hypervoice keynote - annotated version

7/30/2019 Hypervoice Keynote - ANNOTATED VERSION

1/94

Martin Geddeswww.martingeddes.com

[email protected]

This presentation was given as the closing keynote at

Metaswitch Forum 2012 in Orlando, FL on 4th October 2012.

It solely contains the opinions of Martin Geddes,

and has not been endorsed by Metaswitch.

Nonetheless, many thanks to Metaswitch for the speaking

opportunity. Much appreciated.

2012 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd.

Do unto others


2/94

A presentation about

Hypervoice

Specifically, how voice joins the

constellation of web hypermedia,alongside text and images.


3/94

NOW

Past Future

The presentation

starts by looking at

the past of voice,then the future,

before returning to

the present.


4/94

Telco

CONFUSION

?

?Web

The present is very

confusing, because

we are seeing the

collision of two

conflicting sets of

values and ideas.

I am putting forward a

hypothesis as to what

emerges from thatconfusion.


5/94

Convergence Fragmentation

For telcos, there is increasing

dissonance between the

values, beliefs and behaviours

that made them successful,

and the current reality.


6/94

NOWThe emphasis on

interoperation, federation,

standards, vertical integration

doesnt fit with the reality offragmentation of voice.


7/94

POTSPSTN + PLMN +

Public SIP

Interconnect System+ Skype + Xbox +

Just a feature

of the Cloud,

Web and Apps

As is readily seen

from current

trends.


8/94


9/94

Telco

Lets start with the

trajectory of telcos.


10/94

PAST

And go back to

basics and the very

beginning.


11/94

What isvoice


12/94

This is both trivial and profound,

as talking at a distance is subtlydifferent in many ways to talking

to those physically present.


13/94

So, what doyou do for a

living?

We take this

everyday wonder forgranted. We

shouldnt! So next

time someone asks

you what you do


14/94

Work for thephone

company


15/94

So, what doyou do for a

living?

You can do better than that!


16/94

Networkequipment

vendor

Sorry, even less cool!


17/94

Illusionist!The correct answer is that you are

an illusionist.

You conjure up the ghostly voice of

someone from hundreds or

thousands of miles away, and trick

people into believing a real person

is present.

My Daddy is an ILLUSIONIST!

Whats yours?


18/94

Presence

This illusion has a name. It is

called cognitive absorption.

The guy on the left isnt falling

for the trickhes just rubbing

his ear with a lump of plastic.


19/94

Weve been performing this

trick for a long time. So long,

that voice and telephonyhave become virtually

synonymous.


20/94

When telephony was new,

phone companies had to

teach people what to say; a

new language of etiquette.


21/94


22/94

Telephony has anunconscious inner language,

a bit like a game of chess,

with standard opening

gambits, middle game and

endings.


23/94

This book from the mid

1990s studies hundreds of

calls and documents that

language.

A critical feature of

telephony is the power the

caller has over the caller;

both in choice of timing, and

the control of subject

matter when the call isanswered. There is an innate

social imbalance.


24/94

And all these features were

built in a very different era,for different users, with

different expectations, by a

very different kind of

ecosystem.


25/94

As an example, consider the

toll free number, introduced

by fiat under the old AT&T

long distance regime.

A ti i h


26/94

Assumes our time is cheapand calls are expensive

$telephonylabor

This implicitly assumescalls are expensive. After

all, what else would the

phone company desire!

A minute of labor cost

less than a minute of

long distance telephony.


27/94

Equalized between c.1982-2000

$ $telephonylabor

In c. 1982 you could

hire a college graduate

at parity per minute

with fixed-line long

distance calls.

By 2000, even a mobile

minute was cheaperthan hiring a high

school graduate for 60

seconds.


28/94

Today

telephonylabor

$Today, labor far exceeds

the cost of telephony. Itis our time that is

scarce, not our

machinery of talk.


29/94

Universal service

Emergency lifelineLegal intercept

Telco social contract

However, that system left behind

many critical social services and

systems that need to be preserved

as part of our society.


30/94

Service-centricTelco device

Telco access

Telco service

Network roaming

Plus an extraordinarily successful

system that has served to connect

billions of people around the

world. Hurrah for telcos!


31/94

PRESENTSo lets roll forward to

the present.

Telcos exist in co-opetition


32/94

Service-centric

Telco device

Telco access

Telco service

Network roaming

Experience-centric

Any combination of

device, access

and service*

Experience roaming

* Supported within any one ecosystem

Telcos exist in co opetition

with over the top (OTT)

players for services

revenue.


33/94

Corrosion


34/94

ARBITRAGE COMPETITION REGULATION

The three horsemen of thetelepocalypse


35/94

The temptation is to retreat to

an undergound safe place in

Nebraska.

This is not a good long-term

lifestyle choice.


36/94

Off-net apps are the newmobile coverage

CLOUD

ACCESSCOVERAGE

CLOUD

SERVICECOVERAGESo if you cant beat

them, join them.

However, the Internet cannot and never will carry


37/94

Service-centric

Telco device

Telco access

Telco service

Network roaming

Experience-centric

Any combination of

device, access

and service*

Experience roaming

* Supported within any one ecosystem

Product-centric

Mixture of telco and

3rd party devices,

access and services

?Which is giving rise toa hybrid model ofservice delivery.

societys real-time communications needs. It is

fundamentally unsuited to the job.


38/94

NGN Fixed

Recreating aVoIP PSTN

4G MobileVoice over LTE =Telephony over LTE

So telcos are left in a

groundhog day forever

re-creating telephony, rather

than moving forwards.


39/94

How do I do

cloud voiceSo the telco challenge is to

find a model of cloud voice

that works both technically

and economically.


40/94

Web

Lets go look at the parallel

evolution of the web and

hypermedia.

Again well go right back to


41/94

PAST

Again, we ll go right back to

the beginning.

h


42/94

What a computer is to me is its

the most remarkable tool thatweve ever come up with, and its

the equivalent of a

bicycle for our minds. Steve Jobs

Computer folk start with a differentmind-set. Networks arent about

telephones and telegraphs, but about

connecting computers.

Ideas


43/94

Ideas

And specifically, they see

computers as effort amplifiers

for spreading ideas.


44/94

doc doc

HYPERLINK 1.0

A PLACE METAPHOR

And as ideas naturally are

expressed via documents, these

are amplified via hyperlinks.

Documents

get URLs


45/94

Documents Homepages Blogs

Which gave rise to this world.(With blogs being a stepping

stone to the next phase of the

Webs evolution.)


46/94

Hypertext

WEB 1.0

MINIMAL IMPACT ON VOICESOME IMPACT ON FAX

So the first edition of the Web

was based on hypertext, and

had minimal impact on telcos

bar creating demand for dial-up

and broadband access.

E


47/94

doc event

HYPERLINK 2.0

A STREAM METAPHORThe world moved on. We came

up with a new metaphor. The

granularity of linking dropped.

We started recording and

pointing to individual events.

Events get

URLs


48/94

ImagesStatusupdates

@pointers#tags

Tags

There was an explosion of useand innovation based on this

new stream metaphor.


49/94

Social web

WEB 2.0

Which we gave a name to, as itamplified our ability to relate.


50/94

Hypermessaging

WEB 2.0

SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SMS

Because in retrospect we had

invented a new hypermedium.

Thoughts


51/94

Thoughts

Which amplified individual

thoughts.


52/94

PRESENT

So lets roll forward to the

present.

Add bi


53/94

Add new binary

medium to

browsers using a

place metaphor

Assume it just

works on the

Internet

Everyone will

figure out how to

use it

The web folk are just as stuck as

the telcos in accommodating

voice! Just in a different way.

With their current approach


54/94

being useful, but neither

necessary nor sufficient to make

voice a native of hypermedia.

This standard lets web browsers

send and receive real-time audio

and video.


55/94

How do I do

cloud voice

So the same question applies to the

web how to bring voice into our

integrated online experience, rather

than existing as a parallel universe.


56/94

Telco

Web

CONFUSION

And that is why we find ourselves in a

very confusing place.

So how can we resolve that confusion


57/94

FUTUREas we plunge into the future?

Cl d t t?


58/94

Cloud text?

HypertextA simple observation points the way.

Whilst we talk of cloud voice, we

dont talk of cloud text.

Its hypertext.

Cl d i ?


59/94

Cloud voice?

HypervoiceSo the resolution is to make voiceinto a native hypermedium, through

understanding its intrinsic linkingproperties.

VOICE WEB VOICE HYPERVOICE


60/94

VOICE,WEB VOICE, HYPERVOICE

That means transcending the limits of

web voice as currently conceived,

and instead moving to hypervoice.

HYPERVOICE


61/94

Links what we say

to what we do

HYPERVOICE


62/94

Just as we now routinely digitally

capture our words and images, we

will capture our voices. Voice need

no longer be ephemeral.

Memories Which makeshypervoice an


63/94

Memories hypervoice anamplifier for our

working memories.

Everything linked by time


64/94

Everything linked by timeNotes you take

Slides you show

Screens you share

Messages you send

Web pages you browse

Documents you open

Customer records you view

Sales opportunities you edit

Trouble tickets you close

WEB 3 0


65/94

Hypervoice

WEB 3.0

TRANSCENDS

TELEPHONY

HYPERLINK 3 0 Voice gestures


66/94

event event

HYPERLINK 3.0

A TEMPORAL METAPHOR

g

get URLs

The web gets a new linking

structure, one based on

time. Humans arent nearly

as intuitive at managing

temporal metaphors as they

are at spatial ones.


67/94

Magician!So hypervoice upgrades us

from illusionists to

magicians.

Daddy youre a

MAGICIAN too! How cool!


68/94

As we can time travel as

easily as we space travel.

Why should you care?


69/94

Why should you care?

Your 20th century

network voice product

has to compete against

21st century cloud rivals

Th big f t h


70/94

Three big future changes

1. User experience

2. Business model3. Network technology

For example, computers will help us to

d h h ll ill


71/94

rendezvous. The phone call will

become the offer or request.

Audio will be recorded locally as well

as send in real-time, given audio

make-up, and the pristine result


72/94

uploaded in perfect replica.



73/94


1.User experience

2.Business model3. Network technology

Just as the move from text to hypertext gave

rise to Google-like business models that

remove friction, hypervoice will enable new

disruptive revenue models


74/94

PUBLICENTERPRISES

disruptive revenue models.

The money will be in making ordinary,

everyday business interactions moreefficient, effective and secure

internally and externally.

Example: Fonolo


75/94

Example: Fonolo

An example today is Fonolo, whichenables hypervoice deep-links into

IVRs, using your smartphone.



76/94


1.User experience

2. Business model3.Network technology

Networks are just large distributed supercomputers; the wires and

radios are the processor interconnects. But you knew that anyway

DEDICATED NETWORK


77/94

Previously we have had

- the fixed/mobile voice networks

(effective and efficient, but inflexible)

- the Internet (efficient and flexible,

but ineffective for real-time)

Monoservice network


78/94

These are single class of

service networks. Kind of like

the networking equivalent of

black and white photography.

IMS + SBC WORLD


79/94

We are building a world that is

effective and flexible, if

somewhat inefficient.

These are the kinds of

technologies telcos use to

deliver voice services over

Internet Protocol

Monoservice overlays


80/94

y

We do this via isolating flows

using overlays.

So weve now got multiple

shades of sepia.

CLOUD WORLD


81/94

The future will require us tolearn how to multiplex

everything together much

better.

Polyservice networks


82/94

y

Which means multiple classes

of service; possibly even oneunique to every flow!

Kodachrome networks!

Effective Flexible Efficient


83/94

Because we will need all three

properties to deliver acompletely unified real-time

world of distributed

computing.


84/94

CLOSING THOUGHTS

WERE NEARLY DONE

Technological Revolutions &Financial Capital

Carlota Perez


85/94

Carlota Perez

Steam, Coal,

Iron, Railways

Electricity, Steel

& Heavy

Engineering

Oil, Petrochemicals

& Automobiles

IT & Telecoms

? Biotech,

Nanotech

1770 2012

The Turning Point Then a bubble andfinancial collapse,


86/94

Purpose-for-fitness Fitness-for-purpose

Each revolution has a

period of around 70

years where we work

out how stuff works.

Finally there is a golden age,

as society re-organisesaround the technology and

reaps the benefits.

social disorder.

Technology becomes

modular, reliable and

invisible.

Example: farms bought

one motor, and lots of

adapters.

Example: your

toothbrush has a

micro-motor.

Transistor in 1940s.

The Turning Point


87/94

Voice as

network serviceVoice as

cloud function

Voice becomes as invisible

and innate to your onlineexperience as the motor in

your toothbrush is to your

waking-up experience.

Packaged

Focuses on containing

failure modes of

applications. What

telcos have always


88/94

Telco

Web

CONFUSION

g

Cloud

Services

Libreville

telcos have always

done.

Experimental systems

that trial new successmodes. Even wilder

than the Internet is

today.

NOW


89/94

Past Future

Back to the

present

USF, ICC, PSTN transition?

Universal Service Fund, Inter-carrier Compensation, shutting down the old fixed network


90/94

Railroadsvs roadsThe railroad regulator

is out of business, the

railroads are not.

Same issues in 19th

century.

Roads changed the model, obsoleted these

issues. Our roads are internet, cloud, cognitiveradios, community networks.

The telecoms regulator largely exists

to perpetuate problems it was

invented to resolve a century ago.

Focus on the


91/94

Focus on the

customer

not the regulatorElse youll go downtogether.

What do you need to do?


92/94

1. Understand hypervoice future.

2. Get cloudyfor service delivery.

3. Buy network flexibility.

4. Import inventive services.

5. Export successful services.

Free newsletter


93/94

www.martingeddes.com

Free newsletter

New user experiences,

business models andnetwork technologies.
http://www.futureofcomms.com/http://www.futureofcomms.com/


94/94

Thank You

Need this quality of

thinking andcommunication

inside your

organisation?

Contact Martin Geddes at

[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]?subject=Hypervoice%20presentation%20-%20follow-up%20inquirymailto:[email protected]?subject=Hypervoice%20presentation%20-%20follow-up%20inquiry