how crowds can disrupt the old energy paradigm

HOW CROWDS COULD DISRUPT

THE OLD ENERGY PARADIGM

CSW Global 2015 Conference

Singapore, April 20-24, 2015

Dr. Carl M. Malbrain

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I will tell you a bit about the story of my life

Why I think we need a new energy model

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How crowds could disrupt the old paradigm

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And what we can learn from nature

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The old paradigm is all about central power

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Going over transmission & distribution lines

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To an ignorant, passive & addicted consumer

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As a child, I dreamed of free, abundant energy

Thinking nuclear (fusion) might be the answer

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Indeed 50 years ago, nuclear was disruptive

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But most nuclear dreams never really made it

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Mainly military deployed nuclear successfully

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My first academic disillusionment was fusion

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Then, fast breeder didn’t live up to the promise

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Achilles heels of nuclear lead me to quit

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Recent Fukushima disaster may be the end

Despite lower energy densities versus nuclear

Fuel to produce 1 MWh

4 g enriched Uranium

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Fossil fuels still rule the world by large (80%)

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I realized biofuels can’t replace coal, oil & gas

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Still hopeful as a lot of energy is being wasted

Transport

75%

wasted

Electricity

66%

wasted

Overall

>50%

wasted

Lighting

90%

wasted

Fossil

fuels

>80%

Bio-

mass

<5%

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Nu-

clear

<5%

But the rapid growth of developing countries

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0

1500

3000

4500

6000

7500

9000

2010 2030 2050

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2030 2050

Population, million Energy per person, toe

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2010 2030 2050

Total energy, Mtoe

Non-OECD World

-50%

OECD

X 2

+50%

X 3X 4

Calls for radical change in our energy model

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Club of Rome report: “Limits to growth”

To determine the new energy characteristics..

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I finally went back to my childhood dream

OLD PARADIGM

Few & centralized

At specific locations

Bigger, more expensive, more

distant

Extra transmission & distribution

Base load

Dual rates (peak & off-peak)

Separate producers & consumers

Big power lines;

Alternating Current (Georges

Westinghouse)

Supply management

NEW PARADIGM

Many & decentralized

Everywhere & ubiquitous

Smaller, cheaper, nearer

No transmission or distribution

Intermittent

Variable rates

So-called prosumers or

consuppliers

Wireless;

Direct Current (Thomas

Edison)

Demand management

Carl M. Malbrain ©

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Offshore wind still reinforces the old paradigm

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Only solar holds true promise of a disruption

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Costs of solar have spectacularly declined

1€/W

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Solar has only one major disadvantage

Requiring the need for storage to cover

DAILY VARIATIONS

Solar City (collaboration with

Tesla) home battery systems

SEASONAL VARIATIONS

Acta Power integrated

electrolyser-fuel cell system

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Paradigm shift opportunity for crowdsourcing

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Fo

r be

ne

fitF

or

pro

fit

Centralised / Global

Decentralised / Local

NETARCHIC CAPITALISM

Facebook

Google

GLOBAL COMMONS

Linux

Wikipedia

Arduino

Wikispeed

DISTRIBUTED CAPITAL

Bitcoin

P2P (peer-to-peer)

marketplaces

[Source: Michel Bauwens,

P2P Foundation]

LOCAL RESILIENCE

Car sharing

Yard sharing

Skill sharing

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First energy platforms are starting to emerge

Some projects were successfully crowdfunded

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A beautiful example is Solar Roadways

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Success on Indiegogo, but will it be feasible?

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What do I do now? Helping build communities

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FOR THE EMBETTERMENT OF MANKIND

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And give back power to the people!

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Post

Scriptum

Thank you for your attention

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Biography

Carl

Malbrain

With an engineering degree from the KULeuven, a

MSc in nuclear engineering and a PhD in energy

technology & policy from MIT, Carl has held senior

management positions in the energy, water &

environmental sectors for the last thirty (30) years

both in the U.S. and Europe

Currently, Carl is an independent consultant and

senior advisor, involved with start-ups in Belgium

and setting up a “energy for all” impact fund.

Carl is also exploring how alumni & social networks

could be deployed to help solve global problems we

face today, such as inequality, poverty & global debt

and to achieve energy, food, resource, economic,

financial & environmental security for all.

Carl is also President of the MIT Club of Belgium

and Chairman of Blijdorp, a non-profit organization

helping mentally and physically disabled children

and adults in Belgium and Romania.

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Mobile: +32 474 98 44 17

E-mail: carl.malbrain@pi-capital.be

carl.malbrain@alum.mit.edu