ifs 5.34 global & national population-education trend benchmarking aromar revi taru march 2007

IFs 5.34 Global & National Population-Education Trend

Benchmarking

Aromar ReviTARU

March 2007

Global Population Cohorts by Education Level (2050)

-400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400Population (millions)

No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary

400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

Source: IFs 5.34, 2007; TARU analysis,

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-29

30-3435-39

40-4445-49

50-5455-59

60-6465-6970-74

75-7980-84

84-8990-9495-99

Background & Methodology

• This analysis is based on the IFs 5.34 (Jan 2007) base run and seeks to:• Compare global and select national trends over the 2000-

2100 period• Test whether the outcomes seem plausible given past trends

and a broad understanding of the dynamics• Explore strategic and policy implications and key directions

for future scenario building• Enable a clearer visualization of dynamic trends than the

current implementation of IFs enables• The primary emphasis is on a comparison of India and China,

but other major global and emerging economic ‘powers’ are also explored to provide context

• Educational attainment is simulated using a 22-cohort component population model and four levels of female and male attainment: no education (incomplete education including children under 14); primary, secondary and tertiary education

• A graphs are scaled similarly to provide a visual basis for comparison

• Caveat: the model results are only indicative. Some outcomes may be model ‘arefacts’ rather than real world dynamics.

Global Trends (2000-2100)

Global Population cohorts by Education (2000)

Incomplete education (60%); Primary (25%), Secondary (11%); Tertiary (4%). Gender asymmetry.

400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Incomplete education (56%); Primary (27%), Secondary (13%); Tertiary (4%).

400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

400 300 200 100 10 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

400 30 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

400 30 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

400 300 200 100 100 200 300 40MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Global Changes in Working & Dependant Population

Slow decline in child population. Peaking of population in working ages ~ 2050. Large growth in the elderly.

Global: Changes in Working & Dependant Population (2000-2100)

10,000

12,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100

Children (0-14) Young Adults (15-19) Potential workers (20 to 64) Elderly (> 65)

Source: IFs 5.34, 2007, TARU analysis, 2007

Global Population Structure by Educational Status

Decline in incomplete education, strong growth of primary education, high growth of tertiary education over the century

Global: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

10,000

12,000

2000 20052010 20152020 2025 20302035 20402045 2050 20552060 20652070 2075 20802085 20902095 2100Years

Incomplete Primary Secondary Tertiary Source: IFs 5.34, 2007, TARU analysis, 2007

Global Population trajectories by Educational status

Three cross-overs in the transition to a global knowledge society:~2050; ~2065 and ~2085

Global: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Incomplete Primary Secondary TertiarySource: IFs 5.34, 2007, TARU analysis, 2007

Global Population with Only Primary Education (2000-2100)

India, China, Africa and Latin America have large populations with only a primary education

Share of Global Population with Only Primary Education (2000-2100)

Rest of the World

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

lation

Rest of the World India China USA Brazil EU25 Russia Japan

Global Population with Only Secondary Education (2000-2100)

Chindia will have the largest secondary school educated population. China will have the largest secondary school educated population in the world

Share of Global Population with Only Secondary Education (2000-2100)

Rest of the World

EU25Brazil

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

lation

Rest of the World India China USA EU25 Brazil Russia Japan

Global Population with Tertiary Education (2000-2100)

India, China, US and EU will have the largest Tertiary educated populations, slightly less than the Rest of the World

Share of Global Population with Tertiary Education (2000-2100)

Rest of the World

ChinaUSA

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

lation

Rest of the World India China USA EU25 Japan Brazil Russia

National Populations with Only Primary Education (2000-2100)

Chindia will have up to 1 billion people with only a primary education – limiting formal knowledge intensive occupations and underscoring the

importance of traditional knowledge

National Populations with Only Primary Education (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

lation

India China USA EU25 Japan Russia Brazil

National Populations with Only Secondary Education (2000-2100)

China dominates with its secondary educated population till late century, followed by steady Indian growth, EU and Brazil expansion and more or less

steady US population

National Populations with Only Secondary Education (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

lation

National Populations with Tertiary Education (2000-2100)

India and China in close competition as lead knowledge powers followed by US and EU

National Populations with Tertiary Education (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

lation

Global Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) I

1. Global population peaks at ~ 10 billion in 2070, structure driven largely by DC growth trends, continue into the 22nd century

2. Slow decline in global child population over the century, with a significant decline in high-income countries

3. Population in the working age: 20 to 65 peaks pre-2050 implying potential changes in retirement age, nature of work and the inter-generational social compact that underwrote the 20th century western European welfare state

4. With much of the working population of Asian origin, with some from Africa and Latin America, immigration to address the ‘greying’ of the OECD workforce may be significant, unless shifts to a highly productive robotic society ensues

5. Russia will be severely challenged in maintaining its territorial integrity given its population and huge differentials across the border with China in the east

6. Japan will be rather quickly eclipsed as a manufacturing power, potentially changing the geo-political character of East Asia and US alliances and military umbrella over the Pacific

7. Densities in much of Asia rapidly become unsustainable without dramatic changes in ecopotential, technology, management and institutional regimes

8. Large working populations in Asia could imply that the wage arbitrage potential with other parts of the world will continue as will manufacturing dominance to cater to domestic markets and export demand.

9. This combined with expected savings rate differentials implies the development of Asian capitalism. A key question will be whether it will have different characteristics to the last 20 years of western capitalism?

Global Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) II

10.Only 50 percent of the global population would have completed secondary education and above by the end of the 21st century

11.Apart from the large and increasingly aged illiterate population, over a billion people will have only a primary education. The livelihood implications of this in an emerging global economy are staggering.

12.This implies the need for a new link between traditional and formal knowledge generating and transmission systems - a crucial area of sociological and pedagogical research. The linkage with resource-based sustainable livelihoods in an increasingly uncertain world may be important.

13.This implies that primary and secondary education will continue to be challenges in the 21st century, but with a shifting geographic focus towards Asia, Africa & Latin America

14.China will have the largest secondary-level educated population till late century, followed closely by steady Indian growth, some EU and Brazil expansion and a more or less steady US population

15.These may therefore, be the major manufacturing powers of the 21st century, if dramatic shifts in current modes of industrial production do not take place

16.Key questions include the penetration and importance of the ‘knowledge economy’ to the livelihoods and productivity of these populations; will these groups become a large urban underclass and the implication of that for future social stability, the political role of the middle class and the future of capitalism?

Global Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) III

18.A rapid growth in tertiary education esp. in India and China, and a continuing deepening in the US and the EU, implying a massive growth in the demand for universities and the creation of new models of delivery

19.The OECD countries may be the first in human history to have more than half of their population with a Tertiary education

20.This implies considerable changes in the definition, length, content, mechanism and media of delivery of formal education. Unclear role of communities, the state and corporations in this transition

21.India and China will be in close demographic competition as lead knowledge powers followed by US and EU. The critical differentiating factors may therefore include the quality of education, innovation and institutions

22.India seems to have a slight edge because of a larger current institutional base esp. in technical education, but China may catch up faster because of more effective execution, greater urbanisation and a more educated population base. The real turnover, as for economic power will be c. 2030.

23.Is this the real battle for comparative advantage in the global knowledge economy of the 21st century? Alliances between China, India, the US and EU and the role of large corporations in this game are important open questions.

24.Nevertheless, the language and style of hegemony in the knowledge economy of the 21st century will be clearly different from the 20th

China Trends (2000-2100)

China: Population cohorts by Education (2000)

Incomplete education (54%); Primary (33%), Secondary (12%);

Tertiary (2%).

China: Population Cohorts by Education Level (2000)

-100 -50 0 50 100Population (millions)

100 50 50 100MALE FEMALE

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

50-5455-59

65-6970-74

90-9495-99

Tertiary (2%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (3%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (4%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (5%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (6%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (7%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (9%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (11%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (12%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (14%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (16%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (18%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (20%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (23%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (25%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (27%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (29%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (32%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (34%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (36%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

China Changes in Working & Dependant Population

Population peaks ~ 2050. Secular decline in child population. Working population peaks ~2020.

China: Changes in Working & Dependant Population (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100

China Population Structure by Educational Status

Secular decline in illiteracy. Massive growth in tertiary

education

China: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20502055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

China Population trajectories by Educational status

Massive growth in tertiary education, overtakes secondary in ~2075 and

primary in ~2085

China: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

China Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) I

• China’s population is expected to peak c. 2050 at about 1.5 billion. The population in working ages peaks c. 2020 (check projections). China’s child population declines continually over the century.

• The greying of China will be a significant challenge by mid-century, especially in terms of maintaining growth, social security and health care systems. The ‘growing old before growing rich’ phenomenon will be a challenge in China

• Health care and education will continue to be growth businesses in China, as possibly be edutainment and travel over the century

• Chinese economic power peak will probably peak in the 2030-2050 period, unless dramatic changes in productivity and innovation take place. Institutional and individual innovation will be the key to continuing strategic advantage.

• China will continue to have a large population ~ 600 million with only primary education of increasing age. Productive economic activity and social security for this population will be a critical challenge. Hence, a redefinition of sustainable primary sector activities will be crucial.

China Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) II

• China will become an important knowledge power before 2025, enabled by massive growth in tertiary education, S&T and R&D investment. The total college educated population , overtakes those with secondary school education in c. 2075

• The role of global corporations will be important to leveraging the large Chinese tertiary sector population of between 200 and 400 million.

• Collaboration with India, the EU and the US will be important to this, as will be world-class education that draws students from across the world. Language may be an issue.

• The acceleration of the growth of tertiary education will be a key strategic challenge for China. If enabled, it could catalyse the rapid cross-over from secondary to tertiary education. This would also imply rapid and effective reform and revamping of the primary education system esp. in rural areas where the decline since the 1990s has been severe.

India Trends (2000-2100)

India: Population cohorts by Education (2000)

Tertiary (1%).

India: Population Cohorts by Education Level (2000)

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (2%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (3%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (4%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (5%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (7%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (8%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (10%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (12%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (13%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (15%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (17%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (19%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (21%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (23%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (25%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (27%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (29%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (32%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (34%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (36%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

India Changes in Working & Dependant Population

Decline in child population. Largest single national working population of the 21st century, but large aged population at end century

India: Changes in Working & Dependant Population (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100

India: Population Structure by Educational Status

Lagged decline in illiterates. Large population with only primary education. Larger end century population of tertiary and secondary school educated

India: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

lation

Incomplete Primary Secondary Tertiary

India: Population trajectories by Educational status

Three educational transitions: c. 2040, c. 2050 and 2085

India: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

lation

Incomplete Primary Secondary Tertiary

India Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) I

• India’s population peaks at between 1.5 and 1.6 billion at between 2050 and 2070 (parameterisation to be reviewed)

• The incremental child population starts declining in absolute numbers by 2010

• Son preference and gender differentials in education appear to decrease (may be a model artefact)

• The demographic dividend of a growing population is reaped by mid-century, with the largest potential working population of over 800 million in the 20 to 64 age cohorts.

• But India will also have over 500 million people over the age of 65. Posing a serious challenge to future savings, social welfare and health care policy. Social and family structure will also be a significant question

India Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) II

• At end century, ~ 25 percent of the population will have a primary and a quarter secondary school education.

• Over a third of the 2100 population will have a tertiary education. This may lead to the further concreting of a ‘trifurcated’ economy with increasing wage differentials

• India becomes a significant knowledge power, early in the century, crossing the US college educated population of 100 million in 2025. China will also have a similar college educated population and would have closed the English ‘gap’.

• Health and education will be growth businesses in India over the century, both to address domestic and global markets

India Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) II

• India will be faced with multiple educational challenges:• Accelerating school education• Enabling the development of livelihoods that use a mix of traditional

knowledge and primary education in an increasingly uncertain (because of climate change) and competitive (because of global trade) primary and household manufacturing sector

• Enabling the growth of employment in the manufacturing sector that is labour intensive, requires a secondary education and can be located in rural and urban areas – implying the rapid expansion of competitive energy, transportation and communication infrastructure

• Enabling the penetration of the knowledge economy into the secondary and primary sectors and away from metropolitan centres

• Developing and scaling world-class quality knowledge institutions by 2015 at the latest

• Addressing the challenge of the ‘lost generations’ of less educated aged people in a democratically transformed society

USA Trends (2000-2100)

USA: Population cohorts by Education (2000)

Tertiary (19%).

USA: Population Cohorts by Education Level (2000)

Source: IFs 5.34, 2007; TARU analysis, 2007

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (22%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (24%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (27%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (29%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (31%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (32%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (35%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (37%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

50-5455-59

65-6970-74

90-9495-99

Tertiary (39%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (41%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (43%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (45%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (46%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (49%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (49%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (50%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (52%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (53%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (54%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (55%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

USA Changes in Working & Dependant Population

Continuing growth of US population, with migration. More or less constant population of children and in the working ages. Growing

aged population

USA: Changes in Working & Dependant Population (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100

USA Population Structure by Educational Status

Declining only school educated population. Significant growth of college educated

USA: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

USA Population trajectories by Educational status

More college educated than only school educated by 2025

USA: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

USA Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) I

• US population is expected to rise steadily from 300 m in 2000 to ~ 425 m in 2100. Much of this rise is expected to come from immigration, as the child population is expected to be steady.

• Unclear how realistic this migration trend will be as large sending areas e.g. Asia will rise out of poverty over this period, experience considerable growth and have large educated populations almost twice the size of the US,

• The working age population remains roughly constant at ~ 150 million, though there is a significant greying, with close to a 100 million aged by end-century. This will challenge the social security and health care systems, unless productivity and technology maintain competitiveness with other regions of the world.

• The US had close to 20% of its population as college educated in 2000. This is expected to rise to 55 percent by end century. This will imply continual growth of the higher education system in the Us. Unclear if this is economically and financially viable given income differentials and savings rates.

USA Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) II

• The proportion of only secondary school educated drops from a third to a fifth over this period, though on a rising base. More college educated than just school educated by 2025.

• This implies that the nature of higher education may change and the manufacturing base of the US will be closer integrated with the ‘knowledge economy’ or increasingly outsourced.

• Given the low savings rate, this would increase the conventional strategic vulnerability of the US economy.

• Unclear how will the US cope with competition with 200 million college educated people each from India and China by 2025. May increase the depth of integration of the US with these economies.

EU 25 Trends (2000-2100)

EU 25 Population cohorts by Education (2000)

Tertiary (6%).

EU25: Population Cohorts by Education Level (2000)

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (8%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (11%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (13%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (16%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (18%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (21%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (23%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (26%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (28%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (31%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (33%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (36%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (38%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (41%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (43%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (45%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (47%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (48%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (50%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (52%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

EU 25 Changes in Working & Dependant Population

Peak population of 450 million c. 2035. Declining child and potential working population. Large aged population

through the century

EU25: Changes in Working & Dependant Population (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100

EU25 Population Structure by Educational Status

Expanding secondary and tertiary educated population.

EU25: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

EU 25 Population trajectories by Educational status

Two cross-overs: c. 2015, 2035. Higher incomplete education than the US and lower number of Tertiary educated workers

EU25: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

EU 25 Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) I

• EU population peaks at ~ 450 million c. 2035. • Population size in 2000, similar to the US in 2100. But

declining birth rates and low immigration (is this a model artefact?) lead to a lower population at end century.

• A significant decline in working age population, due to lowering birth rates and lower adult immigration. Significant greying leading to a larger population of older people than the US.

• Could this mark the demise of the western European welfare state, unless capital accumulation and establishment of a global rentier economy underpin this?

• The demand for outsourced and offshore human services will possibly rise with an aging population, high relative wage costs and high wage differentials with DCs

EU 25 Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) II

• A slightly lagged transition to a ‘knowledge economy’ compared to the US, largely because of lower tertiary education (6% in 2001) and more incomplete education, largely due to poorer education levels in new accession states.

• Tertiary education grows and then declines slowly, but more than half the population is college educated in 2100 and over a quarter has completed secondary school.

• Severe competition in both the manufacturing and services sector can be expected from Asia.

• The closer integration of the Chinese and Indian diasporas and elites with the US will provide for an interesting backdrop to the alliances that may be forged.

• However, the EUs lower levels of specific consumption, resource intensity and savings rates may provide a strong strategic shield as USD forex corrections take place in the early part of the century.

Japan Trends (2000-2100)

Japan Population cohorts by Education (2000)

Tertiary (10%).

Japan: Population Cohorts by Education Level (2000)

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (12%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (14%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (17%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (19%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (22%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (25%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (27%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (30%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (32%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (35%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (38%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (40%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (42%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (44%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (46%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (48%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (50%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (52%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (53%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (54%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Japan Changes in Working & Dependant Population

Continuing demographic decline, with drooping child population and

greying

Japan: Changes in Working & Dependant Population (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100

Japan Population Structure by Educational Status

Japan becomes one of the most educated societies in the world. Significant increase in college education and slow decline of only

school educated.

Japan: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

lation

Japan Population trajectories by Educational status

Slightly lagged transitions: c. 2020 and 2030 compared to the US, more or less at the same times as EU 25

Japan: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Japan Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) I

• Japanese population has peaked at ~ 130 million.• Continuing demographic decline, with dropping child

population and greying as life expectancy increases• Japan may be moving towards greater sustainability and a

more appropriate footprint in population terms, but will resource consumption actually decline to make that possible?

• A relatively high proportion of people with incomplete education (27%) for an OECD economy. Higher tertiary education base than EU 25, but half of US.

• Japan becomes one of the most educated societies in the world, with over half the population educated in colleges by late century. Significant increase in college education but only slow decline of only school educated.

• Food and energy security may continue to be serious challenges esp. with changes in educational status and less interest and skills in the farming and manufacturing sector. How can a shift to more sustainable food, biomass and basic services be enabled – more high-tech and/or changing lifestyles and education?

Japan Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) II

• The peaking of secondary educated workers implies a stronger shift to high-tech manufacturing and a migration of material intensive and environmental less benign production to other locations

• How will Japanese manufacturing be sustained in the face of price competition from China and India? Robots and integration into the Chinese global manufacturing system?

• The population of college educated grows from 10 to 40 million, but in 2025 is a third of both India and China.

• Hence, very high productivity, systems efficiency and alliances will be necessary if Japan needs to maintain is niche in the knowledge economy.

• New resource and commercial alliances will probably need to emerge as economic growth and power shifts to Asia.

Russia Trends (2000-2100)

Russia Population cohorts by Education (2000)

Tertiary (9%).

Russia: Population Cohorts by Education Level (2000)

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (12%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (15%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (16%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (18%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (20%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (25%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (25%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (27%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (29%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (31%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (33%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (35%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (36%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (38%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (39%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

50-5455-59

65-6970-74

90-9495-99

Tertiary (40%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (41%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (42%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (42%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (44%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Russia Changes in Working & Dependant Population

Continuing demographic decline from a peak of nearly 150 million to 80 million. Decline in potential workers and increase in elderly

Russia: Changes in Working & Dependant Population (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100

Russia Population Structure by Educational Status

Decline in share of primary school educated, constant share of secondary school educated but growth in Tertiary educated.

Russia: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

lation

Russia Population trajectories by Educational status

Tertiary over secondary cross-over before primary cross-over. Secondary stable at 30 million near mid century. Tertiary stabilises at

35 million

Russia: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Russia Population-Education Trends: 2000 - 2100

• Continuing post-Soviet Russian demographic decline from a peak of nearly 150 million to 80 million by end-century.

• Decline in potential workers and increase in elderly, without immigration will pose a serious challenge to the economy and welfare support

• Unclear how Russia will be able to maintain its current territorial integrity with this population decline and potential Chinese ‘pressure’ in Siberia

• Relatively high incomplete education levels. Very high share of primary school educated, which declines steadily over the century

• Slow growth and stabilisation of share of secondary school educated. Secondary stable at 30 million near mid century.

• Lags EU & the US in Tertiary education levels – but still high relative share. Tertiary over secondary cross-over before primary cross-over, unlike OECD countries.

• Tertiary educated population rises and stabilises at ~ 35 million, indicating potential trifurcation of the economy, increasingly inequalities, regional disparities as the tertiary sector integrates with the global economy

Brazil Trends (2000-2100)

Brazil Population cohorts by Education (2000)

Tertiary (3%).

Brazil: Population Cohorts by Education Level (2000)

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (4%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (4%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (5%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (6%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (7%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (9%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (10%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (11%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (12%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (14%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (15%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (17%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (18%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (20%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (22%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (24%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (26%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (28%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (30%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (33%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Brazil Changes in Working & Dependant Population

Population peaks at ~ 250 million at mid-century. Declining child population. Potential working population

peaks c. 2030. Rapid greying

Brazil: Changes in Working & Dependant Population (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100

Popula

tion (m

illions)

Brazil Population Structure by Educational Status

Rapid decline in incomplete education, rapid rise of secondary school educated and faster rise of tertiary

education

Brazil: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Brazil Population trajectories by Educational status

Secondary educated population peaks at 80 million. No cross-over with tertiary education. Primary educated

population peaks at 50 million.

Brazil: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Brazil Population-Education Trends: 2000 - 2100

• Population peaks at ~ 250 million in mid-century above half of the US and over three-fourth of the EU.

• Declining child population. Potential working population peaks c. 2030. at over 75 million - more than Japan or Russia. Rapid greying.

• Large current share of three-fourth with incomplete education, 16% primary, 6% Secondary and 3% Tertiary

• Rapid decline in incomplete education, rapid rise of secondary school educated and faster rise of tertiary education

• Secondary educated population peaks at 80 million and over a third in share.

• Tertiary educated population peaks at 50 million, but slower than expected. Yet, more college educated than in Japan or Russia – making Brazil a major knowledge power in the latter part of the century.

South Asia Trends (2000-2100)

South Asia: Population cohorts by Education (2000)

Tertiary (1%).

South Asia: Population Cohorts by Education Level (2000)

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (2%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (3%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (4%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (5%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (6%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (7%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (9%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (10%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (12%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (13%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (15%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

50-5455-59

65-6970-74

90-9495-99

Tertiary (16%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (18%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (20%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (22%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (23%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

50-5455-59

65-6970-74

90-9495-99

Tertiary (25%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (27%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (29%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

Tertiary (31%).

10-1415-19

40-4445-49

90-9495-99

South Asia Changes in Working & Dependant Population

South Asia becomes the region with the largest population, rising from 1.4 billion to 2.4 billion. Potential working population peaks at

1.1 billion.

South Asia: Changes in Working & Dependant Population (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100

South Asia Population Structure by Educational Status

Slow decline of population with incomplete education. Rapid growth in primary and tertiary education. Slower growth in

secondary education.

South Asia: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20502055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

South Asia Population trajectories by Educational status

Primary education cross-over only in 2050. Tertiary in 2055 and near

South Asia: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

South Asia Population-Education Trends(2000– 2100)II

• South Asia becomes the region with the largest population in the world rising from 1.4 billion to 2.4 billion. The regional population was higher than China in 2000.

• Potential working population peaks at 1.1 billion, but number of workers will be strongly linked to female workforce participation rates. Declining child population (but still large at a peak of ~ 600 million).

• High levels of illiteracy (including a potential early rise) with three-fourth with incomplete education in 2000 that declines slowly over the century

• Rapid growth in primary and tertiary education. Slower growth in secondary education.

South Asia Population-Education Trends(2000– 2100) I

• Secondary school educated population not as large as tertiary – pointing towards a structural problem in the latter part of the century?

• The primary- incomplete education cross-over only in 2050. Tertiary-Secondary in 2055 and Tertiary-Secondary near 2100

• The lag in these cross-overs with respect to India (the largest constituent of the region) possibly induced by slow Tertiary education growth in Bangladesh, Pakistan & Nepal

• Illiteracy continues as a serious challenge through the century.

• This may continue to be linked to severe poverty, inability to access labour markets and an increasing trifurcation of the regional economy and disparities in productivity and income between rural and urban areas and backward and more developed regions.

Rest of the World Trends

Rest of the World Population Structure by Educational Status

Population peaks at 6 billion at end-century. Largest fraction with only primary education, followed by

secondary and tertiary.

Rest of the World: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20502055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Rest of the World

Tertiary-secondary cross over same time as primary-incomplete

education cross-over

Rest of the World: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Intermediate Conclusions

Model Structure and Parameterisation• This particular set of outputs was chosen because it provides a number of insights

from just one set of IFS outputs and demonstrates the power of a linked world + national model

• The classes and classification needs to be modified esp. excluding the pre-schoolers etc. and integrating working population etc. in a further iteration

• The IFs interface has improved a lot, but the lack of ability to easily scale graphs forced a fair amount of work to be done. The graphical and map interface and to some extent the table output interface needs to be cleaned up

• IFs produces interesting and sometimes counterintuitive results• But there are discrepancies with the standard UN Population runs that need to be

examined further and tweaked for the base case. A standard errors estimate would be useful.

• This analysis has not examined the GEO4 scenario impact on demographic indicators

• While IFs has the full sophistication of a cohort-component demographic model built into it. The primary gaps that need to be tested for are:• Robustness of rural-urban migration functions• Robustness of the international migration functions• Effectiveness of feedback from human development (health, education,

gender balance) processes• Effectiveness of feedback from large scale environmental and epidemiological

changes• The Chapter in ‘Exploring and Shaping IFs’ on the demographics is not particularly

helpful in addressing a number of these issues

Intermediate Speculations!!

Potential Global & Regional Trends - I1. Global population peaks at 8 to 9 billion post 2050, with a

structure driven largely by DC growth trends.2. Given that

1. Large scale genocide or a nuclear holocaust to maintain hegemony is not ethically or politically acceptable within the current OECD and that

2. Market and global forces are not dramatically disrupted and 3. Pandemics even if they strike will not dramatically alter the

momentum and dynamics of the world-system demography (though it may alter regional patterns) many of the demographic outcomes, at least till mid-century, are in motion

3. This is a world in which economic and political power is increasingly wielded by low and middle per capita income countries with large populations of relatively poor people and a set of global corporations

4. The standard ‘development project’ OECD-following trajectory of national economies towards a low primary population (~ 10%), a large tertiary sector (>50%) i.e. the shift towards a capitalist knowledge economy may not come to pass for most contemporary this century. It may also not be particularly appropriate for sustainability.

Potential Global & Regional Trends - II

5. Increasing stratification of demographically dominant and economically significant new regions (e.g. China, India and Brazil) on the basis of education levels. This along with large rural populations may deepen the divides between the biomass, industrial and knowledge economies as their productivity and per capita output levels diverge.

6. If there are no major K-wave/resource or global environment related macro-disruptions in the global economy (which are doubtful given the scale of phase change) a new form of globalisation which is marked not only by a new phase of Asian capitalism with greater regionalisation and stratification may emerge.

7. The need to respond to environmental externalities, to produce large amounts of goods at low prices for huge populations of relatively low-income households with a basic education and web linked aspirations using increasingly decentralised energy systems may change the nature of global manufacturing systems.

8. Multiple glocal market types emerging stratified by income, culture and mode of production. These Glocally differentiated corporations may be an important new dynamic force across the century.

Potential Global & Regional Trends - III9. Sheer demographic momentum and post-2000 economic

growth trends in Asia, will shift the balance of economic and soft power towards Asia, parts of Latin America and Africa by 2030. This may not be followed by a military power shift.

10.Traditional centre-periphery relationships of the industrial era and late-20th century may change not only geographically but under the influence of a range of regional, stratifying forces leading to an increasingly fractal landscape of power, throughput and connectivity

11.The large child and youth population for the length of the century provides a unique opportunity for learning and change and efforts against degeneration into alienation, conflict or mass mobilisation to meet violent ends.

12.Questions of identity, will however be large. Building dialogues based on tolerance, compassion and shared experiences between communities especially of the young will thus, be crucial

Potential Global & Regional Trends - III13.The large population of the elderly is also an opportunity to

redefine the relationship between ages, within a less hierarchical and stratified social frame than in traditional societies.

14.This will also create large opportunities for healthcare, lifelong learning and a change in the definition of work and leisure.

15.The lives of a large number of elderly rich people should however, not divert resources from the young, the poor and vulnerable.

16.A central fulcrum of a more balanced opportunity for human and social development is dramatically changing the historical imbalance in gender relations and altering the course of human history in a manner that has not been possible for centuries.

17.The large populations in the ‘working ages’, and extended life expectancy will necessitate a reconceptualisation of the meaning of livelihoods, employment and labour markets – if we are not to descend below the depths of the early industrial era, but using ‘knowledge’ and financial capital as differentiating factors.

18.The OECD workforce will grey, forcing either immigration or a greater reliance on technology, as long as capital rents still flow towards these centers. This could also challenge the foundations of the 20th century welfare state, unless dramatic productivity changes are realised

Potential Global & Regional Trends - IV

19.Only 50 percent of the global population would have completed secondary education and above by the end of the 21st century

20.Apart from the large and increasingly aged illiterate population, over a billion people will have only a primary education. The livelihood implications in a global economy are staggering.

21.This implies the need for a new link between traditional and formal knowledge generating and transmission systems. The linkage with resource-based sustainable livelihoods in an increasingly uncertain world may be important.

22.Addressing the challenge of the ‘lost generations’ of less educated aged people will be a challenge across most DCs

23.This implies that primary and secondary education will continue to be challenges in the 21st century, but with a shifting geographic focus towards Asia, Africa & Latin America

Potential Global & Regional Trends - V

24.China will have the largest secondary-level educated population till late century, followed closely by steady Indian growth, some EU and Brazilian expansion and a more or less steady US population

25.These may therefore, be the major manufacturing powers of the 21st century, if dramatic shifts in current modes of industrial production do not take place (an assumption that may not hold)

26.Health and education will be growth businesses in Asia over the century, both to address domestic and global markets

27.Key questions include the penetration and importance of the ‘knowledge economy’ to the livelihoods and productivity of these populations; will these groups become a large urban underclass and the implication of that for future social stability, the political role of the middle class and the future of capitalism.

Potential Global & Regional Trends - VI28.A rapid growth in Tertiary education esp. in India and China, and a

continuing deepening in the US and the EU, implying a massive growth in the demand for universities and the creation of new models of delivery

29.The OECD countries may be the first in human history to have more than half of their population with a Tertiary education.

30.This implies considerable changes in the definition, length, content, mechanism and media of delivery of formal education. The role of communities, the state and corporations in this transition are unclear.

31.India and China will be in close demographic competition as lead knowledge powers followed by US and EU. The critical differentiating factors may therefore include quality of education, innovation and institutions

32.India seems to have a slight edge because of a larger current institutional base esp. in technical education, but China may catch up faster because of more effective execution, greater urbanisation and a more educated population base. The real turnover, for economic power will be c. 2030.

33.Unclear how will the US cope with competition with 200 million college educated people each from India and China by 2025. This may catalyse a greater depth of integration of the US with these economies.

Potential Global & Regional Trends - VII

34.The closer integration of the Chinese and Indian diasporas and elites with the US will provide for an interesting backdrop to the alliances that may be forged.

35.Lower levels of specific consumption, resource intensity and savings rates may provide a strategic shield for the EU.

36. Unclear whether this the real battle for comparative advantage in the global knowledge economy of the 21st century.

37. Alliances between China, India, the US and EU and the role of large corporations in this game are important open questions.

38.Nevertheless, the language and style of hegemony in the knowledge economy of the 21st century will probably be different from that of the 20th

Potential Global & Regional Trends - VIII

South Asia

1. South Asia is demographically the largest region in the world, but with the lowest intra-regional trade, largely because of complex political relationships between former parts of the British India empire.

2. Resolution of these differences and the growth of regional trade could make a dramatic economic difference to the region

3. Densities in much of South Asia are rapidly becoming unsustainable without dramatic changes in ecopotential, technology, management and institutional regimes

4. Large working populations could imply that the wage arbitrage potential with other parts of the world will continue as will manufacturing dominance to cater to domestic markets and export demand.

5. This combined with expected savings rate differentials implies the development of a new form ‘Asian capitalism’.

6. A key question will be whether it will have different characteristics to the last 250 years of western capitalism

Potential Global & Regional Trends - IX

1. Japan may be rather quickly eclipsed as a manufacturing power, potentially changing the geo-political character of East Asia and US alliances and military umbrella over the Pacific

2. Japan may be moving towards greater sustainability and a more appropriate footprint in population terms, but unclear if resource consumption will actually decline to make that possible.

3. Unclear how Japanese manufacturing will be sustained in the face of price competition from China and India.

4. New resource and commercial alliances will probably need to emerge as economic growth and power shifts to Asia.

Potential Global & Regional Trends - XRussia

1. Russia will be severely challenged in maintaining its territorial integrity given its population and huge differentials across the border with China in the east

2. Tertiary educated population rises and stabilises at ~ 35 million, indicating potential trifurcation of the economy, increasingly inequalities, regional disparities as the Tertiary sector integrates with the global economy

Brazil

1. Brazil’s population peaks at ~ 250 million in mid-century above half of the US and over three-fourth of the EU.

2. Potential working population peaks c. 2030. at over 75 million - more than Japan or Russia.

3. Tertiary educated population peaks at 50 million, but slower than expected. Yet, more college educated than in Japan or Russia – making Brazil a potential knowledge power in the latter part of the century.

Select References

• Hughes, B.B. & Hillebrand E.E., Exploring and Shaping International Futures, Paradigm, Boulder, 2006

• www.du.edu/~bhughes/ifs.htm l • UN Population Division World Population Prospects

2006 (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2006/wpp2006.htm )

ifs 5.34 global & national population-education trend benchmarking aromar revi taru march 2007

education incomplete

tertiary education

global population cohorts

global trends

primary emphasis

national trends

model results

plausible given past

Documents

problema 5.34 taylor

sdg index & dashboards - construible · pdf filemembers of...

aromar revi: teaching for tomorrow

rome,!...

kalpa taru souvenir published on 15th world sanskrit...

local history of ethiopia : ta taru - tedo ber

download [5.34 mb]

erp system implementation - pengembangan softskills...

00. paparan menpupera_pit hatti_jakstra taru

marianne hemminki – miia leppänen – taru valovirta get...

kalpa taru souvenir published on 15th world sanskrit...

edf2014: taru rastas, senior advisor, ministry of...

gronholm taru

lg: mobile devices, home entertainment & appliances | lg usa...

taru kekkonen: learning logs

question 1 a quarter is found to have a mass of 5.34 grams...

0'/. · 2020-01-22 · 22.01.2020 web of science [v.5.34] -...

aromar revi taru, new...

improving teachers’ reactions to challenging interactions:...

sri sri kalyan kalpa-taru - krishna · pdf filesri sri...