ifs 5.34 global & national population-education trend benchmarking aromar revi taru march 2007

IFs 5.34 Global & National Population-Education Trend

Benchmarking

Aromar ReviTARU

March 2007

Global Population Cohorts by Education Level (2050)

-400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400Population (millions)

No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary

400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE

Source: IFs 5.34, 2007; TARU analysis,

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-29

30-3435-39

40-4445-49

50-5455-59

60-6465-6970-74

75-7980-84

84-8990-9495-99

>100

Background & Methodology

• This analysis is based on the IFs 5.34 (Jan 2007) base run and seeks to:• Compare global and select national trends over the 2000-

2100 period• Test whether the outcomes seem plausible given past trends

and a broad understanding of the dynamics• Explore strategic and policy implications and key directions

for future scenario building• Enable a clearer visualization of dynamic trends than the

current implementation of IFs enables• The primary emphasis is on a comparison of India and China,

but other major global and emerging economic ‘powers’ are also explored to provide context

• Educational attainment is simulated using a 22-cohort component population model and four levels of female and male attainment: no education (incomplete education including children under 14); primary, secondary and tertiary education

• A graphs are scaled similarly to provide a visual basis for comparison

• Caveat: the model results are only indicative. Some outcomes may be model ‘arefacts’ rather than real world dynamics.

Global Trends (2000-2100)

Global Population cohorts by Education (2000)

Incomplete education (60%); Primary (25%), Secondary (11%); Tertiary (4%). Gender asymmetry.




400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE


0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100


Incomplete education (56%); Primary (27%), Secondary (13%); Tertiary (4%).




400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE


0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100






400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE


0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100






400 300 200 100 10 200 300 400MALE FEMALE


0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100






400 30 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE


0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100






400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE


0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100






400 30 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE


0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100






400 300 200 100 100 200 300 400MALE FEMALE


0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100






400 300 200 100 100 200 300 40MALE FEMALE


0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100

Global Changes in Working & Dependant Population

Slow decline in child population. Peaking of population in working ages ~ 2050. Large growth in the elderly.

Global: Changes in Working & Dependant Population (2000-2100)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100

Years

Pop

ulat

ion

(mill

ions

)

Children (0-14) Young Adults (15-19) Potential workers (20 to 64) Elderly (> 65)

Source: IFs 5.34, 2007, TARU analysis, 2007

Global Population Structure by Educational Status

Decline in incomplete education, strong growth of primary education, high growth of tertiary education over the century

Global: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2000 20052010 20152020 2025 20302035 20402045 2050 20552060 20652070 2075 20802085 20902095 2100Years

Pop

ulat

ion

(mill

ions

)

Incomplete Primary Secondary Tertiary Source: IFs 5.34, 2007, TARU analysis, 2007

Global Population trajectories by Educational status

Three cross-overs in the transition to a global knowledge society:~2050; ~2065 and ~2085

Global: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Pop

ulat

ion

(mill

ions

)

Incomplete Primary Secondary TertiarySource: IFs 5.34, 2007, TARU analysis, 2007

Global Population with Only Primary Education (2000-2100)

India, China, Africa and Latin America have large populations with only a primary education

Share of Global Population with Only Primary Education (2000-2100)

Rest of the World

India

China

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Popu

lation

(mill

ions

)

Rest of the World India China USA Brazil EU25 Russia Japan

Global Population with Only Secondary Education (2000-2100)

Chindia will have the largest secondary school educated population. China will have the largest secondary school educated population in the world

Share of Global Population with Only Secondary Education (2000-2100)

Rest of the World

India

China

USA

EU25Brazil

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Popu

lation

(mill

ions

)

Rest of the World India China USA EU25 Brazil Russia Japan

Global Population with Tertiary Education (2000-2100)

India, China, US and EU will have the largest Tertiary educated populations, slightly less than the Rest of the World

Share of Global Population with Tertiary Education (2000-2100)

Rest of the World

India

ChinaUSA

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Popu

lation

(mill

ions

)

Rest of the World India China USA EU25 Japan Brazil Russia

National Populations with Only Primary Education (2000-2100)

Chindia will have up to 1 billion people with only a primary education – limiting formal knowledge intensive occupations and underscoring the

importance of traditional knowledge

National Populations with Only Primary Education (2000-2100)

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Popu

lation

(mill

ions

)

India China USA EU25 Japan Russia Brazil

National Populations with Only Secondary Education (2000-2100)

China dominates with its secondary educated population till late century, followed by steady Indian growth, EU and Brazil expansion and more or less

steady US population

National Populations with Only Secondary Education (2000-2100)

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Popu

lation

(mill

ions

)


National Populations with Tertiary Education (2000-2100)

India and China in close competition as lead knowledge powers followed by US and EU

National Populations with Tertiary Education (2000-2100)

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Popu

lation

(mill

ions

)


Global Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) I

1. Global population peaks at ~ 10 billion in 2070, structure driven largely by DC growth trends, continue into the 22nd century

2. Slow decline in global child population over the century, with a significant decline in high-income countries

3. Population in the working age: 20 to 65 peaks pre-2050 implying potential changes in retirement age, nature of work and the inter-generational social compact that underwrote the 20th century western European welfare state

4. With much of the working population of Asian origin, with some from Africa and Latin America, immigration to address the ‘greying’ of the OECD workforce may be significant, unless shifts to a highly productive robotic society ensues

5. Russia will be severely challenged in maintaining its territorial integrity given its population and huge differentials across the border with China in the east

6. Japan will be rather quickly eclipsed as a manufacturing power, potentially changing the geo-political character of East Asia and US alliances and military umbrella over the Pacific

7. Densities in much of Asia rapidly become unsustainable without dramatic changes in ecopotential, technology, management and institutional regimes

8. Large working populations in Asia could imply that the wage arbitrage potential with other parts of the world will continue as will manufacturing dominance to cater to domestic markets and export demand.

9. This combined with expected savings rate differentials implies the development of Asian capitalism. A key question will be whether it will have different characteristics to the last 20 years of western capitalism?

Global Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) II

10.Only 50 percent of the global population would have completed secondary education and above by the end of the 21st century

11.Apart from the large and increasingly aged illiterate population, over a billion people will have only a primary education. The livelihood implications of this in an emerging global economy are staggering.

12.This implies the need for a new link between traditional and formal knowledge generating and transmission systems - a crucial area of sociological and pedagogical research. The linkage with resource-based sustainable livelihoods in an increasingly uncertain world may be important.

13.This implies that primary and secondary education will continue to be challenges in the 21st century, but with a shifting geographic focus towards Asia, Africa & Latin America

14.China will have the largest secondary-level educated population till late century, followed closely by steady Indian growth, some EU and Brazil expansion and a more or less steady US population

15.These may therefore, be the major manufacturing powers of the 21st century, if dramatic shifts in current modes of industrial production do not take place

16.Key questions include the penetration and importance of the ‘knowledge economy’ to the livelihoods and productivity of these populations; will these groups become a large urban underclass and the implication of that for future social stability, the political role of the middle class and the future of capitalism?

Global Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) III

18.A rapid growth in tertiary education esp. in India and China, and a continuing deepening in the US and the EU, implying a massive growth in the demand for universities and the creation of new models of delivery

19.The OECD countries may be the first in human history to have more than half of their population with a Tertiary education

20.This implies considerable changes in the definition, length, content, mechanism and media of delivery of formal education. Unclear role of communities, the state and corporations in this transition

21.India and China will be in close demographic competition as lead knowledge powers followed by US and EU. The critical differentiating factors may therefore include the quality of education, innovation and institutions

22.India seems to have a slight edge because of a larger current institutional base esp. in technical education, but China may catch up faster because of more effective execution, greater urbanisation and a more educated population base. The real turnover, as for economic power will be c. 2030.

23.Is this the real battle for comparative advantage in the global knowledge economy of the 21st century? Alliances between China, India, the US and EU and the role of large corporations in this game are important open questions.

24.Nevertheless, the language and style of hegemony in the knowledge economy of the 21st century will be clearly different from the 20th

China Trends (2000-2100)

China: Population cohorts by Education (2000)

Incomplete education (54%); Primary (33%), Secondary (12%);

Tertiary (2%).

China: Population Cohorts by Education Level (2000)

-100 -50 0 50 100Population (millions)


100 50 50 100MALE FEMALE


0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-5455-59

60-64

65-6970-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (2%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (3%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (4%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (5%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (6%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (7%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (9%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (11%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (12%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (14%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (16%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (18%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (20%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (23%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (25%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (27%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (29%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (32%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (34%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (36%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100

China Changes in Working & Dependant Population

Population peaks ~ 2050. Secular decline in child population. Working population peaks ~2020.

China: Changes in Working & Dependant Population (2000-2100)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100

Years

Pop

ulat

ion

(mill

ions

)



China Population Structure by Educational Status

Secular decline in illiteracy. Massive growth in tertiary

education

China: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20502055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Pop

ulat

ion

(mill

ions

)


China Population trajectories by Educational status

Massive growth in tertiary education, overtakes secondary in ~2075 and

primary in ~2085

China: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Pop

ulat

ion

(mill

ions

)


China Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) I

• China’s population is expected to peak c. 2050 at about 1.5 billion. The population in working ages peaks c. 2020 (check projections). China’s child population declines continually over the century.

• The greying of China will be a significant challenge by mid-century, especially in terms of maintaining growth, social security and health care systems. The ‘growing old before growing rich’ phenomenon will be a challenge in China

• Health care and education will continue to be growth businesses in China, as possibly be edutainment and travel over the century

• Chinese economic power peak will probably peak in the 2030-2050 period, unless dramatic changes in productivity and innovation take place. Institutional and individual innovation will be the key to continuing strategic advantage.

• China will continue to have a large population ~ 600 million with only primary education of increasing age. Productive economic activity and social security for this population will be a critical challenge. Hence, a redefinition of sustainable primary sector activities will be crucial.

China Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) II

• China will become an important knowledge power before 2025, enabled by massive growth in tertiary education, S&T and R&D investment. The total college educated population , overtakes those with secondary school education in c. 2075

• The role of global corporations will be important to leveraging the large Chinese tertiary sector population of between 200 and 400 million.

• Collaboration with India, the EU and the US will be important to this, as will be world-class education that draws students from across the world. Language may be an issue.

• The acceleration of the growth of tertiary education will be a key strategic challenge for China. If enabled, it could catalyse the rapid cross-over from secondary to tertiary education. This would also imply rapid and effective reform and revamping of the primary education system esp. in rural areas where the decline since the 1990s has been severe.

India Trends (2000-2100)

India: Population cohorts by Education (2000)


Tertiary (1%).

India: Population Cohorts by Education Level (2000)





0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (2%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (3%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (4%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (5%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (7%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (8%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (10%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (12%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (13%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (15%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (17%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (19%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (21%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (23%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (25%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (27%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (29%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (32%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (34%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (36%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100

India Changes in Working & Dependant Population

Decline in child population. Largest single national working population of the 21st century, but large aged population at end century

India: Changes in Working & Dependant Population (2000-2100)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100

Years

Pop

ulat

ion

(mill

ions

)



India: Population Structure by Educational Status

Lagged decline in illiterates. Large population with only primary education. Larger end century population of tertiary and secondary school educated

India: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Popu

lation

(mill

ions

)

Incomplete Primary Secondary Tertiary

India: Population trajectories by Educational status

Three educational transitions: c. 2040, c. 2050 and 2085

India: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Popu

lation

(mill

ions

)

Incomplete Primary Secondary Tertiary

India Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) I

• India’s population peaks at between 1.5 and 1.6 billion at between 2050 and 2070 (parameterisation to be reviewed)

• The incremental child population starts declining in absolute numbers by 2010

• Son preference and gender differentials in education appear to decrease (may be a model artefact)

• The demographic dividend of a growing population is reaped by mid-century, with the largest potential working population of over 800 million in the 20 to 64 age cohorts.

• But India will also have over 500 million people over the age of 65. Posing a serious challenge to future savings, social welfare and health care policy. Social and family structure will also be a significant question

India Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) II

• At end century, ~ 25 percent of the population will have a primary and a quarter secondary school education.

• Over a third of the 2100 population will have a tertiary education. This may lead to the further concreting of a ‘trifurcated’ economy with increasing wage differentials

• India becomes a significant knowledge power, early in the century, crossing the US college educated population of 100 million in 2025. China will also have a similar college educated population and would have closed the English ‘gap’.

• Health and education will be growth businesses in India over the century, both to address domestic and global markets

India Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) II

• India will be faced with multiple educational challenges:• Accelerating school education• Enabling the development of livelihoods that use a mix of traditional

knowledge and primary education in an increasingly uncertain (because of climate change) and competitive (because of global trade) primary and household manufacturing sector

• Enabling the growth of employment in the manufacturing sector that is labour intensive, requires a secondary education and can be located in rural and urban areas – implying the rapid expansion of competitive energy, transportation and communication infrastructure

• Enabling the penetration of the knowledge economy into the secondary and primary sectors and away from metropolitan centres

• Developing and scaling world-class quality knowledge institutions by 2015 at the latest

• Addressing the challenge of the ‘lost generations’ of less educated aged people in a democratically transformed society

USA Trends (2000-2100)

USA: Population cohorts by Education (2000)


Tertiary (19%).

USA: Population Cohorts by Education Level (2000)




Source: IFs 5.34, 2007; TARU analysis, 2007

0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (22%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (24%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (27%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (29%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (31%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (32%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (35%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (37%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-5455-59

60-64

65-6970-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (39%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (41%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (43%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (45%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (46%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (49%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (50%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (52%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (53%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (54%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (55%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100

USA Changes in Working & Dependant Population

Continuing growth of US population, with migration. More or less constant population of children and in the working ages. Growing

aged population

USA: Changes in Working & Dependant Population (2000-2100)

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100

Years

Pop

ulat

ion

(mill

ions

)



USA Population Structure by Educational Status

Declining only school educated population. Significant growth of college educated

USA: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Pop

ulat

ion

(mill

ions

)


USA Population trajectories by Educational status

More college educated than only school educated by 2025

USA: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

-

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Pop

ulat

ion

(mill

ions

)


USA Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) I

• US population is expected to rise steadily from 300 m in 2000 to ~ 425 m in 2100. Much of this rise is expected to come from immigration, as the child population is expected to be steady.

• Unclear how realistic this migration trend will be as large sending areas e.g. Asia will rise out of poverty over this period, experience considerable growth and have large educated populations almost twice the size of the US,

• The working age population remains roughly constant at ~ 150 million, though there is a significant greying, with close to a 100 million aged by end-century. This will challenge the social security and health care systems, unless productivity and technology maintain competitiveness with other regions of the world.

• The US had close to 20% of its population as college educated in 2000. This is expected to rise to 55 percent by end century. This will imply continual growth of the higher education system in the Us. Unclear if this is economically and financially viable given income differentials and savings rates.

USA Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) II

• The proportion of only secondary school educated drops from a third to a fifth over this period, though on a rising base. More college educated than just school educated by 2025.

• This implies that the nature of higher education may change and the manufacturing base of the US will be closer integrated with the ‘knowledge economy’ or increasingly outsourced.

• Given the low savings rate, this would increase the conventional strategic vulnerability of the US economy.

• Unclear how will the US cope with competition with 200 million college educated people each from India and China by 2025. May increase the depth of integration of the US with these economies.

EU 25 Trends (2000-2100)

EU 25 Population cohorts by Education (2000)


Tertiary (6%).

EU25: Population Cohorts by Education Level (2000)





0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (8%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (11%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (13%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (16%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (18%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (21%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (23%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (26%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (28%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (31%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (33%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (36%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (38%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (41%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (43%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (45%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (47%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (48%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (50%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (52%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100

EU 25 Changes in Working & Dependant Population

Peak population of 450 million c. 2035. Declining child and potential working population. Large aged population

through the century

EU25: Changes in Working & Dependant Population (2000-2100)

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100

Years

Pop

ulat

ion

(mill

ions

)



EU25 Population Structure by Educational Status

Expanding secondary and tertiary educated population.

EU25: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Pop

ulat

ion

(mill

ions

)


EU 25 Population trajectories by Educational status

Two cross-overs: c. 2015, 2035. Higher incomplete education than the US and lower number of Tertiary educated workers

EU25: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Pop

ulat

ion

(mill

ions

)


EU 25 Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) I

• EU population peaks at ~ 450 million c. 2035. • Population size in 2000, similar to the US in 2100. But

declining birth rates and low immigration (is this a model artefact?) lead to a lower population at end century.

• A significant decline in working age population, due to lowering birth rates and lower adult immigration. Significant greying leading to a larger population of older people than the US.

• Could this mark the demise of the western European welfare state, unless capital accumulation and establishment of a global rentier economy underpin this?

• The demand for outsourced and offshore human services will possibly rise with an aging population, high relative wage costs and high wage differentials with DCs

EU 25 Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) II

• A slightly lagged transition to a ‘knowledge economy’ compared to the US, largely because of lower tertiary education (6% in 2001) and more incomplete education, largely due to poorer education levels in new accession states.

• Tertiary education grows and then declines slowly, but more than half the population is college educated in 2100 and over a quarter has completed secondary school.

• Severe competition in both the manufacturing and services sector can be expected from Asia.

• The closer integration of the Chinese and Indian diasporas and elites with the US will provide for an interesting backdrop to the alliances that may be forged.

• However, the EUs lower levels of specific consumption, resource intensity and savings rates may provide a strong strategic shield as USD forex corrections take place in the early part of the century.

Japan Trends (2000-2100)

Japan Population cohorts by Education (2000)


Tertiary (10%).

Japan: Population Cohorts by Education Level (2000)





0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (12%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (14%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (17%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (19%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (22%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (25%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (27%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (30%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (32%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (35%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (38%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (40%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (42%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (44%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (46%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (48%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (50%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (52%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (53%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100



Tertiary (54%).






0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100

Japan Changes in Working & Dependant Population

Continuing demographic decline, with drooping child population and

greying

Japan: Changes in Working & Dependant Population (2000-2100)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100

Years

Pop

ulat

ion

(mill

ions

)



Japan Population Structure by Educational Status

Japan becomes one of the most educated societies in the world. Significant increase in college education and slow decline of only

school educated.

Japan: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

-

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Popu

lation

(mill

ions

)


Japan Population trajectories by Educational status

Slightly lagged transitions: c. 2020 and 2030 compared to the US, more or less at the same times as EU 25

Japan: Population by Educational Status (2000-2100)

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100Years

Pop

ulat

ion

(mill

ions

)


Japan Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) I

• Japanese population has peaked at ~ 130 million.• Continuing demographic decline, with dropping child

population and greying as life expectancy increases• Japan may be moving towards greater sustainability and a

more appropriate footprint in population terms, but will resource consumption actually decline to make that possible?

• A relatively high proportion of people with incomplete education (27%) for an OECD economy. Higher tertiary education base than EU 25, but half of US.

• Japan becomes one of the most educated societies in the world, with over half the population educated in colleges by late century. Significant increase in college education but only slow decline of only school educated.

• Food and energy security may continue to be serious challenges esp. with changes in educational status and less interest and skills in the farming and manufacturing sector. How can a shift to more sustainable food, biomass and basic services be enabled – more high-tech and/or changing lifestyles and education?

Japan Population-Education Trends (2000 – 2100) II

• The peaking of secondary educated workers implies a stronger shift to high-tech manufacturing and a migration of material intensive and environmental less benign production to other locations

• How will Japanese manufacturing be sustained in the face of price competition from China and India? Robots and integration into the Chinese global manufacturing system?

• The population of college educated grows from 10 to 40 million, but in 2025 is a third of both India and China.

• Hence, very high productivity, systems efficiency and alliances will be necessary if Japan needs to maintain is niche in the knowledge economy.

• New resource and commercial alliances will probably need to emerge as economic growth and power shifts to Asia.

Russia Trends (2000-2100)

Russia Population cohorts by Education (2000)


Tertiary (9%).

Russia: Population Cohorts by Education Level (2000)





0-4

5-9

10-1415-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-4445-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

84-89

90-9495-99

>100