crosses many time and space scales

30DAYS

1-4SEASONS

4

National/International

ObservationsModeling

Platforms:Satellites, ships, buoys, stations Climate models,

Earth systems

WaterWater

Understanding the science and impacts for climate adaptation and mitigation

TransportationTransportation

EnergyEnergy

Ecosystems and Biodiversity

Ecosystems and Biodiversity

Coastal SystemsCoastal Systems

AgricultureAgriculture

HealthHealth

SocietySociety

Understanding Climate Risk Management

Living MarineLiving Marine

National Security and Economy

National Security and Economy

Extreme EventsExtreme Events

Tropical StormsTropical Storms

Droughts/FloodsDroughts/Floods Tropics Tropics -- El NiEl Niñño, La Nio, La Niññaa

ExtratropicsExtratropics -- Jet PatternsJet Patterns

Climate Change

Climate Change

WeatherWeather Climate VariabilityClimate

Variability

Blocking

Change in weather event amplitude and frequency

Teleconnections

Change in climate event amplitude and frequency

Global change Climate Trends

Extremes – Climate Linkage

5

National Integrated Drought Information System

Public Law 109-430 (The NIDIS Act 2006)

““Enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a Enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to managing drought more proactive approach to managing drought risks and impactsrisks and impacts””

((www.drought.govwww.drought.gov))

“No systematic collection and analysis of social, environmental, and economic data focused on the impacts of drought within

the United States exists today” Western Governors Association 2004

“better informed and more timely drought-related decisions leading to reduced impacts and costs”

NIDIS Public Law 109-430-Three tasks

(1) provide an effective drought early warning system that—

(A) is a comprehensive system that collects and integrates information on the key indicators of drought in order to make

usable, reliable, and timely drought forecasts and assessments of drought, including assessments of the severity of drought conditions and impacts;

(B) communicates drought forecasts, drought conditions, and drought impacts on an ongoing basis to— (i) decision-makers at the Federal, regional, State, tribal, and local levels of government; (ii) the private sector; and (iii) the public

(C) includes timely (where possible real-time) data,information, and products that reflect local, regional, and State differences in drought conditions;

NIDIS Act PL109-430 continued……

(2) coordinate, and integrate as practicable, Federal research in support of a drought early warning system; and

(3) build upon existing forecasting and assessment programs and partnerships

NIDIS ComponentsNIDIS Components1. NIDIS Program Office2. U.S. Drought Portal

3. Climate Test Beds/DroughtIntegrating data and forecasts

4. Coping with DroughtApplications and Decision support Research

5. NIDIS Early Warning Information Systems

Design,Prototype, Implementation, Process sustainability

Governance Structure for System ImplementationNIDIS Executive Council

Co-chairs: Director, NOAA Climate Program Office (or designee) Director, National Drought Mitigation Center (or designee)

NIDIS Program OfficeNIDIS Program Implementation

Team (NPIT)Over 50 Federal, state, tribal and private

sector representatives

National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning System Design-Clearinghouse, Pilots,

and Implementation

NIDIS Technical Working GroupsCo-Chairs selected by NPIT

NIDIS Governance: Executive Council

NIDIS Program Office NIDIS Implementation Team: Over 50 Federal, state, tribal and private sector

representatives

NIDIS Technical Working Groups

Integrated Drought Information Systems Drought Early Warning System Design-Information clearinghouse, Pilots, and Implementation

Public AwarenessAnd Education

Engaging PreparednessCommunities

IntegratedMonitoring and

Forecasting

InterdisciplinaryResearch andApplications

U.S.Drought Portal



representatives



WATERSHED/URBAN/LOCAL




Forecasting


U.S.Drought Portal



representatives




REGIONAL




Forecasting


U.S.Drought Portal



representatives




REGIONAL

NATIONAL




Forecasting


U.S.Drought Portal

The NIDIS U.S. Drought Portal (www.drought.gov)

Key Clearinghouse Functions:Credible, Accessible, Timely Information onCredible, Accessible, Timely Information on

Where are drought conditions now?Does this event look like other events?

How is the drought affecting me?Will the drought continue?Where can I go for help?

Portlet example: NWS River Forecast Center

Ohio River Water Resources Outlook-Ecosystem recovery

Recovery

U.S. Drought Portal – Ag-Related Products & Links

Drought and Water Resources Federal Partnerships

Drought and Water Resources Federal Partnerships

Monitoring & ForecastingDrought and Flood Impacts

Assessments and Scenarios

Communication and Outreach Engaging Preparedness & Adaptation

Information Services in support of Adaptation

Drought and Water Resources ServicesDrought and Water Resources ServicesMission: Implement a dynamic, accessible, authoritativedrought information systemMission: Implement a dynamic, accessible, authoritativedrought information system

NOAA Produces: With Our Partners: Used By:Monitoring and Forecasting

U.S. Drought Monitor USDA, National Drought Mitigation Center

USDA, state and local governments

U.S. Soil Moisture Monitoring DOE, USDA (NRCS) USDA, agricultural producers

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index

USGS, NASA USAID (FEWS NET)

Crop Moisture Index USDA USDA, agricultural producers

Ensemble Water Supply Forecasts

USDA USBR, USACE, state water management agencies, local district water managers

Soil Moisture Anomaly Forecast USDA (NRCS) USDA, agricultural producers

USBR, state and local water providers, reservoir managers, Water Conservancy Districts

USBR, USGS, University of Washington, University of Colorado, University of Arizona, University of California-San Diego

Reconciling projections of future Colorado River stream flow in a changing climate

USBR, USACE, Water UtilitiesUSGS, USBR, USACEUSGS Circular 1331: Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective

NOAA Produces With Our Partners: Used By:Products Informing Risk Assessment and Management

Climate Change in Colorado: A Synthesis to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation

Colorado Water Conservation Board, University of Colorado, Western Water Assessment RISA

Colorado water planners, State Climatologists

Managing Threatened and Endangered Salmon in Low Water Conditions

USBR, CA Department of Fish and Game, CA Department of Water Resources, University of California Davis, Humboldt State University

NMFS, CA Department of Fish and Game, CA Department of Water Resources, Pacific Fisheries Management Council

Assessing Drought Indicators and Triggers

USGS, USDA (NRCS), Colorado Water Conservation Board, Colorado State University, Utah State University, University of Wyoming

USGS, USDA, USBR, water planners/providers, reservoir managers, State Climatologists

NIDIS Knowledge Assessment Workshops

Remote Sensing Contributions to Drought Monitoring, February 6-7, 2008, Boulder

NOAA, USGS, NASA, USDA, universities, state climatologists, state-local drought officials

Reconciling Projections of Future Colorado River Stream Flow, Sept 2007 La Jolla/November 2008 Las Vegas/February 2009 Seattle-ongoing

NOAA, USGS, CIG, WWA, etc

National Status of Drought Early Warning Systems, June 17-19, 2008, Kansas City

NOAA, USGS, USAID, USDA, USACE, NASA, tribes, universities, state government, water managers

NIDIS Knowledge Assessment Workshops

Remote Sensing Contributions to Drought Monitoring, February 6-7, 2008, Boulder

NOAA, USGS, NASA, USDA, universities, state climatologists, state-local drought officials

Reconciling Projections of Future Colorado River Stream Flow, Sept 2007 La Jolla/November 2008 Las Vegas/February 2009 Seattle-ongoing

NOAA, USGS, CIG, WWA, etc

National Status of Drought Early Warning Systems, June 17-19, 2008, Kansas City

NOAA, USGS, USAID, USDA, USACE, NASA, tribes, universities, state government, water managers

National Level

Drought, Climate change and Early Warning on Western Tribal Lands June 09

Centers for Disease Control-Drought and Public Health Report

Climate Change and Water Resources: Federal Perspectives (USGS 1331)

Drought, Climate change and Early Warning on Western Tribal Lands June 09

Centers for Disease Control-Drought and Public Health Report

Climate Change and Water Resources: Federal Perspectives (USGS 1331)

Applications and Decision Support Research

Ensemble Hydrologic Forecasts in Support of the NIDIS Pilots

Drought Index Evaluation and Implementation in a Geospatial Framework Linked to Hydrologic Data Web Services

Evaluating Adaptation Policies For Urban Water Resource Management Between Short-Term Drought Responses And Long-Term Planning

Integrating Socioeconomic Assessments to Build Community Resilience in Mitigating DroughtClimate Information System to Enhance Drought Preparedness by Underserved Farmers in the SE U.S.

Applications and Decision Support Research

Ensemble Hydrologic Forecasts in Support of the NIDIS Pilots

Drought Index Evaluation and Implementation in a Geospatial Framework Linked to Hydrologic Data Web Services

Evaluating Adaptation Policies For Urban Water Resource Management Between Short-Term Drought Responses And Long-Term Planning

Integrating Socioeconomic Assessments to Build Community Resilience in Mitigating DroughtClimate Information System to Enhance Drought Preparedness by Underserved Farmers in the SE U.S.

Modelling economic impacts of climate change (long-run) and drought (short-run)

Modelling economic impacts of climate change (long-run) and drought (short-run)

Long-run adjustment estimated with - Two stage optimisation for varying water allocation and salinity (distributions)Long-run

Reduce irrigated area, choose new crop mix, switch irrigation (12 technology/management options)

Short-runCrop areas fixed Deficit irrigate (provide less than full water requirement, accept reduced yield) – quadratic crop water/salinity production functionFallow area with irrigation capital in low allocation state of nature (provide no water, or maintenance water)

Very low water availability degrades irrigation planting capitalstock - Future yield loss for heavy deficit irrigation of perennials

Long-run adjustment estimated with - Two stage optimisation for varying water allocation and salinity (distributions)Long-run

Reduce irrigated area, choose new crop mix, switch irrigation (12 technology/management options)

Short-runCrop areas fixed Deficit irrigate (provide less than full water requirement, accept reduced yield) – quadratic crop water/salinity production functionFallow area with irrigation capital in low allocation state of nature (provide no water, or maintenance water)

Very low water availability degrades irrigation planting capitalstock - Future yield loss for heavy deficit irrigation of perennials

NIDIS Early Warning Systems Pilots –Blue-first round;yellow-second round of

prototypes/transferabilty

NIDIS Early Warning Systems Pilots –Blue-first round;yellow-second round of

prototypes/transferabilty

SoutheastSoutheast

Columbia Columbia

River River

BasinBasin

Lower CO Lower CO Basin Basin

Great Lakes Great Lakes

RegionRegion

+Texas+Texas

CaliforniaCalifornia

Upper Upper Missouri Missouri BasinBasin

Kremmling

Lake Powell

Lake Mead

Upper Basin down to Lake MeadUpper Basin down to Lake Mead••Coordinated reservoir operations: Coordinated reservoir operations: Low flow shortage triggering criteria Low flow shortage triggering criteria (Powell/Mead)(Powell/Mead)

••InterInter-- and Intraand Intra--basin transfers; Front basin transfers; Front range urbanrange urban--agricultureagriculture

••Ecosystem health/servicesEcosystem health/services

Drought information needs

Indicators, amangement triggers, response and impact avoidance

Declaring drought accurately (as possible)

Declaring drought early enough

Minimizing the duration of a declaration

Informing an equitable and reasonable responseWhere to go for help

ApplicationsResearch

PredictionMonitoring

ImpactMitigation

ProactivePlanning

ImprovedAdaptation

Integrating Tools:e.g. Drought Portal

Coordinating federal, state, and local drought‐related activities (e.g., within watersheds and states)

Identifying and transferring innovative strategies for drought risk assessment, communication and preparedness

NIDIS INFORMATION MANAGEMENT MODEL

Impetus for the Colorado Basin Interim Shortage Guidelines:

Short-termScheduling

Long-termPlanning

Mid-termOperations

Real-timeControl

Spatial Resolution/Time Horizon Operational Activity Decisions

Basin-wide over decades

Basin-wide over 1-2 years

Sub-basin over 4-6 weeks

Single project over 1-7 days

Operating Criteria and Guidelines

Annual Operating Plan

Water and PowerSchedules

Unit CommitmentEconomic Dispatch

Automatic Generationand Control

Interim Guidelines - A Robust SolutionInterim Guidelines - A Robust SolutionOperations specified through the full range of operation for Lake Powell and Lake MeadEncourage efficient and flexible water use and management in the Lower Basin through the Intentionally Created Surplus (ICS) mechanismStrategy for shortages in the Lower Basin2, including a provision for additional shortages if warrantedIn place for an interim period (through 2026) to gain valuable operational experienceBasin States agree to consult before resorting to litigation

Operations specified through the full range of operation for Lake Powell and Lake MeadEncourage efficient and flexible water use and management in the Lower Basin through the Intentionally Created Surplus (ICS) mechanismStrategy for shortages in the Lower Basin2, including a provision for additional shortages if warrantedIn place for an interim period (through 2026) to gain valuable operational experienceBasin States agree to consult before resorting to litigation

1. Issued in Record of Decision, dated December 13, 2007; available at http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/strategies.html

2. Mexico water deliveries are not directly effected by these guidelines

Assessment of gaps in present monitoring and forecasting systems within the basinAssimilation of existing drought-related indicators, triggers and trends into one accessible locationPromote interaction (existing websites, datasets) with the US Drought Portal to begin developing a Colorado Basin Drought Portal and information clearinghouseInitiate development of an Upper Colorado basin-specific drought monitor

Assessment of gaps in present monitoring and forecasting systems within the basinAssimilation of existing drought-related indicators, triggers and trends into one accessible locationPromote interaction (existing websites, datasets) with the US Drought Portal to begin developing a Colorado Basin Drought Portal and information clearinghouseInitiate development of an Upper Colorado basin-specific drought monitor

31

Pilot ImplementationUpper Colorado River Basin:

Analysis of the UCRB water demand: Characteristics, spatial patterns & assessment of potential vulnerabilities

Phase 1: UCRB water demand data assessmentConduct data inventory and develop a comprehensive database of past and present water demandIdentify spatial, temporal and qualitative data gaps

Phase 2:Choose an appropriate case study areaUsing GIS, classify water consumption per sector, types of uses,etc.Analyze spatial and temporal patterns in water demandIdentify consumption patterns by sectorIdentify potential vulnerabilities due to competitive water demand

Analysis of the UCRB water demand: Characteristics, spatial patterns & assessment of potential vulnerabilities

Phase 1: UCRB water demand data assessmentConduct data inventory and develop a comprehensive database of past and present water demandIdentify spatial, temporal and qualitative data gaps

Phase 2:Choose an appropriate case study areaUsing GIS, classify water consumption per sector, types of uses,etc.Analyze spatial and temporal patterns in water demandIdentify consumption patterns by sectorIdentify potential vulnerabilities due to competitive water demand


Water Demand

Use objective Climate Forecast System (CFS) output to improve seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP)

Daily CFS forecasts improve the ESPDynamical downscaling of the daily CFS forecasts improve the ESP

Introduce time-varying potential evapotranspiration into ESP water supply forecastsIs it possible to extract a new set of low-flow forecasts from the ESP?

Use objective Climate Forecast System (CFS) output to improve seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP)

Daily CFS forecasts improve the ESPDynamical downscaling of the daily CFS forecasts improve the ESP

Introduce time-varying potential evapotranspiration into ESP water supply forecastsIs it possible to extract a new set of low-flow forecasts from the ESP?


Water Supply Forecasting

Year 2 ActionsPrototyping/gaming: Given better data and

information coordination, would responses have been improved for past events? Assess:

1. Value of improved information using past conditions

2. Responses for projections/ scenarios(seasons, decadal, change)

3. Feedback on priorities (e.g. data gaps) to Executive Council

Year 2 ActionsPrototyping/gaming: Given better data and

information coordination, would responses have been improved for past events? Assess:

1. Value of improved information using past conditions

2. Responses for projections/ scenarios(seasons, decadal, change)

3. Feedback on priorities (e.g. data gaps) to Executive Council

Pilot ImplementationUpper Colorado River Basin

35

Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) Basin

Navigation

Flood control

Municipal

Power

Generationand cooling

Agriculture-irrigation

Instream&nearshoreecosystems and fisheries

National Geographic February 2008

Seager et al, 2007.

Yesterday Tomorrow

M Scheffer et al. Nature 461, 53-59 (2009) doi:10.1038/nature08227

Ecosystems may undergo a predictable sequence of self-organized spatial patterns as they approach a critical

transition

Native Nations in SW are major land managersNative Nations in SW are major land managers

6 million acres of land held in trust by the US for American Indian tribes and Alaska NativesReservations and tribal lands are >25% of land in AZConfronting same climate trends, need same info, but context is different

cultural ties to landscapefederal trust relationshipwidely variable capacity

6 million acres of land held in trust by the US for American Indian tribes and Alaska NativesReservations and tribal lands are >25% of land in AZConfronting same climate trends, need same info, but context is different

cultural ties to landscapefederal trust relationshipwidely variable capacity

Slide courtesy of Dr. Margaret Hiza, USGS

Current drought conditions in N. AZCurrent drought conditions in N. AZCornfield on Hopi reservation, summer 2009

Dry stock tank on Hopi reservation, summer 2009

Landscape changesLandscape changes

What does/will drought+warming mean for tribes in the SW?

What does/will drought+warming mean for tribes in the SW?

Threatens livelihoods (e.g. ranching) and vital cultural practices (e.g. dryland farming)Landscape changes (e.g. sand dune migrations) threaten habitation and infrastructureEcosystem changes mean access to traditional plants and animals may be limitedThroughout much of Indian Country, there is a lack of quality climate data to support adequate monitoring of climate conditions

data is needed for decision making (e.g. drought mitigation plans)

Threatens livelihoods (e.g. ranching) and vital cultural practices (e.g. dryland farming)Landscape changes (e.g. sand dune migrations) threaten habitation and infrastructureEcosystem changes mean access to traditional plants and animals may be limitedThroughout much of Indian Country, there is a lack of quality climate data to support adequate monitoring of climate conditions

data is needed for decision making (e.g. drought mitigation plans)

Challenges

Capacity?Capacity?

More Native American scientists (social, physical, natural) to work with and for their communities!More Native American scientists (social, physical, natural) to work with and for their communities!

Jolene Tallsalt RobertsonHydrologist, Navajo Nation

Department of Water Resources

Rachael NovakUS Environmental Protection Agency

Casey Kahn-ThornbrughAdjunct instructor of Geography

Tohono O’odham Community College&

PhD Candidate, UA School of Geography & Regional Development

Dr. Margaret HizaUS Geological Survey

Agriculture to Urban Water Transfers

Is this a wise policy? How should we assess third party impacts? What are the long term

land use implications of these transfers?

Agriculture to Urban Water Agriculture to Urban Water TransfersTransfers

Is this a wise policy? How should we assess Is this a wise policy? How should we assess third party impacts? third party impacts? What are the long term What are the long term

land use implications of these transfers?land use implications of these transfers?

Average Drought Average DroughtWater Use Urban 8.8 9.0 12.0 12.4 Agricultural 33.8 34.5 31.5 32.3 Environmental 36.9 21.2 37.0 21.3 TOTAL 79.5 64.7 80.5 66.0

Supplies Surface Water 65.1 43.5 65.0 43.4 Groundwater 12.5 15.8 12.7 16.0 Recycled & Desalted 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 TOTAL 77.9 59.6 78.1 59.8

Shortage 1.6 5.1 2.4 6.2

1995 2020

CaliforniaCalifornia’’s Water Uses Water Use(million(million--acre feet)acre feet)

III. Conduct Planning Evaluations

II. Relate to Planning Assumptions

I. Choose Climate Context

Instrumental Records: observed weather (T and P)

and runoff (Q)

Demand Variability

System Analysis, Evaluate Study Questions(related to Resource Management Objectives)

Operating ConstraintsSupply Variability

Paleoclimate Proxies: reconstructed runoff (Q)

statistical modeling watershed simulationPeriod-Statistics

Global Climate Projections: Representing various GCMs,forcings

Bias -correction, spatial resolution

Frequencies

Supply Variability: paleo, present and projected climate (Reclamation, NOAA, USGS, CO Basin States 2009)



III. Conduct Planning Evaluations

II. Relate to Planning Assumptions

I. Choose Climate Context

Instrumental Records: observed weather (T and P)

and runoff (Q)

Demand Variability

System Analysis, Evaluate Study Questions(related to Resource Management Objectives)

Operating ConstraintsSupply Variability


statistical modeling watershed simulationPeriod-Statistics

Global Climate Projections: Representing various GCMs,forcings

Bias -correction, spatial resolution

Frequencies





Global Climate Projections: Representing

various GCMs,forcingsbias-correction, spatial resolution

Instrumental Records: observed weather (T and P) and

runoff (Q)

Climate Services: “The timely production and delivery of useful climate data, information and knowledge to decisionmakers” (NRC, 2001)

VISION

“An informed society anticipating and responding to climate and its impacts”

Mission:

“to develop and deliver research, information, and services to enhance society's ability to understand, anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to climate variability and change”

Identify userrequirements

Conduct research

Develop applicationsIntegrate knowledge

and products

Deliver productsDisseminate information

Data quality control

MONITORING/FORECASTS

&

DEVELOPMENT(Assessments,int.products)

&

PROTOTYPING(Scenarios, Applications)

DELIVERY/MAINSTREAMING

The “Services” ChallengeThe “Services” Challenge

Relative status of informationSTATIC………………………EMERGENT/DYNAMIC

55

NIDIS VISION and GOALS

“If we don’t get NIDIS right, we can’t get a National Climate Service right”

Kelly Redmond, Western Regional Climate Center

6th Drought Monitor ForumAustin, Tx Oct. 7-8, 2009

NIDIS offers a framework for developingand mainstreaming information servicesto support adaptation strategies in achanging climate

Posted on the portal: www.drought.gov

To subscribe or contribute content, send an email to:

[email protected]

Posted on the portal: www.drought.gov

To subscribe or contribute content, send an email to:

[email protected]

57

NIDIS NewsletterNIDIS Newsletter

THANK YOUTHANK [email protected]

the national integrated drought information system · 2011-09-29 · national integrated drought...

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