indonesia‟s role in global climate change mitigation · forests and fire • conserving forests...

Indonesia Update 2011

Indonesia‟s role

in global climate change mitigation

Frank JotzoCentre for Climate Economics and Policy (ccep.anu.edu.au)

Crawford School of Economics and Government

Australian National University

Source: Steffen “The critical decade”

De-carbonizing the world economy

Source: Australian Treasury (2011)

Copenhagen Accord / Cancun Agreements

Indonesia on the global stage for climate change

UN, G20, bilateral

The top greenhouse gas emitters

Data: WRI CAIT 8.0 database

Indonesia illustrative greenhouse gas

emissions trajectories

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Fossil fuel emissions

Mt CO2/yr

Forestry and peat emissions

2 tons per person

business-as-usual?

Indonesia’s emissions target

26% reduction below business-as-usual at 2020, unilaterally

…up to 41% reduction with international assistance

(compared to what „business as usual‟ baseline?)

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Deforestation, peat, land management

Palm oil conversion overwhelming …but:

• Protecting peatlands

• Establishing plantations

on degraded lands

• Increasing yields

• Better management of

forests and fire

• Conserving forests

(biodiversity,

local environmental services)

Data: FAOstat

Sustainable land use

Carbon emissions

Managing fire

(peatlands, haze)

Local dev’tand

livelihoods

Central govt– local govt

relations

Palm oil productivity

Using degraded land not forest

Protecting watersheds, biodiversity

Incentives

Institutions

Practice

Policy

RAN-GRK National Action Plan for Greenhouse

Gas Emissions Reductions

• government initiated and financed programs

• mostly for forests/land

Land conversion moratorium

• A compromise, but sends a signal

Norway $1b promise

• Projects by AusAID and others

REDD+ agency

Energy

Energy efficiency; geothermal, hydro, gas

Policies, institutions? Investment?

A carbon tax could increase growth,

and reduce poverty

Source: Indonesia Ministry of Finance Green Paper on climate change, 2009

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“7 / 26”

Green Growth vs Brown Growth

“pro-poor, pro-growth,

pro-jobs and pro-environment”

Political economy and competition

between institutions

BappenasPresident‟s

office

Ministry of Environment

Ministry of Finance

Ministry of Forestry

Ministry of Energy

Local governments

Industry

NGOs

UN, G20

Donors

Will anything actually be done?

What role for aid?

Fast-track climate finance

• global $10b per year to developing countries, 2010-12

Capacity building

• central and local governments, civil society

Demonstration projects

• need to take risks

What role for markets?

Indonesia‟s potential supply: (say) 15% of emissions

300 million tons @ $25 = $ 7.5 billion/year

• Demand: Australia emissions gap >50 million tons @2020?

• Japan, Korea, California, NZ….

Needed:

emissions monitoring

()credible baseline at national (or provincial / sectoral) level

? effective policy instruments and institutions

? payment distribution to local level, development programs

Investment in emissions reductions:

a ‘club’ of nations with compatible interests?

An illustrative business as usual scenario

Emissions data: Indonesia SNC; projections: author‟s assumptions

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2000 2005 2010 BAU

2015 BAU

2020 BAU

2020 target

Peat Fire

LUCF

Waste

Agiculture

Industry

Energy

-26%

-41%