how useful are findings of map for operational mesoscale model development? hans volkert institut fr...

How useful are findings of MAP for operational mesoscale model development? Hans Volkert Institut fr Physik der Atmosphre DLR-Oberpfaffenhofen Wessling, Germany with contributions of many MAPpers; acknowlegements as we go along How relevant are field campaigns for operational model development? Experiences from MAP 1) Micro-review: a century of modelling and campaigns 2) Fast recapitulation: The MAP special observing period (SOP) 7 Sept. to 15 Nov ) MAP meteorol. services: UKMO, DWD, MetCH, ZAMG, MtoF, ECMWF, (Env. Canada, US-Navy) 4) Some conclusions 1) Micro-review: a century of modelling and campaigns 1904 (-100 a): idea of physical modelling - analysis, prognosis Vilhelm Bjerknes 1954 (-50 a): quasi-operational tests on electronic computers in Sweden & USA 1974 (-30 a): GATE within GARP Atlantik Tropical Experiment GARP Global Atmospheric Research Programme (HV into meteorology) 1994 (-10 a): planning of MAP starts 1999 (-5 a): MAP-SOP: 7 Sep Nov. 2) Fast recapitulation: The MAP special observing period (SOP) 7 Sept. to 15 Nov Dry MAP: waves, drag, flux Wet MAP: microphysics, rain Scale / resolution in the Alpine region The 'truth' (500 m res.) MODIS: 02/02/ km 800 km 1994: DM with x = 14 km 2003: Meso-NH with x = 2 km 4 km 3 km Target Areas some observational tools: airborne and groundbased 'MAP bookshop': M.A.P. 72, articles on HERA QJRMS 588, articles on MAP-SOP HESS 7, articles on RAPHAEL & MAP-SOP Met. Z., 2004: 3 issues 14 MAP articles from ICAM-03 BAMS overviews, numerous other papers 3) MAP meteorol. services: UKMO, DWD, MetCH, ZAMG, MtoF, ECMWF, (Env. Canada, US-Navy) MM5 Mesoscale models developed/applied during MAP: ARPS multiple grid nesting; x down to 150 m LM UM Dry MAPUKMO mountain waves IOP-15, 8 Nov aircraft vs. Unified Model ref: Sam. Smith, QJRMS, 130, 2004 Falcon C-130 Electra Weigel et al. (ETH-Z, CH), AMS-MM Conf., 2004 Alpine boundary layer Andre Walser, Mon.Wea.Rev., 132, 2004 Predictability of convection/rain F West- ern Alps I CH I Po valley Andre Walser & Christoph Schr, J. Hydrology, 2004 Precipitation into catchments MC2 radar Water budgets: Jol Stein 2004, QJ, similar studies by R. Smith et al. Ligurian Sea Lac Leman Christian Keil & Claudia Cardinali, QJ, 130, 2004, in press Re-analysis at ECMWF (T319L50 vs. T511L60) Re-analysis at ECMWF (continued) case study for precipitation Re-analysis at ECMWF (continued) case study for upper level intrusion moisture DIAL RA CNTR Hydrol. modelling (P3): runoff from predicted precip. Roberto Ranzi atmosphere river recently: Grossi & Kouwen: 5 atm. mod. + 2 hydro. mod. = 10 exp. 4) Some conclusions simplistic picture of progress: higher spatial/temporal resolution > finer grids > better forecasts typical field campaign: SOP of several weeks IOPs of 1-2 d each domain/period of addid. data