information and communication technologies as drivers of social unrest

INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES AS DRIVERS OF SOCIAL UNREST

Martha Garcia-Murillo (Syracuse University)

Marcio Wohlers (State University of Campinas – UNICAMP)

Moinul Zaber (Carnegie Mellon University doctoral student)

A STORY

MGARCIAM@SYR.EDUZABER_26@YAHOO.COM

MARCIO.WOHLERS@GMAIL.COM

A TENSION

Freedom of expression

vs Order and

Security

DEFINING SOCIAL UNREST

An expression of collective dissatisfaction where the intensity of the protest depends

on the extent of the level and nature of social discontent (Jovanović, Renn, and

Schröter, 2012).

ROLE OF ICTS

TECHNOLOGY AND SOCIAL UNREST

CASTELLS (2013) CHARACTERISTICS OF SM

(i) the movements are networked using the Internet and wireless devices that allow for mass self-communication with powerful images;

(ii) these are horizontal (iii) triggered by a spark (iv) the movements become viral (v) the conversion of indignation to an autonomous entity usually happens through decisions taken in a space of autonomy;

(vi) they are self-reflexive and learning movements that constantly questioning what they want, and the governance structure that can help them avoid the pitfalls of failed movements;

(vii) generally they are nonviolent movementsMGARCIAM@SYR.EDU

ZABER_26@YAHOO.COM

SOCIAL UNREST DYNAMICS

FEAR precautionary behaviors such as withdrawal

results in a delay between the problem and the reaction “ silent majority” ……ANGER acts as a trigger to action.

To overcome fear is necessary to build a protected space

to “mass individuals”There are the emotional poles that push individuals towards action and subsequently these emotions can evolve into collective action.

Mass individuals

Silent majority

CONTRIBUTING FACTORSICTs

GDP per capita

Education

Governance

Social Unrest

Four groups of causes that can lead people to take to the streets Pappas and O’Malley (2014) :• Economic• Cultural• Socio-ideological • State related.

MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS

Less than 69.4

INTERNET USERS

GDP PER CAPITA

EDUCATION (LITERACY RATE)

DATA World Development Indicators International Social Science Resource, produced by Witold J. Henisz, who constructed the The Political Constraint Index Dataset (POLCON III), ,where POLCON = 0 means minimum constraint or most hazardous political environment, and POLCON = 1 means maximum constraint or most stable political environment. University of Illinois Urbana-Champagne which provides the dependent variable, protest, which represents a weighted conflict index taken from its Civil Unrest Data.

Where i indicates countries, t indicates years, is a binary variable indicating regulatory decision (yes = 1, no = 0), The independent variables. They are: Fixed Broadband Subscribers by 100 pop (fixed_bb100), GDP per Capita PPP (gdppercapPPP), Political Condition Index (polconiii), Low and Order Situation (law_order), Population (pop), and Mobile Subscribers (mobile_subscribers).

CONTRIBUTING FACTORSICTs

GDP per capita

Education

Governance

Social Unrest

RESULTS

Fixed Broadband Subscribers per

100 hab.

gdppercapPPP Law and Order Situation

Mobile Subscribers

CONCLUSIONS• This paper examines the relationship between ICT condition and social unrest. • Our main hypothesis is: as ICTs have decreased the transaction cost of information gathering and distribution, more people are getting enabled to join in team to protest against the prevailing conditions.• We find a positive and significant impact of ICTs and social unrest.• However, law and order also plays a vital role on social unrest.

CONCLUSIONS• The economic circumstances are important but are not the only thing.• Education still a mystery

Connectivity without good governance is a recipe for disaster

THANK YOU• Martha Garcia-Murillo

mgarciam@syr.edu

• Marcio Wohlersmarcio.wohlers@gmail.com

• Moinul Zaber zaber_26@yahoo.com

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