how crowds can disrupt the old energy paradigm
TRANSCRIPT
HOW CROWDS COULD DISRUPT
THE OLD ENERGY PARADIGM
CSW Global 2015 Conference
Singapore, April 20-24, 2015
Dr. Carl M. Malbrain
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I will tell you a bit about the story of my life
Why I think we need a new energy model
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How crowds could disrupt the old paradigm
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And what we can learn from nature
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The old paradigm is all about central power
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Going over transmission & distribution lines
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To an ignorant, passive & addicted consumer
•
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As a child, I dreamed of free, abundant energy
Thinking nuclear (fusion) might be the answer
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Indeed 50 years ago, nuclear was disruptive
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But most nuclear dreams never really made it
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Mainly military deployed nuclear successfully
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My first academic disillusionment was fusion
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Then, fast breeder didn’t live up to the promise
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Achilles heels of nuclear lead me to quit
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Recent Fukushima disaster may be the end
Despite lower energy densities versus nuclear
Fuel to produce 1 MWh
4 g enriched Uranium
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Fossil fuels still rule the world by large (80%)
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•
I realized biofuels can’t replace coal, oil & gas
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Still hopeful as a lot of energy is being wasted
Transport
75%
wasted
Electricity
66%
wasted
Overall
>50%
wasted
Lighting
90%
wasted
Fossil
fuels
>80%
Bio-
mass
<5%
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Nu-
clear
<5%
But the rapid growth of developing countries
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0
1500
3000
4500
6000
7500
9000
2010 2030 2050
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2030 2050
Population, million Energy per person, toe
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2010 2030 2050
Total energy, Mtoe
Non-OECD World
-50%
OECD
X 2
+50%
X 3X 4
Calls for radical change in our energy model
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Club of Rome report: “Limits to growth”
To determine the new energy characteristics..
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I finally went back to my childhood dream
OLD PARADIGM
Few & centralized
At specific locations
Bigger, more expensive, more
distant
Extra transmission & distribution
Base load
Dual rates (peak & off-peak)
Separate producers & consumers
Big power lines;
Alternating Current (Georges
Westinghouse)
Supply management
NEW PARADIGM
Many & decentralized
Everywhere & ubiquitous
Smaller, cheaper, nearer
No transmission or distribution
Intermittent
Variable rates
So-called prosumers or
consuppliers
Wireless;
Direct Current (Thomas
Edison)
Demand management
Carl M. Malbrain ©
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Offshore wind still reinforces the old paradigm
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Only solar holds true promise of a disruption
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Costs of solar have spectacularly declined
1€/W
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Solar has only one major disadvantage
Requiring the need for storage to cover
DAILY VARIATIONS
Solar City (collaboration with
Tesla) home battery systems
SEASONAL VARIATIONS
Acta Power integrated
electrolyser-fuel cell system
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Paradigm shift opportunity for crowdsourcing
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Fo
r be
ne
fitF
or
pro
fit
Centralised / Global
Decentralised / Local
NETARCHIC CAPITALISM
GLOBAL COMMONS
Linux
Wikipedia
Arduino
Wikispeed
DISTRIBUTED CAPITAL
Bitcoin
P2P (peer-to-peer)
marketplaces
[Source: Michel Bauwens,
P2P Foundation]
LOCAL RESILIENCE
Car sharing
Yard sharing
Skill sharing
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First energy platforms are starting to emerge
Some projects were successfully crowdfunded
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A beautiful example is Solar Roadways
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Success on Indiegogo, but will it be feasible?
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What do I do now? Helping build communities
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FOR THE EMBETTERMENT OF MANKIND
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And give back power to the people!
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Post
Scriptum
Thank you for your attention
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Biography
Carl
Malbrain
With an engineering degree from the KULeuven, a
MSc in nuclear engineering and a PhD in energy
technology & policy from MIT, Carl has held senior
management positions in the energy, water &
environmental sectors for the last thirty (30) years
both in the U.S. and Europe
Currently, Carl is an independent consultant and
senior advisor, involved with start-ups in Belgium
and setting up a “energy for all” impact fund.
Carl is also exploring how alumni & social networks
could be deployed to help solve global problems we
face today, such as inequality, poverty & global debt
and to achieve energy, food, resource, economic,
financial & environmental security for all.
Carl is also President of the MIT Club of Belgium
and Chairman of Blijdorp, a non-profit organization
helping mentally and physically disabled children
and adults in Belgium and Romania.
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Mobile: +32 474 98 44 17
E-mail: [email protected]