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IMPACT
3-5th November 2004 4th IMPACT Project WorkshopZaragoza
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Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
IMPACTInvestigation of Extreme Flood Processes And Uncertainty
IMPACT
3-5th November 2004 4th IMPACT Project WorkshopZaragoza
2
Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
IMPACTInvestigation of ExtreMe Flood Processes And UnCertainTy
IMPACT
3-5th November 2004 4th IMPACT Project WorkshopZaragoza
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Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
IMPACTInvestigation of Extreme Flood Processes and Uncertainty
An overview
3-5th November 2004 4th IMPACT Project WorkshopZaragoza
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
What is IMPACT?
• A research programme supported by the European Commission under the fifth framework programme and contributing to the implementation of the Generic Activity on Natural and Technological Hazards within the Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development Programme
• Some (FC cost)partners are also supported through national funding (e.g. HR Wallingford via the UK Defra / EA joint research programme; SWECO via Norwegian National Dam safety project etc.)
3-5th November 2004 4th IMPACT Project WorkshopZaragoza
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
What is IMPACT?
• A 3 year research programme:– started Dec 2001;– ends Nov 2004
• A Project comprising 11 partners from 10 countries
[See brochure, CD ROMS from previous workshops and website][www.impact-project.net]
3-5th November 2004 4th IMPACT Project WorkshopZaragoza
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
The problem to be solved...
“The assessment and reduction of risks from extreme flooding caused by natural events or the failure of dams and flood defence structures”
(Structures = dams, weirs, sluices, flood embankments, dikes, tailings dams etc.)
3-5th November 2004 4th IMPACT Project WorkshopZaragoza
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
The problem to be solved...
“To manage and minimise (flood) risks effectively it is necessary to be able to identify hazards and vulnerability in a consistent and reliable manner, to have good knowledge of structure behaviour in emergency situations, and to understand the potential consequences of failure in order to allow effective contingency planning for public safety”
3-5th November 2004 4th IMPACT Project WorkshopZaragoza
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Scientific Objectives & Approach
Objectives are to:
• Advance scientific knowledge / understanding
• Develop predictive tools / methods
in five areas:
3-5th November 2004 4th IMPACT Project WorkshopZaragoza
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Scientific Objectives & Approach
• Breaching of embankments (dams & flood defences) (WP2)
• Flood propagation through valley and urban areas (WP3)
• Movement of sediment (WP4)
• Quantifying risk and uncertainty (WP5)
• Geophysics and field data collection (WP6)
Based upon recommendations from CADAM and UK RTDwww.hrwallingford.co.uk/projects/CADAM
IMPACT
3-5th November 2004 4th IMPACT Project WorkshopZaragoza
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Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
CADAM
Concerted Action on Dambreak Modelling
3-5th November 2004 4th IMPACT Project WorkshopZaragoza
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
CADAM
• Concerted Action means…
• Integration of partners existing R&D programme
• Focus on numerical modelling of dambreak shifting on to include breach, sediments, risk assessment
• Identification of R&D needs feeding into creation of European Commission FP5 work programme
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Four workshops in 2 yearscovering a range of dambreak related topics:
CADAM
Ua
downstream
upstream
Oblique bore
downstream
0
20
40
60
80
0 10 20 30 40 50x [m]
t [s]
1
2
3
4
5
0
20
40
60
80
0 10 20 30 40 50x [m]
t [s]
1
2
3
4
6
5
3-5th November 2004 4th IMPACT Project WorkshopZaragoza
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
CADAM - Outputs
• 4 workshops covering range of dambreak topics
• Proceedings online
• Guidance document: “Dambreak modelling guidelines and best practice”
• Project Report (detailed findings and recommended R&D)
– Total of 31 specific conclusions
• http://www.hrwallingford.co.uk/projects/CADAM/CADAM/index.html
3-5th November 2004 4th IMPACT Project WorkshopZaragoza
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
3-5th November 2004 4th IMPACT Project WorkshopZaragoza
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Scientific Objectives & Approach
Sediment Movement
[WP4]
FloodPropagation
[WP3]
Breach Formation
[WP2]
Risk & uncertaintyAssessment of individual and
combined uncertainty
Implications for End User Applications
[WP5]
Geophysics / Field Data
[WP6]
3-5th November 2004 4th IMPACT Project WorkshopZaragoza
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Scientific Objectives & Approach
Generic approach is via a combination of:
• Fieldwork
• Laboratory physical modelling
• Desk analysis
• Computational modelling
including a focus upon assessment of process uncertainty in all areas
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Benefits of the IMPACT Project
Reduction of risk through:
• improved understanding of extreme processes, hence improved understanding of associated risks to the public, environment, assets etc.
• improved reliability of modelling tools
• improved understanding of modelling tools and results, leading to more appropriate application of predictions (e.g. emergency planning)
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Some Key Aspects of Implementation
The Overall Approach
• To keep a focus on overall objectives and application by end users
• To complement and benefit from other National & International R&D (interaction with additional organisations wherever possible)
• End user take up / application of results– Deliverables to be used / integrated into national or
organisation specific programmes
3-5th November 2004 4th IMPACT Project WorkshopZaragoza
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Conclusions / Deliverables
• (Draft) summary papers in notes
• WP2 Breach formation:
– Understanding the breach formation process
– Existing models; development of models; performance of models
– Breach case study data; factors affecting breach location
3-5th November 2004 4th IMPACT Project WorkshopZaragoza
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Conclusions / Deliverables
• WP3: Flood Propagation:
– Understanding flow behaviour in urban areas
– Comparing different modelling approaches for simulating urban flooding
– Improving the accuracy of flood propagation modelling in natural topographies
3-5th November 2004 4th IMPACT Project WorkshopZaragoza
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Conclusions / Deliverables
• WP4: Sediment Movement
– Understanding and modelling near field sediment movement; our ability to accurately predict flood and sediment; new approaches
– Understanding and modelling far field sediment movement; our ability to accurately predict flood and sediment; new approaches
3-5th November 2004 4th IMPACT Project WorkshopZaragoza
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Conclusions / Deliverables
• WP5: Uncertainty modelling
– Understanding uncertainty within modelling
– Simple approach to assessing magnitude of uncertainty
– Application to case study
– Implications for end users of flood modelling data
3-5th November 2004 4th IMPACT Project WorkshopZaragoza
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Conclusions / Deliverables
• WP6: Geophysics and field data
– Assessing performance of geophysical investigation techniques for assessing embankment integrity
– Development of a rapid assessment technique for rapid, economical assessment of long lengths of flood defence embankment
– Collection of field data relating to embankment failure; data relating to embankment condition, structure and failure process
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
Immediate Implementation...
• 4th IMPACT Workshop hosted here at Zaragoza
• Wed am Tous case study - propagation modelling• Wed pm Uncertainty / Workshops
• Thur Overview of each work packageKey results, conclusions
• Fri am Case study applications; Discussion & review; Overall conclusions
• [Fri pm IMPACT team meeting]
____________
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
12 Welcome / Introduction Francisco Alcrudo /Mark Morris
09:30
13 The IMPACT ProjectProject aims and objectives
Mark Morris 09:45
14 Theme Area 2 : Breach FormationSpecific objectives & deliverablesWork, results, conclusions & deliverablesImplications for breach modelling and end usersDiscussion
Mark MorrisKjetil Vaskinn
Greg Hanson(TBC)..........
10:00
15 Tea / Coffee break 11:0016 Theme Area 3 : Flood propagation
Specific objectives & deliverablesWork, results, conclusions & deliverablesImplications for flood modelling and end usersDiscussion
Francisco Alcrudo 11:30
17 Theme Area 4 : Sediment movementSpecific objectives & deliverablesWork, results, conclusions & deliverablesImplications for sediment modelling and endusersDiscussion
Yves ZechSandra Soares
Denis Aelbrecht...........
12:30
18 Lunch 13:30
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
18 Lunch 13:3019 Theme Area 5 : Process Uncertainty
Specific objectives & deliverablesReview and Analysis of modelling results(Breach & Flood Propagation)Conclusions & deliverablesImplications for modelling and end usersDiscussion
Mark MorrisFrancisco Alcrudo
Des Hartford........
15:00
20 Tea / Coffee break 16:0021 Theme Area 6 : Geophysics and Field Data
Specific objectives & deliverablesWork, results, conclusions & deliverablesImplications for breach modelling and end usersDiscussion
Zuzana BoukalovaSandy Toth
Greg Hanson(TBC)....
16:30
Close Francisco Alcrudo 17:3022 Evening dinner 20:30
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
23 Conclusions from Flood Propagation CaseStudy
Conclusions from workshop Sessions 9 & 12 -modelling work and results (inc uncertainty)Conclusions and implications for end users
Francisco Alcrudo;Guido Testa; YvesZech; Sandra Soares;Mark Morris
9:30
24 Case study: Lake Ha!Ha!Specific objectives & deliverablesWork, results, conclusions & deliverablesImplications for modelling and end usersDiscussion
Yves ZechSandra Soares
Mervyn Bramley............
10:00
25 Tea / Coffee break 10:45
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IMPACTInvestigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty
25 Tea / Coffee break 10:45
26 Discussion & Review:Key conclusions and findings;
Implications for industry
Open discussion11:15
27 International researchCurrent needs; exploitation of IMPACT by industryExisting and planned RTD within this field
Des Hartford (TBC)
Open discussion
12:00
Workshop close Francisco AlcrudoMark Morris
Paul Samuels..............
12:30–
13:00Lunch 13:00
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