How useful are findings of MAP for operational mesoscale model development? Hans Volkert Institut fr Physik der Atmosphre DLR-Oberpfaffenhofen Wessling, Germany with contributions of many MAPpers; acknowlegements as we go along How relevant are field campaigns for operational model development? Experiences from MAP 1) Micro-review: a century of modelling and campaigns 2) Fast recapitulation: The MAP special observing period (SOP) 7 Sept. to 15 Nov ) MAP meteorol. services: UKMO, DWD, MetCH, ZAMG, MtoF, ECMWF, (Env. Canada, US-Navy) 4) Some conclusions 1) Micro-review: a century of modelling and campaigns 1904 (-100 a): idea of physical modelling - analysis, prognosis Vilhelm Bjerknes 1954 (-50 a): quasi-operational tests on electronic computers in Sweden & USA 1974 (-30 a): GATE within GARP Atlantik Tropical Experiment GARP Global Atmospheric Research Programme (HV into meteorology) 1994 (-10 a): planning of MAP starts 1999 (-5 a): MAP-SOP: 7 Sep Nov. 2) Fast recapitulation: The MAP special observing period (SOP) 7 Sept. to 15 Nov Dry MAP: waves, drag, flux Wet MAP: microphysics, rain Scale / resolution in the Alpine region The 'truth' (500 m res.) MODIS: 02/02/ km 800 km 1994: DM with x = 14 km 2003: Meso-NH with x = 2 km 4 km 3 km Target Areas some observational tools: airborne and groundbased 'MAP bookshop': M.A.P. 72, articles on HERA QJRMS 588, articles on MAP-SOP HESS 7, articles on RAPHAEL & MAP-SOP Met. Z., 2004: 3 issues 14 MAP articles from ICAM-03 BAMS overviews, numerous other papers 3) MAP meteorol. services: UKMO, DWD, MetCH, ZAMG, MtoF, ECMWF, (Env. Canada, US-Navy) MM5 Mesoscale models developed/applied during MAP: ARPS multiple grid nesting; x down to 150 m LM UM Dry MAPUKMO mountain waves IOP-15, 8 Nov aircraft vs. Unified Model ref: Sam. Smith, QJRMS, 130, 2004 Falcon C-130 Electra Weigel et al. (ETH-Z, CH), AMS-MM Conf., 2004 Alpine boundary layer Andre Walser, Mon.Wea.Rev., 132, 2004 Predictability of convection/rain F West- ern Alps I CH I Po valley Andre Walser & Christoph Schr, J. Hydrology, 2004 Precipitation into catchments MC2 radar Water budgets: Jol Stein 2004, QJ, similar studies by R. Smith et al. Ligurian Sea Lac Leman Christian Keil & Claudia Cardinali, QJ, 130, 2004, in press Re-analysis at ECMWF (T319L50 vs. T511L60) Re-analysis at ECMWF (continued) case study for precipitation Re-analysis at ECMWF (continued) case study for upper level intrusion moisture DIAL RA CNTR Hydrol. modelling (P3): runoff from predicted precip. Roberto Ranzi atmosphere river recently: Grossi & Kouwen: 5 atm. mod. + 2 hydro. mod. = 10 exp. 4) Some conclusions simplistic picture of progress: higher spatial/temporal resolution > finer grids > better forecasts typical field campaign: SOP of several weeks IOPs of 1-2 d each domain/period of addid. data