hypervoice keynote - annotated version
Post on 04-Apr-2018
217 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
1/94
Martin Geddeswww.martingeddes.com
mail@martingeddes.com
This presentation was given as the closing keynote at
Metaswitch Forum 2012 in Orlando, FL on 4th October 2012.
It solely contains the opinions of Martin Geddes,
and has not been endorsed by Metaswitch.
Nonetheless, many thanks to Metaswitch for the speaking
opportunity. Much appreciated.
2012 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd.
Do unto others
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
2/94
A presentation about
Hypervoice
Specifically, how voice joins the
constellation of web hypermedia,alongside text and images.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
3/94
NOW
Past Future
The presentation
starts by looking at
the past of voice,then the future,
before returning to
the present.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
4/94
Telco
CONFUSION
?
?Web
The present is very
confusing, because
we are seeing the
collision of two
conflicting sets of
values and ideas.
I am putting forward a
hypothesis as to what
emerges from thatconfusion.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
5/94
Convergence Fragmentation
For telcos, there is increasing
dissonance between the
values, beliefs and behaviours
that made them successful,
and the current reality.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
6/94
NOWThe emphasis on
interoperation, federation,
standards, vertical integration
doesnt fit with the reality offragmentation of voice.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
7/94
POTSPSTN + PLMN +
Public SIP
Interconnect System+ Skype + Xbox +
Just a feature
of the Cloud,
Web and Apps
As is readily seen
from current
trends.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
8/94
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
9/94
Telco
Lets start with the
trajectory of telcos.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
10/94
PAST
And go back to
basics and the very
beginning.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
11/94
What isvoice
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
12/94
This is both trivial and profound,
as talking at a distance is subtlydifferent in many ways to talking
to those physically present.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
13/94
So, what doyou do for a
living?
We take this
everyday wonder forgranted. We
shouldnt! So next
time someone asks
you what you do
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
14/94
Work for thephone
company
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
15/94
So, what doyou do for a
living?
You can do better than that!
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
16/94
Networkequipment
vendor
Sorry, even less cool!
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
17/94
Illusionist!The correct answer is that you are
an illusionist.
You conjure up the ghostly voice of
someone from hundreds or
thousands of miles away, and trick
people into believing a real person
is present.
My Daddy is an ILLUSIONIST!
Whats yours?
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
18/94
Presence
This illusion has a name. It is
called cognitive absorption.
The guy on the left isnt falling
for the trickhes just rubbing
his ear with a lump of plastic.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
19/94
Weve been performing this
trick for a long time. So long,
that voice and telephonyhave become virtually
synonymous.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
20/94
When telephony was new,
phone companies had to
teach people what to say; a
new language of etiquette.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
21/94
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
22/94
Telephony has anunconscious inner language,
a bit like a game of chess,
with standard opening
gambits, middle game and
endings.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
23/94
This book from the mid
1990s studies hundreds of
calls and documents that
language.
A critical feature of
telephony is the power the
caller has over the caller;
both in choice of timing, and
the control of subject
matter when the call isanswered. There is an innate
social imbalance.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
24/94
And all these features were
built in a very different era,for different users, with
different expectations, by a
very different kind of
ecosystem.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
25/94
As an example, consider the
toll free number, introduced
by fiat under the old AT&T
long distance regime.
A ti i h
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
26/94
Assumes our time is cheapand calls are expensive
$telephonylabor
This implicitly assumescalls are expensive. After
all, what else would the
phone company desire!
A minute of labor cost
less than a minute of
long distance telephony.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
27/94
Equalized between c.1982-2000
$ $telephonylabor
In c. 1982 you could
hire a college graduate
at parity per minute
with fixed-line long
distance calls.
By 2000, even a mobile
minute was cheaperthan hiring a high
school graduate for 60
seconds.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
28/94
Today
telephonylabor
$Today, labor far exceeds
the cost of telephony. Itis our time that is
scarce, not our
machinery of talk.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
29/94
Universal service
Emergency lifelineLegal intercept
Telco social contract
However, that system left behind
many critical social services and
systems that need to be preserved
as part of our society.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
30/94
Service-centricTelco device
Telco access
Telco service
Network roaming
Plus an extraordinarily successful
system that has served to connect
billions of people around the
world. Hurrah for telcos!
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
31/94
PRESENTSo lets roll forward to
the present.
Telcos exist in co-opetition
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
32/94
Service-centric
Telco device
Telco access
Telco service
Network roaming
Experience-centric
Any combination of
device, access
and service*
Experience roaming
* Supported within any one ecosystem
Telcos exist in co opetition
with over the top (OTT)
players for services
revenue.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
33/94
Corrosion
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
34/94
ARBITRAGE COMPETITION REGULATION
The three horsemen of thetelepocalypse
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
35/94
The temptation is to retreat to
an undergound safe place in
Nebraska.
This is not a good long-term
lifestyle choice.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
36/94
Off-net apps are the newmobile coverage
CLOUD
ACCESSCOVERAGE
CLOUD
SERVICECOVERAGESo if you cant beat
them, join them.
However, the Internet cannot and never will carry
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
37/94
Service-centric
Telco device
Telco access
Telco service
Network roaming
Experience-centric
Any combination of
device, access
and service*
Experience roaming
* Supported within any one ecosystem
Product-centric
Mixture of telco and
3rd party devices,
access and services
?Which is giving rise toa hybrid model ofservice delivery.
societys real-time communications needs. It is
fundamentally unsuited to the job.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
38/94
NGN Fixed
Recreating aVoIP PSTN
4G MobileVoice over LTE =Telephony over LTE
So telcos are left in a
groundhog day forever
re-creating telephony, rather
than moving forwards.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
39/94
How do I do
cloud voiceSo the telco challenge is to
find a model of cloud voice
that works both technically
and economically.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
40/94
Web
Lets go look at the parallel
evolution of the web and
hypermedia.
Again well go right back to
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
41/94
PAST
Again, we ll go right back to
the beginning.
h
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
42/94
What a computer is to me is its
the most remarkable tool thatweve ever come up with, and its
the equivalent of a
bicycle for our minds. Steve Jobs
Computer folk start with a differentmind-set. Networks arent about
telephones and telegraphs, but about
connecting computers.
Ideas
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
43/94
Ideas
And specifically, they see
computers as effort amplifiers
for spreading ideas.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
44/94
doc doc
HYPERLINK 1.0
A PLACE METAPHOR
And as ideas naturally are
expressed via documents, these
are amplified via hyperlinks.
Documents
get URLs
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
45/94
Documents Homepages Blogs
Which gave rise to this world.(With blogs being a stepping
stone to the next phase of the
Webs evolution.)
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
46/94
Hypertext
WEB 1.0
MINIMAL IMPACT ON VOICESOME IMPACT ON FAX
So the first edition of the Web
was based on hypertext, and
had minimal impact on telcos
bar creating demand for dial-up
and broadband access.
E
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
47/94
doc event
HYPERLINK 2.0
A STREAM METAPHORThe world moved on. We came
up with a new metaphor. The
granularity of linking dropped.
We started recording and
pointing to individual events.
Events get
URLs
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
48/94
ImagesStatusupdates
@pointers#tags
Tags
There was an explosion of useand innovation based on this
new stream metaphor.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
49/94
Social web
WEB 2.0
Which we gave a name to, as itamplified our ability to relate.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
50/94
Hypermessaging
WEB 2.0
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SMS
Because in retrospect we had
invented a new hypermedium.
Thoughts
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
51/94
Thoughts
Which amplified individual
thoughts.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
52/94
PRESENT
So lets roll forward to the
present.
Add bi
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
53/94
Add new binary
medium to
browsers using a
place metaphor
Assume it just
works on the
Internet
Everyone will
figure out how to
use it
The web folk are just as stuck as
the telcos in accommodating
voice! Just in a different way.
With their current approach
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
54/94
being useful, but neither
necessary nor sufficient to make
voice a native of hypermedia.
This standard lets web browsers
send and receive real-time audio
and video.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
55/94
How do I do
cloud voice
So the same question applies to the
web how to bring voice into our
integrated online experience, rather
than existing as a parallel universe.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
56/94
Telco
Web
CONFUSION
And that is why we find ourselves in a
very confusing place.
So how can we resolve that confusion
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
57/94
FUTUREas we plunge into the future?
Cl d t t?
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
58/94
Cloud text?
HypertextA simple observation points the way.
Whilst we talk of cloud voice, we
dont talk of cloud text.
Its hypertext.
Cl d i ?
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
59/94
Cloud voice?
HypervoiceSo the resolution is to make voiceinto a native hypermedium, through
understanding its intrinsic linkingproperties.
VOICE WEB VOICE HYPERVOICE
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
60/94
VOICE,WEB VOICE, HYPERVOICE
That means transcending the limits of
web voice as currently conceived,
and instead moving to hypervoice.
HYPERVOICE
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
61/94
Links what we say
to what we do
HYPERVOICE
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
62/94
Just as we now routinely digitally
capture our words and images, we
will capture our voices. Voice need
no longer be ephemeral.
Memories Which makeshypervoice an
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
63/94
Memories hypervoice anamplifier for our
working memories.
Everything linked by time
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
64/94
Everything linked by timeNotes you take
Slides you show
Screens you share
Messages you send
Web pages you browse
Documents you open
Customer records you view
Sales opportunities you edit
Trouble tickets you close
WEB 3 0
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
65/94
Hypervoice
WEB 3.0
TRANSCENDS
TELEPHONY
HYPERLINK 3 0 Voice gestures
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
66/94
event event
HYPERLINK 3.0
A TEMPORAL METAPHOR
g
get URLs
The web gets a new linking
structure, one based on
time. Humans arent nearly
as intuitive at managing
temporal metaphors as they
are at spatial ones.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
67/94
Magician!So hypervoice upgrades us
from illusionists to
magicians.
Daddy youre a
MAGICIAN too! How cool!
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
68/94
As we can time travel as
easily as we space travel.
Why should you care?
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
69/94
Why should you care?
Your 20th century
network voice product
has to compete against
21st century cloud rivals
Th big f t h
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
70/94
Three big future changes
1. User experience
2. Business model3. Network technology
For example, computers will help us to
d h h ll ill
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
71/94
rendezvous. The phone call will
become the offer or request.
Audio will be recorded locally as well
as send in real-time, given audio
make-up, and the pristine result
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
72/94
uploaded in perfect replica.
Three big future changes
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
73/94
Three big future changes
1.User experience
2.Business model3. Network technology
Just as the move from text to hypertext gave
rise to Google-like business models that
remove friction, hypervoice will enable new
disruptive revenue models
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
74/94
PUBLICENTERPRISES
disruptive revenue models.
The money will be in making ordinary,
everyday business interactions moreefficient, effective and secure
internally and externally.
Example: Fonolo
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
75/94
Example: Fonolo
An example today is Fonolo, whichenables hypervoice deep-links into
IVRs, using your smartphone.
Three big future changes
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
76/94
Three big future changes
1.User experience
2. Business model3.Network technology
Networks are just large distributed supercomputers; the wires and
radios are the processor interconnects. But you knew that anyway
DEDICATED NETWORK
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
77/94
Previously we have had
- the fixed/mobile voice networks
(effective and efficient, but inflexible)
- the Internet (efficient and flexible,
but ineffective for real-time)
Monoservice network
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
78/94
These are single class of
service networks. Kind of like
the networking equivalent of
black and white photography.
IMS + SBC WORLD
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
79/94
We are building a world that is
effective and flexible, if
somewhat inefficient.
These are the kinds of
technologies telcos use to
deliver voice services over
Internet Protocol
Monoservice overlays
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
80/94
y
We do this via isolating flows
using overlays.
So weve now got multiple
shades of sepia.
CLOUD WORLD
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
81/94
The future will require us tolearn how to multiplex
everything together much
better.
Polyservice networks
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
82/94
y
Which means multiple classes
of service; possibly even oneunique to every flow!
Kodachrome networks!
Effective Flexible Efficient
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
83/94
Because we will need all three
properties to deliver acompletely unified real-time
world of distributed
computing.
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
84/94
CLOSING THOUGHTS
WERE NEARLY DONE
Technological Revolutions &Financial Capital
Carlota Perez
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
85/94
Carlota Perez
Steam, Coal,
Iron, Railways
Electricity, Steel
& Heavy
Engineering
Oil, Petrochemicals
& Automobiles
IT & Telecoms
? Biotech,
Nanotech
1770 2012
The Turning Point Then a bubble andfinancial collapse,
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
86/94
Purpose-for-fitness Fitness-for-purpose
Each revolution has a
period of around 70
years where we work
out how stuff works.
Finally there is a golden age,
as society re-organisesaround the technology and
reaps the benefits.
social disorder.
Technology becomes
modular, reliable and
invisible.
Example: farms bought
one motor, and lots of
adapters.
Example: your
toothbrush has a
micro-motor.
Transistor in 1940s.
The Turning Point
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
87/94
Voice as
network serviceVoice as
cloud function
Voice becomes as invisible
and innate to your onlineexperience as the motor in
your toothbrush is to your
waking-up experience.
Packaged
Focuses on containing
failure modes of
applications. What
telcos have always
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
88/94
Telco
Web
CONFUSION
g
Cloud
Services
Libreville
telcos have always
done.
Experimental systems
that trial new successmodes. Even wilder
than the Internet is
today.
NOW
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
89/94
Past Future
Back to the
present
USF, ICC, PSTN transition?
Universal Service Fund, Inter-carrier Compensation, shutting down the old fixed network
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
90/94
Railroadsvs roadsThe railroad regulator
is out of business, the
railroads are not.
Same issues in 19th
century.
Roads changed the model, obsoleted these
issues. Our roads are internet, cloud, cognitiveradios, community networks.
The telecoms regulator largely exists
to perpetuate problems it was
invented to resolve a century ago.
Focus on the
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
91/94
Focus on the
customer
not the regulatorElse youll go downtogether.
What do you need to do?
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
92/94
1. Understand hypervoice future.
2. Get cloudyfor service delivery.
3. Buy network flexibility.
4. Import inventive services.
5. Export successful services.
Free newsletter
-
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
93/94
www.martingeddes.com
Free newsletter
New user experiences,
business models andnetwork technologies.
http://www.futureofcomms.com/http://www.futureofcomms.com/ -
7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION
94/94
Thank You
Need this quality of
thinking andcommunication
inside your
organisation?
Contact Martin Geddes at
mail@martingeddes.com
mailto:mail@martingeddes.com?subject=Hypervoice%20presentation%20-%20follow-up%20inquirymailto:mail@martingeddes.com?subject=Hypervoice%20presentation%20-%20follow-up%20inquiry
top related