mobile landscape

MOBILE LANDSCAPE

A snapshot for 2010

Why mobile? Why now?

Also, why “snapshot”?

A little context helps…

But First…

What is a computer?

What is a computer?

Input

What is a computer?

Input Processor / Storage

What is a computer?

Input Processor / Storage Output

What is a computer?

Input Processor / Storage Output

Think about that…

Computing Power

1995

Power Macintosh 7200/75

$1700

75MHz PowerPC 601 Processor

16 MB RAM

2010

iPhone 3Gs

$500

600MHz ARM Processor

256 MB RAM

Data Transfer Rates

My Facebook Page is 210K…

My Facebook Page is 210K

56 kilobits per second

30 seconds to download

56K Modem

My Facebook Page is 210K

56 kilobits per second

30 seconds to download

128 – 384 kilobits per second (moving)

4 to 8 seconds to download

56K Modem 3G Network

What’s that mean?

• Faster• Cheaper• Portable

What’s that mean?

The 5th Computing Cycle!

Um, what were the other four?

The 5th Computing Cycle!

Glad you asked!

The 5th Computing Cycle!

The 5 cycles of computing

The 5 cycles of computing

Mainframe Computing – 1960s

The 5 cycles of computing

Mainframe Computing – 1960s Mini Computing – 1970s

The 5 cycles of computing

Mainframe Computing – 1960s Mini Computing – 1970s Personal Computing – 1980s

The 5 cycles of computing

Mainframe Computing – 1960s Mini Computing – 1970s Personal Computing – 1980s Desktop Internet Computing – 1990s

The 5 cycles of computing

Mainframe Computing – 1960s Mini Computing – 1970s Personal Computing – 1980s Desktop Internet Computing – 1990s Mobile Internet Computing – 2000s

The 5 cycles of computing

Mainframe Computing – 1960s (1 Million units) Mini Computing – 1970s (10 Million units) Personal Computing – 1980s (100 Million units) Desktop Internet Computing – 1990s (1 Billion

units) Mobile Internet Computing – 2000s (10 Billion

units)

Reduce Usage Friction Via Better Processor Power + Improved User Interface + Smaller Form Factor + Expanded Services + Lower Prices = 10X More Devices

Why is this happening?

A Perfect Storm of Convergence

A Perfect Storm of Convergence 3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection

Point”

A Perfect Storm of Convergence 3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection

Point” Video Adoption Rates

A Perfect Storm of Convergence 3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection

Point” Video Adoption Rates VoIP Technology

A Perfect Storm of Convergence 3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection

Point” Video Adoption Rates VoIP Technology The Cloud

A Perfect Storm of Convergence 3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection

Point” Video Adoption Rates VoIP Technology The Cloud Social Networks as Platforms Connecting

Consumers

A Perfect Storm of Convergence 3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection

Point” Video Adoption Rates VoIP Technology The Cloud Social Networks as Platforms Connecting

Consumers Impressive Mobile Devices

“Regarding the pace of change, we believe more users will likely connect to the Internet via mobile devices than desktop PCs within 5 years” - Morgan Stanley

3G Networks

3G Defined

3G Defined

3G Stands for 3rd-generation. Analog cellular phones were the first generation. Digital phones marked the second generation (2G).

3G Defined

3G Stands for 3rd-generation. Analog cellular phones were the first generation. Digital phones marked the second generation (2G).

3G is loosely defined, but generally includes high data speeds, always-on data access, and greater voice capacity.

3G Defined

3G Stands for 3rd-generation. Analog cellular phones were the first generation. Digital phones marked the second generation (2G).

3G is loosely defined, but generally includes high data speeds, always-on data access, and greater voice capacity.

The high data speeds are possibly the most prominent feature, and certainly the most hyped. They enable such advanced features as live, streaming video.

2010 ‘Mainstream’ Inflection

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

8%11%

15%

21%

27%

33%

38%43%

Global 3G+ Penetration 2007 – 2014

Global 3G+ Penetra-tion

2010 ‘Mainstream’ Inflection

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

8%11%

15%

21%

27%

33%

38%43%

Global 3G+ Penetration 2007 – 2014

Global 3G+ Penetra-tion

3G Growth

3G Growth

Concentrated in Developed Markets

3G Growth

Concentrated in Developed Markets USA Now leading in Users & Innovation

3G Growth

Concentrated in Developed Markets USA Now leading in Users & Innovation Surpassed Japan Users in Q1 2009

3G Growth

Concentrated in Developed Markets USA Now leading in Users & Innovation Surpassed Japan Users in Q1 2009

103,110,000 US Subscribers 94,813,000 Japanese Subscribers

3G Growth

Concentrated in Developed Markets USA Now leading in Users & Innovation Surpassed Japan Users in Q1 2009

103,110,000 US Subscribers 94,813,000 Japanese Subscribers

Japanese Penetration = 87%

3G Growth

Concentrated in Developed Markets USA Now leading in Users & Innovation Surpassed Japan Users in Q1 2009

103,110,000 US Subscribers 94,813,000 Japanese Subscribers

Japanese Penetration = 87% US Penetration = 37%

Other Wireless Options…

Other Wireless Options…

GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold

Other Wireless Options…

GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments

Other Wireless Options…

GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments

Wi-Fi – 319MM chipsets sold in 2008

Other Wireless Options…

GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments

Wi-Fi – 319MM chipsets sold in 2008Estimate 60% of iPhone/iTouch usage may be on Wi-Fi providing a crucial (and 10X faster) offload to stressed 3G networks

Other Wireless Options…

GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments

Wi-Fi – 319MM chipsets sold in 2008Estimate 60% of iPhone/iTouch usage may be on Wi-Fi providing a crucial (and 10X faster) offload to stressed 3G networks

1.3B Bluetooth enabled devices shipped in 2008

Other Wireless Options…

GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments

Wi-Fi – 319MM chipsets sold in 2008Estimate 60% of iPhone/iTouch usage may be on Wi-Fi providing a crucial (and 10X faster) offload to stressed 3G networks

1.3B Bluetooth enabled devices shipped in 20082B+ Bluetooth devices currently in use

Video Adoption Rates

Consumers Have Voted

Consumers Have Voted

466MM YouTube Global Users (+35% Y/Y)73B Minutes of Video Watched (+70% Y/Y)

Consumers Have Voted

466MM YouTube Global Users (+35% Y/Y)73B Minutes of Video Watched (+70% Y/Y)

42 MM Hulu US Users (+77% Y/Y)

Consumers Have Voted

466MM YouTube Global Users (+35% Y/Y)73B Minutes of Video Watched (+70% Y/Y)

42 MM Hulu US Users (+77% Y/Y) 167 Online Video USA Users (+14% Y/Y)

109B Minutes of Video Watched (+169% Y/Y)

Consumers Have Voted

466MM YouTube Global Users (+35% Y/Y)73B Minutes of Video Watched (+70% Y/Y)

42 MM Hulu US Users (+77% Y/Y) 167 Online Video USA Users (+14% Y/Y)

109B Minutes of Video Watched (+169% Y/Y)

54 MM Global Internet-enabled set top boxes (Xbox360, Sony PS3, TiVo, Slingbox, Vudu, Roku…) (+59% Y/Y) – Transforming TVs into internet streaming / on-demand video terminals

Video Driving Growth

Video Driving Growth

Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times

Video Driving Growth

Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times

Mobile data traffic will increase a thousand-fold in half the time fixed data traffic took

Video Driving Growth

Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times

Mobile data traffic will increase a thousand-fold in half the time fixed data traffic tookThe internet grew from 1 petabyte to 1 exabyte in 14 years. Mobile will do the same in seven.

Video Driving Growth

Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times

Mobile data traffic will increase a thousand-fold in half the time fixed data traffic tookThe internet grew from 1 petabyte to 1 exabyte in 14 years. Mobile will do the same in seven.

Almost 64% of the world’s mobile traffic will be video by 2013

Video Driving Growth

Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times

Mobile data traffic will increase a thousand-fold in half the time fixed data traffic tookThe internet grew from 1 petabyte to 1 exabyte in 14 years. Mobile will do the same in seven.

Almost 64% of the world’s mobile traffic will be video by 2013Mobile video has the highest growth rate ever measured by the “Cisco VNI forecast”.

Video Driving Growth

Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop aircards will drive over 80% of global mobile traffic by 2013

Video Driving Growth

Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop aircards will drive over 80% of global mobile traffic by 2013A single high-end phone like the iPhone/Android generates more data traffic than 30 basic-feature cell phones. A laptop aircard generates more data traffic than 450 basic-feature cell phones.

Video Driving Growth

Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop aircards will drive over 80% of global mobile traffic by 2013A single high-end phone like the iPhone/Android generates more data traffic than 30 basic-feature cell phones. A laptop aircard generates more data traffic than 450 basic-feature cell phones.

Latin America will have the strongest growth of any region (166% CAGR)

VoIP (Voice Over IP)

Whither Skype?

Whither Skype?

If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier, it Would Be the Largest “Carrier” in the World

Whither Skype?

If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier, it Would Be the Largest “Carrier” in the World

521MM registered Users (+41% Y/Y)

Whither Skype?

If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier, it Would Be the Largest “Carrier” in the World

521MM registered Users (+41% Y/Y) 8% of Cross-Border Calling Minutes

Whither Skype?

If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier, it Would Be the Largest “Carrier” in the World

521MM registered Users (+41% Y/Y) 8% of Cross-Border Calling Minutes

Rank Company Type Region Subscribers

1 China Mobile Wireless China 493

2 Vodafone Wireless Europe 303

3 Telefonica/Moviles

Wireless Europe/LatAm 206

4 China Telecom Wireline China 194

5 America Movil Wireless LatAm 194

6 Telenor Wireless Europe/Asia 172

7 T-Mobile Wireless Europe/USA 150

The Cloud

The Growing Cloud…

The Growing Cloud…

Cloud computing is Internet- ("cloud-") based development and use of computer technology ("computing"). In concept, it is a paradigm shift whereby details are abstracted from the users who no longer need knowledge of, expertise in, or control over the technology infrastructure "in the cloud" that supports them. Cloud computing describes a new supplement, consumption and delivery model for IT services based on Internet, and it typically involves the provision of dynamically scalable and often virtualized resources as a service over the Internet.

The Growing Cloud…

Cloud computing is Internet- ("cloud-") based development and use of computer technology ("computing"). In concept, it is a paradigm shift whereby details blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah

You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive

You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me

You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live

Followed

You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live

Followed Some Popular Categories of Clouds

You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live

Followed Some Popular Categories of Clouds

Software as an “On Demand” Service (SaaS)

You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live

Followed Some Popular Categories of Clouds

Software as an “On Demand” Service (SaaS) Utility Computing

You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live

Followed Some Popular Categories of Clouds

Software as an “On Demand” Service (SaaS) Utility Computing Platforms (Google App Engine, MS Azure,

Amazon)

You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live

Followed Some Popular Categories of Clouds

Software as an “On Demand” Service (SaaS) Utility Computing Platforms (Google App Engine, MS Azure,

Amazon) My House has a Cloud

Social Networks as Platforms

Facebook = 500MM + Application Downloads

Category # of Apps % of Total Top 100 Apps’ MAUs (MM)

# of Apps with 1MM+ MAUs

Games 13,537 23 418 56

Lifestyles 4,778 8 42 8

Utilities 4,604 8 59 8

Education 2,279 4 66 5

Entertainment

2,015 3 76 11

Business 1,981 3 5 1

Sports 1,431 2 5 0

Just for Fun 400 1 44 10

Friends & Family

61 0 37 3

Overall 59,427 752 102

Facebook Mobile…

Facebook Mobile…

There are more than 65MM active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices

Facebook Mobile…

There are more than 65MM active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices.

People that use Facebook on their mobile devices are almost 50% more active on Facebook than non-mobile users.

Facebook Mobile…

There are more than 65MM active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices.

People that use Facebook on their mobile devices are almost 50% more active on Facebook than non-mobile users.

There are more than 180 mobile operators in 60 countries working to deploy and promote Facebook mobile products.

Facebook Mobile…

There are more than 65MM active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices.

People that use Facebook on their mobile devices are almost 50% more active on Facebook than non-mobile users.

There are more than 180 mobile operators in 60 countries working to deploy and promote Facebook mobile products.

Facebook is the Number One free iPhone App.

Facebook + Apple iPhone

Driving independent / overlapping innovation / Usage in Social Networking + Mobile Platforms

Facebook + Apple iPhone

Driving independent / overlapping innovation / Usage in Social Networking + Mobile Platforms

430MM Users(+137% Y/Y)

350K+ Apps500MM+

Downloads

57MM Users(+163% Y/Y)

100K+ Apps2B+

Downloads

Facebook iPhone/iTouch

SocialNetworkin

gMobile

Impressive Mobile Devices

Impressive Mobile Devices

“Apple’s iPhone + iTouch + App Store Launches Over the Past 2.5 Years Created the Spark for Mobile Internet Liftoff as Microsoft’s Launch of Windows 3.0 did for the PC in 1990 and the Netscape Browser (and its IPO) did for the desktop Internet in 1995” - Morgan Stanley

How Big?

How Big?

Fastest New Tech Device / Ecosystem Ramp in History

How Big?

Fastest New Tech Device / Ecosystem Ramp in HistoryGreat UI + Developer Tools + Hardware + Distribution + Powerful Connectivity (3G + WiFi)Nintendo Wii, Nintendo DS, Sony PSP, Apple iPod, RIM Blackberry

How Big?

Fastest New Tech Device / Ecosystem Ramp in HistoryGreat UI + Developer Tools + Hardware + Distribution + Powerful Connectivity (3G + WiFi)Nintendo Wii, Nintendo DS, Sony PSP, Apple iPod, RIM Blackberry

Apple iPhone / iTouch = 2B App Downloads

How Big?

Fastest New Tech Device / Ecosystem Ramp in HistoryGreat UI + Developer Tools + Hardware + Distribution + Powerful Connectivity (3G + WiFi)Nintendo Wii, Nintendo DS, Sony PSP, Apple iPod, RIM Blackberry

Apple iPhone / iTouch = 2B App DownloadsAbout 35 per UserGames, Books, Entertainment Lead

How Big?

Category # of Apps (000s)

% of Total

# of Paid Apps (000s)

Paid as % of Category Total

Games 22.6 19.1% 15.7 69%

Entertainment

17.2 14.6 12.5 72

Books 14.8 12.5 13.5 91

Travel 7.9 6.7 7.1 89

Utilities 7.7 6.5 5.5 71

Education 7.7 6.5 6.4 83

Lifestyle 6.7 5.6 4.7 71

Reference 4.7 4.0 3.9 82

Music 4.0 3.4 2.2 56

Sports 3.7 3.1 2.8 76

Total 118.4 89.1 75%

Top Free Apps

Name Category Description

Facebook Social Networking

Mobile front end to site.

Google Earth Travel View aerial maps of city/area. Touch zoom.

Pandora Music Customized internet radio stations.

Tap Tap Revenge

Games Music game. Includes online play.

Shazam Music IDs artist/song title/album via audio input.

Pac-Man Lite Games 3D remake using touch controls.

Backgrounds Entertainment iPhone backgrounds for your BG library.

Touch Hockey Games Interactive air hockey game. (online)

Labyrinth Lite Games Tilt control puzzle game.

Flashlight Utilities Fills the screen with a bright light.

iPhone + Android Mobile Internet Usage Much Higher than Shipment Share

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%HTML Mobile Page Views Share (Net Applications)

Mobile Internet + Apps Usage (AdMob)

iPhone + Android Mobile Internet Usage Much Higher than Shipment Share

iPho

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%HTML Mobile Page Views Share (Net Applications)

Mobile Internet + Apps Usage (AdMob)

High Probability of On-Going Share Gains Based on Consumer Voting

Most / Best Apps Win!

iPhone App Store

Android App Market

Blackberry App World

Windows Mobile Market

Launch Date 7/08 10/08 4/09 Q2/10 (E)

Number of Apps

100K+ 20K 3.5K --

Apps Downloaded

2B+ 50MM -- --

Billing System

iTunes Google Checkout

PayPal Carrier/Credit Card

Developer Share

70% 70% 80% 70%

Yeah, so?

“This is a bit like looking at the emergence of the railroads in the 1800s and saying, ‘I have no interest in going to Chicago. What’s the big Deal?’” - Joshua Michele-Ross

Yeah, so?

Coordination Replaces Planning

Coordination Replaces Planning

Real-time Communications (Twitter)

Coordination Replaces Planning

Real-time Communications (Twitter) Just-in-Time Coordination over planning

Coordination Replaces Planning

Real-time Communications (Twitter) Just-in-Time Coordination over planning More efficient, more flexible

Coordination Replaces Planning

Real-time Communications (Twitter) Just-in-Time Coordination over planning More efficient, more flexible Think Army, “Situation at hand”

Coordination Replaces Planning

Real-time Communications (Twitter) Just-in-Time Coordination over planning More efficient, more flexible Think Army, “Situation at hand” Spontaneous gathering, loosely

coordinated agents in constant contact

Coordination Replaces Planning

Real-time Communications (Twitter) Just-in-Time Coordination over planning More efficient, more flexible Think Army, “Situation at hand” Spontaneous gathering, loosely

coordinated agents in constant contact Increased role for employees

More than Phones & Computers

More than Phones & Computers

Data Gathering devices

More than Phones & Computers

Data Gathering devices Location Aware (GPS), Motion Aware

(Accelerometer), Directionally Aware (Compass), Vsiually Aware (Camera), Sonically Aware (Microphone), Always-Connected handheld Computer.

More than Phones & Computers

Data Gathering devices Location Aware (GPS), Motion Aware

(Accelerometer), Directionally Aware (Compass), Vsiually Aware (Camera), Sonically Aware (Microphone), Always-Connected handheld Computer.

Environmental Sensor

More than Phones & Computers

Data Gathering devices Location Aware (GPS), Motion Aware

(Accelerometer), Directionally Aware (Compass), Vsiually Aware (Camera), Sonically Aware (Microphone), Always-Connected handheld Computer.

Environmental Sensor Not only connected, but actively

accepting input

More than Phones & Computers

Data Gathering devices Location Aware (GPS), Motion Aware

(Accelerometer), Directionally Aware (Compass), Vsiually Aware (Camera), Sonically Aware (Microphone), Always-Connected handheld Computer.

Environmental Sensor Not only connected, but actively

accepting input Track our own behavior (Monitor our

health)

The New Laptop

The New Laptop

Apple (and Android) opening up Hardware

The New Laptop

Apple (and Android) opening up Hardware

Keyboards and palm sized projectors coming soon

The New Laptop

Apple (and Android) opening up Hardware

Keyboards and palm sized projectors coming soon

Increases in processing power and storage capacity

The New Laptop

Apple (and Android) opening up Hardware

Keyboards and palm sized projectors coming soon

Increases in processing power and storage capacity

Mobile devices will become the de facto standard gear for knowledge work

The New Marketplace

The New Marketplace

The Long Tail (Micropayments)

The New Marketplace

The Long Tail (Micropayments) The moment of need or impulse

The New Marketplace

The Long Tail (Micropayments) The moment of need or impulse Empowered Customers

The New Marketplace

The Long Tail (Micropayments) The moment of need or impulse Empowered Customers Peer-to-Peer exchanges

Know This Person

It’s You.

Know This Person